Any chance the DC area could see a couple of inches out of today's storm? Say if the the cold front arrives later and a bit slower than expected?

Snowlover, if you want some hope, look to the morning Area Forecast Discussion out of NYC (though most things still appear on track for a miss):

Current pressure falls are suggesting a track
slightly closer to the coast...and deepening a little faster then
forecast by the models both yesterday and overnight. If the low
deepens faster than expected (especially if there is strong
convection associated with its deepening)...the development will
end up sharpening the downstream ridge...and as a result the low
would track closer to the coast than currently forecast. For
now...GFS/NAM/sref consensus seems generally on track.

Thanks Ian - One can always hope!

The 06 NAM and GFS have shifted slightly northwest with qp for today, but not enough to help most of us, other than a few periods of light snow or flurries. Accumulating snow should be confined to an area from Salisbury to Richmond and points south and east, where generally 1-4 inches is expected with WWA's and WSW's in effect.

Next chance of snow for most of us according to the latest GFS may be a snow to rain event a week from today since the midweek system is suppressed to our south.

Longrange 'Dreamcasting" would be hyped by the first few days of Feb., when the GFS plasters us with over a foot of snow!!.

7:30: 32 degrees, calm, 15dbz filtered virga over my area.

After a slight shift North - you can certainly see the cut-off in Southern Virginia. I will be shocked to see a flake. This is certainly a moisture rich event. All we need is for one of these to ride up the coast and be blocked (stall) off the coast to give us a classic.

I'm looking at current radar in southeast. It looks as if some areas of eastern most South Carolina are starting to fill in with precip..The trend before had onset sliding east. This could mean virtually nothing but I am going to keep my eye on the radar. As Ian posted, pressures are dropping which may suggest the low "could" hug the coast. All in all, our weather patterns over the next 2-3 weeks look better then avergage for us seeing some snow. Temperatures will certainly be colder for that duration.

Can anyone comment on radar trend? Thanks

Check out this radar imagery...You may have to zoom out and alter transparency images...

Kinda cool.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/home/map/interactive/22407?from=36hr_maps&zoom=8&interactiveMapLayer=radar.

StormChaser, I think most things continue on track for the area getting missed. There is probably still an outside chance that we could get brushed with some light snow for a time as the low moves off to the east and northeast. That timeframe would be late afternoon or during the evening.

If you check NEXRAD loops out of Roanoke and Norfolk you will see that the bulk of the precipitation is currently moving in a way (mostly ENE) that would keep us dry.

Strong Convection and a slow moving arctic front are bringing storm farther North and West....

Could be wrong, but looks like it to me...

Throw away the models...

I think the thing to watch is the Arctic front this evening and its interaction with moisture hanging around the area due to proximity to the low pressure system.

The 12Z NAM is now picking up on this interaction giving the region a little more precipitation. The RUC (short term model) is also now showing some snow breaking out along and ahead of the front as it passes through the area during the evening and early night.

12z Nam, now coming in, has added a spike of snow between 5-9 pm riding up the Blue Ridge. The 06z did not expect this. Nothing heavy, but could make the late afternoon and evening hours more interesting.

Watch the radar trends over southwest Va., eastern Tenn. and western N.C. If unexpected filling occurs, this will be possible good news for snowlovers in our area.

3 hr. pressure changes indicate a possible northward jog.

The 12z RUC is even more pronounced than the NAM with the late afternon and eve. spike of precip. into southwest and western Va.

Thanks for reply Ian. I'll keep an eye on things. I hate asking dumb questions but I dont know what you mean by artic front. Do you mean the cold front pushing south? How does that creat interaction with this storm? Will front interaction it intensify it? or push it away?

At 8:54 CST i just got a call from Southern Weather Watcher Bryan(my brother) in Montgomery, Alabama who reports a changeover from rain to a rain/snow mix. Expecting 3-6 inches in the foothills outside Montgomery.

The latest water vapor loop at 9:58 shows the surge of moisture moving northeast from northern Alabama into Tenn. that could be wrung out by the Arctic Front over the tristate area this evening.

