Hmmm.

I suspect that in fifty years the notion of a dominant nation will be considered a quaint old-fashioned concept. In 2057 I predict that the world will be divided into two interleaved entities. The first will be a tightly bound association of industrialized nations so dependent upon each other that a weakness in one will ripple through the entire system. The symbiosis between nation states in this entity will be so complete that the whole notion of dominance will be moot.

The second entity will be a background of underdeveloped nations in which ideological conflict, regional disputes, and religious feuds will create a dangerously unstable maelstrom. This entity will be ever pushing and probing into the first entity, which will seek to contain it.

I just hope America ends up in the first entity and not the second.

RDP, don't forget that the world of 50 years from now also will be a world of masses of refugees as the impoverished coastal areas go under water from global warming and the people have to go somewhere. Even those who are not impoverished will become impoverished, because you cannot very well sell land that is under water. At least, not at top-dollar prices.

That's a whole lot of resentful second-class citizenry with nothing to lose, and a whole lot of frustration.

On the good side, Baffin (Boffing) Island will become resort property. Invest now! North, to the future!

I'll be the first to jump totally off topic. I got an email the other day and checked out their website this morning.

http://www.brucespringsteen.net/news/index.html

Hopefully I will be in DC for veterans day.

I, too, think that the "dominant nation" and all-or-nothing theory models will become less relevant with the march of time. While it would be nice to think that democracy is an inevitable conclusion to the struggle for governance, that is turning out to require an extremely long-term viewpoint which must admit to lots of exceptions. Similarly, the clash of cultures isn't quite so dramatic and inexorable as it might seem. I think any any discussion of this type must admit that there are people of different cultures, sometimes in different nations and sometimes within the same nation, who at the very least must learn to live with others' sometimes diametrically opposed beliefs and systems. This learning process may be helped if all those persons are also involved in, and benefitting from, shared economic activity. If not, there will be conflict.

SciTim, thanks for your reply didn't mean to pick on you but put the question out to someone any one with moral issues over eating meat (I do not have them).

Are we not Rome?
We are Devo.

RD, you have a gift. Present any topic, and you digest the information, think about your position, then deliver two concise, well-written paragraphs stating your thoughts with a great conclusion. Well done.

I've been super busy and just lurking, but this drew me in albeit briefly.

The U.S. is Carthage, not Rome. Carthage was effectively a commercial empire whose "empire" was effectively a system of alliances, unlike Rome.

This is not to say that the U.S. will share Carthage's fate - my bet is the U.S. in 50 years. No other contender has shown the capability for reinvention and renewal that the U.S. and friends have. By the by, I was a business student in the 80s when Japan was supposedly ascendant.

Shout outs: Happy birthday to Ivansmom et al. Loomis, I submitted Capt. Justice and Lt. Posthumous (tho he lived) on that link. Mudge, loved the Northwest Passage history. CP, I tracked down that Liv Ullman movie.

Thank you Raysmom! That is so kind.

Raysmom, and RD does it without a single PP slide.

The whole PP thing made me think of this:

http://norvig.com/Gettysburg/

I have always loved this article, Joel.

I'd like to believe that we will all be one global brotherhood, but the cultural misunderstandings are going to keep us apart.

SoC,good point, but as a state becomes more reliant on its rules and regulations, as those rules and regulations cover more of the intimate details of a persons daily life, does it not ultimately lose it's capacity to reinvent itself?

Entirely different category of books, but book report time is nigh for the teens. A list of top 10 dystopian novels:
http://books.guardian.co.uk/top10s/top10/0,,2158312,00.html

Joel's versatility amazes me. Everything from Dominant Nations to science stuff.

Anyhow, my versatile guesses are

1. Chile should attract retiring Californians and encourage Argentina and Brazil to get a bit better organized.

2. China's growth rate has been badly exaggerated (someone explained it recently. Most Chinese still work on farms, and the farm economy isn't growing much. So if the purported growth figures are real, the cities aren't growing, they're exploding).

3. India somehow has a lot of marvelously educated people who fit right into the world of science and technology. Could they have the biggest and best pharmaceuticals industry in 50 years? The best medical schools? The best use of renewable energy?

4. Japan doesn't have enough children, but it's become an incredibly creative place.

5. Some of odd corners of Europe are flourishing. Estonia. Slovakia (who woulda thunk it?). May be life in the old Continent. But Europe mostly has crummy universities.

6. Britain actually has decent universities.

7. The Persian Gulf. Dubai and Bahrain are thinking post-petroleum. Provided they aren't taken over by Iran or Saudi Arabia, and don't self-destruct, could they be like Singapore?

8. Australia. About as many people as Florida, but seemingly a lot more brainpower, not to mention natural resources. The country's doing well at cultivating ties to southeast Asia.

9. Russia. Mess. Big mess.

10. North America. Face it, in many respects the US, Canadian, and Mexican economies are integrated and can't be disentangled. A lot depends on Mexico, which could grow as the American South did in the 1970s. The US seems to be heading toward most of the population sliding into low-income jobs while a relatively few break into highly skilled professions and the trust fund class expands. Lots of people will be flunkies for trustafarians and trustapreppies. Could Canada's different socioeconomics and tax policies make it a better place for science and tech than the US?

I don't know how far I would push that Carthage analogy. We still don't take the adolescents of the moneyed classes and make flaming sacrifice to Baal with their living flesh, in supplication for increased wealth. One could argue that we do this with the adolescents of the impoverished, however.

I am most concerned by the trend of outsourcing essential military actions to entities whose primary motivations are commercial. In other words, mercenaries. That has unpleasant antecedents.

Hey, GWE, I just love the expression on Steven Van Zandt's face in that pix.

Back to the topic, I tend to be in the Sam Huntington camp, and tend to agree with my colleague, the esteemed Dr. Padouk, in his 11:19. (I wouldn't use the words "quaint" or "old-fashioned" to describe the domination theory, since I think the potential always exists over time for some other country to become "dominant"; China, for instance, simply by virtue of its numbers.)

And I just instinctively disagree with the Fukuyama thesis that the world has somehow reached some sort of stasis, and the conditions he perceives as current arer necessarily stable and permanent. Ain't nothing permanent.

But I think neither Huntington nor Fukuyama (nor any other political theorist) has factored in what SciTim has pointed out, which is that global warming is going to play a major hand. The Huntington v. Fukuyama debate seems to me premised upon a stable and continuing climatological world in which their competing theories might play out, and one of them would win/be right and one would lose/be wrong.

But I don't think that's the case at all, as Tim says. It's only been the last few years that we've had enough scientists coalescing their thinking about global warming and what's going to happen 50 years from now, and I don't see any of their thinking yet penetrating into other fields of study (politics, international relations, economics, human psychology, culture and religion, etc.). That's going to take time.

Yes, we've got some futurists running around predicting things 50 years out, but I have approximately zero confidence in futurists, given their less-than-impeccable track record over the last hundred or so.

Among other things, I think there is one huge variable in Joel's question, which is we don't have any clue whatsoever how the United States (as the current "dominant" power) is going to react. Oh, yes, we all have "hopes" that we will "do something" about global warming--but what? How do we put the genie back in the bottle? Can that chore in fact even be done? Is it even possible? Or have we screwed ourselves past the recovery point? How do we re-freeze the glaciers and the icecaps? How do we stop the ocean from rising a foot or two (if indeed that's what's going to happen)?

All of which is why I think Fukuyama is "more" wrong than Huntington: because the world in the next 50 years isn't going to be stable in the manner Fukuyama's theory requires. In short, I think we're screwed, environmentally and ecologically. Yes, I think the Dems will take the White House in 2008--but even then I just don't see the U.S. *successfully* (emphasis on *sucessfully*) leading a massive international save-the-planet effort. Yes, there will be a lot of sturm-und-drang over it, but it'll be too little too late tooo diluted and not international enough. We ain't gonna turn China and India around, even if we become "Mr. Clean" overnight (and that's not gonna happen either).

So the upshot is I have a much, much bleaker view of the future than I did say, 30 years ago, when all I had to worry about was nuclear weapons (which I understood, and we had a handle on).

