More "Sincere" Crossover
Here's more data for the raging debate over GOP mischief in last night's Democratic primary in Indiana: On balance, network exit polls show Republican crossover voters expressing little other than a sincere preference for Clinton over Obama.
First, Clinton edged Obama in Indiana's open primary among self-identified Democrats, 52 to 48 percent. And removing all GOP-identifiers from the voter pool does not budge the overall result. Perhaps the focus on non-Democrats is misplaced.
But the topline numbers are so intriguing.
Republicans made up 10 percent of all Democratic voters in Indiana last night, their highest share of the electorate in any Democratic primary this year other than Mississippi. Not only did Clinton win Republicans in Indiana by eight percentage points, but about six in 10 of those who supported her in the primary said they would vote for McCain over Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up. (Most Republicans voting for Obama said they would stick with him in the fall.)
A closer look, however, reveals that most Republicans for Clinton appear to genuinely prefer Clinton to Obama, which was the choice at hand. They opted to vote in one of the hottest elections in years, perhaps with an eye to giving themselves more appealing options in the fall.
About nine in 10 GOP Clinton voters said she would make a better commander in chief, and more than six in 10 said she would have a better shot at beating McCain. They were also more than twice as likely as other voters to prioritize an experienced candidate. And three-quarters of these voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton atop the Dem ticket, just 15 percent said so about Obama.
A narrow majority of Clinton Republicans did say that Clinton does not share their values, but more said so of Obama. All politics is comparative.
And looking at the Indiana exit poll numbers by race also seems to dampen any "Limbaugh effect." Overall, Clinton won the state's white voters by 20 percentage points. Republicans, 95 percent of those who voted Democratic yesterday were white, broke for her by eight points, but that was much narrower than her win among white Democrats: she outpaced Obama by nearly 2-1 among those voters.
By Jon Cohen |
May 7, 2008; 5:29 PM ET
Exit polls
Previous: White Catholics for Clinton: A Demographic Look |
Next: Clinton's Broader Base?
Posted by: Nate P | May 7, 2008 7:25 PM
I think all know these numbers and all know what they implicate. Having borrowed 11.5 Million dollars since February doesn't make it easier for Sen.Clinton.
Even if she would want out, how could she? I read all over that it is time to do so, but no one has - as usual - an exit strategy.
The longer she stays in, the more powerful she will be in the Seate afterwards.
Posted by: Nicescool | May 7, 2008 7:49 PM
Obama won IN urban areas, Clinton won the rest. Deduct the 12,000 Republican vote edge from Hillary and they ran even in popular vote. Hillary will win KY and WV but not by enough to make a difference and the race will be over when OR is counted, if not before.
Posted by: Jimbo | May 7, 2008 9:13 PM
You must be delusional. It's no coincidence that Clinton began winning white male voters only when Limbaugh suggested Republicans cross over. Prior to McCain securing the nomination, white males were strongly favoring obama.
Regarding exit polls, I suggest that you look at the exit polling in Mississippi.
To believe that Clinton has miraculously won over blue collar, Limbaugh Republicans
who are going to vote for her in the general election is not only ridiculous, but sounds like "Republican"spin akin to "mission accomplished."
Posted by: sherry | May 7, 2008 11:31 PM
I see two factors at work 'at this point'. 1. This is no Republican crossover, there are people who voted for Bush and now realize they were sold down the river to corporate America.
2. There is the Barack backlash, that being the more voters see blacks going to the polls and only voting for Obama, no state or local elections voted in. When an informed electorate see 90% of blacks voting for Obama - it's the blacks that are playing the race card and by the convention it could be Hillary.
Posted by: jw84586 | May 8, 2008 7:42 AM
Boy, he tells 'em!
&n! bsp; YES, I'M A BAD AMERICAN
I Am the Liberal-Progressives Worst Nightmare. I am an American.
I believe the money I make belongs to me and my family, not some Liberal governmental functionary be it Democratic or Republican!
I'm in touch with my feelings and I like it that way!
I think owning a gun doesn't make you a killer, it makes you a smart American.
I think being a minority does not make you noble or victimized, and does not entitle you to anything.
I believe that if you are selling me a Big Mac, do it in English.
I believe everyone has a right to pray to his or her God when and where they want to.
My heroes are John Wayne, Babe Ruth, Roy Rogers, and whoever canceled Jerry Springer.
I know wrestling is fake and I don't waste my time watching or arguing about it.
