Here's more data for the raging debate over GOP mischief in last night's Democratic primary in Indiana: On balance, network exit polls show Republican crossover voters expressing little other than a sincere preference for Clinton over Obama.

First, Clinton edged Obama in Indiana's open primary among self-identified Democrats, 52 to 48 percent. And removing all GOP-identifiers from the voter pool does not budge the overall result. Perhaps the focus on non-Democrats is misplaced.

But the topline numbers are so intriguing.

Republicans made up 10 percent of all Democratic voters in Indiana last night, their highest share of the electorate in any Democratic primary this year other than Mississippi. Not only did Clinton win Republicans in Indiana by eight percentage points, but about six in 10 of those who supported her in the primary said they would vote for McCain over Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up. (Most Republicans voting for Obama said they would stick with him in the fall.)

A closer look, however, reveals that most Republicans for Clinton appear to genuinely prefer Clinton to Obama, which was the choice at hand. They opted to vote in one of the hottest elections in years, perhaps with an eye to giving themselves more appealing options in the fall.

About nine in 10 GOP Clinton voters said she would make a better commander in chief, and more than six in 10 said she would have a better shot at beating McCain. They were also more than twice as likely as other voters to prioritize an experienced candidate. And three-quarters of these voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton atop the Dem ticket, just 15 percent said so about Obama.

A narrow majority of Clinton Republicans did say that Clinton does not share their values, but more said so of Obama. All politics is comparative.

And looking at the Indiana exit poll numbers by race also seems to dampen any "Limbaugh effect." Overall, Clinton won the state's white voters by 20 percentage points. Republicans, 95 percent of those who voted Democratic yesterday were white, broke for her by eight points, but that was much narrower than her win among white Democrats: she outpaced Obama by nearly 2-1 among those voters.

Throughout the Democratic party's nomination process, white Catholics have consistently been a strong point for Hillary Clinton, a group among which she tops or ties Barack Obama in almost every single state where exit polling has measured their votes. Exit polling conducted in Pennsylvania shows that Clinton's edge with Catholics is not a function of the demographic makeup of Catholics themselves, but instead cuts across demographic lines.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton racked up her biggest margin yet with white Catholic voters, topping Obama by 44 points. E.J. Dionne asked us to take a look last week, and wrote this column showcasing the findings. The data show that regardless of age, education, sex or income, white Catholics in Pennsylvania were more likely to support Clinton than white Protestants or whites overall. Here's a look at how these groups voted:

Non-college graduates:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	48	71	29	+42
Protestants	53	69	32	+36
Catholics	59	77	23	+54

College graduates:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	52	55	45	+10
Protestants	47	49	51	- 2
Catholics	41	63	37	+26

Household income <$50,000:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	36	67	33	+34
Protestants	38	65	35	+30
Catholics	42	74	26	+48

Household income $50,000+:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	64	60	40	+20
Protestants	62	56	44	+12
Catholics	58	68	32	+36

Men:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	42	57	43	+14
Protestants	39	54	46	+ 8
Catholics	43	66	34	+32

Women:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	58	68	33	+36
Protestants	61	63	35	+26
Catholics	57	76	26	+52

Age 18-44:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	27	56	44	+12
Protestants	28	58	42	+16
Catholics	23	61	39	+22

Age 45+:
	Size	Clinton	Obama	Clinton -Obama
All	73	66	34	+32
Protestants	72	60	40	+20
Catholics	77	75	25	+50

In the tables above, size indicates a group's size within the demographic group being studied, not their portion within the total electorate, e.g. 41 percent of white Catholics are college graduates, 42 percent of all white voters are men, etc.

Public polling has revealed several potentially troubling trends for Barack Obama's campaign over the last few days, from the evaporation of his lead over Hillary Clinton in Gallup's daily tracking poll to a resurgent Clinton outperforming Obama against John McCain in the Associated Press-Ipsos poll, but perhaps none more so than what Newsweek's poll found among the Senator's own partisans.

The poll found the starkest evidence yet that Sen. Barack Obama's run for the presidency has been negatively impacted by the controversy surrounding his outspoken former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who in recent days made his first public appearances since news of his fiery sermons broke last month.

More than three in 10 Democrats reported feeling less favorable towards Obama as a result of what they had heard about Wright, double the percentage who said so in a CBS News poll in March.

