Archive: Exit polls
In the Margins
The nominating conventions are over, but their impact is starting to emerge in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out today. Here's a look at how the new race stacks up to exit poll results from the previous two presidential contests. Each row shows the margin among that group for...
By Jennifer Agiesta | September 8, 2008; 08:56 PM ET | Comments (5)
Iowa Without Edwards
Would Hillary Clinton have won Iowa if John Edwards had been forced out of the race? Howard Wolfson thinks so.... Wolfson, former director of communications for Clinton's presidential bid, suggested to ABC News that the New York senator would have prevailed in Iowa had Edwards been forced from the race...
By Jon Cohen | August 11, 2008; 11:07 AM ET | Comments (291)
Delving Deeper on Black Turnout
A little over a week ago, Behind The Numbers took a look at Obama's ability to turn red states blue simply by boosting black turnout over 2004 levels, and found that if all else remained the same, few states would flip without monumental increases. Even assuming 95 percent of African...
By Jennifer Agiesta | July 28, 2008; 11:10 AM ET | Comments (9)
New Exit Poll Tables
Thanks to ABC News, we now have our clearest view yet of all the voters who participated in caucuses and primaries in the 39 states that had exit polls. ABC is one of six partners in the National Election Pool (NEP), which sponsors the exit polls conducted by Edison-Mitofsky, and...
By Jon Cohen | June 4, 2008; 05:26 PM ET | Comments (2)
Clinton's Broader Base?
UPDATE: This post has been updated to correct Bush's margin among white voters in 2000. Hillary Clinton's comments to USA Today arguing that her support among white voters in the primaries provides her with a broader base of support have set the blogosphere abuzz. In the interview, Clinton referred to...
By Jennifer Agiesta | May 8, 2008; 05:08 PM ET | Comments (175)
More "Sincere" Crossover
Here's more data for the raging debate over GOP mischief in last night's Democratic primary in Indiana: On balance, network exit polls show Republican crossover voters expressing little other than a sincere preference for Clinton over Obama. First, Clinton edged Obama in Indiana's open primary among self-identified Democrats, 52 to...
By Jon Cohen | May 7, 2008; 05:29 PM ET | Comments (0)
White Catholics for Clinton: A Demographic Look
Throughout the Democratic party's nomination process, white Catholics have consistently been a strong point for Hillary Clinton, a group among which she tops or ties Barack Obama in almost every single state where exit polling has measured their votes. Exit polling conducted in Pennsylvania shows that Clinton's edge with Catholics...
By Jennifer Agiesta | May 2, 2008; 05:10 PM ET | Comments (11)
Little GOP Mischief in Penn.
More than 300,000 Pennsylvanians signed up as Democrats this year to be able to participate in yesterday's Democratic primary, which was limited to party members. Nearly half of those voters were formerly registered as Republicans, according to the Secretary of State, and there has been rampant speculation those voters switched...
By Jon Cohen | April 23, 2008; 01:31 PM ET | Comments (0)
A Better Uniter?
Addressing a former pastor's impolitic racial remarks in a speech today, Sen. Barack Obama attempted to reassert himself as the candidate best able unite the country. Throughout the early nominating contests Obama held an edge over Sen. Hillary Clinton as a "uniter," and in a new Newsweek national poll the...
By Jennifer Agiesta | March 18, 2008; 02:17 PM ET | Comments (4)
An education gap among white voters
Today, Behind the Numbers shows the sizable "education gap" in Democratic voting patterns. In Post-ABC national polling, Clinton consistently scored better among voters without college degrees than among those with more education, and the pattern has held firm in primaries across the country. In fact, education has been a key...
By Jon Cohen | February 15, 2008; 01:44 PM ET | Comments (182)
Democratic Demographics: Past and Future
Here's an update on last month's demographic preview. The first table shows the change from 2004 exit polls among key demographic groups. Below that you'll find demographics from the 2004 National Election Pool exit polls for all the remaining states where exit polling was conducted. The strong turnout in Democratic...
By Jennifer Agiesta | February 14, 2008; 05:51 PM ET | Comments (2)
Tale of the tape: Clinton vs. Obama
One helpful way to see the closely contested race between Clinton and Obama is to look across all 24 Democratic exit polls conducted by Edison-Mitofsky that included both candidates (there was an exit poll in Michigan, but Obama was not on the ballot there). For example, Obama won black voters...
By Jon Cohen | February 13, 2008; 01:50 AM ET | Comments (38)
Parsing the GOP: Evangelicals
Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." Evangelical Christians: On Super Tuesday, evangelical Christians boosted Mike Huckabee in the south, where he picked up his first wins since Iowa. But in states...
By Jennifer Agiesta | February 7, 2008; 06:56 PM ET | Comments (6)
Parsing the GOP: The Bush Factor
Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." These are the voters to watch on Tuesday, and we'll take a look at each in a series of posts here on Behind the Numbers....
By Jennifer Agiesta | February 2, 2008; 06:06 PM ET | Comments (5)
Parsing the GOP: 'Independents'
Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." These are the voters to watch on Tuesday, and we'll take a look at each in a series of posts here on Behind the Numbers....
By Jennifer Agiesta | February 1, 2008; 12:26 PM ET | Comments (84)
Parsing the GOP: Economy Voters
Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." These are the voters to watch on Tuesday, and we'll take a look at each in a series of posts here on Behind the Numbers....
By Jennifer Agiesta | January 31, 2008; 03:31 PM ET | Comments (9)
Giuliani's exit, and the role of endorsements
Giuliani's collapse from national front-runner to his swift exit after a disappointing showing in Florida is one for the record books, and the subject for another day, but where do his voters go? Perhaps anticipating Giuliani's demise (pre-election polls nailed this one), exit pollsters in Florida asked GOP voters for...
By Jon Cohen | January 30, 2008; 06:30 PM ET | Comments (0)
Obama 2008 vs. Jackson 1988
Former Pres. Bill Clinton caused a stir this week by comparing Barack Obama's success in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's in 1988 and 1984. But an analysis of the data shows that, while there are some similarities, Obama has already crossed racial divides in his presidential bid that Jackson...
By Jon Cohen | January 28, 2008; 11:00 AM ET | Comments (169)
Behind Obama's Big S.C. Win
Preview: Our story in the Sunday Post is headlined "Black Vote Vital, but Not the Whole Story." Obama was the overwhelming favorite among African American voters, and he picked up a quarter of white voters. As in previous contests, he did especially well among younger, better educated and wealthier voters....
By Jon Cohen | January 26, 2008; 10:29 PM ET | Comments (37)
