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BTN: Fred Thompson

Fred Thompson (who dropped out of the presidential race this afternoon), Behind the Numbers...

Percentage of votes (place): Iowa 13% (3rd), Wyoming 25% (2nd), New Hampshire 1% (6th), Michigan 4% (5th), Nevada 8% (5th), South Carolina 16% (3rd).

Highest point in a Post-ABC national poll: 19%, Sept. 6-9, just after he announced his candidacy on The Tonight Show.

Reallocating his supporters from most recent Post-ABC national poll to their second choices (same for California congressman Duncan Hunter who also recently ended his bid): McCain 30%, Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, Paul 5%.

Here's a profile of Thompson's supporters from two key early states.* (Lists percentage of Thompson supporters in each category; e.g., half of his supporters in Iowa called themselves evangelical or born-again Christians, as did 60% in South Carolina.)

                       Iowa  S.C.   
%Evangelical             50   60
%Weekly churchgoers      NA   63
%Conservative            97   81
%Very conservative       70   47
Age 
%18-44                   17   39
%45-64                   62   42
%65+                     21   19
Top issue
%Economy                 21   30
%Immigration             43   35
Top candidate quality
%"Says what he believes" 50   35
%"Shares my values"      39   55

*From NEP entrance and exit polls. There were not enough Thompson supporters in New Hampshire to break out those data.

By Jon Cohen  |  January 22, 2008; 3:16 PM ET
 
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Comments

Go Johnny!!

Posted by: Anonymous | January 22, 2008 4:03 PM | Report abuse

In a Republican party where everybody seems to have divergent opinions, it is sometimes hard to stand back and appreciate the similarities, not only between the candidates, but between a candidate and his party's platform. For many Republicans, and most true conservatives, this cycle has been a dissapointing, if not alarming one. It comes on the heels of two terms of expansionist foreign adventurism, deficit spending, wasteful government programs, gross federal mismanagement, and repeated scandal. That the very nature of conservatism has become a prime issue to Republicans is indicative of the fractures in the party and its electorate.

If you take away the names and the (R)'s and the rhetoric and look, side-by-side at the records of the Republican candidates, some trends become apparent. The majority of Republicans seeking nomination do not set any sort of conservative standard in their projects or voting record. Some could even be classified objectively as liberal! Mass amnesty for illegal immigrants? No Child Left Behind? Raising taxes 47 percent? One called Barry Goldwater an "incompetent, confused, and sometimes idiotic man." The list goes on, but the party will not, if candidates think that a hawkish foreign policy and some lipservice to small government are the only credentials necessary for success.

The Ron Paul community has always had a bit of a soft spot for Fred Thompson. He isn't taken to cackling at ideas of small government, he isn't keen on snap judgements, and he cares about the core of the Republican party. When our candidate was excluded from a Fox Debate, Fred brought up many of the same issues that Ron may have raised. While it is a competition, we always felt glad that at least somebody else understood the principles of conservatism, and the important thing was that the message was being heard. But now Fred Thompson has left us, after rough showings in states that wear their philosophy on their sleeves until it comes time to actually vote. This is disheartening, because the future of our party and of the very word 'conservative,' we feel, has now been winnowed down to one last candidate... Ron Paul.

We need a coalition of thinkers, of people who can look past the rhetoric, see beyond the posturing. We need conservatives in mind and spirit. This is our party, and it is a confused one. But we must never confuse our principles, and in that refusal, we can light the way to victory and a restoration of real values in government.

Will you join us?

Fred Thompson on the issues:
http://www.fred08.com/Pri...
Ron Paul on the issues: http://www.ronpaul2008.co...

Posted by: GeorgiaDan | January 22, 2008 5:27 PM | Report abuse

Guys these numbers are estimated support as of 1/12 (before Michigan) plus estimated support from Fred. These numbers are not where Fred's support goes to.

McCain 30%, Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, Paul 5%.

Please try to understand. The author does not make this clear. Fred's support is mostly going to Romney.

Posted by: Greg | January 22, 2008 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Thompson's exit seals the deal for Romney.

Posted by: phansen0 | January 23, 2008 11:38 AM | Report abuse

I am a FredHead.

We FredHeads will, by and large, not support Huckabee or McCain. Most of us will gravitate to Romney, crossing our fingers that his recent conversions (abortion, immigration, federalism) are legit.

Posted by: Jordan | January 24, 2008 12:35 AM | Report abuse

A Warning--Bush's Brain For Sale

As the presidential campaign gains momentum in favor of change, it would appear that the neo-cons, the hierarchy of the status quo, remain curiously calm. The Democratic frontrunners and the National Committee would collectively commit a grave error by breathing any sigh of relief upon the departure of Karl Rove from his perch in the Oval Office. One must only examine the qualifications, credentials, and history which earned Rove the position of Deputy Chief of Staff to the Great Imposter. First and foremost, Rove is a college dropout with no degrees, licenses, or prerequisites for professional life. He is, however, an accomplished liar, schemer, and character assassin. On several occasions throughout his "career", Rove has successfully demonstrated his "abilities." When George W. Bush's gubernatorial campaign in Texas had fallen far behind the Democratic opposition, Rove concealed a listening device in his own office. Rather than notify law enforcement, Rove summoned the media. Further, he succeeded in preempting the investigation by the Republican run FBI until after the election. The negative press, reminiscent of the Watergate era, erased the Democratic advantage. It was later discovered that the bug had been planted approximately fifteen minutes prior to the arrival of the media. Another example of Rove-style political maneuvering occurred in 2002. Upon receiving advance notice of Pope John Paul II's condemnation of the war in Iraq, Rove assembled a goon squad of tabloid-type investigators and professional propagandists to sabotage the proclamation. To discredit the Catholic Church in its entirety, Rove's team flooded the media with allegations of sexual misconduct on the part of the clergy some of them dating back twenty-five years. This practice is indicative of Rove's formula of exploiting personal tragedy for political profit.

Rove's principle tool of choice is fear. He is a master of shifting the focus of a legitimate issue to that of unsubstantiated phobias. He was cleverly able to convince an entire population of voters that, in return for sacrificing their children for oil profits, the President would prevent gay Americans from getting married in their churches. Rove, along with Addington and Chaney, implemented the residual fears of 9/11 to expand the powers of the presidency to a near-dictatorship. The Bush administration has done absolutely nothing to prevent nineteen individuals from hijacking four airplanes and flying them into population centers except ordering the installation of locks on cockpit doors, what genius.

It is a foregone conclusion that the domestic as well as international policies of the current administration are dictated by private interests. Lobbyists have written the majority of legislation passed in the last eight years. These same multinational corporations stand to lose billions of dollars resulting from any shift in these policies. Despite the fact that Rove has vacated the Oval Office, he remains an independent contractor, available for employment by the Republican Party as well as the corporate oligarchy, which it represents. Rove has inexhaustible resources to be used for the purchase of media time. He will continue to develop a network of investigators, tabloid journalists, and political thugs who will assassinate the character of any individual or organization opposed to the doctrines dictated by this self-proclaimed illuminati. Based upon his resume, it's the only work for which he is qualified.

Posted by: misterconcept | January 24, 2008 1:06 AM | Report abuse

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Posted by: jwholtkamp | January 30, 2008 6:48 AM | Report abuse

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

Posted by: jwholtkamp | January 30, 2008 6:55 AM | Report abuse

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

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