And the Newsweek poll found Wright is not the only drag on Obama's popularity among Democrats. Three in 10 view Obama less favorably as a result of his own comments about "bitter" small town residents clinging to guns and religion, and nearly a quarter report being turned off by Obama's answers to questions about why he chooses not to wear an American flag lapel-pin.

On the plus side for the Illinois senator, 41 percent of Democrats said they felt more favorable as a result of the speech Obama gave on race in America in the wake of the uproar over Rev. Wright's sermons.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll from earlier in the month showed Democratic reaction to Wright to be more muted. Three-quarters of Democrats said Obama had done enough or more than enough to distance himself from his former pastor's comments, and just 15 percent were "very concerned" about how Republicans might use Wright's remarks against Obama in a general election campaign.

Now, after a Pennsylvania loss that highlighted Obama's difficulties making inroads into Clinton's white working-class base, the combined impact of these controversies appears to be building up quickly: The Newsweek poll showed the double-digit lead Obama held over Clinton a week ago had been reduced to seven points.

Q: We're interested in how some different things might have influenced your opinion of Barack Obama. Has [item] made your opinion of Obama more favorable, less favorable, or has it not made much difference?

% saying each item has made their
  opinion of Barack Obama "less favorable"

                                   All   Dem   Ind   Rep
Remarks on "bitter" small-towners   42    31    41    57
Seen/heard about Jeremiah Wright    41    31    40    57
Answers about flag pin              29    23    27    39
Seen/heard about Michelle Obama     19    14    19    28
How he has conducted his campaign   17    14    11    27
Foreign-sounding name               16    13    14    22
Speech about race in America        14     9    15    23
Time spent in Indonesia             13    10    11    21
Harvard-law education                6     5     4     8

SOURCE: Newsweek poll conducted April 24-25 among 1,203 registered voters by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Results among the 432 Democrats have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus five points.

The economy and the situation in Iraq have long been the public's top two priorities for this year's presidential election, and on both, more Americans said they think a Democratic president would do a better job handling the issue than a Republican.

By nearly 20-point margins, Americans would choose an unnamed Democrat over a generic Republican president to handle the nation's economy and resolve the situation in Iraq, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Nearly six in 10 preferred a Democrat on the economy and a narrow majority chose a Democrat on Iraq.

The Democratic advantage on the economy appears to run deeper than their edge on Iraq, providing a possible boon for the party's eventual nominee as economic issues grow in prominence.

Swing voter groups such as independents (Democrat by 25 points) and white Catholics (Democrat by 19 points) preferred a Democratic president over a Republican to handle the economy -- by wider margins than on Iraq (18 points and 6 points, respectively).

And even some typically Republican groups were more apt to defect to the Democrats on handling the nation's financial future than managing the situation in Iraq. GOP women gave a hypothetical president from their own party a 64-point edge on Iraq, but that drops to 48 points on the economy. White evangelical Protestants prefer a GOPer over a Democrat on Iraq by a 27-point margin the gap is 11 points on the economy. And white voters without a college degree were about evenly split between the two on Iraq, but gave Democrats a 10-point advantage on the economy.

Republicans themselves were more likely to defect than were Democrats on both issues. On the economy, 18 percent of GOPers said they'd prefer a president of the other party, while 7 percent of Democrats expressed a preference across party lines. On Iraq, 15 percent of Republicans went for the Democrat and 7 percent of Democrats chose the Republican.

It is important to note that while these issues have dominated the presidential campaign, hypothetical match-ups pitting Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama against John McCain are much closer, as each candidate would bring a different set of assets and liabilities to the general election table.

Q: Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, do you think a Democratic or a Republican president would do a better job...

...Handling the economy?

                  Democratic   Republican
All                   55           34

Democrats             89            7
Independents          55           30
Republicans           18           71

Whites                50           38
Blacks                85            6

White evangelical
Protestants           40           51
White Catholics       55           36

White non-college     49           39
White college grad    52           35

Top issue:
Economy               62           26
Iraq                  65           28

National economy:
Excellent/Good        23           71
Not so good           46           41
Poor                  68           20

...Resolving the situation in Iraq?

