Hmm, so you guys really had nothing better to do than to start a Washington weather blog? I hope that post.com is paying you enough to do such a silly thing. I hate to be mean, but really, what is there to say about this weather? When it's good, it's good, when it's bad, it's really not that bad. The weather is actually one of the few things that I don't see as an everyday inconvenience, unlike the traffic and class separation.

Not sure I understand what you're talking about anonymous poster above. You're not making sense.

But if you're talking about starting a blog on Class Separation, and Traffic, I suggest you that you champion it, and you might get some readers.

Actually, anon., this blog was started as capitalweather.com, independent of the Post. Because it was so successful, the Post wanted it to be part of their ensemble.

Do you even live in D.C.? If so, I have to wonder how you have failed to notice how insane people are when a winter storm is forecast. I think that should answer your question.

Just curious - why does it usually seem (7-8/10 times) snow totals decrease as we approach the storm, with actual totals less than originally predicted? I realize the weather in the area is notoriously difficult to predict, due to the mountains to the west, the bay to the east, etc. The bottom line is that it doesn't appear that we can rely on the weather models 3+ days out and should apply some sort of historical percentage of likeliness to the equation. I am not questioning the team's dedication to getting correct answer, it just doesn't seem like the current methodology 3+ days out seems to be working all that well. Thanks!

Another massive slap in the face. New York gets 6 inches and we get rain. WHY DOES THIS ALWAYS HAPPEN TO US? I'm getting really sick of it.

Re: snow chances going down the closer you get to the storm: I'm not sure this is really the case. What tends to happen is people hear "snow" and they latch onto it -- regardless of the odds given. Forecasters often go back and forth with respect to actual likelihood because DC is almost always near the rain/snow line. But after that first mention of snow, it's tough to get it off peoples' minds.

(quote)the Post wanted it to be part of their ensemble.)
do you realize the post is on its last leg. they will try any thing to stay afloat. wash/post radio is a joke. the paper is losing readers more and more every day. i can only see the worse in all this. i think capitalweather.com has made a great mistake in this choice. as you can see i am not to fond of the wash post and have boycotted them for many years. subscribe is ther favorite word and would not be surprised if thats not in the near future for all of us here.

Just my 2cents. Not sure I like how the comments are split between each forecast. I really liked how before their was only 2 threads a day. Made keeping track of everything easier. Any way to go back to that format?

Also, do you guys still have links to the models?

Dan: We plan to bring back categorized links (including models) over the next few weeks. Breaking up the posts allows for more updates and enables you to comment on posts based on their actual content. Thanks for your feedback

Currently 39 degrees in the central Shenandoah, breeze beginning to kick up from the east and northeast, high broken overcast with low clouds moving in from the east.

12z GFS coming in colder for the late week system, indicating more frozen potential, especially for western areas. The 12 Z looks very cold and stormy after that and perhaps a couple of events where precip. type will not be an issue, even for D.C.!!

Not worth much at this point but very interesting to look at!

CWG - do you have any thoughts yet on this upcoming week's weather forecast. Maybe it's been posted but can't find anything. Thanks.

I have to admit I'm not as fond of the move to this forum, but I'm pretty sure there are business incentives that just couldn't be passed up. I just say give it some time and hopefully they can incorporate a lot of the things that made the last site so easy and fun to visit. If not, I doubt as many people will still be in here to post and banter like last time, but I'd still check on the forecast here over any other outlet.

I'm in favor of less post too. When there is snow in forecast it doesn't matter what the topic is, people just want to talk about snow.

Guys, I look at each model run as they load if I can...I hope for any glimmer of hope.It gets frustrating as things just keep going the other way. It's like golf, we can have have a good long game one round (precip), then we can have a good short game another round (temps. Most of the time its difficult to put two and two together.(long,short)..At least for me...:) But, if it does happen, we will be in for an exciting round...:) ]

Dont forget that we still have rest of Jan,Feb, and even March to hope for the big one. Temps appear to be trending a good deal colder as we enter the rest of Jan and hopefully into Feb as well...So mother nature should soon have her "short game" down for a little while at least...She just needs to find one good long game......sorry to you folks who dont play....but I'm sure you get my point.

We need her to shoot even par...

Just curious about the folks who seem to want to come here and bash: Why are you evern here if you are so miserable?

