TJ: re your comment in the previous post about it being way too warm for even a sloppy inch, you're probably right since the storm now looks to to undergo intensification too far to the north. Last night (when I prepared the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball), it appeared the storm might intensify further south with rain changing to snow as the storm tapped colder air. Not as likely now, but it's too early to rule it out.

This is just another in a long string of potential threats that has turned into another "40N snowstorm." Every coastal storm event this year has ended up being a total non-starter, regardless of how great it looked on the models further out. Areas just to the north get whacked, while areas south of the Mason-Dixon and east of the Allegheny Front get little or nothing (or rain).

I'm not sure I really expect this to change this winter. This is all par for the course with strong La Ninas. Most do feature a 2 week cold period though - and we may be entering that soon. So here's hoping we get some events from mid-Jan through early Feb!

hmmm...

I've been monitoring Rob Guarino's blog from Philly (since i live here, and only go to University in DC) along with the chat room he posts in

Rumblings over there are saying a 12+ inch snowstorm is POSSIBLE for PHILLY

Now, i know DC is obviously south of Philly lol but surely the cut off wouldnt be that drastic

Surely if Philly got 12 inches, DC would have a chance at ~6 inches, correct?

Any updates?

BTW, ACCUWEATHER has been horrible with updates. What is Henry M. playing at....

John, if Philly gets a foot (unlikely, but not impossible), the storm would probably have developed far enough south to give us something, but maybe not much. The cutoff with the precip in these types of storms can be pretty dramatic.

Don't rule out this upcomming system. We have had suprises before with past coastal storms expected to be nonproducers. Good news is we are certainly entering a colder trend over the next several weeks.GFS keeps bringing storms up atlantic coast..I have a gut feeling we will get ar least one decent snow before Feb from one of these systems.

Hope everyone is enjoying the last "springlike" day..I certainly am, getting ready to go play 9 holes down here at Meadows Farms course in Locust Grove VA (West of Fredericksburg,VA), they have the only Par 6 in the nation, whopping 848 yards to the green..

I think we really need to start focusing on these storms 24-36hrs away this year. There seems to be ALOT of model flip-flopping back and forth lately. I'm no expert so I don't know what's causing it. Maybe somebody could help me understand it. It's weather. We can't control it and there's really only so much predicting one can do days in advance. I don't care how many technological advances have been made, the weather can do what it wants.

These so called monster storms next week...who knows? I was hearing about this rush of artic air that was suppose to be settling in, yet I look at the NWS forecast and I'm seeing 40's?? Which one is it? If you listen to every winter weather forecast around here, it could probably actually drive you crazy. We seem to go through this every year and every year it gets worse. The longer we go w/o a decent snow, the bigger the hype gets. This is not a shot a capwx for hyping, they never do.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, since there is so much incosistency with these weather models, how about not informing the public until you actually get a better handle of what's going on. The general public can't read models, I've recently just barely learned to know what I'm looking at. I can't tell you how many times I'm out and I hear random people say stuff like, "I heard we're suppose to get like a foot of snow."

A few years ago, my golfing budding lost control of the cart and we went into the lake at Meadows Farm. No joke.

I HATE that par 6 . . .

Until we can get sustainable cold air in here, and a 1030+ High to build in across SE Canada, 50/50 low, if we don't get any of the listed above, forget about snow down here, no matter how great the track may be-no cold air source=no snow, no matter what any model says.

Oh, by the way, I don't see anything on the GFS, GGEM, UKMET, ECMWF, JMA, NOGAPS, CMC, or any other model for that matter that depicts any long-term cold air sticking around in the Mid-Atlantic. Maybe a couple transient shots, but that cursed SE ridge is going to keep nosing its ugly face at us all winter long. As a matter of fact, I will go on record and state that it wouldn't surprise me if there was no big snow this winter (4+ from any given storm).

NYC now has a winter storm watch for 6-12inches

Rob Gaurino has stated Philly could see some big snow too, im anticipating his blog this evening, cos i know big snow in philly *should* mean moderate snow in DC

When will Henry M at ACCUWEATHER, TWC, and CapitalWeather get there act together and take the possibility of this storm more seriously?

Prediction: DC will see no accumulation of snow. Mostly rain.

The trend this winter is getting even worse. We just can't get any cold air at all. With temps in the low to mid 40's tomorrow even the mention of snow seems ridiculous.

John Doe -- We'll sound the alarm bells if and when we see evidence to do so. Right now it's just tough to see how temps will be cold enough to produce much if any accumulating snow in the DC metro area

I am moving to Green Bay! Look at this snow!

My little sister lives in Green Bay. They get tired of winter by late January. She's as much of a snow lover as I am.

As far as we're concerned, I think someone needs to give "Old Man Winter" a litte blue pill.

The Green Bay game today could go down as one of the most classic games in football weather history. What a storm! Farve is my hero! As for our weather --- I give up!

FFX

Yeah, Par 6 is not the best hole there.Farmer Meadows did just build a really nice clubhouse overlooking 18 green. Ever played the waterfall hole?

In times like these i always remember The Presidents Day Blizzard of 2003

I was still a young'un then of 15 years old

But i remember vividly no one was expecting much the night before the storm. And as the storm was actually occurring, the Mets kept updating their totals....Philly ended up with over 20 inches that day

So always keep the faith. Mother nature can throw surprises our way. It doesnt happen often, but when it does its oh so sweet

Never say die.

Hello again, all my friends!

The hype from the NAM is over(for now)regarding the system for Sun./Mon., but the GFS has shifted slightly west. As I have been repeating for the past two days, don't get excited, the parameters are not there for this system.

For those who are resigned to the Non Winter of 07-08, remember what I said around the New Year. "There will be many surprises before April 1". A major pattern change begins next week that will result in cold and unsettled weather. We may receive our first widespread Winter Storm before the end of next week.

Hello again, all my friends!

The hype from the NAM is over(for now)regarding the system for Sun./Mon., but the GFS has shifted slightly west. As I have been repeating for the past two days, don't get excited, the parameters are not there for this system.

For those who are resigned to the Non Winter of 07-08, remember what I said around the New Year. "There will be many surprises before April 1". A major pattern change begins next week that will result in cold and unsettled weather. We may receive our first widespread Winter Storm before the end of next week.

NAM deepens and shifts slightly west at 00z, but don't get excited.

John Doe: Not sure where you live but the President's Day Storm in 2003 was pretty well nailed by meteorologists around the D.C. area days in advance. D.C. has had several big surprise snowstorms like March 5, 1999 and January 25, 2000 but February 2003 was well forecasted.

I live in Philly, and i can tell you that it was underforcasted at that location

Feeling confident that my prediction of Jan being 4-6 above norm will pan out, & this winter will end up 2-4 above. Still expecting,80% probability, snowfall of >10". Not enough cold air in place 4 this storm 2 b a snowstorm of any significance. This warm winter has once again screwed the striper fishing at the 301 Bridge. Average temps start going up beginning Jan 24. Looking like another non winter.

Looks to be a pretty dissapointing winter. Whats all this talk about next week and the end of January any sign of something to look forward too. Just looking for some hope

Not seeing anything in the models to denote a drastic pattern change. Cooler, yes, but not an extended or bitter cold outbreak. Looks that SE nose will keeps temp at or slightly above normal for much of the next 10 days.