afficiliation?

Right now things are truly a muddle. The anger over Iraq that propelled the Dems to victory in 2006 seems to have cooled. The tanking economy seems to cut both ways, at least with those crucial "swing Democrats." While a poor economy can help Democrats, fear of taxes, rational or not, can still motivate many to vote Republican.

Both McCain and Obama are running against the Bush record, although McCain is doing so much more stealthfully.

VP choices will matter, but probably not enough to really change the outcome.

I dunno. Obama still has a lot of selling to do. Because, as Joel pointed out earlier, I really do think it is going to become all about Obama and less about McCain.

There's still about 150 days left. A lot can happen. Of course, some of us are planning on giving the political part of our brains the summer off.

'specially if the heat keeps up.

i like the word "afficiliation" - it means a fickle affiliation.

That's brilliant. L.A. lurker. Joel is expanding the language. He's like Shakespeare but with less iambic pentameter.

Hey, some interloper got to be first. I cry foul!

I wish I had a nickel for every rant I post in the last year or two about the need for Dems to run toward the center and centrists. For anyone interested, please see my previous 1,847 posts on this subject.

Now, breaking new ground, I've been hearing all this stuff about "Reagan Democrats" the last few weeks. I have these points to assert:
(1) This is a mythical creature, similar to a unicorn or a snipe. Just think about how utterly absurd that notion is.
(2) Assuming unicorns, snipes, and Reagan Democrats even exist at all, how many of them can there be? What is the minimum number needed to continue their breeding program? A couple hundred?
(3) Try and come up with a handful of policies and political viewpoints an alleged Reagan Democrat would hold. I'll be d@mned if I can. (Note: favoring fiscal conservativism does NOT make one a Reagan Democrat, facrissakes.)
(4) Assuming RD's still exist (left over from about 1988), how many do you think have remained steadfast in their political beliefs in the face of 8 years of Bush/Cheney? What is the rationale behind the notion these people will *still* vote Republican 20 years later? It is beyond absurd. (Among other things it requires the belief that McCain is similar to Reagan in some essential way. Bwahahahahahahahaha.)
(5) Just because some Democrats voted for Reagan means nothing without context: how many were voting "for" Reagan, or simply voting "against" Carter, to punishing him and the Dems for Carter's performance.

Now, I *will* agree that there is a creature like the "swing Democrat," just as there is the "swing Republican." But I submit that these voters are so tenuously attached to their party affiliations that the concept itself is basically useless. I submit further that such people are basically "independents" who for one reason or another have registered themselves in one party or the other, are likely to sqwitch back and forth from time to time, etc. It isn't that these people are "unimportant"; rather, it only means their label is useless or not seriously meaningful. (The Republicans have an offensive name for their loosely attached members: RINOs, "Republicans in name only." Well, Dems have DINOs.

Also, I have ranted a dozen times before that polls mean next to nothing, and at this point in time they mean less than nothing. They are barely even worth the oxygen needed to debunk them. The "snapshot in a point of time" argument about them is useless; it is about like taking a photo of a World Series baseball game in the middle of the second inning of the first game, and trying to draw conclusions about how the series will go. Yes, the photo of the scoreboard is "accurate." No, it doesn't mean a d@mn thing. It tells you nothing predictive; it is descriptive but not prescriptive.

(Many of the things that *do* matter, such as party voter registration trends, money-raising trends, etc., *are* often useful -- but note that those facotors are *not* visible in the scoreboard snapshot.)

The entire discussion that's been going on for the last two weeks or so about whether a lot of Hillary's women constituency will come over to Obama has been equally absurd. For one thing, Hillary doesn't have "one" constituency, she has at least five: the "feminist" bloc (for lack of a better term); the "won't vote for a black guy" bloc; the so-called blue collar (i.e. the hard-working Muricans) crowd; and the core of solid Democrats who don't particularly care about race *or* gender, but just thought Hillary was a better, more experienced candidate; and innate centrists as well as longterm Dem party apparatchiks.

Obama will pick up four of these five constituencies *without lifting a finger.*
(1) The feminist crowd will eventually come over to him lock, stock, and barrel, because of three little words: "Roe." "v."
and "Wade." The short explanation is, they cannot in any way, shape, or form, countenance a McCain win and the appointment of more conservative judges to the Supreme Court. They are already within a hair's breath of having RvW overturned; they cannot take a chance by sitting on their hands and either voting for McCain or (mildly more likely) sitting this one out. "Sitting this one out" because of pique is itself a vote in favor of four miore years of Bushism and loss of RvW. It'll just take them some time to get over their snit. But they have no choice.

(C'mon, think about it: the notion of a feminist voting for McCain. Get effing real, please. That's about like Charleton Heston voting for Jane Fonda.)

(2) The party apparatchiks currently or previously loyal to the Clinton machine will swing over. The reason is decptively simple: they are Dem appartchiks, "machine" people, party loyalists. These kinds of people don't vote for the other side, ever -- and the also never sit on their hands.

(3) A large portion of the so-called "blue-collar" crowd will vote for Obama, because they also have no choice. Those who are inclined to favor McCain have already left the party. They aren't around any more. Buh-bye, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

(4) The racists won't copme over; just write them off. While there are some, the are irretrievable; kiss 'em goodby, and good riddance. Balance them against the gazillion of new voters the Obama camp has recruited. It is a net gain for Obama.

L.A. lurker, that's perfect! I added your definition to the kit.

One thing I just love about the boodle is that I don't have to work to think all the political analysis through. There are others who can do it for me, and much better than I ever could.

Thanks, Mudge, I like and agree with what you said.

Mudge - my only concern with your analysis is that it is based on the Rational Actor model. My fear is that voters will not be rational. That is, they will vote against their best interests in order to make a point, validate some abstract value, or just because it feels good in the moment.

Also - you done real scared me with your use of "RD."

How many times do we have to tell ya, it's "Trotskyist" not "Trotskyite."

I went looking for the quote on the web and found an oblique reference, to wit:

"Wasn't it Hitchens who said that a Trotskyist is to a Trotskyite as a Socialist is to a Socialite?"

[Christopher Hitchens--someday I'm going to have to read some of his books and decide if he's a Good Guy or a Bad Guy. I'm kind of confused about it.]

I expect to see commercials speculating (vividly) about Obama's court appointees.

The local paper says Florida voters are increasingly registering as independents or Democrats.

Still, this is a state where every public facility flies a black prisoner-of-war flag, Tallahassee is controlled by quite conservative Republican, our new Republican member of Congress is all-but-elected, and there's a shortage of young voters.

My best guess is that McCain will carry the state by a safe margin unless a hurricane hits an urban area and the state's windstorm insurance scheme immediately goes belly-up.

And now for something completely different...

http://manbabies.com/

Only parts of it are based on rational-actor models, Padouk. The machine and apparatchik groups are always rational actors; it is implied in their definition. This group never flies off the handle and does something crazy, like vote for the opposition party.

Likewise, the feminist bloc, despite its current snit, has always been a strongly rational, intense and focused bloc. I caanot ever remember a sizable bunch of them flying off the handle and doing something irrational, like deciding, oh, what the he11, equal pay for equal work ain't so important, or what they he11, let 'em ban abortions in the second trimester. Quite the contrary; if you want to look at a voting bloc that generally keeps its cool and follows its own agenda, you couldn't find a better, more cohesive group. And they have nothing to dislike about Obama personally or policy-wise; he just beat their gril, that's all. They'll get over it.

Oddly enough, the racist crowd are (in their own lights) predictable and rational actors (insofar as they steadfastly persue their [reprehensible] agenda. Find me a racist who, upon reflection, will concede, "Yeah, maybe them darkies aren't so bad after all." Not gonna happen, Padouk.

Now, taking the rest, who might indeed be irrational actors: why assume their irrationality will steer them away from your guy? Maybe their irrationality will steer them *toward* him. Why not think of it as "a wash"? I think there are a great many independents and RINOs who might "punish" Bush and his 8 years of incompetence by voting against McCain --which would be irrational, because McCain is not Bush.

On a similar note, all that behavior directed *toward* Obama-- that he is "young and dynamic," a spellbinding speaker, "charasmatic," a "change agent," represents a "new kind of politics," or is "a new breed" or the "next generation," blah, blah, blah-- all that is essentially "irtrational, too, and it's all working in his favor.

So sure, a fair amount of the electorate is going to behave irrationally; they always have and they always will. The question is, which *way* will they behave irrationally. Look at the voter registration trends and the fund-raising trends, and then tell me which way the irrational models are tending. I say, "Bring 'em on." (Uh, didn't Bush say that? Well, never mind.)