This place has been up and running for years, and has a loyal following of folks who do care about how the weather is going to be over the next few days. And these guys are pretty honest about what is coming, and don't hedge like the TV guys do. Hardly a "waste of time" in my mind. I appreciate all the hard work the CWG has done for FREE for years, and even though the new digs are still taking a bit of getting used to, I am glad they were able to get a little something in exchange for what they have been doing. It isn't about the host, but about the content. So long as the guys keep doing what they always have, I don't care where the site is.

just my two pennies worth. ;-)

Well said Kim.......well said!

Next Weekend is our One Big Shot at something memorable for this winter, I think....

Curtis can you elaborate about next weekend please?

mega is not better. the charm of this site was or still is but to early to tell kinda like family owned and operated. kinda small town feel in a big metro area like wash dc. with real down to earth people that has become a thing of the past. miserable? i dont think so. disgusted very much so. remember klines drive inn on rt 28 after 28 yrs it sold out for a bank. i got the same sad feeling when i saw the wash post come up on thes site the other day. let it snow let it snow let it snow

This fine, very fine blog swallowed by the uber-left, utterably unreadable Post.

I was disbelief when I first saw it. I thought my Firefox had gone mad.

Sad.

I suppose anything looks uber-left from the ultra-right, GAD? Let's not exaggerate.

Ultra right? Does not exist in the U.S.

Ok all, time to bring this back on track. I can tell you, the CWG went to the post not for their politics, or any other reason other than our goals.

We remain dedicated to creating the #1 site for Weather and discussion within the Washington DC Metro area. The post positioned us to make that a reality quicker. The decision on wasn't based on Money, wasn't based on politics, but for how they (the Post) could help us accomplish OUR goals.

I realize that many of you have opinions about the new site (I admit, there are some drastic changes), the Post itself, or anything in between. Like I said on Tuesday in one of the comments, all I ask is that you continue to read the site, and you will see that it is still business as usual around these parts.

With that said, if you have any questions about the site, please feel free to Contact Us. And on that note, let's get the conversation back on track. We will have a posts over the next few weeks allowing you to voice your thoughts, suggestions, and complaints. This thread is not for that, and will be moderated as such. If you want to talk Snow (or lack there of.... GRRRR), see the forecast post below. If you want to talk Andrew's article, you are at the right place. Otherwise, give us a few days to catch our breathe and we will have a thread for you (or feel free just to email).

The precip is coming through but a narrow band. I guess this is it? 41 here in Olney area so not a frozen type! Watching on wunderground NEXRAD and planning the BBQ accordingly. Keep up the good work!

Back on the weather...

Very light snow is now falling here in Blacksburg. Temps are colder than anticipated. Currently 36, most outlets had us at 39 or 40 at this time of day. Those same outlets had what precip we were going to get as rain. Clearly, what we get is going to be all snow - but the QPF will still likely not amount to much.

Latest models suggest we could be in for 18-24 inches with this next storm.

tj..,
the models have shown another storm later on this week, but like the other storms this year, it's too early to tell...

Maybe I can help out the 10:37am anon poster who things that the accumulation totals get smaller when the storm approaches (if that is what he/she was trying to ask). It is probably because the weather watcher who pays no attention to the forecast until a winter storm approaches gets most of their information from a co-worker, who heard a forecast from their Aunt Betty who heard it in line at the grocery store, or from a worthless FM station whose forecast is read by a know-nothing who either leaves out the most important part or can't read in the first place.

Jamie Jones:

THANK YOU for telling the readers and bloggers to talk weather and stop airing their complaints on this site. I have found the past week to be one of the most informative it Capital Weather History and I am proud of you guys.

I am so excited for the day when you guys are able to forecast through a major winter event ---- this WILL happen in the next two weeks. I think most of the complaining from folks is because of L.O.S. ---Lack of Snow!

Greg

Reminder, stay on topic of the weather or the site, or risk being moderated.

Latest models suggest we could be in for 18-24 inches with this next storm.

Posted by: TJ | January 13, 2008 06:26 PM

Is that model on crack ? :)

im starting to lose my optimism for snow..:(
doubt we'll even get any later this week.......
i bet there will be a high enough chance to give us all hope and then come the actual day that we're supposed to get some of the white stuff, we'll find out it will all just be RAIN
winter will never come
im so sad

I made that up by the way...

Does anyone have any serious opinions about next weeks snow I know its far out still but just wanted to know what it looks like so far

If u don't like the site, the solution is simple, don't click on it. Models are fairly useless more than 3 days out, & even at 3 days they can only give a rough scenerio what will happen. Not sure how long term the colder pattern will last, I don't think it will be more than 8-10 days. Feb still looking above average.

