Update: Assessing Impacts of AM Ice
Some school delays possible
**Winter Weather Advisory 2 a.m. to 12 p.m. Friday N & W of DC**
As a super wet storm clashes with some residual cold air over the region late tonight, sleet and freezing rain is possible in the normally colder spots of our area outside the beltway. Precipitation is most likely to break out between 2am and 4am to the southwest and west (Fauquier and Loudoun counties), between 4am and 6am inside the beltway and between 6am and 8am to the east and northeast (Calvert and Anne Arundel counties).
The greatest risk of icy weather will be in Loudoun and Frederick counties and points to the north and west (up to 0.25-0.5" of ice is possible in locations like Winchester and Hagerstown). However, a bit of iciness is possible as close-in as Oakton, VA and Gaithersburg, MD. Because temperatures will be close to freezing, major roads in these areas should be passable. However, ramps, bridges, overpasses and untreated side streets may become icy.
For more on the morning impacts of this storm and our SchoolCast, keep reading...
The ice will not last long changing over to plain rain by mid-morning. However, the ice may be disruptive enough early to cause rush hour problems and school delays.
- Fauquier, Loudoun and Frederick counties:
- Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince William, Anne Arundel and Prince George's counties:
- Alexandria, Arlington, DC and Calvert and Charles counties:
While icy conditions will end in most areas by mid-morning, rain will continue, heavy at times, through the afternoon. As Camden discussed earlier, our region will pick up a much needed one to two inches of rain. To the east and especially southeast (towards Fredericksburg, Richmond and the Eastern Shore), severe thunderstorms are even a possibility. We'll keep you posted about the development of any strong storms tomorrow.
By Jason Samenow |
January 31, 2008; 7:41 PM ET
Updates
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Posted by: missy | January 31, 2008 7:56 PM
montgomery county?? I predicted no school at 11:00am. Chances of this prediction bearing fruit?
Posted by: Ken | January 31, 2008 8:09 PM
whatever. At least its friday tomorow. I don't really care if I get a delay or not. Anyway, what are the chances of delay or closing for MCPS
Posted by: d | January 31, 2008 8:10 PM
Missy-- I added Prince William Co... 1.5 apples
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 8:21 PM
d: Montgomery has 1.5 apples. I would say 50/50 chance of a delay, but you will be open unless it's worse than expected.
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 8:22 PM
Below freezing now in McLean, with the humidity up to 43%. I'm pessimistic about how long this cold air will stay in place, but it's a good sign to see a little moisture in the air. Pressure at 1030, but I expect that to plunge once the low gets closer.
Posted by: mcleaNed | January 31, 2008 8:24 PM
Its 34 degrees in east Loudoun any type of Loco school cast? Is there a place on this new site for the dif types of casts
Posted by: Joey DC | January 31, 2008 8:29 PM
Ahh never mind I got it I didnt read
Posted by: Joey DC | January 31, 2008 8:30 PM
Joey-- The SchoolCast for Loudoun is right in front of you. 2.5 apples.
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 8:31 PM
I need no school in MCPS
Posted by: Peyton | January 31, 2008 8:32 PM
30.9 on the home thermometer in Darnestown, confirmed by a 31.6 I checked on weather bug for the school very close to me. I think it's pretty likely Montgomery County will delay two hours, they usually judge according to Poolesville and/or Damascus. I saw also that Frederick is down to 27 latest hour, and we all know the models don't deal well with cold air damming.
Posted by: Curtis | January 31, 2008 8:32 PM
Well, the ice tonight west of the city may be one thing, but ther real interesting stuff could be with the cold front tomorrow afternoon, especially if we get into the warm sector beforehand. We could see some real convection and some rare January thunderstorms here.....SPC has lower southern MD in a significant risk for severe.
Posted by: Mike | January 31, 2008 8:33 PM
Yeah thanks Jason sorry usually im on top of things like that
Posted by: Joey DC | January 31, 2008 8:38 PM
What do you guys think for western Loudoun in terms of ice accumulation? NWS doesn't seem to have the slightest idea.