Sure, some will listen to the "fear" argument, the homeland security BS, all the faux-patriotism crap, etc., and vote for McCain, irrationally and against their best economic interests. Given all that, ya gotta like Obama's chances over McCain's. Least, I think so.

(Yeah, I thought the "RD" thing might spook ya little bit. Sorry.)

All men are babies, TBG. Ask any wife.

Joel's link "from the Left" leads to a priceless picture of McCaine shiffing W's armpit. Almost spewed salad and feta cheese on the old keyboard.

I know my Maoist-Trotskysts (official paper: "In Struggle!") from my Marxist-Leninists (slogan: "Make the Rich Pay!"). Those were the days.
I don't know what the commies had with exclamation point though.

shrieking, funny about the exclamation point. I wonder if any of it came from the German heritage of the original writings, since German requires an exclamation point for all imperative sentences. (Always seemed excessively excited to me, but really just a punctuation rule.) That works for your second example, not for your first, but I could see it being extended as part of the writing style of the movement.

"I've got the Trotskys," sounds like an unpleasant affliction that will, er, *pass* in 24 hours.

Irrationality is one of the things that makes this country great, isn't it?

And irrationality combined with capitalism and democracy; how great is that?

Talk about the Land of Opportunity...

bc

Let me get this right:

Trotskyist:Trotskyite::Trekker:Trekkie

Is that basically it?

Mudge - don't want to rain on your parade about all women Democrats voting for Obama, but I wonder how many will be like the two ladies I have lunch with one day a week. Both are pretty staunch Democrats in most of their beliefs, but they say that Obama just doesn't "speak to them". This drives me bats, as I am quite sure the result of a McCain presidency will be a continuation of the Bush trends in the judiciary that I really, really don't want to see. I'm at a loss about convincing them of the error of their ways; I figure that I'll have the same results as trying to convince my teenager to do something. However I have given each of them a copy of Tobin article from the NYT, and hope that they get also the message from Hillary or maybe TV ads.
I used to think that we elected a president, not a king, and it wasn't such a big deal. Between signing statements, packing the bureaucracy with cronies instead of competence, messing with the Dept of Justice and similar actions, I've learned the error of my ways.

Speaking of RINO and DIMOs, there are also RIPOs. In our area only Republican candidates get elected to office, so if you want to have any say in local affairs, you have to vote in the Republican primary. This is the first year I think that I've ever voted in the Democratic party primary. When we moved to East Texas in the mid 70's, it was before the conservative Democrats went Republican, and only Democratic candidates got elected. But back then if I voted it was only in presidential election years. What can I say, I was 24 years old and wanting a say in electing local or state officials wasn't even on my radar yet. That didn't really happen until my first job working for an attorney, and several local judgeships were up for grabs.

Thanks for the piece on RFK and the 60's. I printed it off for my son, the science geek who just finished his first year at college and discovered he's really interested in history (speaking of transitions). Right now he's interested the rise of totalitarianism and cults (I see a certain impetus from current events here). He wonders just how much is a current trend, and how much it is hardwired into our species. Maybe he can merge his interests in biology and history. We got to talking, and I told him when I was studying linguistics, a hot topic was trying to find how much of language was hardwired. Times have sure changed, my husband was taking geology and plate techtonics was controversial.

Of course, when I was in high school, I worried about nuclear war. My son worries not only about global warming, but also about the growth of theocracies, corporatocracies and fascism.

Time to finish my lunch break, and duck back into working mode. Have a good afternoon boodle, and try not to bake.

It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing . . . shoo-wa, shoo-wa, shoo-wa, shoor-wa, shoo-wa, shoo-wa, shoo-wa, shoo-wa, shoo-wa wa!

Good points, Mudge.

I, too, think most of Hillary's supporters will end up backing Obama whether they like him or not. McCain does seem fairly reasonable as a Republican (and his ex-POW status doesn't hurt), but with 95% of his votes backing bills the Bush admin wanted, he's all but lost his "maverick" mojo. (and I didn't make that number up, btw -- I saw it on Hardball recently, so that makes it as official as any other contrived statistic.)

The Hillary supporters I worry about are ones like my aunt (my godmother, actually) who have bought the slander about Obama being a secret Muslim. She's one of the ones saying she'll either vote for McCain or not vote at all. I tried to explain to her that the "secret Muslim" thing is just as believable as all the "enlargement" ads that flood everyone's email box, but she "saw it on the Internet" so it must be true.

She's a Western Pennsyltucky, small town, no college, double-divorcee who says she's not racist but still uses the "n" word without blinking an eye. She does have many redeeming qualities and I love her to death, but let's just say I don't bring Little Bean by to visit very often and when I do, I make sure to keep the conversation in safe territory. I prefer to let her stay colorblind and ethnicity-blind for as long as possible.

I will say that after hearing my aunt's claim about Obama being a "secret Muslim" I was very tempted to ask her if she'd be interested in buying a bridge in Brooklyn, or some waterfront property in the Everglades, but I just didn't have the heart to do it.

Kbert... as far as Hitchens goes (in my book, anyway)... he's a cocky, pompous, sometimes eloquent ass who thinks he's the only one who knows the "truth" about life, the universe and everything. As far as he's concerned, anyone who believes in anything even remotely spiritual or supernatural should be considered an idiot.

In other words, since he knows it all, we're all supposed to just shut up, buy his books and take his word as absolute truth.

Anyway... back to making magical doors (I wonder what Hitchens would have to say about that?)

Would you like to swing on a star, carry moonbeams home in a jar, and be better off than you are?

Then vote Obama in the fall!

[Sorry, but it scanned.]

I cannot stand Christopher Hitchens, mostly for irrational reactions - to his appearance (I swear, he used to look like he'd been on a 3-day drunk when he was on TV), his accent, his sneering condescencion, his superiority. Along with that, I don't agree with his views - he was anti Bill Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal, pro George Bush on Iraq, anti religion in an ugly way. I've never willingly read anything he's written - although the Trotsky line is good.

Wait, RD doesn't exist? What?!?

I wonder if Hitchens would prefer "Hitchensite" or "Hitchensyst."

Probably the former, since the latter sounds like "Hitchens cyst."

:-)

I never said "all women Democrats," km2b; I said the "feminist bloc." Biiiiig difference. There are many women Democrats who don't consider themselves "feminists" (for whatever rational or irrational), nor part of the feminist movement, etc. Mainly these would be the older 1970s and 80's feminists, generally hard-core. Sometimes they bemoan the younger female generation of today not understanding or identifying with them, not having an appreciation of what they had to go through "back in the day" to break all those glass ceilings, etc. (I tend to be sympathetic to them on this point.)

Ha, Ivansmom, you're in good voice today! I like the "swing on a star" song - but the moonbeam line brings back unfortunate memories of Jerry Brown - Governor Moonbeam. You know, one of those wussie Democrats who believed in environmentalism, was hopelessly unrealistic, and from la-la land, no less. The Republicans have a knack for irrationalism, methinks.

Scotty... you just made me spew a freshly made gin and tonic out my nose. (I may not have air conditioning in my shop, but I do have a fully stocked refrigerator to help keep me cool and motivated)

Mudge... I see their point (our point? who knows), but the older women broke those barriers so the younger women wouldn't even have to pay attention to them.

Woohoo! The Group of Eccentric German Ladies who just *love* my little doors came through with payment on their big order -- and it cleared! Damn do I love the Euro... especially with such a weak US dollar.

Exporting rocks!

I understand what you're saying, TBG, but in a way it condones ignorance of history and lack of appreciation and perspective on the past. Would you say it is OK for a young black person to have no regard for the struggles of the Civil Rights movement of the 60s, because today they don't "need" to know about it?

For people to have no appreciate for the "greatest generation" that fought WWII so our generation didn't have to?

And I'm not sure "so younger women wouldn't have to pay attention to them" was exactly their primary motivation. They weren't "just" doing it for future generations; they were doing it for themselves, too -- and there's nothing wrong with that.

The "They did X so you don't have to" isn't quite the same as "They did X so you don't have to think about it."

'toon, yer welcome. :-)

yer right, Mudge... I was being way too simplistic.

mostlylurking,

I think Hitchens has been on about a 40-year drunk.

Thanks for the input on Hitchens. I think I had him vaguely in that "leftist, rationalist" category back in the day, and then he confused me by supporting the war, and then came out with that whole anti-God rant. I have nothing against atheists, but I don't like any flavor of aggressive proseletizing. (Who does?!)

