One of the major disagreements between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) is which of the two can more effectively broaden the general election playing field.

Clinton's campaign points to polling in Florida, Arkansas and Ohio that shows her running close to or ahead of Sen. John McCain(Ariz.); Obama's campaign makes the same argument for Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina and even ruby red Kansas.

So, who's right?

Welcome to the newest Fix Line where we try to answer just that question. Once a month -- in between ranking the top House and Senate races as well as handicapping the Veepstakes, we'll consider the ten states most likely to switch from Democrat to Republican (or vice versa) in the presidential election this fall.

Obviously, this Line -- like all the others -- is fluid and will change as events unfold. The state ranked number one today, meaning it is the most likely to switch from red to blue or blue to red in November, might fall far down the Line by the time the air grows crisp and the Catholic University field hockey season starts.

In other words, stay tuned. The Presidential Playing Field is meant as a conversation-starter not a conversation-ender -- so get to it in the comments section below.

To the Line!

10. Missouri (Bush, 53 percent in 2004): The Show-Me State is one of the truest election barometers out there. Only once in the last 100 plus years has Missouri gone for a candidate who did not ultimately win the White House. Democrats seemed to be on the decline in the early part of the decade as Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) pulled out of the state in 2004 under the belief he couldn't win. (He lost to President Bush 53 percent to 46 percent.) But, since that election Democrats are on the move in the state -- typified by Sen. Claire McCaskill's (D) win over Jim Talent in 2006. The state is still conservative-minded on most social issues, however, which could make it something of a longshot for either Obama or Clinton.

9. Minnesota (Kerry, 51 percent): Most people think of Minnesota as a dyed-in-the-wool blue state, but Kerry carried it by only three points in 2004. Democrats blew the doors off Republicans in the Gopher State in 2006 by taking an open Senate seat and winning an upset victory in the 1st congressional district. The wildcard here, of course, is Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.) who is almost certain to be in the final pool of potential vice presidential picks for McCain. If Pawlenty is picked, Minnesota is in play and could certainly move up the Line.

8. Florida (Bush, 52 percent): Heading into the 2004 election, it was assumed that Florida would be THE battleground between Bush and Kerry, as it was for Bush and then vice president Al Gore in 2000. The Sunshine State race wound up not being all that close; Bush took 52 percent and a winning vote margin of nearly 300,000. Since then Republicans have elected Charlie Crist governor -- another of the great-mentioned when it comes to McCain's veep. Our guess it that Florida in 2008 looks more like 2000 than 2004 -- especially if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

7. New Hampshire (Kerry, 50 percent): In the 2006 election, New Hampshire was the epicenter of the rejection of Republican rule in Washington. Voters threw out both House Republican incumbents and re-elected the state's Democratic governor with 74 percent of the vote. In this election cycle, Democrats have their sights clearly set on Sen. John Sununu (R). And yet, it's hard to imagine this state not being competitive at the presidential level with McCain as the GOP nominee; Granite State voters created McCain in 2000 and saved him eight years later. There is real affinity there and, given the close result in 2004, the state is almost certainly in play.

6. Virginia (Bush, 54 percent): Just four years ago, you would have been laughed at by mentioning Virginia as a potential swing state in the general election. After all, the Commonwealth hasn't gone for a Democrat at the presidential level since Lyndon Johnson way back in 1964. But, the election of Mark Warner (D) as governor in 2001, which once looked like just a blip on the Republican radar, has turned into the seminal moment for the Democratic comeback in the state. Gov. Tim Kaine's (D) win in 2005 followed by Sen. Jim Webb's (D) upset victory in 2006 gave Democrats reason to believe again. The massive growth of the northern Virginia suburbs and the area's increasing Democratic lean makes Virginia truly a toss up. McCain's military background could well help him in the Hampton Roads area, but, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, the Commonwealth's 19 percent black population could also make a major difference.

5. Ohio (Bush, 51 percent): If Ohio in 2004 was the Florida of 2000, what will be the Ohio of 2008? The 2006 election was an absolute disaster for the state Republican Party as they lost the governor's mansion (badly) and watched as Sen. Mike DeWine (R) was defeated. Ohio Republicans now hold just one of the six statewide offices. While the disaster that is the Ohio GOP at the moment makes it very tough for them to win statewide races, McCain and the Republican National Committee will fund and build their voter identification and get out the vote effort. This is going to be a really good one.

4. Colorado (Bush, 52 percent): No state in the country has changed as fast as Colorado. Since 2004, Democrats have won an open Senate seat, the governorship and two U.S. House seats. The progressive movement in Colorado is as active, well funded, and ready to make a major push to turn the state blue in November. Registered Republicans still outnumber registered Democrats, but unaffiliated voters are a large and growing segment. McCain's ties to the west should help his cause but Colorado looks like it's moving in the opposite direction.

3. Nevada (Bush, 50 percent): Every four years the presidential campaign arrives in Nevada and finds an almost entirely new state. Nevada is one of the fastest growing states in the Union, with people from all over the country moving in -- most of them to Clark County (Las Vegas). As a result of the ever-changing electorate, it's tough to predict what November will hold for the two parties. But, the growing Latino population in the state should make Nevada a major target for Democrats. And don't forget that the state held a very high-profile presidential caucus in January -- a process that led to massive amounts of money spent by both Clinton and Obama on voter identification efforts. That investment should pay off in the fall.

2. New Mexico (Bush, 50 percent): President Bush won the state by less than 6,000 votes in 2004, a margin that looks like a landslide when compared to Gore's 365-vote victory in the state four years earlier. Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is one of the most politically savvy governors in the country and will make sure the party's get-out-the-vote apparatus is in tip-top shape for both the presidential election and the open seat vacated by Sen. Pete Domenici (R). Democrats enjoyed a 50 percent to 33 percent registration edge over Republicans at the start of the year; that is a considerable head start heading into November.

1. Iowa (Bush, 50 percent): The millions spent by the Democratic presidential campaigns in advance of the state's Jan. 3 caucus should give a HUGE boost to their party's chances in the general election. And never forget -- because Iowa voters won't -- that McCain skipped the state entirely during the 2000 nomination fight and campaigned only sparingly there in 2007 and 2008. Iowans take their place in picking the nominee very seriously and many aren't likely to forgive McCain for his blasphemy.

By washingtonpost.com Editors |  March 13, 2008; 7:29 PM ET
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