I posted this directed toward Mr. Livingston a while ago. Apparently he doesn't like me. :-)
Now it's 31.5, seems cooler than expected. Will this influence your next forecast?
Posted by: Model Monkey | January 31, 2008 8:44 PM
I'm leaning towards no school for mcps! Ice starting around 2 am this morning... changing to rain about 9am or so? It will be to late for a delay by that point. We have 4 days we haven't used yet. I'm thinking ice will be significant around Poolesville. Crossing my fingers anyways.
Posted by: Ken | January 31, 2008 8:46 PM
Model Monkey: In western Loudoun, I think a decent glaze is possible before the changeover...maybe 0.1-0.2"...
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 8:57 PM
A light sleet shower is falling at 9 pm. 33 degrees
Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 31, 2008 9:01 PM
Public schools will be CLOSED in Calvert County... as previously scheduled. (Parent Conferences/Staff Development Day; No School For Students.)
Posted by: Frank T. Parish | January 31, 2008 9:05 PM
It's quiet...
Guess everyone is watching Lost. :)
Posted by: Peter | January 31, 2008 9:55 PM
LOL. I'm watching lost and waiting for commets.
Posted by: Ken | January 31, 2008 9:59 PM
Temperature is now back above freezing and rising--a bad sign. Our hope now lies in ground temperatures, but I doubt that the roads ever got below freezing.
Posted by: mcleaNed | January 31, 2008 10:03 PM
Looks like teachers in the eastern panhandle of WV can sleep in a bit...2 hour delays..oh I miss those days....Oceanic 6????
Posted by: Sara in Oakton | January 31, 2008 10:06 PM
dont talk about lost i havve it tivod. dont talk about it.
Posted by: JJ | January 31, 2008 10:12 PM
This was in the NWS LWX discussion as of 954 pm...bad news for students in PWC...
CONTEMPLATED DROPPING THE COUNTIES FROM FAIRFAX SOUTH TO
SPOTSYLVANIA FROM THE ADVISORY AS IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THE
FORECAST.
Posted by: weatherdudeVA | January 31, 2008 10:13 PM
Update for montgomery county.... anyone??
Posted by: Ken | January 31, 2008 11:04 PM
The trends this yr cannot be fully denied and they have been less cold as the event closes in for just about every storm other than the 2 which gave us snow. Clouds and rising dew points will keep us from much extra cooling overnight.
The NAM is spitting out near and over 1" of rain across the area between 12z and 18z tomorrow, with another good bit over the 6 hours following. GFS is similar, with slightly lesser totals. Both show favorable conditions for a convective line of some sort to pass through. Temperatures could end up a bit warmer than expected if that idea is correct.
Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | January 31, 2008 11:25 PM
To all the students,
I hope everyone gets delayed or cancelled? I remember those days of hope for extra sleep and a day off. I graduated in 96 but remember getting up at 5:00 a.m. glued to the TV/Radio back in good old days. It was even better before a big storm and schools cancelled a day before the storm. I remember going to my buddies down road, watching the weather and just hangin out all night. good times. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, its Friday folks..
Posted by: ChrisfromVA | January 31, 2008 11:27 PM
I have said it all winter and for the past 3 years ++++++
RAIN!
Posted by: GREG | January 31, 2008 11:27 PM
Well Montg kids got a least part of their wish - 2hrs
Posted by: DCScott | February 1, 2008 5:39 AM
im so happy, 2 hr delay for montgomery county. I live in bethesda and there is no snow, i cant tell whether there is ice.
Posted by: sam | February 1, 2008 5:56 AM
How is it looking out there? I gotta drive from Germantown to Silver Spring for school. Will the roads be clear by 8?
Posted by: Ken | February 1, 2008 6:45 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.
ummm...Prince William schoolcast please?