I will give people a lot of benefit of the doubt if they characterize themselves as any brand of socialist (for example, I already think the relative Joel is referring to is very cool, even if all I know about him is what is in today's kit). That's because the people I have known in the Socialist Workers Party tend to be thoughtful and intelligent people, and when I was in college they understood me when nobody else did.

'sokay, Scotty... I made a new one. ;-)

And apparently no fatal damage to the keyboard.

(now I *really* got to get back to sawin' and sandin'... you folks are wonderful, but you're so... distracting... [and I'm afflicted with an attention span that makes a three year old seem like a Tibetan guru who's been sitting on a mountaintop for 60 years contemplating summat important, like "the sound of one hand clapping" or "does the Pope poop in the woods?"])

btw... you all *do* know I have papers to prove my insanity. Yes? No? Dang.

(I got them from the same internet site in Costa Rica where I got my medical degree that allows me to perform brain surgery... if I could figure out this stupid fax thingie, I'll send'em)

btw... I'm having a sale on lobotomies the *entire* month of June. Fifty percent off -- both literally and financially. Prior sales excluded. Cannot be combined with other offers. Patients must provide their own anesthesia.

I just wonder how many Hillary voters are like my lunch friends. They both said they would vote for McCain if Hillary didn't get the nomination. They don't seem to be irrational and they are both registered Democrats. I suspect it's some sort of assumption they're not even aware of (if you've read Lakoff 'Whose Freedom', the question probably should be, what is the deep frame). Without knowing what the underlying reason is, it's going to be hard to change that voters mind.

km2b... umm... you could always refer them to my lobotomy sale. ;-)

(not that a lobotomy is necessary to vote for Obama -- in fact, the evidence points to the contrary -- but if they're already that "drain bamaged", well...)

I don't doubt that's what they say, km2b; I hear it, too. The thing is, I think they will change their minds between now and November. ( hear it from my wife, actually (and am appalled).

Yes, I read a lot of Lakoff. And pretty much a believer in his theories.

Hmm. Just spoke to LIT (currently very busy and enduring an Internet outage as well), who suggests that we keep our eyes open for a spoiler.

bc

I guess I need to be more careful of using that word "irrational." What I mean is that people will often have different criteria than what we might assume.

For example, I know for a fact that there are people quite willing to knowingly vote against their economic self-interests because they don't like where Obama used to go to church. They consider it worthwhile to suffer financially for what they see as a noble principle.

Likewise, I have certainly read that there are women who will knowingly risk a McCain presidency because they are angry at Obama.

Finally, I do not doubt that there are racists who will vote against everything they believe in politically just to avoid a black president.

Are these irrational? No, technically not. But they do exist, and because their motivations are so psychologically complex, their numbers are difficult to evaluate. And this is what worries me.

If McCain wins, Martooni, I'll need to take you up on the offer - for myself. Especially if you throw in a fairy door. Do you offer group rates?

Obama's on CNN giving a speech from N. Carolina.

He's calling for a second round of rebate checks--and beaucoup programs to help struggling Americans.

Wonder how much those great-sounding beaucoup programs Obama is proposing will cost? And who will pay for them? Will increased taxes on the rich do the trick? What will Obama do anything to support the sagging dollar overseas? In a now fiercely competitive worldwide oil economy, will we have to rely increasingly on our own remaining resources by drilling in ANWR?

Where's an economist when you need her or him? Wonder what Krugman's up to today?

I wonder if any of Obama's proposals will help the situation of this North Carolina-based business:

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/02/thompson-is-ousted-as-wachovia-chief-executive/index.html?hp

The ouster of Mr. Thompson comes amid a string of disappointments and setbacks for the Charlotte-based bank, the fourth largest in the nation, which has suffered steep mortgage-related losses and rising legal and regulatory costs. Wachovia shares have fallen more than 56 percent over the past year. ...

Mr. Thompson, 57, had developed a reputation as an expert at integrating acquisitions, cemented in the 2001 merger of First Union and Wachovia that created the modern-day Wachovia. Yet that proved no help in smoothing over the $25.5 billion purchase of Golden West Financial -- made in 2006, near the top of the housing bubble -- which left Wachovia exposed to the now-ravaged California housing market.

Pssst. Free bumper sticker here:

https://pol.moveon.org/obamastickers/?rc=homepage

I put "Vote for McCain" in the same category as "Will move to Canada" as far as hollow threats go. I don't see any issue Hillary stood for that lines up better with McCain than Obama. In my admittedly wingnut circle of acquaintances, There were more people that put their preferences in Obama, McCain, Clinton order.

My wife became a DIPO this year for the privilege of voting in primaries. I've been a RINO for quite a while. I may be once again researching the various third party protest votes that I can make.

Anybody else on the Boodle ever read 'Reality's not what it Used to be?' Found it at a bookstore in Raleigh Durham a few years ago - we took the boy to Duke for the TIPS ceremony so he could actually meet other kids who like himself. I couldn't resist a title like that. It was written in the 80's, and a bit of a slog to get through, but I found it worth the read. Discussions of "red state/blue state", "fundamentalist/relativist" or the w"hat's the matter with Kansas" make a lot more sense when seen through thatlens. People will do all sorts of things to try and make their world view fit. And the criteria probably are conscious ones.

Here is a draft sample ballot for November:

• Barack Hussein O'Bama

• Other

Once we get sign off from Theresa LePore, we can go to print.

multiple SCCs. Biggest is 'Are *not* conscious ones.' That's teach me to not proof a post first. How do you prolific posters do it?

km2b - some of us don't. We just accept our typos as divine punishment for past sins.

I have no quarrel with how you used the word "irrational," Padouk. Yes, plenty of people are saying "irrational things ("Likewise, I have certainly read that there are women who will knowingly risk a McCain presidency because they are angry at Obama.")

Yes, you have indeed read that; so have I (until I'm blue in the face). The problem is, it doesn't matter if they said it *now.* The problem is to doubt that it will *still* be true in November. People say dumb, irrational things all the time; 90% of the time, they are just venting, letting off steam, running their mouths (or, less politely, full of sh--).

Sure, a lot of people in the Clinton wing are sulking. But as a parent what do you do when your kid is sulking over some imagined problem? You ignore it, and discount it, because you know that in a few hours the kid will get over it.

This is what I keep ranting about: the way the photograph of the scoreboard looks *now* doesn't mean anything; it isn't predictive.

To be worried is to believe that people who are feeling spiteful today are locked into that condition, and will be unmovable over the next 5 months. Nobody sulks for that long. Nobody.

km2b.. we just don't worry about it, usually. Fortunately for us, you've become a "prolific poster" yourself lately.

We're glad, too! Keep it up!

Don't knock irrationality as a motivating influence. A great deal of Republican success over the last three decades has been convincing midddle-class folk that their economic interests align with those of the super-rich.

Every time I hear someone advocate flat taxes I point out that the primary proponents of them have been Ross Perot and Steve Forbes. Both people I share little in common with except than when FICA is included, I am already in a higher tax bracket. Somehow I doubt that lowering their taxes will have much effect on mine.

I hope you are right Mudge. And I certainly agree about the uselessness of polls 150 days out. But I am continually amazed at the persistence of spite.

kbertocci, you have *great* comic timing.

Thanks for the laugh, ma'am.

bc

*Breathlessly catching up after two days without power and a weekend sweating in the Blue Ridge*

I've learned I have even more in common with my imaginary friends:

Like martooni, I get "Freecreditreport.com" tune cooties.

Like Yoki, my voice has deepened with age.

And I join many of you in appreciation of RD's eloquence. (yanno, Friday?)

I watched Charlie Rose Fri night for his interviews with people connected with Big Brown (very good too, especially with his exercise rider, Michelle Nevin). But afterwards, he talked to Tony Judt, who was talking about how we have not learned anything from history. I didn't listen to the whole interview (and had never heard of him before), but here's a good article by him:
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21311

Pertaining to the "young women don't appreciate what the feminists" did - many don't, as many of us don't appreciate what went before us. Usually it's something hitting us upside the head that makes us really get it.

And I agree with yellojkt about the taxes - except that people don't have to be convinced, they seem to think they will be rich someday and by golly, they don't want to be taxed when they are.

I proof nothing! (except my tax return)

Loomis... I could give a flying capital "F" about anything that causes Wachovia (which happens to carry my car loan) or any other bank that makes it's money from outrageous fees, finely printed "screw you's", and stupid decisions on the backend.

If a company wants to be a jackass, the bankers and their brokers on Wall Street have written the instruction manual.