I've never owned a slave, or was a slave, I haven't burned any witches or been persecuted by the Turks and neither have you! So, shut up already.
I believe if you don't like the way things are here, go back to where you came from and change your own country! This is AMERICA.
If you were born here and don't like it you are free to move to any Socialist country that will have you.
I want to know which church is it exactly where the Reverend Jesse Jackson preaches, where he gets his money, and why he is always part of the problem and not the solution. Can I get an AMEN on that one?
I think the cops have every right to shoot your sorry rear if you're running from them..
I also think they have the right to pull you over if you're breaking the law, regardless of what color you are.
And, no, I don't mind having my face shown on my drivers license. I think it's good..... And I'm proud that 'God' is written on my money.
I think if you are too stupid to know how a ballot works, I don't want you deciding who should be running the most powerful nation in the world for the next four years.
I dislike those people standing in the intersections trying to sell me stuff or trying to guilt me into making 'donations' to their cause.
I believe that it doesn't take a village to raise a child, it takes two parents.
I believe 'illegal' is illegal no matter what the lawyers think.
I believe the American flag should be the only one allowed in AMERICA !
If this makes me a BAD American, then yes, I'm a BAD American.
If you are a BAD American too, please forward this to everyone you know.
We want our country back!
God Bless America ! ! !
! &nbs p; have a great day.............Ginny
Posted by: maggieb | May 8, 2008 7:55 AM
Please get over calling Blacks racist because they cast their vote for Senator Obama. There is nothing racist about that. Just like a great many women cast their vote for Senator Clinton...because woman are thrilled that they have the opportunity to vote for a woman that really has a chancee of winning, that is the same sentiment that Blacks have towards Senator Obama. Don't criticize Blacks for being just as proud for Obama (who happens to be White and Black); it is the same feeling that woman have for Senator Clinton because she is a female. Having said that, remember... the majority of Blacks have always voted for a Democrate...Bill Clinton got an overwhelmingly % of the Black vote when he ran, both terms. Senator Clinton could have gotten more of the Black vote in this election but she hurt herself by not sticking to the issues. She purposely personally attack Senator Obama and that is the reason why Blacks turned to him...not because they are racist. There are a lot of Black women that would have voted for Senator Clinton...but she played too dirty...it is not a racist thing at all...
Posted by: dani112074@yahoo.com | May 8, 2008 8:06 AM
ST. ANTHONY, Idaho -- A suspected illegal immigrant has been charged with raping a 10-year-old girl who later gave birth in eastern Idaho.
The girl gave birth less than two weeks ago by caesarian section at Madison Memorial Hospital in Rexburg, Fremont County Sheriff Ralph C. Davis and other authorities said. Officials would not disclose the gender, date of birth or paternity of the baby.
"I wouldn't have believed a 10-year-old could conceive in the first place," Davis said.
A hospital spokeswoman would not discuss the condition of the girl or the baby and would not say whether either was still in the hospital Wednesday.
The story was first reported by KIDK Television in Idaho Falls.
St. Anthony police began investigating on April 28 after medical officials reported a pregnant child, and Guadalupe Gutierrez-Juarez, 37, of St. Anthony, was arrested the same day, Police Chief James Smith said.
"We had good information from witnesses," Smith said.
In documents that were filed April 29 in 7th District Court and obtained by The Associated Press, Gutierrez-Juarez is charged with one count of rape. He remained in jail with bail set at $250,000 pending a preliminary hearing May 13.
Authorities said Gutierrez-Juarez did not have legal documentation to live in the United States. His home town and nationality were not immediately clear, but police said they had received no complaints about him before investigating the pregnancy.
The investigation was continuing. Smith would not give details on the condition of the girl but said additional counts of rape could be filed.
"The prosecutor is still considering doing that," he said.
Prosecutor Karl H. Lewies did not return telephone calls Wednesday from The AP.
Child protection laws prohibit the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare from confirming whether the agency was contacted about the case, spokesman Tom Shanahan said.
"In a situation like that, we probably would be contacted by the hospital," Shanahan said. "If there was a crime committed we would be working with local law enforcement."
If the girl's home is found to be unsafe, a custody hearing would be held immediately and the courts would decide where to place her, Shanahan said.
"If they decide the child needs foster care, we would do that immediately," he said.
While a 10-year-old giving birth is highly unusual, it is not impossible, said Laurie Krieger, a medical anthropologist in Washington D.C.
