Mostly sunny weekend with warming temperatures

* Capital Weather Gang 2009-10 Winter Outlook | Photo contest *
* Freeze Warning tonight along & east of I-95 (map) | Weather Wall *

Even with wall-to-wall sunshine today, it has been a rather chilly one. Gusty northwest breezes have brought with them wintry wind chills and an early taste of cold to come. Highs are mainly topping out in the lower 50s across the area -- about 10 degrees below average. Good news is the winds are about to subside, bad news (for greenery lovers) is that the growing season is about to end for many spots east of I-95 that have yet to see a freeze this year.

Webcam: Latest view of D.C. from the Netherlands Carillon at Arlington National Cemetery. Courtesy National Park Service. Refresh page to update. See this image bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: We're looking at a mostly clear and cold night with winds relaxing to light. Most spots should hit the freezing mark or below, with the city center being a possible exception. Lows should mainly range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s with D.C. maybe staying in the mid-30s.

Tomorrow (Saturday): After a frozen start to the day for many, things look quite nice to kick off the weekend. Mostly sunny skies will get a warming trend underway and highs should rise to the upper 50s and near 60. Light winds should be little or no issue. All in all a great Saturday, and if it is not warm enough yet for you, just wait till Sunday!

See Camden Walker's full forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

* Mighty fine weekend: Full Forecast | CWG's 2009-10 Winter Outlook *

Putting our high-tech predictive capabilities to work. CWG's Jamie Jones (left), Jason Samenow (middle) and Dan Stillman (right). Photo by Chris Leaman.

Washingtonian.com's Capital Comment Blog had some interesting questions for Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist Jason Samenow, lead meteorologist Dan Stillman, and technology lead Jamie Jones in an interview this week...

On a scale of 1 to 10, rate the difficulty of predicting Washington weather--1 being "easy as pie" and 10 being "you have a better chance of winning the lottery."

Jason: "I'd say a 5. Forecasting here is pretty straightforward about half of the time, but the other half of the time it alternates between challenging and bewildering. 'Bewildering' being the operative word when trying to pin down the rain/snow line in winter."

Dan: "I'd give it a 6. It's certainly no piece of cake, but I also don't think it's any more or less challenging than a lot of places across the country. Seems like everywhere you go--except maybe San Diego--the locals always think they have the craziest and most unpredictable weather of anywhere."

Jamie: "Seven. The metro area is so expansive--Gaithersburg to Fredericksburg, Annapolis to Winchester--that what is happening one place may be completely different than the other. Six inches of snow in Montgomery County might be a half inch of rain in Stafford, and trying to draw that line is tough."

Click on over to Washingtonian.com for the full interview...

Cold tonight; Freeze Warning along & east of I-95

* CWG's 2009-10 Winter Outlook | Hypothermia season underway *
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Bright sun. Breezy. Low 50s. | Tonight: Clear & chilly. Upper 20s to mid-30s. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Upper 50s to low 60s. | Sunday: Mostly sunny, oh-so-pleasant. Upper 60s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Payback time. After all those weekends and multi-day periods of cold rain, drizzle, clouds, and general blahness, we cash in and then some this weekend. Just brave today's breezy chill, and the weekend will prove very enjoyable with sunshine and pleasant temperatures, both of which look to stay through Monday.

Today (Friday): Gorgeous sunny skies. But dress for some wind chill, especially noticeable in the shade. Breezes from the northwest could gust to near 25 mph at times before slowing during the afternoon. Temperatures will climb rather slowly. But afternoon highs in the low 50s will feel fairly pleasant in the sun. No chance of any showers like those that popped up yesterday afternoon. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clear and...freezing? This could be the first freeze for areas along & east of I-95 where a Freeze Warning has been posted (see map). So plant those mums if you haven't already, and bring in the sensitive plants. Lows downtown should drop at least down to the mid-30s. With winds expected to go nearly calm, low 30s and some upper 20s are likely outside the Beltway. Confidence: High

A full weekend of sun? Keep reading for the forecast into early next week...

Mostly sunny Friday before cold Friday night

* Capital Weather Gang 2009-10 Winter Outlook | Photo contest *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall | Traffic *

Lots of sun visited the area again this morning and highs have reached up between 55 and 60 many spots. Though we've seen more in the way of clouds during the afternoon, just a stray shower or two is expected through early evening, and any cloudiness should subside as the sun sets. A sometimes gusty wind from the northwest adds an extra chill to the air through the night and into tomorrow.

Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: After evening clouds and isolated showers dwindle, a mostly clear and chilly night is upcoming. Just about everyone should get into the 30s, with lows ranging from the mid-30s for the suburbs to near 40 downtown.

Tomorrow (Friday): We end the work week with lots of sun and cool temperatures. Highs probably don't get much above the low 50s. Winds could be somewhat gusty -- up to 25 mph or so -- from the northwest during the midday, but should subside late. Lighter winds set the stage for what could be the coolest night of this young cold season.

See Josh Larson's full forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Ida: Yesterday we were looking at tropical depression #11 in the Southwest Caribbean. Well, it quickly became a tropical storm and then a hurricane before impacting Nicaragua this morning. The center of now Tropical Storm Ida remains close to the shore but fully over land. Current indications are that whatever is left of the circulation will drift north and back over water, possibly re-intensifying. The waters of the Western Caribbean are still very warm and the storm could become a hurricane again if it survives its trip through Central America. It is very difficult to get a strong storm to move into the U.S. this time of year, but it is possible and we will keep watch.

Odds favor cold, snowy winter

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After a string of lackluster winters, this one could deliver for cold/snow lovers. We are forecasting the coldest winter since 2003-04 and the snowiest winter since the epic winter of 2002-03 when 40-60 inches buried the region, unless El Niño (an event characterized by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific that can lead to shifts in weather worldwide) has some tricks up its sleeves.

Already, this El Niño event has reached moderate levels. The biggest threat to our forecast is the possible development of a strong El Niño. Often, when an El Niño gets too strong, we get flooded with warm air resulting in mild air and rain rather than snow. We're giving this a 30% chance. On the other hand, if the El Niño weakens rather than strengthens, it would likely result in similar (or even deeper) cold to what we're expecting, but it would probably give us a bit less snow. There is a 10% chance of this possibility.

Overall, we find chances for a large snowstorm of 8"-12"+ are much higher than normal this coming winter. No two winters are alike, but we expect this winter to share some similarities with the winters of 1957-58 (Reagan National Airport snow: 40.4"), 1965-66 (28.4"), 1986-87 (31.1"), 1994-95 (10.1"), 2002-03 (40.4"), and 2006-07 (9.5").

Keep reading for the detailed outlook and methodology. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

But some clouds today, maybe a shower

* Hypothermia season underway | Our winter outlook *
* Follow Hurricane Ida: Hurricane Tracking Center *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny, 20% chance of a shower. 55-60. | Tonight: Partly cloudy & chilly. 34-39. Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, but breezy & cooler. 50-55. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

With the possible exception of today's partly sunny skies (and the slightest chance of a lone shower), the forecast through early next week looks pleasant, with abundant sun and little to no chance for precipitation. Temperatures today through Saturday may be a bit on the cool side -- and a few degrees below normal -- but warmer readings are likely by Sunday into early next week. All the while, though, we hold onto mostly sunny skies.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): We'll see a blend of sun and clouds today (the latter more likely as the day wears on), with just the slightest chance of an isolated shower during the afternoon. Most of the area will stay entirely dry. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-to-upper 50s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Count on partly cloudy skies tonight, with breezy winds from the northwest at 10-15 mph and overnight lows dropping to the mid-to-upper 30s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the dry forecast through early next week...

Cool and partly sunny Thursday with some breezes

* Hypothermia season | Photo contest | Tomorrow: Our Winter Outlook *
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Plentiful morning sun gave way to increasing afternoon clouds ahead of a cold front approaching the area. Highs generally reached only the mid-50s, but light winds helped make it feel pleasant in the sun. Clouds continue to increase through evening and we could see a shower or two into the overnight as the front moves by and gets a storm going off the coast.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: We'll be mostly cloudy overnight and there is the chance of some passing showers. Any rain that falls should be light and scattered at best. Clouds help keep temperatures a bit warmer than last night, with lows from the mid-30s to the lower 40s.

