Looking only at the radar, this front would seem to more impressive than the forecast would indicate. Will it lose most of it's moisture between Ohio and here ?

I hope not - hope we get enough to freshen up the frozen snow !

dang.so no early dismissal??? :( anything???

how much ice??anything that could affect schools?

There will definitely not be any early dismissals. Looks like it will still be a long while before anything starts unfortunately.

If you want to keep an eye on Fairfax County, the recieved alot of crap for not closing early last storm... I wouldn't be surprised if they pull the trigger more easily this time.... and they HAVE to make a decision by 10:30, according to their website.
- Tim

Tim, that certainly would be a sight, wouldn't it? Not closing for 3" of snow/slush/ice on the roads but closing for barely a dusting. Talk about irony, HA!

Oh well, hopefully the winter will still spit more snow out at us. There's still time.

Anyone know where LWX's last couple of AFDs are?

Brian,
I noticed the AFD wasn't on the LWX site, I always use the old IWIN site as a back up, it is updated their: http://www.weather.gov/view/states.php?state=VA&map=on

Thanks. I thought they did away with IWIN. I'll have to bookmark that.

what happened to the 5 day forecast?

MDScot: fronts coming out of the west generally lose most of their moisture going over the Appalachians. Any significant precipitation events for this area occur when the precip comes out of the south.

Off weather topic for a sec, anyone hear the series of "ka-booms" this morning coming from the Arlington area a few minutes ago? It sounded like about 10 or 15 in rapid succession. Thinking it may have been Arlington cememetary.

weatherdudeVA:

I'll echo your "there is still time" comment. While meteorological winter is half over, snow does not fall evenly over meteorological winter - it is back loaded. Far more snow falls in the second half of winter than the first half. In this area, February, not January, is actually the snowiest month. So, believe it or not, both DCA and IAD are sitting pretty near normal (within an inch or two) snowfall wise for the winter so far.

Now, of course, people are worried because a lot of forecasters are calling for a torch February. But whether or not that comes to fruition is a difficult call at this point. And even if it does, the warmth may domninate, but giving the volatile weather pattern, there may well be some short but intense cold shots through the month.

I really think we will have at least one good storm chance in February. In March, the NAO may go negative strongly, and I think we'll have a good chance of another system in early March before the sun angle and climo get to be strong enough factors to end winter.

I still think snowfall will be below average, but I think there are plenty of snow chances left this winter - especially if you can enjoy smaller events like last Thursday's.

I appreciate your encouraging words as far as the snow prospects. Last week's storm was just not enough. To quote a famous rock star, "too much is never enough". I am hopeful for a February storm...the nineteenth would be a nice birthday present, my precious.

To answer questions about schools: I think chances are pretty low this event will affect schools.

You know, I just thought of something. Won't the precipitation at the beginning of this "storm" have trouble reaching the ground? It has been awfully dry over the last few days (the static shocks I'm constantly getting will attest to that fact).

weatherdudeVA: yes

Looking South here in Rockville,
sky looks ominous.

As I suggested at 5:55 pm yesterday, unless precip. broke out over Georgia and the Carolina's and moved north, our chances with this system would not be good. The limited precip. over North Carolina and southern Va. is shearing out to the east and northeast and mostly staying south of our area. The radar returns look good west of the mts., but most of this moisture will be wrung out over the higher mts. as it moves east. The latest RUC and NAM support this with most of us receiving very little if any measurable precip. Snow falling over western and central W.Va. has reduced visibilities to .5 mile. Snow is now falling 35 miles to my west.

Thursday could be quite interesting with indication of possible coastal development to our south that may throw some accumulating snow at us, especially for eastern areas.

Boy this is a bummer. Nothing but "light, no accum. expected" junk! And cruddy little "advisories"!!! Wish we could get a full-scale BLIZZARD WARNING for a change!!!

Reminds me: Last week someone (possibly "Southside Ffx"???)officially "gave up on winter" and started "hoping for spring". Whoever did this is way too early. The sun's incident angle is still too low for real spring conditions. I generally wait until after the Presidents' Day weekend. By the end of February the solar angle is getting high enough to start exhibiting some real melting power. However I've seen a few good snows here as late as mid to late March so winter is NOT over by any means. There's a reason why meteorological winter lasts until March 1.

One more aside: I'm REALLY UPSET that the Giants beat the Packers Sunday. Perhaps the Pack would have been BETTER OFF going down to Dallas the way things turned out. Anyway the Packers should have won going away since Eli Manning wasn't supposed to be a cold weather QB and should not have been able to handle the weather at Lambeau in mid-January. Now I have nothing to look forward to in the Super Bowl except possibly the likely Patriots' victory. At least the Packers were spared the near inevitable Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, and the Giants DID play the Pats tough in their final game of the season.

MDScot -- Indeed, models indicate the moisture will break up some as it approaches, and we're already seeing that on radar. Meanwhile, pavement temperatures are on their way up, which will help to limit (but not necessarily completely eliminate) travel problems.

I had given up on the possibility of winter. Instead, last Thursday's mush mess caused me to give up on my question to embrace winter and understand the perspective of snow lovers. I concluded that they are crazy, and resolved to go back to hating winter and praying for summer.

That was "quest," not "question."

As I said last week, given that most winter storms in this area turn into a mess like last Thursday, I concluded that I couldn't understand anyone's excitement over winter weather.

Temperature here is already at 32F and looking at mdot weather stations around the area a lot of places were in the 30-33F range...so I would think most of what falls(if anything much really does) may switch over a little quicker than thought..

WWAs cancelled. Hardly surprising.

Sorry, should have clarified that WWAs for DC and Arlington were cancelled. Advisories for the exurbs remain.

I am flying out of National on Thursday and if it looks like there will be major delays because of weather I will fly tomorrow. Does anyone think that the weather on Thursday will be bad enough to delay and cancel flights??? thanks!

Just ran across this on the ol interweb, thought you guys might enjoy it. A Wintry Mix t-shirt...

http://tshirtinsurgency.com/

"Tim, that certainly would be a sight, wouldn't it? Not closing for 3" of snow/slush/ice on the roads but closing for barely a dusting. Talk about irony, HA!"

Actually this happens pretty frequently, thanks to backlash from parents usually. When I was in highschool in Mont. County I remember one "snowday" where we got out of school early and it was a beautiful, sunny day outside and on the warm side too. I think it was snowing a bit upcounty though (and they do get higher snowfall amounts on much less frequently plowed roads). So the schools were scared I think.

This was a few weeks after a snowfall where they did not close early and the roads were a complete mess. (School buses getting stuck, easily 3-4 inches on the ground when we left school. Forecast was that the snow was going to start later...but if any idiot looked out the window they could see how hard the snow was falling). Sucks having to walk ~2 miles home in that.

:(
so thursdays gonna be no big deal either? how likely is it that it may develop into a significant storm?
this winter sucks...