If they get kicked back, I'll be sure to tune up my miniature violin.

In other words, I have no sympathy for the financial sector at all. They've screwed themselves by overreaching and taking not just the shirts but the "barrels" from their customers, and then have the nerve to moan about their customers not having enough money to pay their recently inflated mortgages.

It's freaking insane.

It's like... "Hey... I just nickeled and dimed you to death and raised your interest rates for no reason and tacked on a bunch of other fees because you weren't home last Tuesday when we called because you were fifteen minutes late on a payment, but you gotta cough up twice as much a month if you want to keep your house."

McCain would bail *those* bastages out, just like Bush&Co(tm) did, and blame "people" for making "bad choices". To hell with people. All we need are corporations with a government or three in their pocket.

Is that what you want, Loomis?

What's next? Are you going to fight against the repression of oil and pharmaceutical companies?

McCain will lose the general election as much as Obama will win it. Say what you will about Obama, but McCain just comes off as a skinny Dick Cheney in public. This problem will lose him many of the folks who are simply saying they will vote for McCain out of spite or contrarian tendencies.

mobedda - nicely put. And I *love* the phrase "skinny Dick Cheney." It has a certain melodic tone to it.

ml,

That's the irrational part of the concept. Folk working for a paycheck expect to suddenly be playing paycheck poker with Michael Bloomberg. Or passing on estates worth millions of dollars. Or make millions in capital gains taxes on their investments. Once I'm in that position, then I will change my tax policy.

Right now my hot button issues are means testing of student loan interest deductions and not indexing the Alternative Minimum Tax for inflation. Someone let me know where the candidates stand on these pocketbook issues.

km2b, thanks for sharing your experience out Texas way.

Because your son is interested in the hardwiring of language, I recommend Tim Friend's "Animal Talk." It talks about the universals and evolutionary characteristics of animal communication, including vocal gesture, the probable origin of why we enjoy music, and so on.

When communication in human incorporates relatively hard-wired or accessible characteristics, it gets called non-verbal, or gestural. Still, it's the bedrock of how we learn language.

Both deaf or blind infants suffer language delay if not properly given strategies that help their sensory handicaps. For blind infants, it means being allowed to handle items while being named. For deaf infants, it means being given language they can hear or see.

Language always is learned from the concrete.

Reading, writing, that is a later addition and not all humans excel at it... just like they don't always excel at math, either.

By the way, if your son is interested in the origin of number conceptualization (language, gesture, etc.), I also recommend "Pi in the Sky: counting, thinking and being." By John D. Barrow, as it also involves animal studies.

http://www.amazon.com/PI-Sky-Counting-Thinking-Being/dp/0316082597

Mudge, your analysis is excellent, if you assume those people are "hardcore" in their beliefs.

Racism, as Cassandra says, can be very subtle. Rather than a "not gonna vote for a black guy" attitude, it can be internalized as rationalization-- "he doesn't seem trustworthy. Too smooth, he speaks too well."

When you're responding to a politican, many prejudices come in play.

It's very difficult to defend liking Hillary and not Obama on pure policy grounds, unless Hillary's version of universal health care is the make-or-break deal.

Practically, with her in the Senate, enough Democrats in Congress, AND a Democratic president, something of the sort WILL happen. Obama's not going to veto any great health care bills. McCain likely will.

So Mudge, it's going to take a time for the prejudices to be transformed.

Politely correcting people who claim he is a secret Muslim is a small blow. As I tell them, you don't have to like him or his ideas, but please do get that one right. Such comments do betray the great deal of fear and anxiety which we all have endured for the last 7-8 years. It's not going away overnight.

Check out Joel's "Grow your own" link.

It's not whatcha think.

Or, maybe it is.

martooni, IIRC Loomis is supported financially by Loomisspouse's work at a bank/finance/insurance company that was taken over by Wachovia. Hence her interest.
people vote one way or another for the darnest reason. I told the story of the green-eyed redhead that made me give my vote to the Communist Party of Canada (Marxist-Leninist).
A most hated professor in a Chemistry department I briefly worked in got the total support of his colleagues eager to see him out of their hair and gone to the Provincial legislature. (He lost this first time but won a federal seat a couple of years later).
My mother thought P.E. Trudeau looked like a "real head of state" and this was her main reason to vote for him. He looked good in a suit. Great.
So you can vote because of lust, love, spite, greed and any other rational or irrational cause.

Spread the "skinny Dick Cheney" idea far and wide.

For er, ageism snark, and also proof of McCain breaking a New Hampshire law:

http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/

And my comment on the "secret Muslim" thing is "what's wrong with that?"

It's not "the Muslims" who are agin' us... it's the Muslim EXTREMISTS, much like it's the Christian EXTREMISTS who are also out to damage the American Way.

And to add to RD's points, of course, we already have a president who was elected by folks who voted against their own self-interest just because they THOUGHT he shared their values.

I am just sooooooo laughing at this headline (not the hed itself; at the idea in it): "Fed Official Calls for More Regulation of Financial System."

Ya think? After Reagan deregulated the banking system and got govt. "off your backs"? (And tell me, Dr. Phil, how's that been workin' out for ya?)

"The lack of money is the root of all evil."

http://www.amazon.com/Lack-Money-Root-All-Evil/dp/0735202192

Mark Twain house in possible jeopardy:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/03/nyregion/03twain.html?scp=4&sq=Mark+Twain&st=nyt

Moreover, museum officials are concerned that soaring gas prices will discourage schools from sending the usual flood of children. Last year, nearly one-sixth of the museum's 68,000 visitors arrived on school buses.

Wait, beware that site if you're prone to Bob Dylan tune cooties such as "For the times, they are a-changin'"

Although it is a welcome cootie...

The biggest Clinton supporter on the NYT Op-Ed page has a big crate of sour grapes today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/opinion/09krugman.html

Among the big revelations is that only racists oppose welfare.

Front Page Alert...

Hey, let's watch that ageism snark, shall we, Wilbrod? I don't make jokes about gnomes, do I? (OK, maybe that's a bad example.)

TBG, let's not even go there with the "secret muslims thing". Because most US-born muslims are African-american, this may be code for "Black radical" to some, as well.

Let's just say what these people know of Islam is about as factual as believing there were WMDs in Iraq.

I really do think American muslims need to set up some steady fact-advocacy there.

For instance, because Somali teenagers were afraid of a service dog and harrassed the teacher at a MN high school for using one, and the administration COMPLETELY dropped the ball on education and having a spine, this set off fears about how all muslims will want to undermine rights of service dog users.

I am glad to the muslim service dog user who softly spoke up to correct the person's misapphrehensions about service dogs and Islam, and how the religion does NOT forbid dogs at all, and that in, fact, there are a lot of dog breeders and fanciers in the Islamic world-- especially of Salukis, Afghans, etc.

Dude, if we did "things younger than Curmudgeon, Sailor, Scribbler, and Spy" it'd be short--

"1. Everything.
2. Yes, everything. Really.
3. We mean it. EVERYTHING."

My conception of a flat tax always was to increase the taxes of the super-rich like Ross Perot and Steve Forbes (RIP) and to decrease the taxes of the poor. I guess they would call it "a modified flat tax"; I would call it "recognizing that you can't squeeze blood from a stone." I imagine something like a deduction that is at a serious level -- say, $15K per person in a household -- and tax the rest at some very high rate, like 50%. The idea is that everything beyond a basic cost of living is discretionary. The actual calculation of the rates would be based on fitting the parameters in a basic linear expression like (sum of all taxes) = sum of ((income-y) * x > 0), where individual tax is non-zero only if income minus the deduction y, times the tax rate x, is greater than zero. The free parameters x and y would be set so that the tax paid at a certain income level (arbitrarily chosen) is unchanged in the transition from the preceding tax code, and so that the total taxation income is unchanged from the preceding tax code. Two limiting conditions, two free parameters. It's not really a fit, it's computation. Once those parameters are defined, we can start tweaking in order to achieve goals of social justice or what-have-you.

Well, the Earth's older...

Innit?

One assumes that includes "dirt."

I've been thinking. Maybe Obama is a secret mausoleum.

I remembered that, SD... but it wasn't the sole reason for my rant about financial institutions.

As they say, "ye reap what ye sow" (or summat like that).

In this case, it was a plea for a sympathetic ear coming from a usually caustic individual with family ties to the company in question that fired me up -- but this is a sore that's long been festering.

(Sorry if I stretched the Boodle rules of decorum, but her post just struck me as something that screamed for a swift rebuke.)