                  Democratic   Republican
All                   52           35

Democrats             89            7
Independents          51           33
Republicans           15           73

Whites                47           40
Blacks                85            7

White evangelical
Protestants           30           57
White Catholics       48           42

White non-college     45           42
White college grad    50           38

Top issue:
Iraq                  63           31
Economy               61           28

Iraq worth fighting:
Strong/somewhat yes   16           73
Somewhat no           51           35
Strongly no           77           11

Full question wording and more methodological information from the Post-ABC poll can be found at washingtonpost.com/polls.

More than 300,000 Pennsylvanians signed up as Democrats this year to be able to participate in yesterday's Democratic primary, which was limited to party members. Nearly half of those voters were formerly registered as Republicans, according to the Secretary of State, and there has been rampant speculation those voters switched their allegiances only to muck up the Democratic nomination contest.

Radio host Rush Limbaugh, for one, encouraged his Keystone State listeners to vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary, suggesting a prolonged Democratic campaign benefits presumptive GOP nominee John McCain. Limbaugh dubbed the effort "Operation Chaos." While there are signs the extended contest may hurt the eventual Democratic nominee, there's very little evidence new "Democrats" in Pennsylvania were so strategic in their voting.

Yesterday's hotly contested primary did attract record numbers of newly-minted Democrats (they made up 13 percent of the Democratic electorate), but network exit polls show those voters, even an overwhelming percentage of former Republicans, were sincere in their vote choices.

Nearly all new Democrats who voted for Clinton or Barack Obama said they would stick with their choices in a November face-off against McCain. Moreover, majorities said they would support the Democratic nominee even if top choice in the primary did not prevail.

Overall, 96 percent of new Democrats who supported Obama said they would vote for him in the general. Clinton retains the support of 87 percent of her new Democrats.

Looking only at former Republicans, more than eight in 10 said they would repeat their primary vote in the general if that candidate wins the nomination. Just 8 percent said they would switch up and vote for McCain over the Democrat they supported yesterday. (Overall, former Republicans split their votes evenly between Clinton and Obama.)

As the 2008 presidential nomination battle makes its final stop in the Northeast today, opinions about the major players in the race have begun to head south.

As the Post has noted, the percentage rating each of the three presidential candidates unfavorably has climbed since voting began in January according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. But much of the increase has occurred among those who express strongly unfavorable views of each candidate, and for some, there are worrisome demographic trends behind sinking overall ratings.

Nearly four in 10 said they have sharply negative views of Hillary Clinton, up 10 points since January; a quarter had strongly unfavorable views of Barack Obama (an increase of nine points) and two in 10 said the same of John McCain (up eight points).

Former president Bill Clinton, who has been heavily involved in his wife's campaign, has not escaped the spreading discontent. A third said their views on the 42nd president are strongly negative, up seven points since January.

Overall, 54 percent viewed Hillary Clinton negatively, her highest level in Post-ABC polling, and 51 percent had an unfavorable view on her husband, his highest level since leaving office.

As Dan Balz noted yesterday over on The Trail, Hillary Clinton's ratings have taken their biggest hit among independents, flipping from 59 percent favorable to 58 percent unfavorable in just over three months.

But even among Democrats, her favorability fell 10 points and her "strong" favorables declined from 55 percent to 41 percent.

Racial tensions provoked during the hotly contested nomination fight may be a big factor (check out Krissah Williams's take on this for a deeper examination ). Clinton's ratings among black Democrats have fallen precipitously, from 55 percent strongly favorable in January to 24 percent in the latest poll.

Some of the shine is off the "first black president" as well: 37 percent of black Democrats held "strongly favorable" views of Bill Clinton in this poll, about half as many as did so at the beginning of the campaign.

Overall favorability ratings for both Clintons have declined double-digits among African American Democrats.

Despite these faltering ratings, Hillary Clinton's favorability among Democrats is equivalent to Obama's, about three-quarters viewed each favorably, although Obama held a slightly higher "strongly favorable" rating, 48 percent, about the same as it was in January.

But Obama's stable ratings mask the shifts occurring among some groups he's tried hard to reach out to in Pennsylvania. Among white Democrats without college degrees and those in households with incomes of less than $50,000 per year, his overall favorability rating has remained the same since January, but the percentage rating him strongly unfavorable has grown double-digits.

The candidate with the least on the line today, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, hit a high-point in favorability among his own partisans, with 81 percent of Republicans expressing positive views of the Arizona senator and 66 percent of conservatives agreeing. Among independents, McCain's favorability dipped to 51 percent from a career high of 60 in mid-January.

