On to Guam!!!
[Cross-posted to The Trail.]
Get ready for Guam.
Circle the date on your calendar, book your flight. On May 3, Guam - which increasingly looks like the New Hampshire of the Mariana Islands - will hold its presidential primary, with nine Democratic delegates at stake.
True, that's not a lot of delegates, but every delegate counts as this point, and Guam is the first primary after the Super Tuesday III vote in Portentous Pennsylvania.
Will candidates actually go to Guam, you ask, rather than concentrate on the much larger states of Indiana and North Carolina that vote just three days later, on May 6? Obviously the answer is that they should, because the flights can stop in Hawaii for much needed R&R and big-wave surfing.
I'd also venture that the Guam contest, being located on an island, will serve as a harbinger of the too-critical-for-words mindblower of a primary on June 7 in Puerto Rico.
That will be the final showdown in this epic barnburner of a slugfest of a donnybrook. Don't scoff at Puerto Rico: It is putting 63 delegates up for grabs, which, in case you've misplaced your delegate tracker, is more than the number of delegates that were at stake in Iowa.
Or New Hampshire.
Or South Carolina.
And more than were at stake in, let's see, Connecticut, New Mexico, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Maine, Nebraska, Utah, Kansas, Idaho, Delaware, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Vermont, Kentucky, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, Alaska, Alabama and the District of Columbia.
So, on to Puerto Rico!
On Expedia I'm showing a non-stop leaving tomorrow from Dulles to San Juan for just $389 round-trip (return Monday) on the unfortunately named airline Ted.
By |
March 5, 2008; 11:30 AM ET
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Posted by: L.A. lurker | March 5, 2008 11:49 AM
joel, funny kit. hope you do get a nice trip to a warm locale out of this extended race.
Posted by: L.A. lurker | March 5, 2008 11:51 AM
First? D'oh! super slow dialup.I for one am Happy the the West by god primary in May will still mean something. Plus I like Hill.
Posted by: greenwithenvy | March 5, 2008 11:54 AM
Repost from the moon kit:
Here's a site that claims:
"The average distance between Earth and Moon is approximately 30 times Earth's diameter."
Just using my thumb, it seems like the moon in that picture is about 10-12 Earth diameters away. This would indicate that the moon is either ahead or behind the Earth by 60 degrees or so. A picture with them both in the frame that close would happen about half the time. The real trick is getting the phase of the Earth/Moon combo sufficiently photogenic since that has to do with the position of Mars relative to the Earth.
Since Earth is nearly double the diameter of Mars, it would appear four times as big as Mars dies to us. The Earth's albedo is also much lower than Mars and is closer to the Sun, so Earth is much brighter in Mars's sky than vice versa.
That pointy-headed enough? And I don't even deal with space on a professional basis.
Sources:
http://www.freemars.org/jeff/planets/Luna/Luna.htm
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/marsfact.html
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 11:58 AM
Joel,
After sending you to Minneconsakota in February, WaPo owes you one. I say you need to get there a few weeks early to absorb some local color and really get the lay of the land, the cut of their jib, and other assorted cliches.
Talk WaPo into sending along that cub photography stringer they paired you up with in New Hampshire. I bet she could use the practice taking shots of beachfront palm trees at sunset.
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 12:05 PM
And when and where does that Weingarten not-a-blog take place?
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 12:06 PM
Well I went ahead and took some measurements.
Earth Diameter is ~7926 miles at the equator and ~7901 miles over the poles. The moon has a diameter of ~2160 miles.
The distance between the two is ~237780 miles.
In the photo the earth is ~17 mm. The moon is ~4mm (to me that puts the moon closer to the camera than the earth).
And the distance between the two is ~125mm.
I'm tired from two nights of 4AM insomnia, and currently have a headache. Somebody else will have to do the math.
Posted by: omni | March 5, 2008 12:18 PM
I think the answer to the earth/moon parallax question lies in the fact that the folks at Industrial Light & Magic didn't have a studio deep enough to take the photo properly, and so they moved the moon prop way closer to earth than they should have. (Hey, if Marion Cottillard can say it, why can't I?)
yello, the GW not-a-blog starts tomorrow, he said.
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 12:19 PM
I wonder if we could get away with calling the Weingarten thing a "Boodlenope"?
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 12:21 PM
Here's an image that was created to show the proper dimensions & distance of the Earth/Moon pair.
http://www.traipse.com/earth_and_moon/index.html
Posted by: Bob S. | March 5, 2008 12:22 PM
Or, you could just come to North Carolina. Our primary's May 6th. Who knows, we could decide the nomination yet!