To comment on Andrew's article today: Speaking for myself, I did/do not find the drought boring. I've been through serious water rationing once before, in another area of the country, so the drought last summer brought back some scary memories. The heat wave held my attention last summer too, especially those Code Red days that make it so tough for an asthmatic like me to breathe. Both events limited my time on the river last year. No, it ain't snow - droughts & heat waves don't provide quite the same shock to the DC metro area, but I suspect that droughts and heat waves are likely to be more damaging and more costly overall to us here than are blizzards.

~sg, thanks for your comment. You're correct that heat waves and drought are damaging and even life-threatening. The aspect that makes them more boring to me from the point of view of a year-in-review piece is that they happen in slower motion than say a snowstorm or tornado outbreak, and signify a stagnation in the weather pattern as opposed to something more dynamic.

I'd have to say I'd rather be in our position of knowing this storm was going to be pretty much a rain event than those in NJ/NY. They were looking at snow totals in the 4-8" and as of now that is looking pretty unlikely. With the heaviest precip moving through NJ now and about to hit New York City, and being all rain this looks to be a big bust for those areas. Just goes to show how these storms can be so hard to predict, especially ones that are as uncertain as this one...as for the cold outbreak/snow possibilities later this week...it's obviously hard to say what this storm will do, so for that we will just have to wait and see. I personally think it will be a warmer storm with a short artic air outbreak(short as in 5-7 days.) Just have to wait and see, this winter really is a bummer....

Andrew: I think that the slower, almost insidious nature of the drought and the heat wave contributes to human and economic damage, because people take these events less seriously - until it's too late. Blizzards, tornadoes and storms (oh my! ;-) cause rapid changes that snap people awake. Slower events, like climate change, creep up on us, and don't make their toll known until after we've been paying it for some time. Oddly, it's the slow-motion strangulation of these events that demands my attention.

If La Nina usually makes mild and dry winters, and El Nino usually results in warm conditions, what does it take to get a colder and snowier than average winter?

Model Monkey: Neutral conditions (in between La Nina and El Nino) and weak El Ninos are somewhat correlated with snowier winters.

00z GFS coming in colder and higher qpf especially west of the Blue Ridge. This has the potential to be quite a winter storm for that area. East of the Blue Ridge is marginal because of temp. profiles both surface and aloft.

Anyone have an opinion on why we have nothing but bad winters anymore? Will we ever go back to the good snowy winters??

Anyone have an opinion on why we have nothing but bad winters anymore? Will we ever go back to the good snowy winters??

Jonathan - I'm guessing it could be global warming, or coincidence, but my money is on gw.
Andrew - Nice column as always. And gosh, you guys are just as cute as I imagined.

Per WaPo, Antarctic ice going fast, apparently ocean currents responsible:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/13/AR2008011302753.html?nav=rss_email/components

On, in, small letter, rather large difference in the images suggested...

Last time I checked, the ultra-right has had control of this country for 18 of the last 26 years. Some of you are living in a dream world. Even the democrats have to be 'middle of the road' on almost every issue, or they're called out for being "soft" or "unpatriotic." (the fact that they choose to crumble under such pressure is another story altogether.)

There is no such thing as the "liberal media." Most arms of the media are controlled by a very select few companies, all of whom profit from the war game...

...which is supported and propagated by the right wing.

Wow. Wake up, people. There is very little difference between the Washington Post and the Times. They both print the same lies, handed down by the White House, and rarely challenged.

Learn to accept reality and learn and grow with it. Right wingers love to pretend that things aren't as they are, until the truth comes and bites them in their rear. Just ask Mark Foley. . .

Anyone interested in an honest look at where this country is, and where it's come from, should pick up Howard Zinn's "People's History of America."

Thanks for reading.

Once again. Timing will be a big factor with this next storm. In order to get a big snowstorm here. We have to have everything set up perfect. Cold Air, Coastal Storm formation in Carolinas, Not too far east or west. We also need cold air aloft so we dont get sleet or ice. This is a combination I wouldn't bet on in Vegas. However, when the pefect conditions do come together. We usually get LOTS of the white stuff...

Really well said, Ken.

I know Tom Skilling. I watched Tom Skilling. Andrew Freedman, you're no Tom Skilling.