Completely ignorant on the charts thing, help me know how to read the snow breaking out on the RUC charts. Which one do you draw that information from? So far I've learning that the NAM has been less reliable this year and on some charts the 850mb shows the rain/snow line. Which images are most helpful to a novice on the RUC (or NAM)? Or is this an unreasonable question that would require me to take the 101 course?

This entire system is pretty impressive on the scope of its size in SE.

Update from the South:

10:00 CST: Montgomery, Alabama experiencing all snow - heavy wet large variety flakes similiar to what we had here the other day. All businesses are closing although the snow is only sticking to metal surfaces.

what about thursday's storm????

Storm Chaser: The Arctic front is the cold front coming in from the northwest. It will both push the coastal storm away and may help to squeeze out some its lingerig moisture (per Augusta Jim's and Ian's comments). Does not look like a big deal to me but is one of those situations where we'll just have to nowcast by watching radar and short term models. We'll post an alert if we see anything interesting later on

The new GFS has trended towards more precipitation as well now.

For a little perspective on snowfall amounts. From NOAA

National Airport and Downtown DC
* Based on 100 years of official data (1897-1997)
Snowfall Amount Return Frequency
24 or more inches 1 in 100 years
18 or more inches 1 in 50 years
16 or more inches 1 in 20 years
14 or more inches 1 in 12 years
12 or more inches 1 in 7 years
10 or more inches 1 in 3 years
8 or more inches 1 in 2 year
4 or more inches 2 per year
1 or more inches 5 per year

The Greater Washington Metropolitan Area
(Northern Montgomery, Western Fairfax, Western Prince William and Loudoun)
* Based on 150% of the official snowfall amount recorded over 100 years.
Snowfall Amount Return Frequency
24 or more inches 1 in 25 years
18 or more inches 1 in 7 years
14 or more inches 1 in 3 years
10 or more inches 1 in 2 years
8 or more inches 1 per year
4 or more inches 3 times per year
1 or more inches 6 times per year

At 11am, the enhanced water vapor imagery loop clearly indicates a plume of moisture surging northeast across eastern Tenn. into southwest Va. Radar returns in this area are also filling in.

The chance of a period of snow or snow shower activity seems to be increasing for late afternoon or evening.

Augusta Jim-Where is a good place to look for water vapor imagery? I haven't looked at it for a while, and the site I was using changed its link structure all around.

Missy-- Can't really provide a useful model tutorial in the comment area. It just gets too involved and would require several pages of text. But it's a great idea for a future feature. In the meantime, you can review this link.

Here's another useful background page on models: models for forecast. Also recommend scrolling through the topics on this page for more helpful background on different model features.

Precip moving into south/central VA, and appears to be filling in nicely...I'd have to agree with Augusta Jim that seeing a period of snow tonight is looking pretty good...

Jason-thanks for the links. They are really helpful. It would be great if you had a "beginner's feature" sometime! Keep up the great site!

Brian:
I am paying a subscription price for real time enhanced data, but you can get reasonably satisfactory water vapor imagery from Accu-Weather.
http://www.accuweather.com/maps-satellite.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&site=UN&type=wv&anim=1&large=1

Notice the color scale at the bottom, green is moisture laden air, it's that simple.

I'm checking out all the latest on my new Iphone.. Very cool..just like mini laptop.... COME ON SNOW!!!!!!. ....round 2 maybe....more or less if it pans out?

Reality check from a DC Expat:

I had to giggle when I saw "Cold and Colder", and then "frigid tomorrow".

I'm sitting here in Northwestern Wisconsin. Sure the sky is sunny and blue...but it's *checks her thermometer* warmed up to -4° right now! This is a vast improvement from the -15° we had at about 7:30 this morning. We're hoping to hit 0° at some point today...