Posted by: Liz Donovan | March 5, 2008 12:24 PM
No matter what they tell you, Joel, do not go to Guam.
Posted by: nellie | March 5, 2008 12:25 PM
Like, Joel and Ted's Excellent Adventure.
Posted by: jack | March 5, 2008 12:25 PM
Follow-up on omni's research:
Earth-Moon diameter ratio
Space: 3.66
Photo: 4.25 (~16% off, CEFGW)
Moon Orbit-Earth Diameter ratio
Space: 30
Picture: 7.35 (clear foreshortening)
I just needed an excuse to whip out my trusty HP-48G.
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 12:41 PM
yello, Ithink you need to have your thumb examined. The earth is only a little over twice as big as Mars.
And I need a better metric converter. The Moon's diam is ~1080 miles. Mars that is ~2110.
I have no idea where I came up with 2160. I blame it on the insomnia. And the headache.
But I think the math still holds up and the Moon is closer to the camera than the Earth is.
Posted by: omni | March 5, 2008 12:42 PM
I love that photo in the link by Bob S. Though I think the moon is too small in that one - should be approx. 1/4 Earth's diamter.
My own measurements of the apparent diameter ratios (I have the benefit of being able to close a door, which is nice in these circumstances) is that the apparent ratio is actually very close to the actual ratio. So there's a perspective issue going on as well in terms of the distance from Earth the photo was taken.
Posted by: SonofCarl | March 5, 2008 12:46 PM
I would also add that not only does the Earth, Moon, and Mars relative positions matter for this type of photo, all of their positions relative to the Sun matters, too.
If you waited until Earth and Mars were at their closest point, the Sun would be on the other side of both, and you'd only see the dark sides of the Earth and Moon.
So you need to make sure that E & M are lit by the Sun, and as close to Mars as possible, which is how that photo appears to be.
I suppose one *could* use God's Own Flash Attachement and take a photo of the dark sides of the Earth and Moon (with the Sun in the background), but you'd have to set the timer on the camera shutter for about 4 minutes after you triggered the flash.
I won't venture to guess where you'd find the SPF 1,000,0000,000 you'd need to wear operating that Flash Unit (though with the marginal atmosphere and magnetic fields on Mars, the Martian CVSs probably carry sunblock all year round), or the havoc one might cause on Earth with a short term midnight sun.
I am highly amused at the thought of Puerto Rico being the most important primary of all - the one that *really* matters - after all the fuss, gyrations and general nonsense that states made trying to make sure their Primaries and Caucuses came *early* this year.
bc
Posted by: bc | March 5, 2008 12:48 PM
Ha, yello, got some new numbers up there for you. Me I'm using a solar powered Casio HS-4A
Posted by: omni | March 5, 2008 12:48 PM
omni,
1.88 times the diameter
3.5 times the surface area
6.6 times the volume
9.3 times the mass
Pick your measure.
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 12:51 PM
Is this along the lines of "great taste, less filling"? Or is it more like where they say half the calories, but forget to mention that also means 70% less taste?
I get so confused.
Posted by: LostInThought | March 5, 2008 12:55 PM
Sorry yello, I misread your post, you did indeed say twice the diam. Stilling blaming the you know what. I wish I could crawl under my desk and take a nap.
Posted by: omni | March 5, 2008 12:57 PM
And since Guam and Puerto Rico have a combined electoral college vote of zero, the point of having primaries there is...?
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 1:00 PM
The military people here call Guam the poor man's Hawaii. They all dread being posted in Guam. If you're going there, best to go now before hurricane season.
Posted by: Aloha | March 5, 2008 1:00 PM
Sorry, guys, but you can't solve this problem with just the information you've supplied so far. First, the moon is closer to the viewer than the earth...but it is also offset to the right, so we aren't viewing them straight ahead. So the first problem is to calculate the angle of offset that would produce the appearance of the moon in its circular orbit having such-and-such a lesser apparent diameter than the earth. Then, having done that, you have to solve the overall distance taking the earth as one triangle (with its diameter as the short side) and the moon as a second, closer triangle (with its diameter as the short side) such that the ratio of the two short sides of the two triangles is exactly that of the perceived ratio of the difference in their sizes. Having computed this, you will almost certainly find that the distance from the two objects to Mars is much closer than the true distance. From this you can compute the ratio of true distance to calculated distance, which will give you the magnification of the camera.
