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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 01/ 9/2008

Forecast: Temperatures to Fall, But Not Too Far

By Dan Stillman

Somewhere, winter waits in the wings

Some January thaws end with a "back-to-reality" blast of bitterly cold air. But not this one. A cold front coming through today will bring an end to this week's record warmth, but not before temperatures threaten to exceed 60 degrees for the third day in a row. And as cold fronts go, this one will be kind of wimpy. Highs should be near or above 50 through the weekend, which is still safely above our average high for this time of year (the low 40s).

TODAY

Quite breezy, maybe a few morning showers. Then clearing skies, low 60s. The cold front may spawn a few showers this morning as it passes by. But the cooler air behind the front will be slow to work its way in. In fact, morning clouds associated with the front should give way to increasing sunshine by late morning as afternoon highs approach and probably reach the low 60s. At least for today, the most noticeable impact of the front will probably be winds at 15-20 mph. Tonight, high pressure moves in to give us mostly clear skies and quickly diminishing winds. Lows in the upper 30s to near 40 downtown, low 30s in the burbs.

IMG_0291_postsize.jpg
Thomas Circle basks in record-breaking warmth yesterday afternoon. By Capital Weather Gang photographer Ian Livingston.

TOMORROW

Increasing clouds, chance of p.m. showers, upper 40s to near 50. High pressure drifts to our east, allowing the next cold front to approach from the west. The result is likely to be increasing clouds with a chance of a few showers in the afternoon and highs in the upper 40s to near 50. The evening and especially overnight hours bring the potential for more numerous and steady showers. Overcast skies will keep overnight low temperatures mostly uniform across the area, in the low 40s.

FRIDAY

Morning clouds and showers, then clearing and mid to upper 50s. Showers, along with cloudy conditions, may very well continue until the cold front clears the area, probably by late morning or early afternoon. But once again, it's a cold front without a lot of punch. Increasing sun should help afternoon highs hit the mid to upper 50s. And even with mostly clear skies, overnight lows are only headed for the mid 30s to near 40.

A LOOK AHEAD

The weekend is shaping up quite nicely for the middle of January, with partly sunny skies and highs near 50. Saturday night is looking a bit cooler than it has been, but still not too cold, as lows dip to near 30.

We're still watching a potential coastal system for the late Sunday and Monday time period. The current trend is for any precipitation -- wet or wintry -- to stay offshore, though there is still time for that to change. Temperatures do slip somewhat come early next week, with highs in the 40s on Monday and Tuesday.

By Dan Stillman  | January 9, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Winter Starts Slow, Will it Finish Strong?

Comments

That is a bummer about the potential Sunday Storm. This may be the winter of warmth, near misses and "a more westerly track" giving us warm, rainy events. I know we still have 80 percent of winter but this just bites!

Greg

Posted by: Greg | January 9, 2008 5:58 AM | Report abuse

Ok, I'm going to do it... NO jacket today! Shorts and a t-shirt...THAT'S IT!

Posted by: Bikerjohn | January 9, 2008 6:03 AM | Report abuse

Like some earlier commenters, this site is NOT displaying well in Firefox. The text is showing up way at the bottom of the screen.

Posted by: Josh | January 9, 2008 6:36 AM | Report abuse

Migration to the Post a real shame.

Another sell-out.

Posted by: GAD | January 9, 2008 7:43 AM | Report abuse

Yes, to echo poster upthread, you guys sold out. Not that I wouldn't have done the very same thing had I been in your shoes, but mark my word, pretty soon you'll be hyping storms for non-meteorological reasons.

Posted by: Michael | January 9, 2008 8:21 AM | Report abuse

Ok, really, the "sell-out" and "I hate this" posts are starting to get a little old. So far, this move has resulted in two things - a new web location, and a slightly different format. The content, as far as I can tell, is basically the same, if divided up in more posts. From what I see, the Post is really just giving these guys support and web space. I know some people assume any alliance with a corporation is automatically evil, but really.. unless and until something actually changes.. there is not much point to these posts.

As for the weather:

Yet more bad news re: the storm this weekend. I really think the second half of January may be our only window this winter. Most forecasters are predicting a very warm February, given the La Nina. Things might cool down in March, but March snow this far south is pretty unlikely. Instead, we get the worst of both worlds - a warm and snowless winter, followed by a March that is filled with cold rain and a late spring.

I hate to point it out, but other than the clipper, we've had zip this year. Not even any near misses! So, here's hoping something happens in late January!

Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 9, 2008 8:38 AM | Report abuse

To Josh and others having problems in firefox, the post tells us that it is caused by the extensions you use. We had some users yesterday confirm that that "AdBlock" extension was in fact causing the poor display problems. If you have these different page altering extensions, try disabling them and see what they do.

If you continue to have problems, feel free to drop us an email at the "Contact us" link above.

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 8:39 AM | Report abuse

Come on folks, let's give the Capital Weather guys the benefit of the doubt. I really can't imagine that after spending so much time building up the previous blog to what it had become that they would throw it away and "sell out." Think about something you have invested a lot of time, energy and heart in - would you just chuck it? Obviously, the guys think this move will allow them to do more and do it better, otherwise they wouldn't do it.

(By the way, how do you sell out if you are still keeping your day job? If was selling out, I'd make the Post me me on staff :))

Let's give this a chance. I'm certainly as interested as everyone to see if things change going forward. I'm particularly looking to see if Steve continues his strident work, particularly panning the Post on occasion - I didn't always agree with him, but I always looked forward to reading what he would post next. And that's the point of a blog, after all.

As for me, in terms of content, I haven't noticed a big change so far - it just looks different. And I kind of like the bar at the left that allows you to click through recent posts. And count me as one that DOESN'T miss the NWS 7-day at the top. It was always wrong, and changed several times a day.

Posted by: Southside FFX | January 9, 2008 8:41 AM | Report abuse

That was supposed to be "If I was selling out, I'd make the Post put me on staff."

Haven't finished my coffee yet.

Posted by: Southside FFX | January 9, 2008 8:43 AM | Report abuse

Yep, turning AdBlock off for blog.washingtonpost.com worked. The page is formatted correctly now.

Posted by: Bikerjohn | January 9, 2008 9:05 AM | Report abuse

The GFS is up to its usual flip/floping tricks. The latest run is bringing a more robust system back toward the coast instead of out to sea. All hope is not lost, especially with the GGEM and ECMWF on board.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 9, 2008 9:07 AM | Report abuse

9:07 post was me.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 9, 2008 9:09 AM | Report abuse

Nice photo Ian!

Posted by: Kevin | January 9, 2008 9:10 AM | Report abuse

Agreed Jim and Southside. It's a little premature to jump ship on the community that so many of us have come to depend on daily for scientific insight, weather dork camaraderie, and a few laughs -- that's right Bombo, I hope the change of venue doesn't signal the end of the occasional dancecast. Congrats on the move Cap Wx. I look forward riding out many more storms with you in the future.

63.1F and sun making an appearance at Franklin Square.

Posted by: Parker | January 9, 2008 9:17 AM | Report abuse

Let me add my voice to that of Jim in Blacksburg and Southside FFX: Give this new alliance a chance to work out or fail on its own before you turn your back. I noticed that the team was all over this new site yesterday, responding to issues and posts all day long. Besides, the capwx team has clearly stated that their goal is to subvert the wapo.com from within - doesn't sound like a sellout to me. ;-) But it sure seems like winter has sold out completely!

Posted by: ~sg | January 9, 2008 9:20 AM | Report abuse

Jim, we were typing almost identical comments at almost the same time. And we are both lawyers.

(Freaky . . . )

Posted by: Southside FFX | January 9, 2008 9:37 AM | Report abuse

Folks -

If you don't like the new format --- go visit Hype-U-Weather.com (Accuweather) and stop repeatedly complaining. It is easy to complain. If you do complain, at least offer some "solutions" that will make the site better.

I have some positive comments:

1) I love the fact that I can read posts and make posts on my AT&T Blackberry.

2) It seems as if there are more contributors from the Cap team throughout the day.

3) Quicker load time through the Post.

Good work guys. For the first day - A+!

Now..

Let's get some bad weather!!!! SNOW!

Posted by: Greg | January 9, 2008 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Turning off AdBlock on "this page only" fixed the Firefox formatting problems for me.

I think the old "Almanac" section used to include today's Sunrise and Sunset times. I don't see that now. Could we have that back? I can find it elsewhere, but I found it reassuring to know that the sunlit hours are indeed getting a bit longer every day and that spring will be back eventually.

Posted by: Jim F | January 9, 2008 9:53 AM | Report abuse

So far I haven't been disappointed. It's a bit early to jump the gun and call this a sell out.

