Winter Starts Slow, Will it Finish Strong?
After yesterday's record-breaking warmth and a rather tame start to winter, one naturally wonders, is winter cold and snow going to be a no-show? Our updated, long-term winter outlook calls for January to cool down after a hot start, a warm February and the potential for a colder than average March. Including the 3-5" the metro area received in December, total winter snowfall is expected to be around 12 inches in the District and points south and east (compared to an average of 16 inches), with amounts generally in the 15-20 inch range north and west of town (in Fairfax and Montgomery counties). For complete details, keep reading...
We caution that while great advances have been made in seasonal forecasting, there is still a large deal of uncertainty in forecasting in the long range.
Outlook Update
When this outlook was originally developed in late November, we wrote: "This winter will be one of huge variability. While we definitely will see colder/stormier periods, the traditional heart of winter could be very warm." So far this forecast has verified pretty well, although the magnitude of the warm periods has been a bit greater than forecast.
We continue to believe March will likely be the coldest month with respect to normal with February the warmest, although our confidence for the February forecast is low. March is likely to see above average snowfall with below average snow still likely for January/February. Snow lovers may find solace in the fact that several of the analogs (years where similar weather patterns to this year were apparent) we used to develop this outlook featured 8"+ snowstorms for DC and we believe that the risk of a moderate/big snowstorm remains higher than usual (see yesterday's feature: "Where's All the Snow?"), though less than 50%. The bust potential for this forecast is also higher than usual as we will often be caught between competing weather regimes, with dry, warmer conditions in the Carolinas and what may be a cold and snowy winter for Southern New England and the Northeast.
Overall 2007-08 Winter Temperatures: Normal to +1 (degrees F)
- December: Normal to +1 (degree above normal) [Update: December ended up being +2.2 degree above normal, a bit warmer than predicted]
- January: Normal to +1 [Update: So far, January's temperature is averaging a whopping +6.6 degrees above normal. A cool down will be necessary for this forecast to verify. We think there's a decent chance of a cool down, but, for this forecast to verify, it might not be enough to overcome the initial warmth.]
- February: +1 to +2
- March: -1 to -2 (degrees below normal)
Snowfall: Below Normal, but near the median
- National Airport (DCA): 12" [Update: So far, National has received 2.6" of snow, on track with this prediction.]
- Dulles Airport (IAD): 18" [Update: So far, Dulles has received 2.5" of snow and is running a bit behind this prediction.]
- Baltimore-Washington Airport (BWI): 18" [Update: So far, BWI has received 4.8" of snow, on track with this prediction]
- Fairfax/Loudoun/Montgomery Counties: 15-20" [Update: These areas received about 3-6" of snow from the one storm in early December, and are basically on track this prediction.]
- DC/Arlington/Alexandria/Prince George's County: 12-16" [Update: These areas received about 2-4" of snow from the one storm in early December, and are basically on track this prediction.]
By Matt Ross |
January 9, 2008; 12:05 PM ET
Winter Storms
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Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 9, 2008 12:38 PM
Jim....I would say the former...volatility....
Posted by: Matt Ross, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 1:59 PM
Ugh, what happened to the good site? Washington Post is sooooo SLOW and bloated. It takes forever to load on my open home connection, and forget about it loading from a Government Office. The firewall rules and restriuctions Fed installations have in place to block the tremendous amount of advertising on any WaPo site means excruciating load times. The main CapWx page took about 4 minute to completely load. It isn't the size of the pipe, but the restriction on the last step.
Posted by: Alex | January 9, 2008 2:08 PM
Matt,
The CapWx forecast still looks quite good as we head into the mid-winter, I agree.
It's pretty easy to get "above average" temps along with "above average" snowfall, so no one should lose hope.
For instance, we are in very good shape already for an "above average" January, temperature wise. After this thaw, in which temps. were 25, 25, then 15 above the norm the last three days, stastically speaking it will take 15 days of 5 degrees below average just to even out to "average" for the past few days! We are 1/3 thru January with no impressive cold snaps in sight. BUT we don't need a cold snap for a big storm or two: just a strong, fresh Canadian high, an active jet, a bit of phasing, maybe throw in a little negative NAO, and the rest is a thing of beauty!
Great post.
Posted by: Curtis | January 9, 2008 2:15 PM
Matt,
I wouldn't give up on us not seeing any snow during January, as of yet. Since you already know my call from way back for the 20th-22nd.
I also would advise your readers to pay close attention to what might happen up above, in the polar stratosphere, in early February. The 3rd-6th to be exact.
Since it can be a good sign for us to see a colder, and stormier pattern, some 2-3 weeks down the road.
So if this intense stratosperhic warming occurs, like I have have gone on record about, it's Game On !
Posted by: Jim Hughes | January 9, 2008 3:26 PM
Thanks for the thoughts Jim. I was hoping to see some comments though yesterday in the Space Weather post. I need to know when to stand in front of the ATMS :)
Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 3:45 PM
Hoping for a decent snow around here is like hoping the Redskins have a winning season and make it to the playoffs (and don't get me wrong, I love the Redskins). You sit and wait and wait and wait for it to finally happen, you get teases and glimpses of what it could be, you suffer through last-minute letdowns, and then the season ends, leaving you to dream about what might have been.
The last really decent snowstorm we had (I mean over a foot - a REAL snow) was February 2003. Before that, we had close to a foot in January 2000, and before that, it was January 1996. We're overdue for a good dumping of snow here. Not that that will make it happen.
When I was in school, any snow was a good snow because Fairfax County panicked at the first sight of a flurry. As an adult, my view is that if it's gonna snow, it better be a freakin' blizzard so I don't have to go out in it. Otherwise, don't bother - I have enough trouble getting to work on time as it is!
Posted by: Jaradel | January 9, 2008 4:07 PM
Jamie,
I almost posted some comments about the new sunspot cycle. Or I should say the new cycle spots. Since new cycle spots have been seen about 12-24 months before solar minimum, during the past several solar cycles.
But this one might be an oddity, and I have spoken more about this recently. Since we may very well be at solar minimum already. Or maybe even past it.
So the space weather community might be scratching their heads pretty soon if this happens. But we will not know exactly when solar minimum is, until about six months later.
Solar minmum is a smoothed average, that considers the six month activity level, on both sides of a particular month.
So we will not even know the official December sunspot count, until early next summer.
Posted by: Jim Hughes | January 9, 2008 4:19 PM
I was wondering, with this lackluster winter with snow, and the warm February, are you suggesting that we may have a very snowy end to February and most of March in the mid Atlantic states. In Strong la Nina patterns, March seems to be the snowiest month. It certainly was in 1999. That was the last time we had a snowy March. Will that happen again in 2008. Also, what do you foresee for the summer, cooler and wetter, or another scorcher with drought. I hope not the latter. Three summers in a row of hot weather has been quite enough. My garden has been a mess with the last 3 drought periods in the summer.
Posted by: robert hartge | February 4, 2008 2:27 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
Nice forecast all - and I largely agree. One question I have, is will February be warm because of a few brief but intense "torch" periods, or because of less intense but sustained warmth. The former is certainly better for snow chances, and would seem to be in line with the winter thus far.