A Slight Shot at Snow Late This Week
Unclear if enough cold air will be in place.
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Thursday
Probability: 30%
Potential Impact: 
Commentary: If you are unhappy with the fact that yesterday's snow passed the Washington, DC area by while dumping quite a bit over New England, don't get too down (yet). Computer modeling suggests that we have a chance (note: chance is a lot different from certainty) at snowfall for our region by Thursday. Most of the guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will develop by Wednesday over the Gulf Coast and push into the southeastern US by early Thursday. It is then expected that this storm system will lift north along the eastern seaboard by mid-day Thursday.
Unfortunately, since this storm won't even develop until mid-week, pinning down the track of this system is still a few days off. And since we don't have a good handle on the expected track of the storm yet, it is too clear to know with any semblance of confidence what precipitation type we might be able to expect from this system. As is typical with DC winter storms, if the track is too far west (as some of the models are indicating), then we're likely to see a rain event; if the storm is further to the east, i.e., just off the coast (as some models suggest), we have a shot at snow. And, finally, if the track of the system is too far east, we may be left high and dry. This third scenario seems least likely at this point.
For snow lovers, the limiting factor for this storm will be cold air. It's likely to be eroding just as this storm approaches. So in the DC area and points east, rain stands a good chance of being a big player unless the storm track is perfect.
Hopefully in the next day or two we'll have a better of idea of how this potential storm may evolve and just what impacts (if any) it may have on the Washington, DC area.
By Josh Larson |
January 14, 2008; 10:30 AM ET
Winter Storms
Previous: Forecast: Finally that Winter Feeling |
Next: Twelve Years Ago, After the Storm
Posted by: Jenn in Reston | January 14, 2008 10:41 AM
i miss snow!!
Posted by: madison | January 14, 2008 10:59 AM
its getting desperate...I think its time to break into the snow dance. In my kitchen, I have a picture of bears doing this...best performed after a glass of Rioja.
Posted by: missy in manassas | January 14, 2008 11:04 AM
Is it just me or have the number of comments on this blog really dropped off?
I suspect the reason is that there is no way to subscribe to blog comments like there was on the former site. That made it easy to follow the running commentary.
Either that, or the commenting folks may have migrated to the Accuweather forums, just a thought.
Posted by: RW | January 14, 2008 11:06 AM
It is also because the readership of the blog will remain static because the Post has chosen not to provide a findable link to the site. The previous readers will continue to read the site but its not going to attract new readers unless the "Capital Gang" does something dramatic to increase readership.
Posted by: Jay | January 14, 2008 11:19 AM
Snow = W00T
Posted by: Alex | January 14, 2008 11:30 AM
I dunno; I'm new to the site since the migration. I'm using the RSS feed to stay updated, and at present, there is a nice large banner at the very top of the WaPo website (underneath the banner) advertising and linking to the blog.
Posted by: JB | January 14, 2008 11:33 AM
Oh, RW, how could you! I am sure none of us have migrated to Accuweather!
Posted by: Etta | January 14, 2008 11:46 AM
In terms of snow, at least we weren't promised a wallop we didn't get...think NYC. Yet, none of the weather people took responsibility and said., "we missed this one." Instead they moved field reporters up the coast and said look at the snow....in Boston....
Posted by: Sara in Oakton | January 14, 2008 11:51 AM
Here are some easy URLs to remember the site, which automatically take you here:
www.capitalweathergang.com
www.capitolweathergang.com
www.capitalweather.com
Any of the above will work. Thanks all for visiting
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 14, 2008 11:52 AM
All, a few notes. While each post may not seem that big, the blog itself had over 84 comments yesterday, far more than we would have on a similar sunday on the old site, so I think it is more having the comments broken up between posts. However, that can be an improvement as well, when those wishing to discuss Andrew's latest post don't have to weed through the comments discussing Tuesday's forecast, and vice versa. Just some getting used to
And about placement and advertising, the blog currently is at the top on the Metro page, the Weather page, and the front page itself. If you are familiar with how the post normally displays it's blogs, this is typical. However, expect us to continue to get promotion (including on the front page) as called for around the site.
Posted by: Jamie Jones, CapitalWeather Gang | January 14, 2008 11:58 AM
Good Afternoon - Just walked to lunch around 15th and H downtown and it started spitting snow. Is winter back!?
Posted by: Todd | January 14, 2008 12:26 PM
So in other words, Thursday's storm is most likely a rain storm with a chance of snow; at least for now.
Posted by: Snowlover | January 14, 2008 12:41 PM
Thursday storm is looking pretty iffy for the coastal areas and I95 unfortunately. For those of us along and west of the blue ridge though, things look a bit better. If things stay as they are I'd say folks from Leesburg west may have a little reason for some tempered excitement.
Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 14, 2008 1:30 PM
Say the storm travels perfectly, (there is cold air for it to be snow and not to far to the east so there is alot of preip.) how much snow will we get? In other words what are the greatest possible snow accumulations?
Posted by: sam | January 14, 2008 3:06 PM
LoCo needs some snow!
Posted by: Model Monkey | January 14, 2008 4:22 PM
Really need a storm that forms in the gulf & then travels up 95 & off the NC-Va coast. Those type of storms have a better chance of being snow producers. Storms that form on the coast have to many varibles to b reliable snow producers. Coastal storms either track 2 close,30%, & produce mostly rain or ice; track 2 far East, 30%, little or no prec.; intensify to far North, little or no prec.; & 20% follow prefect track. So, basically theirs about a 1 in 5 chance of the prefect storm
form Coastal storms.
Posted by: VaTechBob. | January 14, 2008 4:55 PM
While I enjoy and appreciate the new format that includes multiple threads and topics, I'm still finding it a little difficult to track subjects being posted on different threads. I find having to check a few at a time. Maybe it would help if CWG explained how they envisioned this would work. For example, people were posting about the potential storm both on Andrew's and Jason's threads yesterday. Should we just always click on "Latest Forecast" if we seek to comment on the forecast itself?
Posted by: jeffc | January 14, 2008 5:45 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
I'll believe it when I see the white stuff on the ground. :) We can't go forever without snow -- can we ?