Posted by: jtf | January 9, 2008 9:55 AM | Report abuse

Sterling is less certain about the Sunday night/Monday storm. TWC seems to have the precipitation mainly to our south. Temperatures on Sunday are also supposed to rise into the "boring forties", effectively wiping out any SERIOUS snow chances, at least here in town.

Jet streams: There's little or no split flow this morning in the Northern Hemisphere, except possibly over central China. However we do have a nice vigorous circumpolar jet. The Southern Hemisphere circumpolar jet is passing only over Patagonia at present, but approaches South Island, NZ and the extreme SW tip of Western Australia. Otherwise it's completely over the ocean. The area approaching South Africa appears to be fading out.

In response to my question regarding the "Snow Lover's Crystal Ball" I was directed to the "Frequently Asked Questions". The only problem: I can't seem to find an "FAQ" button to mouse-click anywhere here on the site.

Posted by: El Bombo (John Andre) | January 9, 2008 9:56 AM | Report abuse

A Wednesday hello to new visitors and old! Mingle, would you please?

Michael -- one of the reasons we've become known in the DC area (and nationally) and thus able to attract the Post's attention is our respected reputation for only hyping the weather when hype is warranted. So I don't think we'll be changing our tune on that.

Appreciate the comments (good and bad) from everyone. Our visitors are who we want to serve best, so we need to know what you like and don't like, what you miss and don't miss. Over time, we will be adding and improving to the solid foundation that's already been built.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 9:58 AM | Report abuse

How would one find this blog going straight to the Post site? I can't imagine that the old Capitalweather.com site is going to remain active forever.

Posted by: Frank | January 9, 2008 9:59 AM | Report abuse

If you guys selling out to the Post means that I keep getting weather like this, then, by all means, continue to sell out.

The new format seems great so far.

Posted by: doug | January 9, 2008 10:02 AM | Report abuse

Just found the "Frequent Questions" button!!! Works fine!

Now I need to find the Post's "Politics" and "Sports" blogs. That Clinton win in NH sure was a surprise! (I also think Joe Gibbs should have served his five-year term, though he was receiving extensive criticism on coaching decisions after the loss to the Bills, if memory serves me right.)

Posted by: El Bombo (JEA) | January 9, 2008 10:09 AM | Report abuse

Honestly, I didn't know anything about the Capital Weather team until they appeared on the Post web site, and I for one think it's awesome! I didn't know there were other people out there who were fascinated with local weather, espcially snow events. I love snow, and winter is my favorite season. I like bundling up in chilly temperatures, I love the quiet wonder of snowfall, and I enjoy short days and long nights. Does that make me weird? This warm front has been a real downer for me.

Posted by: Lisa | January 9, 2008 10:12 AM | Report abuse

First off, I am glad to see this evolution of the site it's not perfect but change never is. I do miss not having the weekly forecast a the top but that's pretty minor.

I did have a couple of questions regarding the move over to the Post.

Do you think comments from other area forecasters will be less likely now? I recall Tony Perkins & Doug Hill, contributing on the old site.

Also, on the main weather page of the post their forecasts are supplied by AccuWeather is that partially the reason for the lack of links to WeatherUnderground or NWS?

I realize this new site is evolving and was just curious.

Posted by: John - Burke | January 9, 2008 10:20 AM | Report abuse

Until the Firefox/Adblock compatibility issue is fixed, I can't bring myself to visit this site as frequently as I did capitalweather.com, which for the past 3 years has been the first site I visit every morning when I woke up.

How convenient it is that you can't view the site correctly when Adblock is enabled. I'm pointing the accusing finger at the Post, and not the capitalweather.com team, by the way.

In the past, the webmaster would have scrambled for a fix. I don't mind you guys moving to the Post or the new format--in fact, I like it all better. But don't cripple the tech-savvy folks that are used to using Firefox and some of the most widely used extensions.

Your site is broken, and it's in everyone's best interest that it gets fixed. Unless the Post doesn't see any value in visitors that block advertisements. Heck, I'd be willing to pay a small monthly fee NOT to see the advertisements. I'm not going to resort to using Internet Explorer or disabling Adlbock on this page just to read your content. No thanks.

Posted by: Solarspark | January 9, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Looking good gang. different isn't always bad. and i'll second the previous poster, if your move has anything to do with this balmy weather, bring it on. bad for my allergies, good for my psyche!