So that's the bad news. The good news is, I won't be around to see it, though a goodly number of you guys (and all our kids and grandkids) will. Sorry.

We're all on the cusp of a major change in history, and it ain't gonna be pleasant. May take a hundred or two hundred years to play out. But we're basically screwed.

(Oh, yes, we'll survive as a species, and all that. But it's gonna get nasty, that's all.)

What you said, RD. Your descriptors of the two interleaved worlds, however, ring true even as we post. It's not a stretch to characterize the U.S., the E.U., Japan, Canada and others that have adopted capitalism as an economic model, in whole or in part, as the industrialized complex. Disruption in one of these systems resonates throughout, to wit, the recent worldwide fluctuations of stock markets in response to the subprime mortgage debacle perpetuated on this side of the pond. Likewise, when China mentions revaluing the yen (or is it yuan?)the markets go wild. This confederation is like Wrigley: as the ivy goes, so go the Cubs. Whom, BTW, are in first by 2 games. The other side is , as you said, mired in war or the next best thing to it. Sometimes the conflict is internal, sometimes the conflict is imposed from without. This tends to foster development of fumdamentalist factions that, if they have the resources, will export at least a philosophy and sometimes the people to plant a violent seed in hopes of garnering more attention and additional adherents to the philosophy. The violence will be directed toward the industrial collective, viewed often, and correctly perhaps, as largely corrupt and/or morally and spiritually bankrupt. We're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Diplomacy is a means of beginnning down the path envisioned by Mr. Fukayama. Unfortunately, the U.S. lacks the leadership, at present, that is willing to engage belligerent of combative parties in a way that fosters development of peaceful coexistence. The world needs a few cleansing breaths and some leaders that would lead by example.

scc: Mr. Fukuyama. My apologies.

In 2057 my Disciples will descend upon the flooded cities foraging for Depends and copies of "Murder She Wrote."

huntington was very well-received in russia in the nineties among both conservative and liberal types. they were ready to hang the shock therapy folks, but by golly, huntington made some sense.

huntington may oversimplify, but imo fukuyama is way too idealistic.

Mudge et al are right about global warming. Fukuyama's theory depends on an otherwise stable situation. Huntington's does not so much, but does not take into acount clash of survival v. culture.

I also have trouble with the whole "end of history" idea. Hegel thought dialectics, and his theory, marked the end of history, and so did a lot of those other guys, before and after. Just because you've thought of or observed something doesn't mean that's the ultimate answer. This all reminds me of the Rousseau v. Hobbes debate. I always thought on practical grounds that Hobbes won.

Mudge,
Niall Ferguson has speculated about the return of food shortages. I should read "Colossus", his book on the decline of the US. His website has a Foreign Affairs article from 2005 comparing the eve of World War I to today. Not comfortable reading. Beware: pdf. http://www.niallferguson.org/publications/Sinking%20Globalization%20Foreign%20Affairs.pdf

Not editing or correcting or disagreeing here; simply commenting that our young people are exquisitely sensitive to the collective feelings or zeitgeist we invoke here.

They are so sensitive that they are overwhelmed and do not exercise their hard-wired tendency to try to remake the world into a better place.

I believe that at-risk youth, here and global-wide, are the canaries of cynicism, nihilism, and a jaded move toward consumption to ward off the anxiety.

I'm still working to make things better, College Parkian, cynical though I may be, and I try to emphasize this by word and deed. I agree that we can have sometimes unintentional influences on younger people. This is because they are too young to realize that you can view things through pessimistic (realistic?) glasses and still work for change. Unbridled optimism can be a curse. The perfect is the enemy of the good. All that sort of thing.

Yep, Cp. The curriculum, however, provides the tools the students are expected to learn to participate in the system in a way to effect change. Trouble is that, under today's rules, if you make your opinion known to the powers that be in the wrong way one is subject to all kinds of consequences for excercising basic first amendment rights. Like the song says:
Shine your shoes
Light your fuse
Can you use
them old US Blues?
Drink your health
Share your wealth
Run your life
Steal your wife

Did anyone see the TV news last night--NBC, I think it was--about the Putin youth camps? Gave me the creeps and the willies.

Joel asks, "Which country (or countries, or regional alliances, etc.) will be most dominant in 50 years?"

Madison Avenue, definitely Madison Avenue. What, you mean Madison Avenue isn't a country?

I have a vewwy gweat fwiend in Wome.

History Tim,

What, and you don't think Rome had a few quirky habits?

Broad strokes, man. My submission is that the U.S., to the extent that it is an empire, engages to the minimum degree necessary to ensure that its security and commercial interests are protected. That's very un-Roman. Empire-lite says Ignatieff, and Ferguson something similar (empire in denial?).

Byoolin, ha - speaking of antonyms.

SoC,
Posthumous--except he lived *l*

Perhaps a ScienceTim question:

Any chance that The March of Science(tm) might produce one or more developments in the next 50 years that will change the terms of the debate?

I guess I'm thinking mostly about molecular biology, medicine, computational and brain science.

I wonder about the ability to record the contents of the human brain and either to rewrite (possibly an edited version) or to simulate its functions in alternative hardware.

Then there's the question of really effective induced hibernation, which has all kinds of uses.

SCC aptonyms

SoC -- enjoy the film version of Kristen Lavransdattir. I have the VHS but need to hunt up the DVD so I can see the back material. Apparently, the set is now part of a Volksmuseum in Norge. I guess that a vacation to the Sel Valley is now on my list.

You know, I remember seeing an advertisement on TV during the 1970s or early 80s for a book that compared the US to Rome (complete with burning background), and warned that You Should Read This Book To Prepare For The End Of America.

Never did read it.
Or Dianetics either, which had a similar sort of TV ad in a similar time slot (very late night, typically during a Creature Feature or some such entertainment).

I remember a Fred Pohl novel "Black Star Rising" from the 80s that postulated an effective takoever of the US by China in the 21st century, FWIW. I'll look that one up, but it's difficult to argue against the huge effect that China already has on the world.

Another question, of course is not the rise of other classical nation-states to superpower status, but of ideologies and religions as political, military, economic, and cultural powers utilizing modern technological and scientific tools.

More later, this is good food for thought.

bc

Interesting timing here...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/30/AR2007083000995.html?hpid=topnews

Speaking of Fred Pohl (I'm thinking of "The Space Merchants" here), how about The Global Economy as the dominant superpower of the 21st century, with manipulation of market economics as a means of political governance.

Even nation-states and ideological groups need money to run and defend their countries and to provide their citizens/members the means to survive and to do the work of the community.

As so goes the money, so goes the nation-states and ideological/religious groups that depend on them (Afghanistan's poppy fields are a good example of a revenue source springing up to fill an economic void, and also providing a degree of political and security stability, even if it's not what we here in the US had in mind)

I'm far from the first to suggest that if you have some means of controlling Global and Regional economies, you have a means of controlling nation-states and other ideological/religious groups.

I wonder if Alan Greenspan ever considered himself an effective ruler of the world...?

Thinking out loud here.

bc

Thanks to JA for such a thought provoking question. As a scientist/bureaucrat I am often asked to identify the likely outcome of a perturbation of the natural environment. Because the world is chaotic and even the web of interractions during stasis is difficult to fully understand, my favorite answer to the question is that we should expect surprise from any perturbation. This expectation of surprise then should also be read into my answers.

As regards JA's first question - The USA is the worlds largest consumer in a global capitalist system. The current economic outlook for the US is downward in the near-term. Further, an economy dependent on continual debt/finance growth is rationally unsustainable. Thus, I believe it is unlikely that the US would continue to enjoy its current economic status over the next 50 years. This of course could change were the U.S. to become a significant producer in the global economy. Whether or not it does is highly dependent on leadership and culture. The dominant countries in the world 50 years from today are likely to be those which are most productive, either through industry or exploitation of natural resources. As the importance of the US dollar declines as a global reserve currency, look for eastern Asia (industry) and the Middle East (energy) to increase their dominance in the world economy.