Tomorrow (Thursday): We're looking at a partly sunny and breezy day on Thursday. A storm system winding up to our northeast will help deliver a slight chance of afternoon showers (I don't really expect much of anything) and increasing winds from the northwest that could gust to around 20 mph late in the day. Highs shoot for the mid-50s.

See Dan Stillman's full forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

TD 11: With a few weeks left in the hurricane season, there is some activity in a typical November hot spot. Tropical Depression 11 formed this morning in the Southwest Caribbean near the Central American coastline. The system is small, but well developed for a depression, and is likely to become a tropical storm soon. Steering currents in the area are light and forecasts brings it over land for a time. We'll keep an eye on it should it decide to drift north and threaten the United States -- much too soon to say whether or not that will happen.

Wx and the city

* Cool end to work week: Full Forecast | Tomorrow: Our winter outlook *

Yvonne McKethan waits for a place to sleep at the John L. Young Catholic Charities Center in the District. (By Melina Mara -- The Washington Post)

Already this week, daylight saving time has vanished, nights have become longer and colder, and hypothermia season has officially begun in the District. Residents in the D.C. metro area -- including the homeless population and their providers -- have begun to feel the effects of the approaching winter.

Earlier this week, I spoke with a young man who has been homeless for six months and has yet to experience a winter on the streets. "Summer wasn't too bad," he said with a shrug. "But winter, you know ... " His voice trailed off as he turned his eyes away with an anxious look that required no further explanation.

With talk of a cold and snowy winter buzzing around and budget cuts to the D.C. Department of Human Services already in effect, what impact will this winter have on the region's 12,035 homeless people?

A fair amount of sun, just a little rain in the forecast

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* Outside now? Clouds, webcam & more: Weather Wall | Traffic *
* Coming Tomorrow: CWG's 2009-2010 Winter Outlook *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny a.m. Increasing p.m. clouds. Mid-50s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of light showers. Mid-30s to low 40s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Breezy p.m. with chance of a stray shower. 50s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Sure does feel like winter is around the corner: The sun is setting before many people have left work; the World Series is coming to a close; the Wizards and Caps are in season; our winter outlook comes out tomorrow; and the National Christmas Tree lighting is only a month away. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s to near 40 today through Friday will only add to that pre-winter feel. However, a warming trend this weekend into early next week will remind us that fall isn't finished quite yet.

Today (Wednesday): Partly sunny morning skies help temperatures climb from morning lows in the 30s (suburbs) and near 40 (downtown). But increasing afternoon clouds ahead of an approaching cold front will probably limit afternoon highs to the mid-50s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: That front could trigger some light showers (50% chance). Otherwise we're mostly cloudy and a little warmer than last night. Lows in the mid-to-upper 30s in the suburbs to the low 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Sunshine Wednesday giving way to clouds late

* Fall storm showed links to El Niño | CWG's annual photo contest *
* Frost Advisory west of I-95 from 3 a.m. to 8 a.m. Wednesday (map) *
* Temps & more: Weather Wall | Thursday: Our Winter Outlook *

This is the kind of fall weather I love around here. Crisp morning lows have risen to highs in the low-and-mid 60s under mostly sunny skies. The only down side is a bit of a gusty breeze from the northwest, but since it's not too intense it is not too much of a problem. Mostly clear skies continue through the night, probably leading to some frost in the coldest locations.

Webcam: Latest view of D.C. from the Netherlands Carillon at Arlington National Cemetery. Courtesy National Park Service. Refresh page to update. See this image bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: We should stay mostly clear throughout the night as breezes from the northwest subside. Lows range from near freezing in the coldest locations to around 40 in the city. Frost will be a concern over western and northern parts of the area, especially if winds die off overnight.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): We start and end chillier tomorrow than today, but it will still be a pretty nice one. Plenty of sunshine the first half of the day will likely give way to more in the way of cloudiness late. Highs will be about 10 degrees cooler tomorrow, topping out in the low-to-mid 50s.

See Matt Rogers' full forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Dave Schwartz: Almost a year ago, we reported that The Weather Channel slashed some jobs, including that held by popular weathercaster Dave Schwartz. If the discussion back then was not evidence enough that the move was the wrong one, perhaps a new Web site will convince remaining skeptics. The folks at BringBackDaveSchwartz.com say Dave did some fill-in work from June to August at CBS Atlanta, but his current whereabouts are unknown.