NWS changed their forecast to rain and snow tomarrow "rain with snow mixing in after noon" and to snow likely Wednesday night. 26 degrees here in NW washington dc, dont think anything is coming down though, any ideas if I should travel up to darnestown tonight or if the weather and traffic will be bad?

Just saw that forecast too.

Is there any chance for snow, during the day, tomorrow?

It's been a long, long time since I've seen the "Snow Likely" tag and lows well below freezing in the NWS forecast for McLean. Wednesday night is shaping up to be interesting for two factors: first, low temperatures around 28 will cause rain left over from the snowstorm to freeze in spots, and second, we might just have a snow system on the way!

Sleet is intensifying to the point where I can hear it from inside.

After an 8 degree low yesterday a.m., I was wondering if today's precip was gonna turn nasty on us. Today it never got above 28 degrees out here (New Baltimore). Went out for a walk with the dog and got caught in freezing rain. Already icicles forming on the gutters. And now snow is sneaking in to our wed forecast?????? :)

My hopes are sky high and I know they shouldn't be. Lookie what LWX put in their discussion:

THE NEW LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Yay!

Freezing rain with a bit of sleet downtown. Surfaces are mainly just wet although I noticed a little slickness in a few spots. Please be careful. We'll take another look at snow chances for tomorrow evening/night later on...

Peter -- Just rain during the day tomorrow. Precipitation may end as snow tomorrow night as cold air is drawn in on the back side of the system. But it is hard to get accumulating snow from departing storms such as this. Not impossible, mind you, so I wouldn't rule out the potential for a dusting or so. But the odds of even that are rather low (sorry to be such a downer!).

It's freezing rain-ing in Bethesda.

Is there a verb form of freezing rain?

Anyone else notice that NWS expanded Winter Weather Advisory coverage to the D.C. and Baltimore areas as a whole, not just the outer NW suburbs?

Peter: Fraining?

very cold and some kind of freezing rain coming down in capitol hill...

Hahah, it's official: fraining.

Freezing rain falling in Rockville.

This is the second time in a few weeks that the temperature has risen overnight, instead of doing the sensible thing and dropping. Is is unusual for the temperature to rise overnight? I've never noticed it happening before.

light coating of ice in bethesda

Freezing rain here in Arnold...temp of 28. Sidewalks are slick, roads are just generally wet..

IpsoMetro: two (not all that unusual) factors go into a night of rising temperatures. First, dense cloud cover overspreads the area, which helps insulate the ground below. Second, some sort of warm moisture (often coming in the form of a coastal system) enters the airspace and replaces cool, dry air that would otherwise contribute to lowered temps. It's not a perfect explanation, but I hope I came close enough to help you.

fraining in bethesda, sticking to local sidewalks and small roads. is there any chance of no school for montgomery county tomorrow?

Clarendon Ballroom swing dance still seems to be "on", but I'm beginning to wonder how big the crowd will be.

Light glaze of freezing rain with sleet pellets here in Loudoun, just cloudy right now. Temps are at 27.5 and... falling??? Never got above 29 today. Most of the precip is missing us (up north). Do you expect some to build back in from the south? If not, QPFs will occur mainly tomorrow. Hopefully in snow. ?

32F line holding steady south and east of the city...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s2/s2_loops/fztp/

Thank you, mcleaNed...it sounds far less sinister now. :)

temperatures have fallen from 26 degrees to 25 degrees here in NWDC. I can't hear any sleet coming down and since I haven't been outside I can't tell what is going down. Anyone have any ideas on whether it would be a bad idea to go out to Darnestown tonight at around 7?

Glad to be home, even during heavy sleet bursts drivers were still doing 70ish on I-66.....unreal! Oh well, home and 23 degrees on the Ridge!

Be careful if you're going out guys...

There are TONS of accidents all over PWC, so I could only imagine what it's like in Loudoun, Fairfax, Fauquier, DC and Maryland.

Makes me happy I don't drive...

temps dropping, 70% chance of snow wed. nite

My suggested "interesting twists" from a few days ago for this system continue to unravel!

18z GFS now gives 1-3 inches of snow for many, late tomorrow and tomorrow night, possibly more for some.

Any idea where I can find the SchoolCast apples now? I want to follow it and see if Loudoun is going to have school tomorrow. thanks!

The temperature had fallen here in Loudoun to 26.2, but the roads are only wet, with some slippery spots. Seems to be colder than they thought. (Scottiev: Good news.)
What do you think, CapWx?

what's the schoolcast for moco tomorow? My street is slippery. Noaa is calling for 2 inches of snow tomorrow night, is this true and if so will it stick?

Glad I voted this morning. Because of the primary, I drove and parked on the roof of the Vienna metro. It was covered with a nice layer of ice. Safe at home now!

We'll have an update on snow/school later this evening.

Some icy elevated items here in Glover Park... roads wet, some sidewalks slightly slippery. Increased dun angle helped during the day.

will it feezing rain all night? what is the high for tonight?

I have the same questions as d. Go d!

Icy spots in Rosslyn. I took a digger in the crosswalk coming out of the Metro. I'm very glad I took the CWG advice and voted this morning.

NWS officially says that the temperature won't get above freezing tonight in PWC...

Lake Ridge:
"Low around 32. "

Manassas:
"Low around 31. "

Haymarket:
"Low around 30. "

...wow, it's amazing how everything changes in a few hours.

Look. It'll be the Christmas Miracle that we never got.