When I look at the charges I get for seemingly innocuous transactions on a daily, weekly and monthly basis -- some are free if done online, some are free if done by phone, some are free if done in person, and *none* are free if done the wrong way or at the wrong time or while wearing the wrong color underwear -- I have no respect and absolutely no sympathy for the "troubles" of financial institutions.

They're the only ones who can legally get away with extortion and they do it every second of every day and they get away with it because people who need to borrow money will sign damn near anything because they have no other choice.

What gets me is that they also stick it to those not borrowing, but *saving* money -- investing their earnings in the hope to make a little interest. And that's all they get -- a *little* interest.

The banks sell off their loans (and risk) and use their customers' holdings to make big profits in the stock markets or elsewhere, then brag about paying back a whopping 2 to 5 percent APY that, once fees and other fees and even more fees are taken out, amounts to *more* profit for them and almost nothing to account holders.

WTF... I got a mattress that pays better rates than most banks do, probably because my pillow isn't a greedy thief and the blankets actually cover my a$$.

{* deep breath *}

okay... better now.

Steve Forbes is dead? Does he know that?

I'm still in the throes (I hate that Cheney co-opted that word) of getting my passionate Hillary-backing friends to vote for Obama. One of them (ardent feminist) swears that she will vote for McCain and the other is going to sit out the election completely. What idiots!!! I don't know if either of them will come around by November, but I will still be persistent between now and then in my attempts to get some brains in their respective crania.

I am soooo tired. Woke up at 4:00 this morning, in anticipation of the alarm going off at 6:00 (that always happens to me). At least my trip to Dulles Airport beginning at 6:20 was virtually traffic-free (well, that stretch of the beltway from River Road to the Airport turnoff was a bit dicey at times, but not too congested). I was to meet with one of my former students from Africa, take him to breakfast (both of us, actually) and then wait until rush hour had passed before taking him to his class lodgings in Arlington. I told him that if he didn't see me when he got out of Customs to sit and wait for me. Which he did. Somewhere else. I waited two hours and then paged him. And there he was. We did laugh about it, but I'm soooooo tired. Great b'fast, he gave me presents from Tanzania (Bush tea and a beautiful embroidered runner for a table top (or maybe I could frame it) with the design of various animals, and some forks carved and painted out of cow horn. He's a lovely guy. But he's the type who can sleep on airplanes (I'm definitely *not* -- the white noise keeps me awake). He's posted on a project in (*gasp*) in Zimbabwe right now, and has finished the first of three years. He says it's unbelievably horrible there. If Mugabe stays in, he thinks all the NGOs (of which his agency is one) are going to leave. He lives with his wife in a safe area, but when he leaves the safe area, he is very vulnerable to bad acts. Other than that, he thinks that we here drive on the wrong side of the street (which mirrors my exact thoughts when I was over there). He's a dear young guy, and it's great to see him again after going on 5 years. He thinks I look thinner and younger. Hmmm. Wish he could stay longer, ya know???

Glad to be inside and have the air conditioner working. And now, after having a couple of days without email or Internet access (due I think to the storm that came through on Saturday afternoon), I am now up and running.

And now, I'm going to check the email through my yawns to see if a client is available. 'Tis Monday, after all.

I'm certainly not going to be the one to tell him.

Just seen on CNN:

"LIVE BREAKING NEWS: Bo Derek speaking at Interior Department on wildlife tracking."

That's called a press availability, folks... *SIGH*

Boy, you're lucky, Martooni. My pillow keeps stealing my ability to stay awake. Can we trade? I promise to take all the dog hair and slobber off it.

Ftb, send them that website, and then let them simmer a week, and talk to them again. If you're still friends.

TaxManTim,

While your math is correct, most people assume that x*(Income-y) would be less than their current taxes. For nearly all values of x proposed by flat tax advocates (17%-24% being the most common range), the taxes on most people would go up because y would be so low. The AMT which is aimed at Rich People (like a fifty year old teacher married to a school principal) is an example of that. The current AMT rate in which x is effectively 35% and y is $66,250 for married couples (and will go down to $45,000 absent another stop-gap quickie law) is so onerous people work hard to avoid it. Even under the AMT, the marginal rate for The Really Rich (0ver $450k gross income) goes down to 28%.

And none of that takes into account the regressive nature of FICA.

Just got a text alert from Fairfax Co...

There's been a derailment on the Orange Line between Rosslyn and Courthouse. No reported injuries, but both direction trains are sharing one track, so expect "significant delays for several hours."

Ugh.

From the Wikipedia article on the AMT concerning how many people are affected by the AMT:

"However, some counties, such as Fairfax County, VA ($100,318), and some cities, such as San Jose, CA ($71,765), have local [household] median incomes that are considerably higher than the national median, and approach or exceed the typical AMT threshold."

Aren't you rich Fairfaxians lucky?

Why don't I feel rich?

Waiting patiently for the air conditioner repair man. 88 degrees in here now. And since I've been waiting since 8 a.m., I haven't been able to leave the house at all. How did we ever stand the heat in the olden days (when I was a girl).

Yellojkt has nicely pointed out the cost of living varies wildly.

Heck, 15K is enough to live on in some rural states, but in the DC metro area, you'll have to pledge never to save a penny and fill out tons of paperwork to be allowed to rent a place that eats maybe 80% of your money.

I had "affordable housing" and I was paying more than 15K a year for rent alone in the DC area.

If you need to do a big income exemption to make a heavy flat tax work, start at 25K for singles minimum. No?

That's why gradual taxes unfortunately make more sense, rather than a flat tax after income exemptions.

And to make you feel even sorrier for me than you no doubt do, I still have broken ribs and it's been 7 weeks since I fell.

I know College Parkian will recover faster.

You don't feel rich because the cost of living (mostly housing cost) is so high here.

Speaking of cost of living, I heard a snippet of an interview with the jockey of Big Brown where he said that he pays a health insurance premium of $110 every time he rides in a race, not $110 per day at the track, but $110 per race!

If I only had a braaainnnn

(Like this woman).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20080609/sc_livescience/115yearoldwomansbrainintiptopshape

Mudge, what's your secret?

Oops! Oops! I was thinking of Steve Fossett!

Always important to run toward the muddle--ah, middle--during the general election. That sets up typically low expectations, which can then be matched by performance without any penalty.

I had a psych professor 40 years ago who explained how "the middle" had moved rightward in every election since the end of WWII. Now apparently the Democratic candidate needs to issue a statement in support of torture in order to have a chance at winning the presidential election.

More Centrism! Back to Muddle! Ride that center line down the highway of life! There is no hope that can't be unbloom'd by reaching for mediocracy. Muddling Wins Elections!

Clean living and a pure heart, Wilbrod.

(Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha.)

Crawling through the heat to the bus...

Crc, horse racing is deathly dangerous.

But yeah, even figuring that he gets good prize money whenever he places or better, that's still expensive. I wonder what the health insurance premiums for NASCAR or Formula One drivers are like.

I believe the NFL self-insures the football players. After retirement, that ends, except for some measly help if the injuries can be proven to be linked to their football careers.

http://www.bcbs.com/news/national/nfl-retiree-plan-hit-as-lip-service.html

But the sports fans will know more than I do about this.

And among the deductions that the AMT (and most proposed flat taxes) does away with include mortgage interest, state and local taxes, and charitable contributions.

/stepping off anti-AMT & flat tax soap box

If they can have sales tax pinpointed to specific counties or zip codes, why not use that data to determine income tax rates?

I'm with Wilbrod on a graduated scale tax system, but I also like a flat tax.

Why not both (in a sense)?

Based on the cost of living for your zip code (or maybe even more refined than that), determine the average cost of living and make that the basement figure. If you make less (or your earnings plus investments make less) that would be exempt. If you make more, start at say 15% and go up a 10th of a percent for every $2K you make in addition to that (or whatever, I'm mowing grass and sweating like a pig right now, so not in the mood to do math). Get rid of all the capital gains and other taxes -- income is income, just lump it all together -- (and force the states and local municipalities to adopt a similar calculation).

A straight flat tax would hit lower income people harder, since a larger percentage (if not all) of their earnings are required for living expenses.

A progressive tax that doesn't take into consideration the costs of living on a regional basis is just as bad -- someone in Ohio (like me) making $x but only paying $y for living expenses would be taxed at the same rate as someone living in San Francisco making the same amount, but paying 4 times the cost the cost of living.

I can't understand *why*, with all the data available, that a fair system (or better yet, a single *inclusive*/*one-payment* system that includes state and local entities) can't be done.

Not to overuse the "WTF", but WTF?

