CommuteCast: Winter 2.0, The Sequel
Clear commute; wintry mix likely tomorrow
Precisely one year ago today, CapitalWeather.com's PM Update (archive not available) noted that the pattern had shifted exactly halfway through meteorological winter from a mild regime to a more wintry one, and a similar shift is happening this year. With yesterday's return to within one degree of the daily average temperature, the stage is set for a wintry mix of precipitation as a developing low pressure area emerges from the Gulf of Mexico and moves northeastward up the Atlantic coast.
The key to the forecast is the fact that there is cold air in place and a good moisture supply, but the mechanism to hold the cold is not there, and as the wind moves to a southeasterly direction, much of the precipitation is likely to change to rain.
Tonight: After this afternoon's temperatures mainly in the low 40s, some high clouds will be accompanied by upper 30s to near 40 this evening. Clouds will increase overnight as lows reach 30-32 in the city and the mid to upper 20s in the 'burbosphere.
Tomorrow: Unless you sleep as late as we do here at CommuteCast Central, your morning commute should be cold, but dry. Precipitation in the form of snow or sleet will develop from southwest to northeast across the region from late morning into early afternoon. Temperatures in the low 30s will drop a couple of degrees to freezing or below when precipitation begins, but will gradually warm a little toward evening, and precipitation in the immediate metro area will change to freezing rain or plain rain. An inch or two of snow is possible before the change, especially north and west of the Beltway. As usual in this type of situation, the changeover will be most rapid east of I-95.
See Dan's post for the rest of the forecast, including a look ahead to the weekend.
By Steve Scolnik |
January 16, 2008; 4:30 PM ET
Forecasts
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Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 16, 2008 5:12 PM
Please can someone explain why, as the day wanes, it will become warmer? This goes against all of my senses.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 16, 2008 5:19 PM
anon @ 5:19,
If the air never moved, the temperature would always warm up (with some lag time) as the sun got higher in the sky, and the reverse would be true as it went down. If the wind is from (or changes to) a direction in which there's warmer air, however, that can change.
Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 5:27 PM
Atlanta has been reporting light snow with a little sleet since about 4:00; temperature is 33°.
Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 5:36 PM
(Thought I would try this comment here as well - you guys are great for answering our questions in the comments):
I'm heading out of BWI tomorrow (Thursday) at 4 PM to Miami to catch a flight to Trinidad. What do you think my chances are of my flight leaving from BWI on time? Is the storm going to be directly over BWI at that time?
Thanks!
Posted by: David | January 16, 2008 5:44 PM
*30 degrees OUT here, waiting....Ryan called me in the 2-4 range.....TEAM, any map or does the transition btwn types prohibit it?
*Steve...surprised you don't use that old military photo instead! ;) ...and thanks for the NEXT comment in the last box, I hadn't picked up on that!
Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 16, 2008 5:48 PM
I have to agree with the "old timers" who used to read Capitalweather. When you guys are updating the blog every three hours and starting a whole new string of comments it is very annoying. I would suggest a way to string all of the comments. By the way I asked three threads ago if the old way to post photos was gone forever or are you thinking about putting it back"
Posted by: JT | January 16, 2008 5:52 PM
David,
Delays are hard to predict, since they depend at least in part on the situation at other airports where the flights may originate, but conditions should be decent at BWI by 4:00.
Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 6:01 PM
Here is a link to a national map that I always like to look at before a storm. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php
I just thought I would share.
Enjoy!
Posted by: Steve Stew | January 16, 2008 6:57 PM
Steve - that's right, I forgot about the originating airport. Well, here's to hoping I make it out of DC for the weekend!
Thanks for your help.
Posted by: David | January 16, 2008 7:00 PM
29 degrees here in central Loudoun. Here's hoping to a subfreezing high tomorrow! Is there going to be an accumulation map posted sometime this evening?
Posted by: Model Monkey | January 16, 2008 7:41 PM
JT--I think our blog is much more dynamic with several updates a day. Plus breaking up comments is not a bad thing, particularly the more users we get.
ModelMonkey--It's possible an accumulation map will be posted this evening, but for sure by 5am tomorrow morning.
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 7:55 PM
I was just wondering where I could find the links for the models. I know its been said before, but I can't find a post referring to it, thanks a lot. Jesse
Posted by: thejesse2442 | January 16, 2008 8:05 PM
hmm.......im liking the updates but im not too hot on the separate comments. i miss the days of having 70 comments for snow! its tedious to backtrack to previous posts to read others' comments. i think they should be strung together..
nywys....how many inches are expected in fairfax county??
Posted by: strangldangel | January 16, 2008 8:11 PM
hmm.......im liking the updates but im not too hot on the separate comments. i miss the days of having 70 comments for snow! its tedious to backtrack to previous posts to read others' comments. i think they should be strung together..
nywys....how many inches are expected in fairfax county??
Posted by: strangldangel | January 16, 2008 8:13 PM
wow,.. its already 29 at DULLES..the low temp was supposed to be 30.. looks like there is more colder air then 1st thought.
Posted by: Snowman in Herndon | January 16, 2008 8:28 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
18z GFS also coming in colder. If this run verifies my area of the Valley could receive 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow! The D.C. area could receive 1-3 inches.