Forecast: Weather Pattern Remains Active
But no big storm on the horizon
It was around this time last week that Mother Nature flipped the switch on what had been a rather quiet winter. Since then, it seems like we've had a chance of wintry precipitation almost every other day. Yet, the "big one" has remained elusive. That trend will continue with another chance of wintry weather tomorrow -- but probably no big storm -- followed by a modest but welcome warmup arriving in time for the weekend.
TODAY
Sunny, low 40s. High pressure works its way in behind yesterday's cold front to give us a mostly sunny day with light winds (5-10 mph) and high temperatures in the low 40s -- right on the average for this time of year. Tonight, increasing clouds with lows in the mid 20s downtown, near 20 in the burbs.
TOMORROW
Precipitation chances uncertain, mid to upper 30s. At the very least, there is the potential for some flurries or snow showers as the next cold front passes through. One model shows a coastal system producing more widespread wintry precipitation for the middle and latter part of the day. As of now I'd put the odds of that happening at 30%. I think the more likely scenario (70% chance) is that the coastal storm will track too far offshore to have a major impact on the metro area. Skies should be at least partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Breezes will likely pick up from the northwest toward evening. Then, becoming mostly clear and windy overnight with lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits.
Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend. And check back later this morning for Capital Weather Gang's rankings of local TV weathercasters Bob Ryan, Sue Palka, Doug Hill and Topper Shutt.
FRIDAY
Sunny, mid 30s. Winds should die down by midday as the next area of high pressure moves in. Still, despite abundant sunshine, it will be quite chilly with highs probably only reaching the mid 30s at best. Overnight, increasing clouds with lows in the low to mid 20s in town, upper teens to near 20 in the burbs.
A LOOK AHEAD
Things are looking up -- in terms of temperature, that is -- for the weekend. Saturday should be partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower and highs in the low to mid 40s. Lows dip to the mid 20s to low 30s (suburbs to city) Saturday night as skies clear. Then partly to mostly sunny on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.
A cold front could bring a chance of rain by Monday, and a developing area of low pressure approaching from the Midwest could threaten another chance or rain on Tuesday. Highs both days in the 40s to near 50.
Still don't see any major winter storms in the immediate future.
By Dan Stillman |
January 23, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
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Posted by: El Bombo | January 23, 2008 10:25 AM
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Dan:
A "welcome" warmup arriving for the weekend?
For many of us posting here, warmups during the winter are decidedly unwelcome.
Posted by: jmbethesda | January 23, 2008 1:47 PM
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jmbethesda -- I knew someone would call me out on that one :) ... but if it's not gonna snow we might as well not be freezing to death, no?
Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | January 23, 2008 2:43 PM
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I know this is way off in the future, in weather terms, but I also know that part of meteorology is to take a look at long-range trends. Does anyone at Capwx have anything to say about the period of the last week of February through the first week of March?
I'm planning on making a trip back to DC, and was wondering if you guys have a guess at what type of pattern the Mid Atlantic could be under during that time. Thanks!
(I asked this in another post, but my timing was off, and there were no more comments made after mine.)
Posted by: Anonymous | January 24, 2008 3:06 PM
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Thanks for very interesting article. btw. I really enjoyed reading all of your posts. It's interesting to read ideas, and observations from someone else's point of view... makes you think more.
So please keep up the great work. Greetings.
Posted by: Natural Male Enhancement | March 11, 2008 10:40 AM
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In contrast to the "doomsday" advocates' scenario of a ruined winter, we are back to "normal" conditions, temperature-wise this winter. The only area in which we are deficient is frozen precipitation. The reason: whenever it gets cold, the moisture tap shuts off. Whenever the moisture comes back in, we get that scourge of mid-Atlantic winters, warm-air advection!
My hunch is that the La Nina is shutting off the "fifty-fifty low" and "Greenland block" scenarios necessary for a good snow-producer in Washington. These setups seem to work most efficiently when ENSO conditions are "La Nada" neutral. I believe it has been several years since we've had a genuine "neutral" winter around here.
One further note: The "shutdown" situations we enjoy in a big snowfall situation are of necessity rare here in town. If we had the snowfall typical of a northern climate (e.g. Duluth, MN) it would probably take a huge snowstorm to provoke a general shutdown. Folks up in Duluth and the Twin Cities routinely COMMUTE and SEND THEIR KIDS TO SCHOOL in winter-storm conditions which would easily provoke a school shutdown in our "Southern" clime. They also know how to drive in the snow. Up there on the "frozen tundra" you need DOUBLE-DIGIT snowfall before they consider whether to close schools and businesses. I believe that the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire has closed down for snow a grand total of ONE TIME in the past thirty years! Even in Madison they need an eight to ten inch snow before they think most remotely about early dismissal of afternoon classes. Generally at this time of year there are iceboats on the surface of frozen Lake Mendota just outside the UW Student Union.