Well that sucks.

Here at Whistler, we've had over a foot of snow in the last 3-4 days. It doesn't hurt to be on a mountain range and facing the Pacific.

Yup Looks like all rain here in dover deleware too I wonder if winter will ever come back to the mid atlantic

Ned: Thanks for reporting in. I'm jealous :)

Anyone got any input on the 17th and 20th prediction of another coastal storm??

so sad...*sigh*

DC Metro winters are turning into Richmond,VA winters.

Anonymous:

Your observation is astute. Richmond's 30 year average snowfall is 13", and recent DC winters are much closer to that than the alleged DC average of 16-20".

Meanwhile, Richmond winters have turned into Raleigh, NC winters. The 10 year average snowfall in Richmond is well off the 30 year mark, and is actually in the single digits. Roanoke, VA 30 year average is 22", but I believe the 10 year average is around 12". And cities like Raleigh, which used to be "one snow a year" type places, now regularly seem to have 0 snowfall years.

The point is, the whole thing seems to be shifting north. Philly is the new DC, DC is the new Richmond, Richmond is the new Raliegh, and Raleigh is new Columbia, SC. The question, of course, is what this can be attributed to. Climate change comes to mind - namely, it could be that the slight temperature increases have finally mounted up enough that we have passed a "tipping point" with a resulting change in snow patterns for the Mid-Atlantic (these same increases would not effect places farther north because their temperatures are cold enough to have more room to rise and still get snow). But with such a small number of years being considered, attributing it to climate change is, of course, a rather unscientific conclusion. Other possibilities include a long term shift in snow patterns that will eventually shift back, or simple "bad luck."

The latter would be the best for us, because if its climate change, or a long term snow pattern shift, none of us are likely to see it go back to snowy in our lifetimes.

I personally think a little of all of the above is going on, but predominantly bad luck. I think with climate change, and the current pattern, we will see yearly snowfall averages decrease, but not all that much. The recent string of terrible winters is therefore mostly attributable to the bad luck part in my mind.

Just curious - why does it usually seem (7-8/10 times) snow totals decrease as we approach the storm, with actual totals less than originally predicted? I realize the weather in the area is notoriously difficult to predict, due to the mountains to the west, the bay to the east, etc. The bottom line is that it doesn't appear that we can rely on the weather models 3+ days out and should apply some sort of historical percentage of likeliness to the equation. I am not questioning the team's dedication to getting correct answer, it just doesn't seem like the current methodology 3+ days out seems to be working all that well. Thanks!

I don't really understand that myself it never seems any meteorologist really know what a winter storm is going to do I understand how hard it can be with maryland being so different from county to county but it seems the forecast changes every hour with these storms, as if we should just sit around and wait for whats going to happen to happen then we will really know whats going on with the weather

The only glimmer of unrealistic hope is in the latest 00z GFS run for 372 hour....Ha Ha...oh how I wish that run were tomorrow's storm.

Any news on next weeks upcoming storm/ storms possible?

What a depressing winter so far. We have seen zero snow here in Spotsylvania VA. I saw a few flurries once, but it only lasted a couple minutes..I actually had to focus really hard to see it. I am beginning to belive Jim's post, our weather is more like Richmond's weather...

When it's above freezing, Here come the "rain" storms following the jetstream...When its cold, coastals stay well offshore.. leaving us dry and cold...I"m certainly jelous New England is gonna get slammed over the next several weeks by coastal bombs thanks to the active jetstream...of course warm air is always pulled into our area......UGH...

Only Mother Nature knows the exact forecast. I wish the models could be more reliable 5 or more days out..I know its dificult to predict and I'm not blaming anyone. Its been such a letdown when I see a glimmer of hope and then it dissipates the next model run...I think I may need a bottle of prozac and a plane ticket to Alaska....:) jk....

On the flip side, everyone will be very excited when we do get our first big snow...I do look forward to everyones enthusiasm when the time does arrive...

Now maine is being included in the winter storm watch so New England is really partying tomorrow! GRR

My father always used to say "the weather around here doesn't break until after January 15th." - and that was 50 years ago. Snow lovers, don't dispair- our best snows often come in february.