"We do know that girls in the U.S. are menstruating sooner," a development which can speed up the production of sex hormones and make pregnancy possible earlier than might have been thought likely, Kreiger said.
Nutrition, body mass and other factors, including the fact that children in the United States weigh more than in past generations, contribute to early menstruation, she added.
Posted by: CONCERNED CITIZEN | May 8, 2008 9:42 AM
In other news, recent polling of convicted felons in prison indicate most are innocent.
Lets think about this. If your goal was to support the inferior opposition candidate, why would you admit your assessment of that candidate to an exit poller. It kind of defeats the purpose. Now when asked about what you would do in the general you are stuck. You want your real candidate, McCain, to look better so you are more likely to answer that question truthfully.
Given that analysis, if you subtract the Republican vote for each candidate who said they would not vote for that candidate in the general, Obama is the winner. How is that not the lead?
Republicans were/are gaming the Democratic primary. The only question left is by how much.
Posted by: KenM1 | May 8, 2008 3:16 PM
And now let me respond to the accusation that blacks are playing the race card.
1) Blacks originally supported Clinton over Obama
2) Clinton has been trying to divide the electorate along racial lines conceding the black vote to Obama in exchange for more of the white vote since right before South Carolina. Remember the Jesse Jackson comment.
Sure some blacks are voting Obama out of racial loyalty, but it is also true that Clinton has been pushing blacks away. For example how long has she been marginalizing the black vote by saying that it doesn't count. I bet if someone said your vote wasn't as important as someone else's, you'd be less likely to vote for them too.
Clinton's poor showing among blacks has a lot to do with how she ran her campaign. She gambled. She lost. Get over it.
Posted by: KenM1 | May 8, 2008 3:37 PM
It is a happy day and a sad day when its
time for change some people go ape crazy
because the color of a man!s skin is a problem it sounds like tome that some of
the whites feel that they are entitled to run america but america was built on the blood sweat and tears of many races come on
please wake up and see that america needs to live up to WHAT IT HAS STATED ALL THE
YEARS FROM THE FOUNDING FATHERS BECAUSE UNTIL NOW AMERICA HAS NOT DONE THAT BUT ARE SO CLOSE MEN ARE ONLY CREATED EQUAL FROM WHAT I SEE IF YOU ARE WHITE
SHARON JOHNSON
FORT WORTH TEXAS
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 3:38 PM
Face the facts, together Obama and Hillary can place a democratic president in the seat. It was stated that if Hillary won Indiania by less than 5%, it was over. Okay, there it is, she she won by 2%, so now. They need to unite and have Hillary and Obama campaign their butts off to place the DNC a democratic president in the seat. That way all will be a winner including the American people too. Time is crucial and America is falling in so many areas at present. Obama and Hillary needs to do what's best for the American people right now, and let go of their super egos. Hillary needs to step down off her high horse and respect the fact that Obama is the best elect. Obama needs to communicate the fact to Hillary that together they both can do this, only if she will listen. The super delegates should remain undecided until a solid conclusion results via the actions of both Obama and Hillary and the surrounding circumstances. No need to pressure no one. Time will tell, as the time has been moved to around June 15, 2008. Technically, Obama has won yet it's apparent that this would occur in his instance, of course. Good luck all!
Posted by: Nisey01 | May 8, 2008 7:56 PM
America needs to get it together. We are a great land, in which the Creator have bless us all with. Yet, the separation that man caters too is only hastening our own destruction. If, the people would turn from their evil ways, than our land could be healed. Look at all these tornadoes, earthquakes, destructive winds and the like. The Creator is not pleased, we need to unite, come together, acknowdge and accept the truth that man is causing their own destruction, and it is happening more closely than it did in the past. Here we are fighting over the fact that Obama, a black man has won the race, yet we claim to be a land of equal opportunity, sheepishly harboring hatred in our hearts. Steadfastly, trying to reverse reality and hinder another's chosen position for you know whatever reasons. Hillary is not acting alone, she has been defeated and life goes on. We need to acknowledge and accept the fact that Obama has won by all means and start preparation in unity for his upcoming debates with McCain. It is so sad that all is fair until...God Bless America!
Posted by: Nisey01 | May 8, 2008 8:07 PM
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It seems silly to me to look at exit polling data to decide whether or not Republicans are gaming the system to their advantage. There isn't anything to make them more likely to tell the truth to a pollster than on their party preference form.