We've put men on the moon and done all kinds of really impressive stuff when our collective minds and resources are put together. Why not a sensible, fair and universal tax system?

For that matter, why not a sensible, fair and universal *health* system?

I swear (a lot it seems, these days) that we lost ourselves back in the "me-me-me" 80's. I know that the future is not "me" but my daughter. I know that "I" can do a little to help someone less fortunate, but "I" can't help everybody. That's what taxes are *supposed* to be for -- community coming together to do the things individuals are unable to.

I remember reading an op-ed by the guy who owns USA Today (which I never read, because it's just... you know)... but he wrote a piece around tax time saying how happy he was to write a $1M (or whatever it was) check to the IRS. His attitude was (and I'm paraphrasing) "If I'm making enough to have a $1M tax bill, I have no excuse not to be happy about paying it because that means I'm a success."

God loves us so much more than we can imagine through Him that died for all, Jesus Christ.

Hello, friends. I had another funeral to attend this morning, and it lasted well into the afternoon. It is so hot outside. I had to carry a flower at the funeral, and when I stepped outside, boy did I get back in the shade fast. And the church was hot because people were going in and out, and the air conditioning could not keep up.

My nephews' grandmother passed, and I wanted to see them, and be there for them. I haven't seen them in awhile, and it was good to see them, although not a good time.

When I came home, water was running down my face like someone had a hose on me. Of course, the g-girl is here too. It is just too hot outside for man or beast. I think it is above 100 degrees.

Mudge, I agree with your comment concerning politics and why people vote the way they do. I also agree that it is too early to say it is written in stone how people will vote. With gas above four dollars a gallon, I think people should give some serious thought to how they vote. I see on the front page that truckers are striking because of high gas prices. That should get someone's attention, don't you think? If that doesn't work, I suspect we may have more chaos.

I hope it is not as hot where you folks are as it is here. It is just beyond hot in this place. We've been under a heat alert for some days now.

Slyness, I know it's hot in your town too. I keep thinking about those cool days of long ago. I hope I didn't complain too much about them.

Concerning the kit.... I laughed out loud at those last couple of sentences. And I needed to laugh.

Here are a couple of completely off-topic items that I enjoyed. First is a brief, enjoyable interview with Mike Mills of R.E.M. about their music:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/postrock/?hpid=news-col-blog

Second is an article by Michael Kinsley from today's Slate about how to measure the productivity on this here Internet thingy:

http://www.slate.com/id/2193216/

By the way, kbertocci, Christopher Hitchens publishes quite frequently on Slate. Right now most of his stuff is in an anti-religion and pro-Iraq-war mode, but at least you can get a feeling for his writing style.

Wow, talk about contrast in temps! It's hot as you-know-where on the eastern side of the continent but out in the west, they're saying there will be snow in the mountains around Seattle and highs in the mid-fifties. And this is June. Beats me how Mother Nature works. It's hot here too but that's a given I suppose.

Taxes. One of the most difficult things to make fair. On the other hand, lawmakers create such complicated tax codes that how can the average American understand how to create the best situation for themselves? I can't, which is why on top of the taxes I have to pay every year, I'm paying the accountant who has to figure out how much I have to pay. Used to be I could just use Turbotax, but since I was self-employed, it got too complicated for me to do alone.

And rich? Being rich is all relative, isn't it?

It hit 125 in my truck cab today, so I took it easy. Practiced my Tim Robbins
"stroll" where you don't "walk" you amble a little easier than that. Hands
in pockets. No hurry, no worry. It worked. I should stroll more often. I
also unfurled the dash windshield reflector AND the golf umbrella, held on
with a C-clamp to the truck. And icewater. And gatorate, mixed 50/50 with
icewater, on ice. I ought to put my straw hat in the truck and use it.
Hardhats be hanged, I'm strollin' tomorrow.

I fear and loathe "flat" taxes. Will capital gains fall under the aegis of this flat tax? Ha! I doubt it. My own universal solvent, my approach to cutting the Gordian knot, is to tax capital gains after indexing them to inflation. That tends to save family farms (all 5 of 'em left). Admittedly, not taxing land Federally (when it changes hands) could get sticky. Maybe that's my argument's weak point. Other inheritance taxes would be restored under my plan. It's just unrealistic to consider Federal income taxes in a vacuum, without consideration of other taxes such as FICA, local and state sales taxes, and corporate taxes.

Am I rich? I have a great husband, two wonderful kids, a nice house (with a/c that works!), my little sister four houses down the street and my two older sisters only an hour away in each direction. I have friends, food, decent health and a Boodle to keep me company all hours of the day or night.

Money? That's not even in the equation, but.. Yes.. I'm am rich as Croesus.

I favor a rational honest progressive tax code. But with certain, modest, changes whose value should be self-evident.

1) Lagomorphs should quality for generous deductibles because they think they are people.

2)Same thing for dogs.

3)Oh, heck. Cats too.

4) Income averaging should be reinstated and permitted to extend back to the first trimester.

5)A dish of really tasty rice pudding should be allowed in lieu of cash.

6)The swimwear competition should be dropped.

7)If your 4s look too much like your 9s on your tax return, they should just split the difference.

8) Upon request, refunds should be issued in gift certificates to Dunkin' Donuts.

9) Because of its many healthful qualities, all purchases of Shiraz should be deductible as a medical expense.

and, most importantly,

10) For simplicity, the income of all Federal Employees should be tax exempt.

Kinsley's Slate piece reminded me of SF writer Roger Zelazny's explanation of why all his characters smoked: he was paid X pennies per word, and every time the characters smoked, he made a few extra cents.

The news from Padouk was troubling. As I set down the telephone in its cradle, I searched my top desk drawer for a box of cigarettes. I pulled out the first of many, lit one, and inhaled. It was going to be a long night.

{* gasp *}

How freaking dumb can a furry gnome be to mow the lawn in 90MFn'F weather?

It really needed done, so I approached it as one would a hair shirt or self flagellation (which isn't as much fun as it first sounds) -- with steely determination and a very very very large glass of gin and tonic with two chunks of lime. Probably not as "good for you" as water or Gatorade or ethanol, but it did the trick. It calmed and cooled me enough to start the mower.

An hour and 200 laps later, I'm done. The yard looks purty and I look like something my neighbor's dog would bury. Very deeply. And then pee on.

I'm off to draw a bath now. I'd have my butler do it for me, but we had to let him go. Same with the maid and (obviously) the groundskeeper. Times are tough, but carry on I shall...

{* puts on his stiffest upper lip, says "Toodle Pip!" and heads to the tub to remove all the rubber duckies, Backyardigans, Elmo and other plastic and inflatable flotsam and jetsam that come with a six year old *}

Here's my kind of quiz!

http://connect.afi.com/site/PageServer?pagename=10TOP10Quiz

I got 35 out of 40.

Ha - Kingsley's article is very good. It reminds me of a joke we had at my very large corporation, that the goal of the executives was to reduce the number of employees to zero, so the labor expenses would be zero. Seriously, our CEO has a goal of cutting costs by 4% each year...apparently till you have none. Sigh.

I read the Mike Mills interview earlier - liked it too. BTW, I would have sworn that Michael Stipe was doing the voice over for a Chevron commercial, which seems completey bizarre - but it's an actor named Campbell Scott (according to what I found on someone's blog).

Will try to send our unseasonably cold temps east.

29/40

32/40 on the AFI quiz. I'm very happy with that.

kguy... I'm only a movie maverick.. I got 26 out of 40.

29 of 40

Dang, only 25/40. I lost it on the genre part...

32/40 Some of those old movies threw me. And I know nothing about Mary.

Aahhh... just the thing those pro-lifers were afraid Tim Kaine would do if elected Governor...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/09/AR2008060901984.html?hpid=topnews

Argggg -- 26 out of 40! Some of the "old" ones I knew, but I guessed at so many of them (and, surprisingly enough -- successfully). It was fun. And now I'm dun.

25/40, and here I thought I knew something about movies. Better pay more attention to the AMC channel.

31/40, I'm impressed with myself.

This quiz reminded me of how much I love 'Harvey' and that I need to find my copy and watch it again soon.

Aloha, I scored 27 out of 40 and I was guessing half of 'em.

This has nothing to do with knowing movies, more to do with a capacity for recalling pointless trivia.

If it wasn't for the K-guy I'd never have known The Magnificent Seven was a remake of Seven Samuri. However, the movies based on books, I got rather easily.

I think a high score means someone has spent a whole lot of time watching movies.