However, the wildcards in the deck are staggering: global warming, population growth, militancy, and religious fundamentalism and how they may affect human affairs is simply staggering. They may, in fact, overwhelm the economic model described above. Drought and famine caused migrations may generate xenophobic resentments, economic disequilibria may generate class strife, and one or more diseases may become epidemic, again afflicting some groups and regions more than others. To me this suggests either cultural growth toward human unity or war, which prevails is unestimable.

Armeggedon is not outside the realm of the possible.

This type of discussion props up a lot in the US Blogosphere lately.
And it's partly due to the quagmire in Iraq. If the global super power can't beat some 3rd rate country then something is wrong and people try to find out what is happening to their society. Add a smidgen of economic panic and all of a sudden the US is Rome just before the Vandals plundered it. (Of course Rome also lost minor at the hight of it's power and didn't fall because of them.)

Today's news is as much a predictor of what will happen in the long run as todays weather is for the climate. All societies have ups and downs. At least we in the West have been able to make ours less extreme the last 60 years. (As an asside, the death of Europe isn't going to happen soon. Our societies are very vibrant, and as are our economies barring the relative little up and downs)

Here are my predictions which will be completely wrong except when they come true.

1. The "West" will still be one unit divided in 2 or 3 blocks.
One block will be the US, the other Europe as it is now and the third one smaller independant countries (e.g. canada, Mexico, Australia.)
The roles will stay the same. The US will be, or think itself to be the most dynamic partner.
Europe will be more understated as will those independant countries. But living standards will still be the highest in the world.

2. Europe will not become one country, nor will it fall appart. It has reached the limit of it's integration on a continental level. In this scheme smaler groupings will integrate for different reasons. This will overlap but not destroy the EU.
Europe won't be Eurabia either. But countries will be much more racially and culturally mixed as they were 50 years ago which is not a bad thing at all.

3. The Arab world will be devided in two. On the one hand the modernising regions like the Magreb and the Gulf states, on the other the backward facing ones like Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Jordan. Syria and Jordan will regress a lot compared to now because they will be sweped in the interminal regional conflict between the different tribes, religions.

Israel will be in trouble aswel because of the tensions between it's secular citizens and it's religious hardliners. But it will survive because of the help from the west, especialy the US.

4. Iran, having gotten parts of Iraq in it's sphere of influence will look towards the central Asian countries (The "Stans"). I think it will be ruled by a democraticaly elected gouvernement but with a shadow conservative power behind it. (this will be more like the "Moral majority" then it will be like the Mulla's)
Turkey will be good friends with Iran and will have forgotten about joining europe. Both will modernise even more and be closer to the West in standards of living.

5. China will be a big regional power, but less important than people think it wil be now. Same goes for India. As long as hundreds of millions of people are realy poor, a society can't advance as much because a lot of politial and economical power needs to be invested in keeping the masses quiet rather than in external expansion.

6. Russia will stay what it is, a semi democracy which won't reach it's full potential. Not poor, but not as rich as the west. It will try to ruffle the feathers of the neighbouring powers - Europe, Iran/turkey/China - once in a while but nothing much will happen. It's oil and gass riches will keep it afloat.

7. Africa will see the most improvement, In the next couple of decades all the local conflicts will be resolved one way or another, mostly due to ethnic cleansing and mass murder. This will creating less tangled thus culturaly "purer" societies. (I don't condone this, I just think it's happening and will continue for a while.)
After this period those peoples will demand better gouvernement and will finaly start to climb out of the abys.

8. South America will get richer aswel, again due to better gouvernance. It think a South American union (as tight or tighter than the EU) will exist since most of it's countries are linguistically and culturaly very similar. Maybe Mexico will be more attracted by that pole than by the US. Brazil will be the outsider, only because of it's language.

All in all I think people in the world will have it better. The earth will lose a lot of wilderniss. (e.g. Less Amazone and much less Central African forest) The climate might change, but people will adapt because they will be less dependant of having their food grown localy and technoligy will help a lot to.
Terrorism is here to stay. It's been with us from the start of civilisation under different guises anyway, but it won't be able to make a dent in the civilisations.

This all ends in 2058 when a comet strikes the earth.
Then cockroaches take over.

That's ET's 2 Eurocents.

OMG!!! Eurotrash!!! *crazed Grover waves*

What a great early birthday present to see ya! Stick around, willya?

:-)

Hey ET! Long time no see!

Hi Boodle

Happy Birthday Scotty. I'll try to keep in the loop, but it's very hard with the time difference.
And also many of joels kits are to American for me to coment on.
But I'll try.

Hi, Euro! Good to hear from you again! Interesting take on what the future of the Middle East may hold.

richD,
I think we may be undervaluing the US's production of goods, services, and expertise. Regrettably, we're discouraging tourists, international meetings, students, and highly-skilled workers from coming just when they are most necessary to our future. Already Panama is serving as an alternative to Miami while Canada and Australia are taking advantage of opportunities to be like the US, but more open.

On the down side, the long-awaited dollar crash might be underway.

There are unpredictable, and terrible, opportunities for violence and conflict. Niall Ferguson compares Taiwan to Belgium and North Korea to Serbia of 1914, with nukes. I assume that China will gain effective control of Taiwan through coercion and co-option, but a military confrontation with the US is entirely possible.

Subsaharan Africa at first glance looks like a calamity, what with the unending Congo war, Somalia, Darfur, Zimbabwe, AIDS, bad or nonexistent governments, etc. Yet there's a lot of good going on.
http://www.africancrops.net/

regarding the Gonzales link

Gonzales announced Monday that he was quitting the Justice Department after seven months of sustained conflict with Congress over the prosecutor dismissals and other issues. He told aides that he had decided his credibility with lawmakers had been too severely damaged to continue in the job.

Ummm, why did it take 7 months for him to figure out his credibility was ruined.

Welcome back Eurotrash.

As bringing scifi writers into the discussion has been made respectable by bc I direct your attention to Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy with its interplay of technology, sociology, and political economy (political science? hah!). If we change the terraforming of Mars to the homoforming of Earth I beleive my jiggered analogy suggests that Sufi/ecologist terrorists will bring down a Space Elevator seperating the countries of the earth along the equator resulting in a senario perfectly agreeing with "The Amazing Padouk's" prediction.

Too bad the president doesn't name Senator Craig's replacement. I've heard that Minnesotans love Scotty dogs. Senator Barney has a nice ring.

Euro! Good to hear from you! Hope all is well with you.

Certainly there is much to trouble us about the future. But is that any different than it ever has been? I'm doing my best to recycle/save energy/vote for candidates who will do the right thing for the future. I hope we can muddle through.

Hey, Euro! How's things in beautiful downtown Belgium? I mentioned you about a month ago, wondering where ya been. Hope everything's well.

This Kit is sure generating a lot of interesting discussion. Thanks, richD, and howdy Eurotrash! Good to hear from you!

Euro, good to see you. Nice analysis.

So much thought provoking reading but I must confess, I feel a deep need to buy legumes.

Euro, great to hear from you. I'll try to de-Americanize some of the kits in the near future. In fact there's probably a software program that will do that.

Bonjour Euro -- great to see you in print again. We were all scratching our collective boodle-heads wondering where you'd gone.

Now, I've gotta go. HBTY to S'nuke.

Interesting discussion today. Thanks, everyone. Hi Eurotrash.

Heading out soon for a long weekend with Mom. Yes, the Mom with the honey-do list and no internet. See you Tuesday-ish and happy birthday, Scotty!

I think there is a way to begin the study of what things may look like in 50 years, but it is incredibly cross-departmental.

1) Get some geologists and other enviro experts, and try to draw a map of the earth as it is mostly likely to look 50 years from now, given rising sea level. Not necessarily a best case or a worst case, but perhaps a consensus most likely case. I think this has to be the start line.