There. (whew)
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 1:05 PM
Omni, sorry your feeling so bad dude,It's a shame you don't have a desk like George had in that Sienfeld episode.
Posted by: greenwithenvy | March 5, 2008 1:09 PM
And you said that all without using the word "triangulate" or even mentioning sextants, Mudge.
Posted by: Wilbrod | March 5, 2008 1:11 PM
Yellojkt--because they're U.S. Citizens and it's nice to give them a taste of US democracy even if they're not taken seriously?
Posted by: Wilbrod | March 5, 2008 1:13 PM
But Mudge I thought the question was since the appear closer to eachother than actual which is closer to the camera to give this appearance. Or did my sleep deprived brain miss something. Or are you just messin with my sleep deprived brain.
Oi, I'm takin a short break for a walk around the block
Posted by: omni | March 5, 2008 1:14 PM
The picture does reinforce my long held notion that the Earth/Moon combo needs to be considered a double planet rather than a planet/moon pair. Only Pluto/Charon are closer in size.
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 1:14 PM
That's because, back in my day, Wilbrod, all we had was the astrolab, and reading bird entrails. And none of could spell "Chipango" worth a darn. (Although the earth being flat was a big help, I have to admit. Everything went to he11 when they proved it was round. I told them they were making a big mistake, but would they listen? Hah! So if people don't like all that Mercator longitude and latitude stuff, they only have themselves to blame. Bird entrails were sooooo much easier.)
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 1:16 PM
"because they're U.S. Citizens and it's nice to give them a taste of US democracy even if they're not taken seriously"
Hey, just like the residents of D.C.!
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 1:17 PM
Its lovely that Puerto Rico and Gaum primaries will matter. As a life long watcher of Canadina federal elections, there is nothing like turning on the tv, at 8 pm and hearing the words, elected, as if what votes you send don't count.
Just saying its nice for them to know that primary or presidentail election, their votes matter in a down to the wire kind of way.
Joel, go to Guam. When else can you ever expense it?
Posted by: dr | March 5, 2008 1:28 PM
SCC Canadian, and probably others,
Faxing some headache meds to omni, and taking some myself. Its hard to type when the world is moving and blurring before my very eyes.
Posted by: dr | March 5, 2008 1:29 PM
'Mudge took a picture of himself mooning the Earth? With a triangle? Was the photo blue-shifted? What???
:-)
Posted by: Scottynuke | March 5, 2008 1:33 PM
Thanks dr, I have plenty of meds. I'm just not allowed to drink them at work. One hour and thiry minutes to go. Unfortunately, that's then time for my commute. Screaming shouting roughhousing highschoolers on an 8 minute train ride followed by an overcrowded standing room only ten minute bus ride.
Posted by: omni | March 5, 2008 1:35 PM
Since the distance from Mars to Earth and moon is so large compared to the distance between Earth and moon, I will dismiss it from my calculations. That's just the kind of guy I am.
Posted by: Jumper | March 5, 2008 1:38 PM
SCTV Cast Reunion ! (only for a charity though...)
http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/article/309426
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow...
"Ottawa takes the cake this time," said Environment Canada meteorologist Geoff Coulson. The capital received 22 centimetres overnight and that number could climb to 35 in what's now the second snowiest winter in Ottawa's history. " That will be 14 in. in the past 24 hrs.
This long winter is getting people pretty shack wacky around here. Soon I won't be the only one going around mumbling imprecations while shaking my fists at the sky.
Posted by: shrieking "snowblower" denizen | March 5, 2008 1:49 PM
Thanks for the heads up Shriek - TO BPH? hehehe.
Shriek re the snow I think our area is in record territory as well - a funny letter to Mother Nature (not family friendly) in MacLeans online.
http://forums.macleans.ca/advansis/?mod=for&act=dis&eid=13&so=&ps=&sb=
Posted by: dmd | March 5, 2008 1:58 PM
Spirit's been running $103 round-trip fares, Orlando to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. That airport is a former B-52 base. Wonderful area for Joel to schmooze with residents and maybe take surfing lessons.
Guam would be a double-story destination. Primary and the great cycad disaster. A scale insect from SE Asia killed nearly all of the wild plants, which were abundant and impressive.
Posted by: Dave of the Coonties | March 5, 2008 2:00 PM
My brother spent some time stationed in Guam about 15 years ago. Nice people, but the infrastructure was less than ideal.
Something about continuous rolling brownouts.
Posted by: RD Padouk | March 5, 2008 2:02 PM
To heck with those delegates. A visit to Puerto Rico is necessary to gin up enthusiasm regarding increased funding for the Arecibo Observatory.