Yeah Wilbrod, I guessed on a lot of them too. Although there were a few that I thought I had right but was told I picked the incorrect answer. Ha! I would have liked to know what the correct answers were but they didn't offer up the correct ones on the questions I got wrong.

32 out of 40. I'm surprised K-guy only got 35. I'd have bet him for 37 or 38, minimum.

By the way, great analyses this afternoon by Mudge and jello and others regarding who will vote for which candidate. I'm still frustrated by my inability to post from work.

29/40 - drat, I thought I would do better than that.

26 out of 40 - a little surprise I did that well.

Just got caught up from today - thanks for the laughs everyone.

There is a sentence in the Mark Penn article that really bothers me, "I believe nothing they (the Clintons)said was ever intended to divide the country by race."

So then. Exactly what did Bill Clinton's Jesse Jackson remark intend? "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in '84 and '88. And he ran a good campaign. Senator Obama has run a good campaign here, he has run a good campaign everywhere."

Air conditioner fixed! Down to 82 degrees from a high of 90, and only $260. God knows, if he had said $500, I'd have said, "Is that all?"

Yay Maggie! I'm sure you'll sleep better tonight.

When I was a kid, back before A/C, I remember having difficulty going to sleep in the summer. Now I realize that I couldn't sleep till I was cool enough.

Hope the ribs are feeling better, too...

Saying hello to all; lurking in between dissertation defenses today and tomorrow. Maggie O Day,how are your ribbies doing? I am better but still wish I could stand at the computer.

Political affiliation reminds me of sport team loyalties.

Still hot. Swam today, during which I thought about KB's comments on Christopher Hitchens: one angry dude. I think that he is an ANTI-theist, rather than an atheist. Very energetic. I hope he mows the lawn or some-such practical thing with such fire. (Could you imagine him as a neighbor!?) If you turn off the sound and simply watch him, he could be a hellfire and brimstone preacher.

Good night, y'll. May tomorrow have a breeze or two in it.

30/40 ... not bad for a guy who hasn't seen a movie since "The Jazz Singer" first hit the theaters.

By the way, here is an e-mail form for all supporters to thank Hillary Clinton for her tough campaigning.

http://tinyurl.com/5c3bt8

Hmm. 34/40 on the quiz, with a couple of guesses.

I must confess to not having read much of Hitchens, so I can't really say anything useful about him or his work.

I will say that I certainly don't have all the answers for myself, and wouldn't presume to tell anyone else what constitutes universal or personal truth in matters of philosophy or spirituality.

I think it's a journey everyone takes, whether they ride or drive, if you have a planned destination or not.

But that's just my opinion.

Maggie, cassandra, and anyone else out there in BoodleLand who might be feeling poorly this evening; my best wishes to you.

bc

bc

27/40 on the movie quiz. Most of the ones i got wrong were gangster movies....

Hope everyone had a good weekend.

mo.... to answer your question from Friday, the CBPW was a blast. I enjoyed it enough that I want to come down for the super mega mega in October.

I'm glad to see that Hillary stopped fighting fate, and endorsed Obama. Honestly I thought either one of them would make a good change in your presidency, but I find myself disagreeable towards the lowroad tactics that Lady Clinton turned to.

on a completely random note, for the editors in the house:

http://quotation-marks.blogspot.com/

this blog is devoted to inappropriately used scare quotes.
some of the examples are quite funny.

L.A. lurker, I'm ashamed to say that we have several inappropriately-scare-quoted little placards scattered around the house for the benefit of potential buyers. (They keep coming to look...wish one of them would make an offer.) Not our fault -- courtesy of the same "stager" who thought we had too many books (hm, connection there?). So we're asking them to leave the laundry room door "open" so the cat can access her litter box, and we're advertising that the house has a "programmable thermostat." Highly irritating every time I pass by. Please, someone, make an offer so we can throw them out!

That passive-aggressive blog link with the owner's aunt leaving those weird notes around was quote, "quite", unquote funny.

I sent a preacher friend of mine the post about the free "bible" there. The Q'uran? The Atheist's bible?

If Hillary Clinton genuinely began this saga to help our nation, then she should not quit the race. Rather, she should quit the Democratic party and join the presidential race as an independent candidate. Read "Hillary Clinton as an Independent Candidate" @ http://theclearsky.blogspot.com/#8706393981159671199 .

Her true political views are the ones that she expressed in vote after vote in the Senate, not on the campaign trail. Those views resonate with mainstream America.

Those views will not prevail if she serves as vice president. The president, not the vice president, sets the policy of the executive branch. Anyone claiming other wise is a political operative emphasizing the survival of the political party over the survival of the nation.

Neither John McCain nor Barack Obama enjoy broad support in mainstream America. If Clinton declines to become an independent candidate, then another moderate pro-universal-health-care politician should step into the 3rd-party limelight to score a relatively easy win in the general election.

If Hillary Clinton does not run as an independent candidate and if an acceptable 3rd-party candidate does not step forward, then the best thing to do is the following. Grab the voting ballot in November and write her name on the ballot. By law, the state goverment must report the percentage of votes to each person -- including an unofficial write-in candidate. The aim is for Fox News and CNN to report the following percentages of the popular vote.

1. 50% Hillary Clinton
2. 30% John McCain
3. 20% Barack Obama

Though Clinton cannot win (because she is not registered with the relevant state departments of elections) even with a plurality of the votes, a strong showing (like that above) will essentially make her the de-facto president of the United States. Before President John McCain initiates any policy, he will unofficially seek the approval of Senator Clinton.

Remember that, in a democracy, you are 100% responsible for the actions of your government. You must choose wisely. If you are unwilling to acceptable responsibility for any policy that a candidate may support, then do not vote for the candidate -- regardless of what the political operatives in the Democratic party (or the Republican party) tell you.

Write the candidate of your choice if the ones on the ballot are unacceptable.

Nice try, but that's not how politics work.

Write-in votes would be cutting your nose off to spite your face, and would tend to ensure McCain wins, and do nothing for Hillary. She has supported Obama, not McCain, and that's for a reason.

Senator Obama has already named an economic advisor.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080609/pl_bloomberg/aueioisu8xr4_1

``We did not arrive at the doorstep of our current economic crisis by some accident of history,'' Obama said today. ``This was not an inevitable part of the business cycle that was beyond our power to avoid. It was the logical conclusion of a tired and misguided philosophy that has dominated Washington for far too long.''

Sorry, Hillary Clinton as a powerless de facto president doesn't trump tapping the best talent out there.

Mornin' Boodle...

I'm not even going to bother on that quiz because I don't watch many movies -- except for the Harry Potter ones (my dirty little secret).

Big thunderboomer blowing in right now at about 65mph. The trees are already blowing around like a bunch of angry Ents.

Today my Little Bean graduates from kindergarten and they're having a big outdoor picnic (assuming the storms [we have a second bigger one on the horizon] have blown through and not taken the roof off her school). In any case, I have an appointment to hear a bunch of five and six year olds sing some songs at 11:30. I love this Daddy stuff. Really! And seriously, even!

I'll probably be the only crying furry gnome in the audience. Why must they grow so darn quickly?

Peace out... eggs and leftover ham with hashbrowns will be served in the bunker shortly. Just give me a minute to get my beard in order.

34/40 on the movies. And I have not seen all of them. Just the ones I needed to.

Joel,
I had no idea you were such a Neil Diamond fan.

ixnay on the ham... apparently my stepson emerged from his lair last night and ate it all up.

So we're having eggs with bacon and hashbrowns.

And my beard is in fine form (*and* I'm wearing a hairnet).

--

If Joel is a Neil Diamond fan, should we be worried?

Curious minds and all that...

Dear reporter, USA: At the top of your blog it says you earned "a doctor of philosphy of engineering" at Standford U. You might consider making that "a doctorate," or a "doctoral degree," or heck, how about a "Ph. D."?

And I really liked this line: "then another moderate pro-universal-health-care politician should step into the 3rd-party limelight to score a relatively easy win in the general election."

Doncha just love all those "relatively easy wins" indie candidates have scored in the past-- Perot, Nader, John Anderson, Lyndon LaRouche, etc.

And yes, I'm dead certain Hillary would get 50% of the vote just through write-ins. Great suggestion; thanks. Write-in candidates have done almost as well as 3rd-party indies have done. And I'm sure McCain would consult her, she being the defacto president, after all. Makes perfect sense that he would.

Good morning, Boodle.

Hey, didja see Joel took the quiz?

And BTW, L.A. Lurker, "loved" the link to the "Web site" featuring all those "incorrect" double "quotes."