2) After this map is in hand, economists and those of that persuasion need to study the map and see what the economic effects have been. Is Florida underwater? If so, where did all those people go? Are there new cities built further inland? Have Boston and New York been flooded out? Do they still exists as viable habitats or not? Has the San Andreas Fault dropped California into the sea? and is Arizona now the West Coast? What farmland has been lost (or in the case of northern climes, gained)? It seems to me if these basic questions can't be answered, then all the rest of it is silly. Are conditions *basically* the same as they are now -- or significantly different?

3. Then go back and do all the same work predicting these things at 75 years and at 100 years, in order to determine a trend line. If sea level has risen 18 inches in 50 years, that data isn't useful unless we also know which way it is trending. Is that 18 inches the *likely* maximum sea level rise--or do we believe it's only about halfway? Because how human society reacts to the perceived trend is more important. It doesn't help to know that only half of Florida is lost, unless you also know whether you're going to lose the whole thing or not. So a snapshot of the year 2057 isn't as important as a trend line report. Is it going to get worse, or has it stabilized? (Or, I suppose, I guess it is possible the trend could reverse, but I have no expertise on this possibility.)

We also have to think about the rest of the planet. It's one to predict doom and gloom about Florida going under; but any future predictions have to also account for, say, India going under, too. Perhaps the Ganges and the Yangtze will flood even worse than the Mississippi. Maybe the entire Amazon basin will be under water. Whatever; the point is to not be America-centric about it, and to consider effects globally.

4. As I see it, only AFTER one has completed all this kind of preliminary work can political scientists and theorists enter the picture and begin to think about the consequences.

And as somebody said, remember the wildcards. Seismologists have been telling us for years a major, major quake is overdue on the West Coast. Well, suppose they are right? What's the worst that could happen, and how would the country look then? Suppose the New Madrid fault goes instead--or maybe in addition to. Either you take all those dire predictions seriously -- or you don't. All I'm saying is, either way you take those predictions, they have major consequences on futurology.

Maybe not much will happen over 50 or 100 years--in which case the Huntington vs. Fukuyama theories have a chance to play out.

In a particularly dark mood, one might imagine the development within only the next 10-20 years of the ability to construct a viable virus from scratch, with designer properties.

Downside: horrific genocide, collapse of civilization and economies, no retirement support even for those who survive.

Upside: Cheap housing, cheap (used) sailboats with which to cope with the residual effects of global warming, no more population pressure for resources, eliminate deforestation, we certainly can't be held responsible for desertification, recovering fish stocks.

Let's face it, once the surviving 5% of humanity gets over the horror and the suicidal depression, it will be a new Eden. Get your fig leaves now!

Interesting you pick geology Mudge, I was on the CBC website today and they are promoting a new series about several North American/Canadian geological areas. Looks quite interesting, if you do not have access to the shows (CBC in Sept. they website is quite detailed).

http://www.cbc.ca/geologic/eg_great_lakes.html

Fifty years from now I hope our sense of humour/common sense has not eroded anymore. Saw two articles this week one about tag being banned in a school district as it caused to much stress in the school yard and then this story. I thought this a clever and very funny prank - lighten up people, not necessarily boodle members however.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20514895/

PS I believe we have stated the Canadian intention before to rule the world :-)

Oh dmd, sure bring that up. I'm actually still "it" from a game of tag in 1977. Consider yourselves warned.

Horribly off-topic, but I saw this article and thought of Cassandra:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/motorracing/la-sp-rock30aug30,1,1505275.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-autoracing&ctrack=1&cset=true

In 50 years, the north and south magnetic poles will be reversed. (This is not a joke.)

I should note that the ability already exists to construct a virus (remember the recovery of the 1918 Influenza virus). This is still paint-by-numbers, or kit-bashing (combining parts from several plastic model kits), not yet at the level of designer pathogens. Thank goodness.

More cheerful thoughts from the genetic front: the problem with imagining a genetically "improved" humanity or any other species is that it's hard to figure out the undesirable consequences of your "desirable" modifications (plus that whole ethical debate about tweaking the construction of people). That's where evolution comes in. An unscrupulous person might craft viruses that are nominally harmless but that tweak genetics a bit, promoting a surge of genetic modifications. Massive infertility would follow, as most mutations are nonviable (goodbye, over-population), but a few will survive. Evolution in a hurry. Throw in a few modified predators -- say, flying mountain lions with a slightly increased reproduction rate -- and you can really get human evolution moving along. Better yet, make some winged caimans, and you'll have real dragons in the world. Wouldn't that be great (if you survive)?

The technologies are readily envisionable (I just coined that word!) to make a world in which you would pine away for the good old days when nuclear war, global warming, international terrorism, and cancer caused by pollution were the only things you really needed to worry about. International terrorists may be unpleasant, but at least they don't eat you.

Tim, don't make a prediction like that at the dinner table with children present. I did and my sister almost took my head off. Perhaps I shouldn't have said that a huge human die off would be a good thing.

Cheap sailboats, Tim? Sign me up! That's MY kinda armageddon.

(I'd like a 60-footer if ya got one. Does this work like Priceline? Can I just offer, oh, 500 bucks for it?)

(Two masted, please.)

(I don't actually need a full-blown Tiki bar on the fantail, but if it had one, I wouldn't pitch it overboard.)

This discussion is getting really interesting - are we back to the giant raptors? - but I must leave you for birthday activities. I look forward to seeing where this goes when I catch up. Carry on!

The problem with everyone singing "Happy Birthday" to Ivansmom is that the best singer in the room (by a country mile, too, I have no doubt) is the only one who has to keep silent.

Have a happy one, anyway, IM.

'Mudge: I'd have to look for the link again, but the geologic modelling you speak of is in the USGS site. There are maps generated through computer models that show the US coastlines some 25-50 years hence. Thus, one of the pieces is already in place. The demographers and economists now must pick up the ball and begin some long range planning. I hope you run for the bus finds you dry when you finally are seated.

"Flying mountain lions with a slightly increased reproduction rate', ScienceTim?

This from a physicist who presumably knows aerodynamics?

My money is on hyperbreeding flock-hunting city sparrows with a craving for human flesh that incubate and pass 100 known lethal diseases by bird poop.

Cue Hitchcock music.

Thanks for sharing the STORY behind the video!

While prison programs for training service dogs are popular, I don't think there is adequate opportunity for socializing the dogs to boost confidence and life experience.

This is particularly crucial for any dog that must make independent decisions without guidance. The difference in Wilbrodog right out of the shelter and two months later in confidence level was quite marked. It's possible that Mary Jane would never have been confident enough to be a guide dog, though.

The energy level IS an issue. Wilbrodog was marked as an high energy dog when I got him.

Ideally, dog and person should be able to move together at a comfortable gait, so energy-matching is important, as well as general gait speed.

Fortunately I walk fast, but I don't run fast enough for him to move at a lope. It'd take a tall runner to do so.

It took us a while before I taught him how to trot and found the correct, slow jog that would get him trotting comfortably without itching to move into a lope instead.

I'm glad those dogs are having good jobs that allow them to use up energy and be very doggy on duty. That'll be a good life for them. Search and Rescue is also a very good life for a dog, but takes amazing time and commitment on the part of the handler.

Wilbrod, I've looked at fostering prison dogs, and even considering adopting one when, you know, but I worry that they might have separation anxiety. Going from full-time person to one who works all day makes me wonder.

What is the rate of recidivism among prison dogs? Do some of them have prison jobs, like in the movie Pawshank Redemption?

Hello, friends. It took me so long to get here. This computer is slowly, but surely going the way of the trash heap. I can't even pull up my emails.

Hello, eurotrash, so good to hear from you again.

Happy Birthday, Ivansmom. May you have many more or at least at many as you would like. Enjoy your day, and evening.

My two cents worth on JA's topic.

I believe the world will eventually get to the place where only the essentials will become "gold". I believe mankind will always have the traits of killing and treating each other bad. Yet I also believe that certain variables will come on the scene and change what used to be important(money, stocks, etc.) to just the basics ( air, liveable land, food, etc.). And even in this man will act toward his fellowman as the first two brothers did. I am probably more of a doomsday person, but I believe change will take place, but not the change that so many are looking for. I've always believed that one can have all the money in the world, but if one cannot live in that world, what good is the money. And when I say live, I mean, exist with the necessaries, have those things. Air, food, water,and a place to live, these are necessaries, right? Oh, how important they will become, as they are already, but even more so in the future that I see. These will become the "gold" of the future. I see an island, small island, the only liveable place on the planet, and millions of people or more like billions of people. You get the drift.