Posted by: Rishi | January 9, 2008 10:38 AM | Report abuse

Lisa: Yes, it does make you weird. But welcome to the club!! :-)

Posted by: Nader | January 9, 2008 10:52 AM | Report abuse

Lisa:

Weird to most people, yes. To most of the visitors to this site.. not so much! :).

Southside FFX:

Maybe all we lawyers do think alike.. scary..

Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 9, 2008 11:30 AM | Report abuse

A quick look at the latest models ... and my conclusion is that I wouldn't give up hope yet on a wintry threat for late Sunday/Monday.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 11:35 AM | Report abuse

I would doubt seriously that we are going to get comments from Tony Pann and Doug Hill now that they have aligned with the Post. Not going to happen. But does anyone have a clue how to find this blog by going straight to the Post site without using the old Capitalweather URL?

Posted by: Frank | January 9, 2008 11:41 AM | Report abuse

First visit since the move. One of the things I liked so much about the old site was the sense of community and the local ness of it. This at the moment feels just like going to a tv station or newspapers weather page. Not quite the same but I am sure I will get used to it.

I dont like the click here to read more of the article I would rather be able to scroll down tosee what I want to read.

As for the storm next week a GFS out to sea is not a bad place for it to be 4-5 days out. If its still out to sea in 2 days time I will give up on it.

We are due a big storm this year at some point, based on my number of 90 degree days in summer rule so maybe this is it or maybe it is later but it will come....

Posted by: Andrew | January 9, 2008 11:42 AM | Report abuse

SolarPark {RE: Adblock, etc}. A few notes (I'd be happy to get more in depth with you off the comments, see the Contact Us link}.

Adblock doesn't work beacuse the post's template wasn't built to degrade without ads. Whether on purpose or not, this is the case (And I talked to post designers about this yesterday after complaints, they gave me the impression it is a Bug, not a feature). However, all of the post blogs (some 30+ of them) share the same template. On the old site, if I wanted to do something, I would just do it. Now, there is quite the orchestration that has to go on. So just because you don't see action, doesn't mean work isn't being done. I can't tell you what the posts views on adblock are, but trust me, they don't like losing visitors anymore than you like seeing ads.

And finally, to most of the regulars today, thanks for the kind words. Change is always a shock, and not always good. But I for one know that if this is selling out, I'm not making enough ;) We are here for the same reasons we always have been, just with the power of the post behind us. And want to know a secret? We were getting ready to go to many of these changes OVER a year ago on our own until the Post came into play and we regrouped. Please bare with us as we continue to work out all the kinks.

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 11:43 AM | Report abuse

You guys were awesome so I will check back in a month or so. Your previous web layout was nearly ideal while the Post layout is very very bad.

As a longtime fan I had made your old site my home page. With the news format you are mostly useless.

OLD SITE:
weekly forecast on one graphic with one click detail if needed.

Interesting Picture with story

Objective Detail on Predictions

Near Real-Time Updates

NEW SITE

Lots of Words

Forcast Button that leads to description of weather

Lots of pictures of the people (Bob Ryan looks better and is very nice)

'Stay Fresh All Day' print material (Correct me if I am wrong but didnt local news crush print forecasts in the 1560's?).

Congrats on your new gig but it is not useful for readonthefly webbies like me...


Posted by: dono | January 9, 2008 11:50 AM | Report abuse

Congrats Capital Weather! (Gang!) I can't wait to what happens. I should let you know that Accuweather (which I check to see if that crazy dude is doing the video forcast which he was yesterday) has a little banner up top welcoming people from Capital Weather.com. Thought that was interesting.

Posted by: phanie | January 9, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

Hmm, I guess one other thing I miss (and I know you can do this with RSS feeds but it's not the same) is the old site telling me when comments were updated. All in all though, even though it was an initial shock, it's growing on me. Oh and the people who are complaining about adblock, you can just tell it to not do that for this one site. Ya ya I know you will get a couple of ads but who cares, it's the content that counts and it's not like they're putting those annoying ads on here that take over a huge chunk of your screen screen and you "accidentally" click on them and they open up a new browser.

Posted by: paul - sterling | January 9, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Frank: CapitalWeather.com will always forward to this Capital Weather Gang blog. No need to change bookmarks and you will always be able to type that easy-to-remember URL

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 12:16 PM | Report abuse

Great question about the comment RSS feed, I can look into that. It's not a feature I used on the old site, but I can see it's use (and quite frankily, why capitalweather always had (and still has) more comments than almost all post blogs.