E.J. Dionne has an op-ed advocating the selection of Sen. Joe Biden as Veep. I've often thought this myself, but wonder if Biden wouldn't be better as Sec. of Stae. But in any event, the idea does buttress the notion that Biden is the Dem Party's top foreign affairs expert.

Michael Kinsley has an unintentionally funny column criticizing an admittedly dumb newspaper executive notion to cut the staff of the Los Angeles Times down to a ridiculously low number. But here's the irony: in the opening sentence, Kinsley mentions his early experien ce as a copy editor. Then, three sentences later he produces this whopper:

"This article, by Jennifer Saba, a writer whose work I am not familiar with, although that is not intended in any way as an insult, reported that one Randy Michaels, who is described as chief operating officer of the Tribune Co., a media corporation based in Chicago that owns the Chicago Tribune (the company's flagship newspaper, and indeed the one the company is named after) as well as the Los Angeles Times, some TV stations, and the Chicago Cubs Major League Baseball team, among other properties, had told the business community in its so-called "conference call" (a Wall Street ritual in which financial analysts and others are given an oral report on how a company is doing, so they can repeat this information to their customers) that the Tribune Co. intends to address the ongoing distress of the newspaper industry brought on by the Internet -- distress that already has led to massive layoffs and buyouts and a major crisis of confidence if not identity at even the most prestigious and established and, one would have thought, profitable newspapers -- by starting to measure the productivity of the journalists who are employed at the various tentacles of that institution."

Yup, one single sentence. 199 words. (And I love the double quotes around "conference call"). Try and read it out loud. See? Makes your brain hurt, doesn't it? Kinsley later notes his column is 1,003 words. So that one sentence constitutes about 20 percent of his entire column. I'm glad he didn't stay on the copy desk very long.

OK, peeps, more later.

God loves us so much more than we can imagine through Him that died for all, Jesus Christ.

Good morning, friends. Martooni, cry, do whatever, they grow so fast, and before you know it, they're out the door. Enjoy yourself and the moment. Congratulate, Little Bean for me.

Mudge, Slyness, Scotty, get moving guys. Good morning to all *waving*.

Another day, another heat advisory. The temps are going to be high again today. I will try to stay inside and drink plenty of water. Please check on your elderly neighbors and friends.

I read Eugene Robinson this morning, and all the op-ed folks are talking about Hillary Clinton. It seems Mrs. Clinton is getting more press since she quit the race than when she was running for President. I did not see or hear her speech Saturday, Mr.Robinson thinks she did a fantastic job. I believe if Hillary Clinton had listened to her heart and moved according to her gut instead of what her advisors dictated(and I'm including Bill), that speech she gave Saturday could have went the other way.

Time to find some water. The birthday count is almost there. A friend sent me four birthday cards yesterday, and just made my day. I so needed to smile, and the cards did it. Have a great day, folks, and try to keep cool. I don't know how much success you'll have with that last part.

martooni,
That is really cool. Be sure to clap extra loud for Bean from all of us.

All that flash animation on the silly quiz made me late for my bike ride so I could only ride ten miles instead of twelve. Just as well. It is way too humid to be outdoors.

Let's hope the office AC does a little better today but the service tech was serving some serious mumbo jumbo yesterday.

The trick to the genre quiz is to look for the outliers. There are no Arnold Schwarzenegger romantic comedies.

Maggie,
Hope the fixed AC helps the recovery. I'm pulling for you.

mudge,

That Kinsley column is not unintentionally funny; it is deliberately hilarious. It is as hard for Kinsley to write that bad as it is for me to write well.

Step back and read it again. That opening sentence is as great a tour de force as ten minute tracking shot in an Altman movie.

G'morning, everybody!

Not being a movie person, I passed on the quiz. Even if I took it, I'd get such a low score I wouldn't be able to admit it publicly.

Yeah, Mudge, I agree with Yello about Kinsley's column. But then I've always enjoyed his writing.

We had storms in the area last night but nothing fell here. I've done my best; I went through the carwash yesterday. We'll see if that works today.

Enjoy the kindergarteners, Martooni. They do grow up fast (says the mother whose baby just graduated from college.)

Stay cool, my friends!

30/40 on the quiz. More a result of the vast expanses of trivia jammed into my cranium than anything else, I'd say.

There was darn near fog at the train station this morning. With the temperature at 72.

:-O

'toon, those eggs weren't green, by any chance?

*somewhat-soggy-and-keeping-a-watchful-eye-on-the-radar Grover waves*

:-)

It also helps to know, but is not necessary to appreciate the column, that there is a lot of bad blood between Kinsley and the LA Times. His departure was particularly acrimonious, as have most departures from the LA Times in recent years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/13/AR2005091301668.html

And I think that article sugarcoats it a little.

I'm a movie maverick. I got all the ones I knew right (ha), and about 25% of the ones I didn't.

yellojkt writes: "The trick to the genre quiz is to look for the outliers. There are no Arnold Schwarzenegger romantic comedies."

Huh? What about Kindergarten Cop? Junior? Twins? Predator? Conan the Barbarian? And Arnold's most complete love story, Pumping Iron?

Puhleez.

bc

There's an episode in Babylon 5 where all the different alien races hold ceremonies to demonstrate the predominate religions of their home world. Sort of a cultural learning experience for other races to help understanding and bring peoples together. Half the episode is about the Captain trying to think of what to for 'his' ceremony. The episode ends with him taking all the Ambassadors of all the other races on B5 down a line and introducing each to a member of every religious Earth person represented on B5. Catholic, Presbyterian, Atheist, Jew, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Maori, Lakota....

I know I worded that's poorly, and definitely the religious order wrong, but I hope you all get the point.

It was a scene that moved this agnostic to tears.

I stand corrected. The love story arc of Mr. Freeze always brings me to tears. Tiny little ice-cubes of tears.

Portland, Oregon reaches 100 degrees once or twice each summer. On one such afternoon, the driver of my express bus from Lloyd Center to Holgate snuck a big ice chest aboard and had a cool soda pop for everyone.

Not long afterward, he was assigned a stylish route serving NW 23rd, the street of Pottery Barn.

Let me just say "SCC" "SCC" "SCC"

Scary huh.

That bad a post after 8 hours sleep and 32 ounces of diet coke.

I have no excuses.

Why do I always end up with the cranky bus driver who intentionally hits every pothole, then deliberately drives a block past each requested stop or designated passenger pickup spot (with people there waiting)?

I think cold beverages (especially if beer was on the menu) would increase ridership greatly on any bus route.

Well, I guess the time to write this is now, given the post at 12:14 a.m. by reporter, USA, plus the blog site.

I spent yesterday afternoon on the phone with three individuals--in this order: Ruth, deputy to Jacquelyn F. Callanen, elections administrator, Bexar County Elections Department; Joe Kulhavy, staff attorney in the Elections Division of the Texas Secretary of State's office; and Jacquelyn Callanen herself (lots of laughter in this conversation, most of which will remain off the record).

My question is or was: How does one write in a candidate's name for president when using an electronic voting machine?

The conversation with Ruth was short. She explained how an candidate must file papers--and the necessary dates--with the state to get his or her name on the November ballot--not the information that I was seekking. As I pressed her with my questions, she was kind enough to give me the 800-number for the Elections Division of the Texas Secretary of State's office, also informing me that Ms. Callanen was still at lunch.

The young man who answered the phone at the state Elections Division rapidly forwarded my call to attorney Kulhavy. Kulhavy informed me that the the regulation covering write-ins was in Section 161.015 of the Texas Statutes Election Code. I asked if that code were online, upon which he immediately corrected his answer to say that the ruling was in Section 162.015b. He then helped me navigate to that section, since I was already online when I called.

The code reads:

162.015. RESTRICTIONS ON CANDIDACY IN GENERAL ELECTION
BY CANDIDATE OR VOTER IN PRIMARY. (a) A person who voted at a primary election or who was a candidate for nomination in a primary is ineligible for a place on the ballot for the succeeding general
election for state and county officers as:
(b) A person who was a candidate for nomination in a primary election is ineligible for a place on the list of write-in candidates for the succeeding general election for state and county officers as a write-in candidate for the office sought by that candidate in the primary.

When Kulhavy started to explain the history of why this particular part of the elections code had been implemented--after the 1991 election of a county judge in Harris County--I challenged or called him on the wording of this section, pointing out that the wording of 162.015b pertains to state and county officers, not federal. *sigh*

Kulhavy then redirected my attention to Section 192.036, which deals with the steps a candidate must take to place his or her name on the ballot as an independent or third-party candidate, something I'm ever so certain that Hillary Clinton