I mean, haven't people seen "Contact"?
If Martians are snapping our pictures and sending them back, this is where we would receive them.
Posted by: RD Padouk | March 5, 2008 2:07 PM
I cannot help commenting on the latest message by Senator Clinton, churning on my TV even now. She said her win in Ohio means she should recieve the nomination nationally because "only I can win Ohio." I may misquote. But the comment is inane upon analysis. Does she imply that if Obama is the nominee, all those who voted for Hillary in the primary will then vote for McCain? I doubt that will happen. And doesn't seem the sort of statement she should be making. The "since I can't vote for Hillary, I will instead vote for McCain" demographic surely exists and is just as surely very small - and weird. I would suggest the opposite demographic balances it out, the "I would not vote Democrat except for Obama" demographic, is similar if not larger. I think the polls suggest it IS larger.
Why is Clinton making such inane comments? It can only be that she either cannot tell sense from nonsense, or that she simply does not care what escapes her lips. Is it a habit of contempt for the populace? Or simply the usual self-indulgent blather from a momentary winner who hopes to win more?
Posted by: Jumper | March 5, 2008 2:30 PM
Jumper, I haven't much liked anything Hillary has said, or the way she's said it, in the past week or two. She just keeps losing points with me day by day.
Shriek, I liked "shack wacky." Hadn't heard it before.
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 2:35 PM
If not "Contact," RDP, they certainly must have seen "Goldeneye."
Mustn't they?
Posted by: Scottynuke | March 5, 2008 2:36 PM
Here's the teaser under the main story head: "Unsettled contest for Democratic nomination clears way for McCain to make his case without attacks from the other party."
Now what kind of scatterbrained nonsense is this? Who says the "other party" isn't going to attack him?
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 2:38 PM
Shriek, dmd, and all others similarly shack wacky, I feel for you. I've done my time in snowy climes. The winter of '77 was the last I spent there, in no small part due to the amount of snow. I believe the technical meteorological term for it was "out the wazoo." Anyway, what type of supplies should I fax to you? A hot toddy? A strong-armed young man to shovel for you? Plane tickets to the Bahamas?
Posted by: Raysmom | March 5, 2008 2:43 PM
I still say Hillary will not win the nomination. But she sure is a fighter.
bc--regarding you having seen a bald eagle so close to DC--doesn't surprise me since the whole area is affectionately referred to as a jungle. I know the eagles hang out around the Chesapeake Bay too and have seen them there. But seeing one on the ground on the side of the road (alive) in Florida was unusual for me.
Joel--you are sounding slap happy. This is a good thing. No wonder with this looooooong election process. My husband lived in Guam for a few years as a kid and loved it. Go Guam.
Back to the grind.
Posted by: eidrib | March 5, 2008 2:46 PM
Shriek, dmd, and all others similarly shack wacky, I feel envious of you.
I miss the snow.
Posted by: byoolin | March 5, 2008 2:46 PM
RD writes: "If Martians are snapping our pictures and sending them back, this is where we would receive them."
Not if you're wearing a BPH-spec tin foil hat, my friend.
You'd be amazed at what you can see wearing one of those.
bc
Posted by: bc | March 5, 2008 2:52 PM
Thanks Raysmom, off to a charity do tonight - it will be a nice change. At a fun place with antique billiard tables in a converted warehouse.
Winter of '77 - wasn't that the big storm in Buffalo and area?
byoolin - the snow has lost its charm, I actually woke up last night when my brain realized it could no longer here the ice pellets pounding on the bedroom window.
I would like to repeat I am supposed to live in the "Banana Belt" of central Canada.
Posted by: dmd | March 5, 2008 2:52 PM
Thanks Raysmom, clear skies and balmy temperature are my wishes. Got the hot toddy, one strong armed young man, one strong armed old man (and a fairly big snowblower to boost) and I spontaneously combust when exposed to tropical sun. I'm light pink, very, very light pink. Not yellojkt white, but close.
Mudge, the guy who was saying shack wacky for cabin fever had the best name for cow patties: meadow muffins.
Posted by: shrieking denizen | March 5, 2008 2:54 PM
Scottynuke - I would certainly hope so!
Posted by: RD Padouk | March 5, 2008 3:14 PM
I also think "Puerto Rico" is insanely fun to say.
Posted by: RD Padouk | March 5, 2008 3:19 PM
I woke to Hilary on CNN speaking about her roles in
Kosovo
Northern Ireland peace accords
HUH?