I am going to try and pull up the other kit, and my email. Might not be able to do that. If you don't hear from me in awhile, you know the deal.

Have a good evening, folks.

God loves us so much more than we can imagine through Him that died for all, Jesus Christ.

A good reason not to smoke around kids-- do you want grandchildren?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070830/hl_nm/miscarriage_risk_dc

And Mudge, I honestly don't know about puppy prison records-- I believe they're sealed and buried.

Good to know, Wilbrod, thanks.

(I wonder if they get time off for good behavior? Do they have Kibbles-and-Bits riots in the cafeteria? And how do you make somebody your b1tch when they are already, well, a b1tch? And can they play the harmonica when it gets lonely at night?)

Naw, they're ripped to shreds and scattered over the carpet! Surely you're seen *Brubarker.*

Got Emma a hard ball that has a voice chip that's motion activated. Kind of like Wii for a dog. I can see her losing those extra few #s fast, she loves it so much.

Everybody set your secret decoder rings to Mac instead of Google. I goofed, TGB's got it right so start from your latest messages.

DbG, can you send me the info on that ball? Is it really good for extra-hard chewers? Wilbrodog loves his quacky duck, and I routinely have him find and retrieve a kitchen timer I hide all over the place-- for treats.

And Mudge, when Wilbrodog got out of prison-- ahem, the shelter, he tried to make a male bichon frise his B1tch. Given that his belly was twice as high as the frise, he promptly tried to hunker down, pretty funny-looking.

The bichon frise snapped at him and relocated- he thought he was going to be laid on, no doubt. Now he's more civilized those days.

But male dogs are certainly.... embarrassing.

I don't expect national borders to remain fixed for fifty years, so that twist on the outlook complicates a forecast of what will be the leading/ascendant block.

With the USA, the southwest will split away to join with Mexico and central America. Alaska will consolidate with B.C., Alberta, together with Washington state, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, to form a block with strong trading and cultural ties to Asia. East of the Mississippi will remain statutory America along with the plains states which will not be in contention.

The major global blocks will be Russia along with eastern European groups brought back into control by economic intimidation, central Asia excepting India (which will link with southern Africa), and Japan which will capitulate to partner directly with China. America's stressed structure will reduce her ranking compared to strategically cleverer groups.

Technology will be important in determining the balance of power. Russia's vast resources (not to overlook her water resources in Lake Baikal) will experience huge gains in wealth and prestige so long as she can develop the technology to defend herself, lacking the population base to protect herself with conventional means. China will have leverage through financial and industrial-policy means to economically occupy and politically direct the vestigial portions of the USA that it targets. South America will become an economic colony of China (with Japan). Africa will balance its support between China/Japan and India, and will have little to do with a sunken western Europe or a shrunken USA. Scandinavia will keep a level of independent civilization by passively appeasing any threats.

I just hope Canada annexes Mexico for a vacation spot.

You think in terms of nations and people. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no west. There is only one holistic system of systems. One vast and interwoven, interactive, multinational dominion of dollars. There is no America. There is no democracy. There's only IBM, and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow and Union Carbide. Those are the nations of the world today. - Network

Jumper,

If none of these things exist, explain to me who gets my taxes?

Wilbrod,

I think eastern Canada will move sympathies across the ocean to an alignment with western Europe, and obviously with France. Whatever vacation and property rights a European may have in Mexico and central and south America will likely also be respected for Canada. Canada's cultural defiance of America will be played out as a trump card for her, not too much unlike Cuba and its Soviet Union association.

No, no no, why would we annexe Mexico when we will have already taken you over?

I keep tellin' ya.

I don't know what technological innovation, or climate changes, will throw all our predictions for 2057 off-but one or more surely will. Beyond that, the entity (nation, union, company, religion) that figures out how to handle (perhaps exploit) failed states, finds a way to benefit from all of Africa's untapped potential, and looks beyond oil to solving the water problem, will be top dog.

frostbitten,

Good thumbnail summary. Lacks detail, but very cogent in the main.

As an eastern/central Canadian I am a little perplexed at the link with Western Europe. I would rather just take the whole Carribean area but would be OK with Mexico and Central America.

Cultural defiance of the US???

But Wilbrod -- I *like* mountain lions. We just need to figure out how to modify ribs to form a wing surface, and create hollow low-density bones; increase lung capacity and efficiency; reshape the body a bit; modify the tail for use as a rudder; increase the efficiency of the intestines; and we could have a giant flying cat! Woo-hoo! And the world shall be its litterbox.

I dunno, maybe the flying caimans would be a better bet. Or carnivorous super-pigeons.

dmd,

I suppose Canada could put in its bid for the Carribean area; and that could be very good so long as they do not cherry-pick and take up the Haitian liability as part of the total arrangement. Go for it; it gets my approval.

Cultural defiance: Media restrictions, smuggled tobacco products from tribal groups, denial of anti-missile systems testing over Canada (for which they would obviously benefit), non-resident taxation on investment income derived from Canada, a history of cheap-shot personal insults from the minister level against the U.S. president, trade and support for Communist Cuba, resistance to basic passport and ID requirements for border crossings, immigration policies welcoming and subsidizing radical Islamists into North America, occasional actions hinting that Canada wants to sell its gas and oil elsewhere. With some time, the list could be expanded tenfold.

On the Plantation, I will only say that is why we are an independant nation.

Today the Turks and Caicos, tomorrow the world. BWAAAHAAHAA
http://www.canadiancontent.net/commtr/article_676.html

Boko I suggest we warm up on St. Pierre and Miqhelon, it is close, a few row boats, some beer, ice wine should just about do it. Providing the fog lifts long enough for the crossing.

SCC Miquelon

If Canada annexes Turks and Caicos, then I want them to take Texas, too. Dimmit, fair's fair.

Oh, and thanks for the birthday wishes for my daughter and the g-girl. They said thanks also.

And when I talk about the g-girl, I always think of Nani. I hope she is okay, and we still miss her wonderful stories.

Happy Birthday to any that I have missed in August. We've had a lot of birthdays this month. The more, the merrier.

Good night, boodle. Sweet dreams.

dmd,

Personally, I completely support Canada's independence and its fair competition in the realm of products and ideas, and have no animus towards Canada's responsible pursuits defined in her own way.

However, at a certain critical points in the bigger global stage, we each as societies must ask whether the relationship is working to make us both stronger rather than weaker.

No doubt the English-speaking western hemisphere is being tested. Any loss of practical cooperation in the effort to keep all of us individually free and independent, as is our hard won legacy, is bad policy. But that said, bad policy is the current policy under the global dynamics we have in operation. Rectifying this is going to take a very capable generation.

You would have to ante up big for us to take Texas Mudge.

On the Plantation I would suggest our viewpoints are too drastically different to have a reasonable conversation about this. I for one do not feel "Western Civiliation" is being tested.

Do it our way or else is not a solution.

I disagree dmd. Western Civilization is being tested and, IMO, we're failing badly.
That we've allowed ourselves to be spooked into seeing terrorists under every bed and to toss away some of the civil liberities our grandparents and parents sacrificed so much for makes me want to cry.
The neocons wailing that we must abuse and kill in a "War of Civilizations" aren't tough, they're moral and physical cowards.

I was thinking of "western civiliation" being tested from outside not inside :-)

dmd,

Your mentality is very revealing, remarking that ". . . viewpoints are too drastically different to have a reasonable conversation . . .."

Why are you here? Nothing factual to add. Just objection to a viewpoint plainly laid out, but that you do not want to consider; plus putting words never said into another's mouth.

I think I got my previous strategic analysis wrong. Canada is too simple-minded to be a reliable performer.

Folks, one thing you're all forgetting - The Rapture in 2012! You need to take that retirement money to gun shows.