The temps will be below freezing all of tonight and tomorrow. There will be 1.5 FEET of snow on the ground and everyone (except VDOT) will be happy. =D

There's a plume of moisture that has developed from Charlottesville to DC area that looks to 'train' over the area for a while. Temps aren't going anywhere right away and with loss of daylight any untreated surfaces will begin to ice up easier.

Period, when I'm president will you be one of my national meteorologists? Along with the CWG, of course :)LOL

weatherdudeVA- the low is not the high, temperatures will be rising during the night, rising to above freezing

Icing up in East Silver Spring too, including my wooden front stairs where I fell. The roads west toward Georgia Avenue were fine. Some sidewalks are already slick.

I'm sorry Murre :-(

I'm NOT going outside tonight!

Random though: My neighbor's kid is bouncing on a pogo stick in their house and driving me mad. I can HEAR IT from next door!

SLCB tomorrow?? I'm suprised there is not more mention of this? I heard earlier foreacts of some light snow but no accumulation.

GFS keeps holding coastal development scnerior. DC seem looks to be in 1-3+ inch range. Points south & east maybe more. 850 line is well into VA tomorrow night

Won't get hopes up 4 any accumating snow Wed., in the general DC area. Prec. will probably exit the area b4 temps r cold enuf. 4 snow. Once again, as it happens many times in this area, the system is 2 far N & W. Almost time 2 put a fork in this winter.

My gut feeling says that even the immediate DC metro area may see accumulating snow late tomorrow into early Thursday. I think at least a couple inches are easily within the realm of possibility -- perhaps more.

I think Temps in northern MD and northern MOCO will stay at or below freezing but southern MD, I am Sorry :-(

Woah, big precip gap coming.

Grrrr. >:-[

and less West, correct Jason?

Augusta Jim,

Could this coastal event tomorrow night overpreform our current expectations? You seem to have good read on current trends.

The weather has become such a huge story I almost forgot about the primaries. Yikes. I'll track the results on TV and the weather here. That sounds like a plan.

Josh, that is one of the best things I've read in a long time. YAY!

Oppss.......meant "Josh" as he posts from his cozy lair in Colorado! (My comment was based on 18zGFS)

Remember last Valentine's Day when all the local mets thought the storm would fizzle out and become rain? And then remember waking up with 6 inches of frozen solid white stuff on the ground?

There was ice on the sidewalks here on the Walter Reed campus at 4pm and I took a pretty bad spill and hurt my R hip and shoulder. Good thing I'm close to a ... gulp... ER. Now surfaces have about 1/10in of ice on them and they're having a hard time keeping up with icy trouble spots. I was going to go to a bible study tonight but now I'm staying in and not even going to venture out for dinner. Thank God for frozen pizza and buffalo wings!

Josh-- I'm not ready to pull the trigger on this yet (for forecasting accumulating snow). We need to wait to see the next model run. I don't put a lot of stock into 18z runs AND, importantly, rain to snow forecasts don't usually turn out well here.

Anyone know how the bridges into the city from VA are (Roosevelt, specifically)?

Hmmm... frozen pizza and buffalo wings or Bible study...

Now that's one HARD choice. =P

Jason, not pulling the trigger yet either. I just think that the potential is there. The 0z runs should provide some more clarity.

new in from NWS
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
643 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016-VAZ037>042-050>056-130400-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-080213T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.IS.W.0001.080212T2343Z-080213T1200Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-
FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG
643 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED AN
ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. UNDERNEATH THE
PRECIPITATION...THE GROUND AND AIR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND REMAIN AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. THESE AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS OF ICE COULD ALSO LEAD TO DOWNING OF
TREES AND POWER LINES.

Period...I sooo appreciate your perspective. Think snow! :)

Ladies and Gents, Jason and Josh are BOTH meteorologists from THIS area.....discussing the weather and potential right in front of your eyes....try and match that anywhere else....you think this is something....wait till the BIG one is barreling down on us! ;)
Good stuff, GREAT site!

It took one of my friends an hour to drive from IKEA to University of Maryland, that's only 3 miles. He said the ramps from Rt 1 to 193 were closed and they had just cleared an accident at Campus Dr. I'm so glad my drive home is only 1 mile. I'm loading up on work to take home with me in case the morning is bad.

Sidewalks in the Carlyle area of Alexandria are covered in ice, streets are gridlocked as of about 6:40.

Ice storm warning!!!!??

I think this is what we call a busted forecast. :)

I'm in the Carlyle area of Alexandria as well and have been home sick all day. My balcony has been icy since noon (I know- elevated surface) but it gives you a sense of what the ramps must be like out there by now. It is very exciting tracking the weather and reading everyone's insightful comments. Keep up the good work CAPX Gang!

do you think there is a chance for no school in montg. ct tomarrow?

models are underestimating the low level cold air it seems this winter the same thing happend last month when we got a couple of inches in the area when the forecast was called for a quick changeover to rain ...excited for backside snow and the weekend what an eventful week this could be

So I guess my question is, why are the temps NOT gonna rise as was previously thought????
Of all types of weather, this has got to be the absolute worst kind to drive in. On my way home from school a wreck on black ice happened literally right in front of us. Luckily, no one was seriously injured but EMS was so busy they hasn't showed up by the time we left.

Take the models out back and shoot them.

Wowzers. This is Bonkers with a CAPITAL B. Ice Storm Warning? Totally amazing.

I can never see a 1/4 of ice accumulate, which would suck for whoever has to travel, but would still be muy interesante.

Keep it coming, I am SO hoping for no school- I have WAY too much stuff to do. :o) (I'm a teacher)

A friend of mine who works in DC and lives in Woodbridge just made it home.....SIX HOURS after she left work. She said the mixing bowl is a nightmare.