How will the drought effect us?

I'll believe this when we get past President's Day, that's been a nasty weekend for weather in the past.

I wrote off this winter in September as a big loss when I first saw the La Niña forecasted as moderate to strong. This blows.

The criterion of La Nina mentioned the post ("...one to two degrees Celsius below average.") is incorrect.

"La Nina: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a negative sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months."

Source:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2394.htm

well, to add insult to injury, not only has Baghdad seen snow but now the Middle East is getting snow, including up to 8 inches in Jerusalem!

There have been 5 previous moderate to strong La Nina's ( -1.0 C. or more) since 1950 during Feb./Mar./Apr. (Current 3.4 departure -1.5 +)

Snowfall at DC for Feb./Mar. during these times.

1950 - Feb. - 0.0......Mar. - 3.4"
1971 - Feb. - .3"......Mar. - 1.40"
1974 - Feb. - 4.2"......Mar. - 0.0
1989 - Feb. - 1.2"......Mar. - .4"
2000 - Feb. - 0.0.......Mar. - 0.0

Not very encouraging but there is at least 6 weeks of hope left.

The CFS is indicating weakening toward a possible neutral state toward late summer and fall 2008.

The CFS is indicating weakening toward a possible neutral state toward late summer and fall 2008.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 30, 2008 01:54 PM

Does me no good THIS winter, now does it? ;)

Usually I don't get excited over March snows. The sun's incident angle is too high and the snow which does fall (often overnight) melts in the strong sunlight. Snowdrops, crocuses, and often daffodils start appearing and occasionally the cherry blossoms begin.

There have been a few exceptions. The 1993 Superstorm turned into the kind of windy rainstorm I abhor, but did end as snow. They didn't shut down the government (my measure of a "Big Daddy" snow!) however.

TQ....you are correct. I was trying not to get too technical...I should have worded better.

hobbes:
You and I may be pleasantly surprised during Feb. or March. Though I love snow, currently I am praying for copious amounts of moisture during the next two months, whether it be in the form of rain or snow.

BOOOOO! hisssss! bring back 95-96 from augusta jim's chart (found on the other thread...).

I hate la Nina! But what about the happy discussions from yesterday on the NAO reversing? Doesn't that count for anything? You guys are made of disappointment!

Hey, Uncle Jim...looking for an update on Thursday night's alleged ice storm...are we going to work Friday?

walter:
95-96 was a weak La Nina averaging -.76 C. during Dec.-March.

One huge difference during 95-96 that significantly influenced the weather pattern was the NAO condition. During fall and winter 95-96 the NAO went strongly negative.

During most of this winter we have been in a neutral to positive state.

7-degree temperature drop in the last 90 minutes. It's getting chilly out there.

By the way: unbelievable winds this morning, no? They woke me up in the middle of the night.

AJ Niece:
The NWS is issuing a WINTER STORM WATCH for the Shenandoah Valley for Thursday night into Friday.

Latest indications are that sleet and freezing rain will begin shortly after midnight Thursday and continue as mostly freezing rain into the daylight hours Friday before slowly changing to plain rain.

Highways (especially shaded areas, bridges and overpasses could be tricky).

Ice accretion could be significant on trees and power lines.

Extended forecasts show some 60s next week, followed by mid-to-upper 40s, then a cold snap of a few days (upper 30s during the day, 20s at night), then warm again. And no snow in sight. Maybe you snowlovers should consider moving to Buffalo or the Great Plains...

uh, augusta jim, pardon my ignorance... what's NAO? whatever it is, i think i like it when it is "strongly negative."

Oh, I know, I know!!

North Atlantic Oscillation...right, Uncle Jim? Now you explain what it IS.

The North Atlantic Oscillation put simply would be, the atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic that control the strength and direction of the prevailing westerlies. A negative NAO is, an interuption of the oscillation because of a blocking pattern created by strong high pressure over or near Greenland.

A negative NAO encourages cold arctic air to flow southward over North America and often results in storminess along the east coast of the U.S.( possible snowstorms)

The last post was not made by
walter, but intended for walter by myself.

Is there any way to have a FAQ on here? Seems like it could be a big help. Maybe you could have a Beginner's guide, or links to a good site where the weather models/maps are explained. I was browsing on Margusity's (Weather blogger for Accuweather) site and saw a "Big Daddy" map for February 10th, but it just looked like pressure lines and some other lines to me.

thanks, augusta jim. i was surprised myself to see that i had answered that question.... when i woke up this morning i didn't realize what a big fan of a negative NAO i am.

can you say whether, given a negative NAO, la nina or el nino is better for snow at my house?

Unfortunetly this winter is turning like I thought, mild & snowless. Dec 1 I had Dec 1-2 degrees above, it ended up 2.3, & Jan 4-6, looks like it will end up about 5+. Still expect Feb to b 3-5 degrees above with an 80% chance of less than 4" of snow. Still holding out a slim hope 4 one good snow but looking doubtful. My early summer outlook is 4 above average temps & below prec. Really could b a blast furnance summer.

vatechbob, do you have a negative NAO for NEXT winter....?

Walter:

The best winters for our area are the "neutral" ones. That is, a WEAK La Nina, a WEAK El Nino, or a "normal" equatorial pacific (I believe El Bombo has coined the term "La Nada").

Mod/Strong Ninas lead to this winter - warm and dry.

Mod/Strong Ninos lead to warm and wet.

As far as the NAO, negative is always best. But keep in mind the La Nina effects the NAO as well - it makes it more likely to be positive. Everything in weather is related.

2 early to tell about NAO 4 next winter but my early thoughts r that it might b a more seasonal winter.

This is so sickening to me. :-( The "4 to 8 inches" of snow quoted in the post for the metro area is NOT what DC itself got at all.

Will we really see no real snow this winter?

DC Teacher... It's just way too early to say we won't have snow this year!

I remember lots of people writing off winter in 2007 -- about this time last year, I believe. Then we had the Valentine's Day storm. Didn't we have another one in March, too?

What is the status of the Storm on Feb 10? I know it is far out, but it is it still holding strong? Thx!

I was personally planning on a storm on the ninth until VTBob dashed all my good snow hope. But Jim, if the NAO is supposed to be getting more negative at the end of February, wouldn't that mean that the La Nina isn't as strong (since it didn't suppress it?)

Snowlover, I thought that someone said that the Feb 10 thing had disappeared from the models. I think when you are talking ten days out, you might as well just pick a date at random and say, "it's going to snow on xx day..." the models are so worthless this far out. (Shoot... even three days out it seems like they don't really know).