At least that's what my neighbor says.

Ok dmd. But boy, I feel better.
Mmmmm. dmd's mentality.

Yo Overseer, you're gonna love Yoki

Is the the latest revision to the Rapture date Error!

Boko... that was a good one! (your 8:54)

Happy birthday to Scottynuke! And to everyone else I've missed in the last couple of days. Man, lots of August birthdays in Achenblogland. I'll add one of my own - my mom's 90th birthday is tomorrow. Best wishes to you all.

Great to see you, Eurotrash! I hope you can drop by again. It's nice to get your perspective.

Boko... you have many good ones! I was just especially loving your 8:54.

I take On the Plantation's point. We share a very long unprotected border. If we are to deal sensibly with threats, we must cooperate on many fronts. Otherwise, it's going to be nasty.

This has nothing to do with self-determination, and a lot to do with listening to each other about potential issues for our mutal self-interest.

Maybe you misunderstood what he was getting at. Ben Franklin said "we must all hang together, or we will indeed all hang separately."

He also said "Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty." And, he was a diplomat, scientist, economist, postmaster, librarian, and spy, so he did know what he was talking about.

Alas, it's all too apparent that our present administration has no clue what they're talking about.

On the Plantation, if you choose to denigrate my mental state or intelligence - go ahead. However the other 31,999,999 Canadians do not deserve to be lumped with me, each are unique and hold their own opinions, as for intelligence most I know are highly intelligent and the ones that are on this boodle - are the best of the best, just like all the other boodlers.

Boko, you made me snort Tom Collins all over my keyboard. You've got a lot to answer for.

And. Oh. My. God. The Redskins have scored a touchdown in the first quarter in preseason. And then they scored another one in the second half. That hasn't happened in Redskins preseason since...oh, jeez, back in 1873, when the Bladensburg Redskins did it to the Taneytown Steelers.

(Jags just scored and now lead 17-14 in the third, but I don't mind. I was just so shell-shocked by that first quarter touchdown, I think I had an attack of the vapors. Of course, I was leaning over my Tom Collins, so the vapors in question might have been Bombay Sapphire rising up, I'm not sure.)

Mudge, my husbands favorite baseball team is the O's, his football team the Redskins - he likes to say it has been a tough few decades. We still have the front page of the paper from the season the O's opened at 0-28 (or 30). He is loyal though I will give him that.

That was funny, Boko! You too, Error.

I think Mudge has got the right idea. All of this *end of the world as we know it* calls for Bombay Sapphire. Thank goodness it's Thursday.

When Ben Franklin said/wrote that the USA was involved in an "exsitential conflict." We (NATO and friends) certainly are not in one now. The only people exploiting that idea are the neocons and the religious right.
The best defence against extremists of any sort is "Peace, Order, and Good Government"(the competent police and military come under good government).

Mudge, I'm trying to backboodle to find that great quote about editors you posted once, about how editors after a while have no concept whatsoever about quality, they just are so sick of the job. (loose paraphrase...)

You said you had it posted above your desk. Any more clues I could use to find the quote?

"No doubt the English-speaking western hemisphere is being tested."

Where are italics when you need them? Sez it all, and 'nuf said.

Wilbrod, it's John Gardner, from the "Publication and Survival" chapter of "On Becoming a Novelist": "One should fight like the devil the temptation to think well of editors. They are all, without exception - at least some of the
time, incompetent or crazy. By the nature of their profession they read too much, with the result that they grow jaded and cannot recognize talent though it dances in front of their eyes."

The quote can be found on the Internet in a dozen places, but most stop after the first sentence. I found it here http://www.ibiblio.org/copyed/Stepp.html in Stepp's piece on copyeditors (which he and I both think should be one word, though we're outvoted).

Of course, there's always this little gem from Edna Buchanan, the Miami Herald's Pulitzer-winning police reporter: "To entrust to an editor a story over which you have labored and to which your name and reputation are attached can be like sending your daughter off for an evening with Ted Bundy."

OTP should speak for him or herself, but I'm getting the impression his/her general point is that Canada should be doing all the listening.

Planning for the 21st century global diaspora has already begun with threatened nations in Oceania scouting for relocation sites. The melt rates of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets will establish the timing of the crisis, but it will be early in places like Bangladesh and the FSM. The highly populous low-lying coastal areas of every nation will experience massive inland migrations. Trees on the Florida coast began moving inland over 20 years ago; people will eventually follow.

9:35 was me, of course.

Shiloh! Shiloh's back! This is like Old Home Week!

*bursting into tears and running into the bedroom*

Sometimes I'm just so emotional.

Boko999-- those words still ring true.

The U.S. broke off from Great Britian's control not because of existentalism, but because of a perception that the government was unresponsive and disconnected from the colonies, seeing them only as cows to be milked for taxes. Governors were appointed by the King and often had no concept whatsoever of local issues. The colonists were denied a voice in Parliament.

In addition, people were expected to quarter military personnel in their homes, no choice in the matter. Property could be impounded for government purposes. So garrisoning of redcoats in the colonies created a lot of resentment. Citizens could be arrested without trials.

Those issues are not very different from the infringments on liberties being taken (or could be taken) for the sake of "homeland security."

So I'll say Ben Franklin is right-- keep an eye out to safeguard basic liberty whenever you're proposing changing things. That leads to good government.

And the quotation about hanging together was at the signing of the declaration of Independence, an act that could have gotten them all hanged as traitors by the British.

Now, those "founding fathers" certainly disagreed with each other on many matters. But they did agree on this point-- they had to make things work somehow.

The problem with "Peace, order, and Good Government" is that it is poorly defined. A totalitarian government can easily adopt this slogan while squelching all dissent with draconian laws and allowing millions to starve into submission.

After all, if a government keeps everything orderly, it's GOOD. Right?

frostbitten,

My present headache comes from listening too attentively.

dmd,

For you to know, "denigrate" is a term I never use.

For our Pastafarian bretheren, FSM refers to the Federated States of Micronesia and not the Flying Spaghetti Monster. Thanks for the hysterics, Cur.

De nada, Shiloh. It was probably the gin talking.

How ya been?

*Faxing Mudge a few Snoopy hugs from Wilbrodog*

Thanks! I love Gardner's comment about editors reading too much on the job, that's what makes it resonate perfectly.

After all that reading of poor writing, ones' brain does start to rot and trickle out of the ears.
(Why do you think I'm deaf? Just take a gander at what passes for writing in scientific journals.)

pj, my sister's birthday is tomorrow too. Happy Birthday to your mom - 90!

Nice to see Eurotrash after such a long absence.

I have to admit I'm not following the topic discussion - a thousand apologies.

The American Rebellion (hee,hee) was an "existential conflict" in the sense of without victory the aims of the colonists, Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness, would be snuffed out.
"Peace, Order, and Good Government" is from our Constitution and is as properly vague as "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness."

And I know that Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness is from the DoI

Thanks for that clarification, Shiloh. I'm so ignorant of geography, and that didn't make sense.

Mudge, the Buchanan quote made me LOL. With me, it wasn't editors, it was my bosses trying to change what I had written. People who can't write simple declarative sentences should not be promoted to the executive level.

Fair to middling, Cur, and it's nice to see you up and about after your two recent crises, medical and natal. The gin cures all.

And on that Epicurian note I bid you all a goodnight.
Sorry Mudge.

Anybody else having trouble with the sound going out on the Redskins game? Because there have been big patches of silence...which is actually bliss, since I don't have to listen to Joe Theisman.

Skins are getting their butts kicked, gave up 31 points so far, but it's cool; they're playing the 7th string. I think Wally Cox is in at middle linebacker, and Truman Capote is the nose guard.

For a little while there, I thought that perhaps FSM meant Former Soviet Marina.

Frisky Soccer Moms?

Freedom Space Module - the last resort for a drowning planet.

I can't quite recall, but I believe Dante had nine rings of hell. If I am not mistaken, Satan is opening, with great fanfare I might add, a tenth so that Theismann and Tim McCarver can spend eternity driving each other crazy with their drivel.