Posted by: Jamie Jones, CapitalWeatherGang | January 9, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, SouthsideFFX, and others, for your comments. They haven't shut me up yet! In case they do, however, I already have CapitalClimate reserved at Blogger :).

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Good to hear Jason but how do you expect to attract new readers if they;

1. have never heard of Capitalweather in the first place (already read two posts where people said that they had not heard of it)

2. if they can't find it on the Post site

3. seems to me that the Post should give you a big link for at least several months. one day wasn't what I expected

Posted by: Frank | January 9, 2008 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Frank-- washingtonpost.com/weather (the main weather page) will permanently link to us prominently... and links will be in several other places on the site. Plus, we'll be plugged on news/metro front pages during active weather.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

CapWxGang: I agree with the others who've mentioned it, wapo.com needs to put a new link on its home page to the capitalwxgang blog feature. Can you lobby for that? Shall we start an email-writing campaign?

Dear washingtonpost.com:
I am a CapitalWeather fan. Please create a new link to your newest and HOTTEST blog, the Capital Weather Gang, on your washingtonpost.com home page. This will increase the number of casual wapo.com visitors who will come back time and again to your home page to find the new weather blog...and who are consequently likely to explore other wapo.com features and increase page hit counts overall.

Posted by: ~sg | January 9, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

It should be illegal to work on days like today. It is currently 54 with bright blue sky here and light winds. I'd much rather be hiking than at my desk working! :)

Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 9, 2008 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Frank and others, as of right now, if you go to the washington post home page and scroll down to where the big black "gallery" box is, in the center column directly above this is a section labeled "News Columns and Blogs". Right now (and yesterday) there is a link that says "NEW BLOG: Weather Gang" and then the title of the most recent posting.

While it won't always be listed in the top three direct links, if you click on the plus sign below the "News Columns and Blogs" section, a popover listing all the blogs will come up. You will be able to click on the link for "Weather Gang" there.

Alternatively, if you scroll down to below the main headline at the time, on the left hand side of the page is a drop down box titled "Editorials, Opinions, Columns, and Blogs." At the bottom of the drop down list is the "Blog Directory". Select this and then the "Weather Gang" will be listed under the "Local" section.

I'm new to this blog but there is some definately interesting stuff here. I'm a local Washingtonian who loves when it snows (though I think I might have jinxed it this year because I got new snow boots for Christmas...still a lot of winter left though).

Posted by: Laura | January 9, 2008 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Another absolutely gorgeous day...nice to have a westerly wind, usually with these warm up we are a bit cooler than locals farther inland, but with a westerly wind and bay temps relatively warm our temp of 63F here in arnold is about the same as other places not on the water...

Posted by: arnoldkh | January 9, 2008 2:11 PM | Report abuse

Thought I would introduce myself and respond to a couple of things here: I am the editor at wp.com working with the CW gang. We are delighted this blog has joined our family, and we want to continue making this the best source of local weather info anywhere. We and the CW Gang are kicking around lots of new ideas, and we are eager to hear yours. We are working hard on the early hiccups, although as previously stated, I'm not sure if we'll be able to fix the adblock issue on our end for Firefox users. But we're looking at it. As for navigation: There might not always be home-page promotion. We want to give it the biggest boost possible, but there's lots of competition, too, so promotion will move around. But I would invite everyone to simply bookmark the page: blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang.

We are very glad you all are here, and look forward to chatting more. Enjoy the weather!

Posted by: Jonathan Krim | January 9, 2008 2:27 PM | Report abuse

Do you all have model links in this new format? I hear the EURO has a monster storm marching up the seaboard early next week...

Posted by: GFP | January 9, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

GFP, the 12z Euro does have a very large storm tracking right up the coast (just inland) early next week (Sun/Mon). It's not a very good track for much of this region (except perhaps favored far western portions). On the bright side, it would bring some still needed rain to the area.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Model Mavens,
Here's a handy link from the Bucket O' Bookmarks.

Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | January 9, 2008 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Congrats on the new venue for Capital Weather. One comment that I have about the new setup has to do with the RSS feed. In the blog's former location the RSS feed for each blog entry would show the entry in its entirety within your RSS reader. I liked the fact that I didn't have to click any links to see the whole posting. I may be alone in this opinion, but I thought that was pretty cool and I miss it.

Posted by: Eric in DC | January 9, 2008 5:00 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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