DC's weather sounds downright balmy to me right now...*shiver* (But then again, our summers are more mild - we just traded extremes...)

what's the potential for the storm on Thursday?????

been looking at different areas all moring and many people seem to think that this coastal storm could move more north rather than go out to sea. looking at the radars I can see what they mean. not being a professional, does it have a chance to do this?

i cant help but notice that the low is taking a northerly turn. im prob. just having radar hallucinations but anyone does anyone else see this?

marylandwx: yes, i know what you mean about radar hallucinations, but I'm seeing some stuff too; leading edge of precip seems to be as far NW as Charles Co and possibly filling in from SW, but the whole damn thing is still moving quickly E as well. I need to take a break and come back in a couple hours. Cloud deck in the District is getting lower & thicker, could be interesting.

3 hr. pressure changes are bombing from the South Carolina coastal waters across eastern North Carolina.

This storm is definately tracking north.It is obvious on the radar. Will there be an update soon? Are the temps still going to be trending colder soon, becuase now it looks like rain.Is the arctic front going to change over the precip to snow if & when it does start falling??

If you look at radar and satellite imagery you can see that the block of moisture in the south is moving east...I'd love to see this thing move up the coast, but really it just doesn't look like thats going to happen..

According to this radar the precip is already near the DC area. Is this system going to head more due north versus straight out to sea?

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-state.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipcode=22901&level=state&type=SIR&anim=0&site=VA_

Looks like the direction of front has made a left turn up the coast to me:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Summary.aspx?location=USNC0121&enlarge=true

Will we get a 2d low form off the coast?

arnoldkh,

I see a lot of moisture heading in our direction. Look at this radar image frow TWC.http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/home/map/interactive/22407?from=36hr_maps&zoom=8&interactiveMapLayer=radar Zoom out a bit and reduce the transparancy...you can view it in motion, it shows a lot of light/moderate precip moving towards us. I don't know why some radars dont show much while others show a bit more.

Also, Agusta Jim, You mentioned pressure was dropping off NC/SC coast. Is this good for us? (sorry, another dumb question). Would that intensify the storm over our area...

Sorry, that looked complicated to access, here is link again.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/home/map/interactive/22407?from=36hr_maps&zoom=8&interactiveMapLayer=radar

Granny's Drinking Beer,

What is a 2d Low? Thanks

Conman: secondary low, I think. Or maybe just a second low coming our way.

The only glimmer I am getting out of the radar is the batch of snow currently over Bristol and Blacksburg. If it goes on it's current track, we might get brushed. But that is a big IF.

I'm just waiting to see what happens, with a little hope we might get more snow.

Temps r still 2 warm 4 snow, might get a rain - snow change over later this evening. Prec. does seem 2 b taking a little more of a N track. Temps will need to fall 4 any accum. snow.

Looks like it is going to start snowing in DC by around 4pm.....

Bring on the monster....

I might have to go buy another 12 pack.

Granny.

I hope we do get a monster. Temps are falling slowly. I guess the cap team is closely analyzing all these changes occuring. It appears the storm making a more northen move now. There is no snow in NOVA yet. nor rain, I guess air is moistening up. Bring it on & I will be doing moonshine shots with Granny

VaTechBob,

What is your take on the storm. I remember in the past you made good calls on storm. Any chances of this thing really cranking up or just a quick mover, from what you are seeing now. I believe you live near me as well in Stafford.

I think we are starting to see some enhancement along the front as it bumps into moisture drawn up by the low pressure. The main storm body still looks to remain well south, we should see some snow though.

According to the 18z RUC, the D.C. area will receive some light snow between 6pm and midnight. The current radar echos 40 miles south of the city are mostly heading across the Bay toward Cambridge and Salisbury.

To add on to what IAN said, LWX is saying the precip from the system to our south will stay south, perhaps grazing So.MD...but the forcing from the cold front could squeeze out precip east of the Blue Ridge as they say: "SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND FORCING."

Richmond just went to light snow in the last 20 minutes and had been under radar echoes for some time prior. None of what is currently to the south appears as if it will make it to the DC area. We still have some dry air at the surface to overcome, but that will allow temperatures to drop if we can get precipitation in later this evening.

New post up as of 3:04pm