BTW, there will be no 2057; when Cheney assumes power by coup in 2009 he will launch full thermal nuclear war in order to secure the conservative vote. I mean, an active guy like that can only sit on the sidelines so long.

>Folks, one thing you're all forgetting - The Rapture in 2012! You need to take that retirement money to gun shows.

oh, now i get it. you buy a gun in case you don't make it out (as in up) with the first group.

Frequently Strained Metaphor

Thanks for the welcome back's I got.

To JA: I didn't mean the "To american for me to comment on" remark as a critique. You write for the Washington Post, not for Le Temps. And I'm just a guest on your site.

But if should you do want to use a software filter to golobalise the kits. I'd use the "Soccer-fy Me (TM)" Word add-on for all American Football/ Baseball references.

*even-earlier-than-usual-and-off-to-the-airport Grover waves*

I'm not sure how, but I think I'll be able to survive the next few days sans Boodle. Hope everyone has a wonderful Labor Day weekend!

:-)

Sure, we're Rome!
Not only has the US reached the point of falling apart from the inside out while the barbarians assail it from without, but Bush is Caligula, and thousands of GOP officals and appointees are horses named Incitatus.

There's no question that CHINA will be running the show in 50 years.

'Morning, Boodle. Scotty, viya con airbag, and remember to put the tray table in a full upright position.

Happy Friday, everybody! Snuke, have a good time on your trip!

What are folks doing for the long weekend? We are headed to the mountains at lunchtime, natch. It's been a couple of weeks, so I'm looking forward to see if the mums I planted survived, and to check how many yellow jacket nests we can discover (and nuke).

Good Morning All, did anyone see the moon last night so bright, I actually went to see if I left an outside light on the light was so bright.

Slyness, Scotty have a great weekend, plans here are to stay at home for a change and attend the Ribfest in town.

Slyness thought of you this morning as I read a story about a local firefighters funeral, he died while at a Fire Extraction Competition in Indianapolis (heart attack?), very sad story. A little more ironic is that they apparently won the competition.

There is no reason to believe the dominant nation theory will sink into oblivion over the next fifty years. There's no reason to believe the United States can maintain dominance the way it's going. The foundation for dominance is wealth; and the United States, by every measure of wealth, is rapidly loosing world leadership. It is an open question whether China will replace it within the next fifty years, but the propabilites are great. U.S debt is systemic and frightening. Chinese financial wealth is growing rapidly, and is nearing a strangle hold over the U.S. economy. The loss of the U.S. manufacturing base undermines substantive values in the U.S. economy. It diminishes the technical capacities on which an advance industrial nation depends. And above all, the increasing failure of the American educational system and of most male Americans to desire learning, will ultimately lead to the deprivation of capacities for leadership. We have already seen the effects of that deprivation over the last seven years.

2057: Planet of the Texan Spiders?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/31/us/31spider.html?ref=us

I know I'm worried.

A mostly quiet weekend ahead, recuperating from the last few, catching up with chores and naps. However, S'nuke may not have a totally free Boodle-related weekend. ;-)

Happy Friday everyone!

'morning all.
These guys spent 60 days on a birch bark canoe trip. For those who know Ottawa they landed in the back of the National Archives, climbed the stairs to Wellington St. then "portaged" Sparks St. to the Canal (this is a World Heritage canal, not a water filled ditch this one). I saw and smelled them on Sparks St. Don't need to be a well trained canine with a delicately attuned nose to trail them I'm telling you. Sounds like a good trip though.
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=170cee39-a997-4ce9-bcb4-c3678a29cb35&k=90829

Jumper, re. your 6:57 last night, you should definitely read some SF from the second half of the 20th century. The corporate govenment model seems like the social order for about half of the SF novels written during that period, including the entire cyberpunk movement.

bill everything, you *did* notice that my blog site is called the 10thcircle, didn't you? (Though we have a plan to keep Thiesmann and McCarver out). On that note, I will be posting something there a little later today in celebration of Karl Rove's last day on the job.

Listened to the first half of the Washington NFL franchise preseason game on the radio. Seems like Campbell played well for the short time he was in, but it's difficult to tell how effective he's going to be given that the first team offense was playing against Jacksonville's 2nd team D. I'd *hope* that they could march down the field and score easily. We'll see next week, won't we?

Nice to see you, Eurotrash and Shiloh.

bc

When Joe Thiesmann QBed the Toronto Argonauts we didn't have to listen to him so I can't judge what his commentary is like but considering that he led the WRS to a Super Bowl victory and you guys portray yourselves as fans of said team I'm thinking he must be really awful at his new job.
Is he too inarticulate for your rarefied taste (you naughty word mavens you) or are his observations inane/vacuous?

Oops, I almost forgot. Happy Birthday!

Good morning, Boodle, and very happy birthday s'nuke.

Haven't had time to backBoodle, and now prolly won't. Hope to catch up with you sometime over the weekend. Happy Friday to you all.

Verbal diarrhea best describes Joe "Rhymes with Heisman" Theisman's media prescence. Locals are addicted to the radio geezer-homers Jurgenson and Huff and generally don't listen to the TV gabblers whoever they may be. The R's prospects are not great this year. Respectability may be the most they can aspire to, although the early schedule is weak and weighted with home games, so 3-1 is a possibility after five weeks. I'd say 6-10 or 7-9 should be about right for the season, but with a few key injuries they could go 5-11 again with ease.

Samuel P. Huntington wrote "The Clash of Cultures and the Remaking of World Order" in 1996. Since then, he has penned two other works: "Culture Matters: How Values Shape Human Progress" in 2000 and "Who are We?: The Challenges to America's National Identity" in 2004.

In the latter work, Huntington lays out, in his concluding chapter, three possible scenarios for the future of the United States--three broad concepts of America in relation to the rest of the world:

Cosmopolitan: Americans can embrace the world by opening the country to other people and cultures. This involves a renewal of trends dominating pre-Sept. 11 America--an open society with open borders, encouraging subnational ethnic, racial, and cultural identities, dual citizenship, diasporas, and led by elites who increasingly identify with global institutions, norms, and rules rather than national ones.

Imperial: America can try to reshape those other peoples and cultures in terms of American values. The imperial impulse is fueled by beliefs in the supremacy of American power and the universality of American values. America's power, it's argued, far exceeds that of other individual nations, and hence America has the responsibility to create order and confront evil throughout the world. According to universalist beleif, the people of other societies have basically the same values as Americans, or if they do not have them they want to have them, or if they do not want to have them, they misjudge what is good for their society and Americans have the responsibility to persuade them or induce them to embrace the universalist values that America espouses. (Sound familiar?) In such a world, America loses its identity as a nation and becomes the dominant component of a supranational empire.

National: Maintain American society and culture distinct from those of other people. A national approach would recognize and accept what distinguishes America from those societies. America cannot become the world and still be America. Other people canot become American and still be themselves. America is different, and that difference is defined in large part by its Anglo-Protestant culture and its religiosity. Nationalism is devoted to the preservation and enhancement of those qualities that have defined America since its founding. Americans are overwhelmingly Christian, which distinguished them from most non-Western peoples, and their religiosity leads Americans to see the world in terms of good and evil to a much greater extent than others do. The leaders of other societies often find this religiosity not only extraordinary but also exasperating for the deep moralism it engenders in the consideration of political, economic, and social issues.

How does Huntington end this book?

"Significant elements of American elites are favorably disposed to America becoming a cosmopolitan society. Other elites wish it to assume an imperial role. The ovrwhelming bulk of the American people are committed to a national alternative and preserving and strengthening the American identity that has existed for centures. America becomes the world. The world becomes America. America remains America. Cosmopolitan? Imperial? National? The choices Americans make will shape their future as a a nation and the future of the world."

This frames many of the arguments in the last 24 hours on this Kit. Food for thought on Friday morning.

As for the future, I also think of AIDS getting a toehold in India, China, Russia, as it continues to devastate Africa.

