Possible Ice, Then Buckets of Rain
We are monitoring the potential for some sleet or freezing rain accumulation north and west of the Beltway late Thursday night into early Friday morning, which could produce some hazardous conditions (see Josh's full forecast). But the majority of the precipitation in the region is expected to be plain ol' rain during the day Friday, and there could be a whole lot of it and even some isolated flooding. The National Weather Service indicates:
[PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS] LOOK VERY HIGH W/ AN INCREDIBLE GULF MOISTURE TAP FROM THE BEGINNINGS OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
How much rain are we talking about?
Two of the major U.S. weather models -- the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) -- are predicting (see graphic below) a substantial accumulation of rain over the area in the 24-hour period ending 7 p.m. Friday. The GFS (left) predicts at least an inch of water will fall, with the NAM (right) coming in at a minimum of about 1.25 inches. The pinkish color indicates areas of 1.5 inches or more. In both models, areas south and east of the Beltway are predicted to receive greater amounts than to the north and west.
Model graphics courtesy the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Where is all this moisture coming from? The Gulf of Mexico. You'll notice that both models show a colorful plume of moisture stretching from the Gulf to New England. As low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf Coast, winds from the south out in front of the low (winds circulate counterclockwise around low pressure) will draw up moisture from the Gulf. It's these winds that will also pump warmer air northward, eventually pushing out of the way the cold air that will be responsible for precipitation starting out as ice in parts of the metro area.
Bottom line: Get ready to be soaked.
By Camden Walker |
January 31, 2008; 11:00 AM ET
Winter Storms
Previous: Forecast: Dry Today, Wet Tomorrow |
Next: CommuteCast: Increasing Clouds this Evening
Posted by: Bikerjohn | January 31, 2008 11:20 AM
Sounds like a good day to telecommute. If not pack your rain gear.
Posted by: John - Burke | January 31, 2008 11:20 AM
Telecommuting sounds like a great idea! ;)
Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 11:42 AM
We are under an ice storm warning down here, with the possibility of as much as a half inch of ice. It looks like temps should drop below freezing tonight, and stay that way, possibly as late as mid-morning tomorrow. When you add in the heavy precip coming, thats an icy formula.
Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 31, 2008 11:53 AM
Absolutely SUCKS for snow lovers, but it is good for the drought!
Just think, if it were cold enough at all layers of the atmosphere, we'd be burried under 10-15+ inches of snow. That makes me want to cry.
Hopefully it'll ice long enough on the western half of PWC for they to panic and close schools after that little fiasco a few weeks ago.
Posted by: weatherdudeVA | January 31, 2008 12:18 PM
Are you guys going to issue an ice forecast for North and West of DC? NWS is going with 1/4 to 1/2 inch i suppose. Most are saying 1/4 inch in the i-81 corridor with less east of the blue ridge. I'd be curious to know when surface temps will rise above freezing out here in the Shenandoah Valley during the storm. I suspect mid-morning to noon is when we switch to regular rain. I wish this was sleet or snow. I hate zrain---its beautiful but it causes so much trouble its just not worth it.
Posted by: winchester | January 31, 2008 12:27 PM
Of course we get 2 inches of rain when we are 10 degrees off from 2 feet of snow.
Posted by: Period | January 31, 2008 12:45 PM
I'm curious like "winchester" mentioned...him, Jim, Jim and I are all in the affected area, kind of a dearth of mention on the various boards today in reference to it, hopefully the Team will give us there thoughts for us ;)
Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 31, 2008 01:02 PM
Ice accumulation updates will certainly be in our Gang posts this evening. Stay tuned. And if you are along the I-81 (or west of there) corridor, please prepare.. and be cautious tomorrow!
Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 01:44 PM
I have a meeting in Charlottesville at 2 PM tomorrow. I'm driving from Warrenton and taking 29 all the way in (the building is right off of 29). What should I expect for my drive (if it's too bad, I won't go)?
Posted by: J in Warrenton | January 31, 2008 02:05 PM
What are the chances for pockets of ice in Montgomery and Fairfax?
Posted by: Uncle Dak | January 31, 2008 02:17 PM
We'll have our best estimates re: icy impacts for the metro area and surrounding region starting with the CommuteCast in about an hour and then with a follow-up update around 7 or 7:30pm (with schoolcast)
Posted by: Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 02:33 PM
This morning i my tires slipped on ice and i almost crashed into another person. Dont worry nothing happened my question is why hasn't the snow melted from like 3 weeks ago. Its been in the 40 degree range plenty of times I thought
Posted by: Joey DC | January 31, 2008 02:37 PM
We need the rain.
Posted by: sbg | January 31, 2008 02:42 PM
Yeah right, can't we just call it quits??? No snow to speak of so now all the hype is now focused on brace yourselves 'RAIN" whoop...as if this is some strange happening! When will it all end? Am I the only one who thinks during the newscast that the weather dweebs get far too much TV time?
Posted by: newageweather | January 31, 2008 03:06 PM
Folks just go on the web and pull up your trust radar and figure it out...
Posted by: newageweather | January 31, 2008 03:10 PM
Getting decent cloud cover in Metro area now.
Any chance this keeps tonight's lows above freezing?
Posted by: Ivan | January 31, 2008 03:10 PM
WWA posted
MDZ004-005-VAZ037>042-050-051-010300-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.080201T0700Z-080201T1900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.080201T0700Z-080201T1700Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-
FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...CULPEPER
303 PM EST THU JAN 31 2008
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM
EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT THEN UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4
AM...SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN MARYLAND
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THE TIME PRECIPITATION
BEGINS...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX WITH SLEET AT
TIMES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO TENTHS OF INCH CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING
Posted by: Big Goob | January 31, 2008 03:13 PM
WINTER STORM WARNING for the Shenandoah Valley tonight and Fri.am. Ice accretion of .20 - .60".
Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 31, 2008 03:20 PM
i think we can assume a fairly wretched am commute, and hopefully, a delay for lo co and fauquier schools. Also power outages .....
Posted by: weathergrrl | January 31, 2008 03:58 PM
Maybe a cancellation for loco its good to get all those inexperienced drivers off the road.
Posted by: Joey DC | January 31, 2008 04:03 PM
Buckets of rain
Buckets of tears
Got all them buckets comin' out of my ears.
Buckets of moonbeams in my hand,
I got all the love, honey baby,
You can stand.
Posted by: Bob Dylan | January 31, 2008 04:25 PM
Probably staying home tomorrow. It may let up some in time for my Friday night Mardi Gras dance.
Posted by: El Bombo | January 31, 2008 04:43 PM
Camden, I will be really sad if the entire Winter goes by without a "Camden's Crazies" event.
Posted by: Dave in Adams Morgan | January 31, 2008 06:28 PM
My guess from looking at local dewpoints and the fact of fairly high barometric pressure at the surface, that we should be seeing freezing rain to at 9Am tomorrow in Fairfax and Prince William Counties.
The fact of a somewhat back ridging high pressure to our N.E. is another support for this estimate. I think we will get .2" of ice by that time,fun.
Posted by: Peter Roach | January 31, 2008 08:59 PM
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