----
Help me out here or I will go to Wikipedia. During the Clinton years, I remember Hilary big on
health care, which did not go well;
women's initiatives, including a trip to Bejing; and a number of important but first-lady-ish trips and activities.
Basically, other than the wife-role, her national experience as a junior senator is very similar to Obama's. Why does she keep claiming this vast national and international experience?
Am I missing something? I feel uncomfortable about the experience claim that really invokes Bill.
Posted by: College Parkian | March 5, 2008 3:39 PM
And is Portentious, Pennsylvania closer to Squirrel Hill or to Intercourse?
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 3:40 PM
CP,
You have stumbled upon my son's stock anti-Hillary tirade. Hillary entered the Senate four years before Obama, but if you count his eight years in the Illinois legislature, he has more time in elected office. All of Hillary's other "experience" is as First Something Or Other.
My son developed this observation independently of any political views I may have tried to brainwash him with.
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 3:46 PM
Mudge, as we all know, those who must contend with snow on a chronic basis have many words for... cabin fever.
That said,
"Shack whacky cabin fever" would make a great song title/lyric.
Posted by: Wilbrod | March 5, 2008 3:47 PM
Raysmom, fax ME the strong-armed young man.
Posted by: Wilbrod | March 5, 2008 3:48 PM
CP, I don't think you're missing anything--unless she was more involved in those things than has been previously disclosed. But if you look at the primary results from Ohio and Texas (A9 in the dead trees edition of WaPo) the voters there were buying it. Those who said experience is important tipped 90% in favor of Sen. Clinton.
Posted by: Raysmom | March 5, 2008 3:49 PM
YJ, I recall lots of child advocacy work, but again, out of the berth of the first lady's office.
I just emailed an Irisher cousin who confirmed my query about Hilary's role in the Good Friday accords and later power-sharing agreements in N. IReland. He said that George Mitchell and Bill Clinton are the gren-repair dudes. No mention of Hilary.
BTW, he told me that he is backing Obama in some pub sweepstakes.
Posted by: College parkian | March 5, 2008 3:49 PM
"And is Portentious, Pennsylvania closer to Squirrel Hill or to Intercourse?"
I think it is right near Blue Ball and Bird in Hand.
Posted by: ebtnut | March 5, 2008 3:51 PM
GREEN-repair dudes! Mitchell and Clinton....he emailed back to also say that Ted Kennedy sometimes tries to take credit for the peace-brokering and no-one will have it, on that side of the pond. He said it is a bit like Al Gore inventing the internet....he was around but not the yeast, so to speak.
Oh Raysmom, I hate it when wishing or -- speaking --- like that makes it so.
Me, I like reality better.
Sigh. We are all such sheep.
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
Posted by: College Parkian | March 5, 2008 3:52 PM
Wilbrod, would he be needed for snow shoveling or purely for decorative purposes?
Posted by: Raysmom | March 5, 2008 3:53 PM
Garrison Keillor's moving.
http://www.startribune.com/local/stpaul/16238772.html
In Orlando, the new owner would probably demolish the outdated house and build something more impressive.
Posted by: Dave of the Coonties | March 5, 2008 3:56 PM
I think it means Hillary knows where the bodies are buried. Obama, not so much.
Posted by: Jumper | March 5, 2008 4:01 PM
This is my tune cootie for the day and it is also on topic (if the topic is the Presidential primaries...is that the topic? or was it Mars pictures, or tropical islands, or Seinfeld...?)
I would be emailing this to people even if I weren't supporting Obama, I think.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU
Posted by: kbertocci | March 5, 2008 4:21 PM
New kit. So we can kick Charlotte Allen around some more.
Posted by: yellojkt | March 5, 2008 4:30 PM
I just love listening to Italian music. So perky.
Posted by: Curmudgeon | March 5, 2008 4:34 PM
New kit!
Posted by: Raysmom | March 5, 2008 4:46 PM
Re: Hillary in N. Ireland.
She has a little more claim than CP's friend suggests. She met with and encouraged the N.I. Women's Movement, who had an important part to play in the Peace Process*. That's about it.
*The NIWM's part in gaining peace was the Irish equivalent of Lysistrata. They didn't threaten to withold sex, but fadge - a much more serious matter.
DC (ex-N.I.)
Posted by: strum | March 6, 2008 8:48 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.
i was just noticing that twice as many people voted in ohio and texas in the democratic primary than in the republican. that's a differential of like a million people in each state. wow. ok, the republican race was sort of an afterthought, but how does that compare to 2000 or 2004?