Aids in India is a disaster waiting to happen. With an estimated 5.1 million people living with AIDS and the virus that causes it, India currently ranks just after South Africa in logging the world's highest number of infections. However, the number of Indian cases per capita remains relatively low, with an estimated 0.4 percent to 1.3 percent of adults infected so far. Unfortunately aside from the usual addicts and sex workers, the highest rate of infection is among the country's 8 million truck drivers, who are rapidly spreading the disease over the subcontinent. For an interesting peek into the utterly unglamorous world of sex for sale in Calcutta, I recommend the documentary "Born Into Brothels."

Speaking of truck drivers, k-guy, this graf from Ruth Marcus' WaPo op-ed this morning:

Still, you don't have to be a Republican politician in a conservative state to feel locked in the closet. Former New Jersey governor James McGreevey, a Democrat in a far more hospitable state, describes how he was so convinced that coming out would end his political career that he "settled for the detached anonymity of bookstores and rest stops."

Since Mudge was the first to mention these truckstop trysts along the interstate, I'm wondering how he knows about them? (I'm not impugning anything, by the way.) I learned of them by thumbing Dr. Abraham Verghese's book (he of San Antonio's UT Health Science Center for now a very short time before his career move to Stanford) about his work with HIV/AIDS patients in Tennessee. Or is this common knowledge among men?

In a completely diffent vein, Shiloh was on the Boodle last night. I know of his background with comparative religions. Wonder if the Yazidis are on his radar screen? The Yazidis the subject of a recent Tom Friedman column at the NYT and also tackled by WaPo's Dan Froomkin, since the group was in the news in early August.

Why does the rest of Virginia think we Northern Va residents are rich snobs? Maybe because this is the stuff the WaPo sends to our NoVa inboxes...

"Friday is your last chance of the year to taste those "dream creams" they've been putting out at the Ritz-Carlton every Friday for the past month. Come on, who doesn't love an ice cream party! Especially with the hotel's pastry chef concocting six flavors of homemade goodness, plus 12 toppings to complete your frozen fantasy. The last licks of summer should always be this sweet. Chilled Chocolate Friday is from 7 to 10 p.m. at the Ritz Carlton, 1150 22nd St. NW, 202-835-0500. The cost is $25."

Twenty-five dollars? For ice cream?

I agree TBG. That is why I have instructed my man-servant Reginald to promptly dispose of such elitist mailings.

Suddenly the Five Dollar Milkshake ala "Pulp Fiction" doesn't sound quite so outlandish.

A Rigged Report on U.S. Voting?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/29/AR2007082901928.html

HHS Toned Down Breast-Feeding Ads
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/29/AR2007082901928.html
Business as usual.

Howdy y'all. Thanks for the Huntington recap, Loomis. By the way, if Maryland is anything like Oklahoma, Mudge knew about the prevalence of interstate truckstop trysts (hetero and homosexual) if he watches the local news. That is a perennial story here, particularly good for sweeps week.

RD, it would almost be worth a trip to Dallas to see that spider web. Almost. [Really, nothing justifies a trip to Dallas except the importuning of close family members whom one eventually cannot reject). Here it is the Time of the Giant Spiders. We don't go out after dusk, even to take up the trash, because the Giant Spiders take over. At least we won't get West Nile virus.

About Joe Theisman... my mom used to say "Yeah, he's a glassbowl, but he's OUR glassbowl."

Gotta love him.

The article about the Bush administration watering-down breast-feeding promotion is followed by this aptonymic tag:

"Staff researcher Madonna Lebling contributed to this report."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/30/AR2007083002198_pf.html

Here is a way-cool fifty year prediction made by a science writer for the New York Times. Good stuff.

http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2006/10/05/miracles-youll-see-in-the-next-fifty-years/?Qwd=./PopularMechanics/2-1950/next_fifty_years&Qif=next_fifty_years_00.jpg&Qiv=thumbs&Qis=XL#qdig

I'm probably a day late and a dollar short with this link.

Don't mess with Texas...

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/31/us/31spider.html

Re. Political appointees watering down breastfeding ads and directing personnel to ignore positive reports.

Apart from the pressure of the Infant Formula industry, I suspect they think that babies fed chemical slop by robots make more and better Republicans.

Boko: I read the rigged voting report piece last night while all of the rest of you were whooping it up. I could hear the racket all the way down here. The procedure described that produced the final drafts of the report seem to be SOP for the administration. This time, at least, the process is on the record for all to see. Unfortunately, the same thing is happening to the GAO report regarding progress of the Iraqi government toward the benchmark goals set by Congress.

Why does the rest of Virginia think we Northern Va residents are rich snobs? Probably because no matter how much of our tax revenue they take to fund their schools and roads, we seem to always make more. Don't get me started.

There's another article about the Justice Dept. probing Gonzalas. The question that leaps to my mind is, "Can this Justice Dept. be counted on to give him a proper probiing?"

Speaking of Texas, I think Karl Rove's heading there this evening, after his last day at the White House.

Well, *a* Texas anyway.

I wrote something about Rove's retirement Hole on the Range in my blog today:

http://www.10thcircle.com/10/?p=195

bc

RD, that was great. The eating sawdust bit came true at least!

Interesting that the article declined to predict a "circumnavigation of the moon" by 2000.

Ivansmom is right, Loomis--roadside rest stops have been in the news off and on for years (if not decades) as the object of stings and vice squad stakeouts, etc. IIRC, there was one such stop mentioned tangentially because our infamous sniper was arrested at a rest stop near an infamous one up on (IIRC) I-270 north of DC. (Plus I'm an old police beat reporter from way back, remember? One of the very first homicdes I ever covered as a rookie back in the late 60s/early 70s was a gay homicide, the Chase-Mears murder case. A prominent Bucks County (Pa) dentist picked up an AWOL Army soldier in Philly, took him to the dentist's summer cabin (the dentist was married, but the way), did the deed a couple times, and in the course of the weekend the Army kid shot and killed the dentist. During the course of the investigation and subsequent trial, we reporters--indeed, much of Bucks County--learned all sorts of eye-opening things we never knew about, including the fact that the dentist's wife, also a prominet person and [I swear I am not making this up] also an oral surgeon, was a sometime lesbian who also had various weekend affairs of her own. And they had two kids. And this whole secret life/subculture. Lemme tell ya, ya gotta do a lot to shock Bucks County [the novel "The Devil in Bucks County" was at the time well known, and kind of our local "Peyton Place" expose] but this murder sure did. During the trial, Chase (who entered a guilty plea) had to tell the court exactly what happened, and in some detail the various sex act he and the doctor did. You knew saw six newspaper reporters --some veterans -- sit there and NOT take one single word of notes during the whole recitation; I'm not even sure we *understood* all of what he was talking about. You have to understand this was about 1970 and the context of those times. At one point Chase used a word that starts with "corn..." and the judge broke in and said, excuse me? I don't know that word. So he made Chase spell it and then define it, which he reluctantly did. Chase was this poor, pathetic 18- or 19-year-old semi male prostitute kid who somehow got into the Army (this was the height of Vietnam) and couldn't hack it (I imagine he was treated pretty miserably) and went AWOL from (again I swear I'm not making this up, and am reluctant even to report it, except that it's the truth, and as reporters we had to deal with it) from Fort Dix.

It was just a sordid, sordid mess from beginning to end, but I learned a lot--most of which I probably would have been quite happy not to know. I suppose the biggest lesson was that there are all sorts of things going on around us all the time about which we are completely unaware, and that people have all sorts of secret lives that most of us never see. (Well, nowadays we see it all the time on "Law and Order" and CSI, etc. But back then we didn't. There may have been 8 million stories in the Naked City, but they were all pretty conventional back then.)

SCC: double link post; RD was first. I just knew that the spider link was already posted. And I even read the post in queastion. Geek.

"Justice Dept. Probes Whether Gonzales Lied"

Also on tap for this weekend, reports on activities in other federal agencies: "NOAA Investigates Whether Water Is Wet" and "EPA Determines That Sky is Blue, Usually".

Except in Los Angeles, of course.

BTW - the Modern Mechanixs site in general is a lot of fun

http://blog.modernmechanix.com/

The