UPDATE: After the jump, crosstabs on Clinton and Obama among Democrats.

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Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain's temperament came under close scrutiny in Michael Leahy's big piece in yesterday's paper, and his disposition may be a factor in the November election. Nearly half of voters in the new Post-ABC poll believe his temperament would hamper the Arizona senator in the White House.

Overall, 48 percent of all Americans in the poll released last week said McCain's temperament would hurt his ability to serve effectively as president. Fewer, 37 percent, said his often strident tenor would make him more successful.

Three in 10 Republicans and about four in 10 conservatives and white evangelical Protestants alike think McCain's temperament would prove to be a negative factor as president. Among independents, the crucial swing voters, nearly half said his temperament would hurt his effectiveness, with independent women particularly apt to take the negative view. (About two-thirds of Democrats agree.)

For McCain, his temperament ranks with Barack Obama's experience and Hillary Clinton's political style as potential limiting factors in the White House. Overall, 51 percent said Obama's level of experience would impair his effectiveness, and 49 percent said Clinton's political manner would damage hers.

Pope Benedict XVI did not expect to fly into an America still captivated by a heated election, but his arrival in Washington comes just a week before a crucial Democratic primary and amid increasingly heated general election rhetoric.

Catholics make up about a quarter of all voters in the United States, and white Catholics in particular have been a key swing group in presidential elections going back to 1972 (when modern exit polling began). White Catholics have opted for the winner in all nine of the last presidential contests, sharing that distinction with political independents.

The new Washington Post-ABC News poll offers a glimpse at their views on this year's contest.

John McCain holds a slight edge over either Democratic nominee among white Catholics in the new poll, besting Hillary Clinton 54 percent to 44 percent, and topping Obama by a similar margin, 53 percent to 42 percent.

More than nine in 10 white Catholics in the new poll said they are paying close attention to the presidential contest, and economy and the situation in Iraq are their top two concerns for the general election (those are also tops for other Americans).

The pope hosts his first public mass in the United States today, and white Catholics are split on whether they prefer the pontiff to maintain the traditional policies of the Church or change policies to reflect the attitudes and lifestyles of Catholics today. And core concerns of the Vatican are low on the top issues list of Catholic voters - just one percent said abortion is their top issue in the November election, and less than 1 percent cited morals or family values.

As Major League Baseball's first post-Mitchell Report season gets underway, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds seven in 10 fans believe at least a quarter of the game's players use steroids to improve their performance.

That's up twenty percentage points from July 2002 and includes a third who say at least half of major leaguers use such drugs. About half of fans say the issue matters "a lot" to them, and CBS reports that older fans are more likely to be concerned about players' drug use than younger fans.

But many, 46 percent, remain interested in the nation's pasttime, and heading into the new season, the team with the league's highest payroll also boasts the two top fan favorites: New York Yankees Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Nine percent cite Jeter as their favorite player, five percent say A-Rod is their top pick.

Five players - Barry Bonds (as yet unsigned this season and a major figure in the league's steroid imbroglio), the Cincinnati Reds' Ken Griffey, Jr., the Atlanta Braves' Chipper Jones, David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox and Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals - tie for third at two percent each.

Nearly half of all fans, 48 percent, said they didn't have a current favorite or weren't sure. This baseball fan shares her favorite, David Wright of the New York Mets, with one percent of all MLB fans.

The new Pew Research Center survey released today finds little change in either the primary contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama or the potential general election match-ups between either Democrat and John McCain. But potential negatives on both Democratic candidates are percolating beneath the stable horse-race numbers.

Obama appears to have beaten back the controversy over sermons by his pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, but the incident has scratched the veneer of inevitability that had started to surround the Illinois senator.

The proportion of Democrats who believe Obama is more likely to win the nomination than Clinton has declined 13 points since February, from 70 percent to 57 percent, with the bulk of the change due to increased confidence among Clinton supporters that their candidate has the better shot. In February, just a third of her backers said she was more likely to win the nomination, 51 percent said so in the new poll.

But the new poll finds Clinton hampered by negative assessments of her personal qualities by an electorate in which just a quarter see significant policy differences between the two candidates. More on the challenges faced by both candidates after the jump.

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