Primary Prediction: Skimpy Snow to Slick Ice
Today's biggest threat: Light afternoon ice
*Winter Weather Advisory north of D.C. from noon to 10 p.m. today*
*Best voting weather is in the morning. Vote early!*
Voter turnout in the Potomac Primary may be hampered by some wintry weather, especially later this afternoon. A weak, but complex storm system over the Tennessee Valley will slowly drift east during the day. Light snow will break out in the early morning hours mainly in the far-reaching suburbs well north and west of DC (towards Frederick, Md). The closer in suburbs and the District may experience a period of light snow or flurries in the morning, but any light snow will be spotty and intermittent with little or no accumulation. The main slug of precipitation will arrive later in the afternoon in the form of light sleet, freezing rain and rain. Your best bet is to vote before this steadier, icy precipitation moves in.
DC Forecast | Maryland Forecast | Virginia Forecast
Note: This is a complex storm so forecast confidence, on a scale from 1 to 10, is about 6.5.
Detailed DC Forecast (polls open from 7am to 8pm)
Before the polls open: Some intermittent light snow/flurries may (30%) develop in the pre-dawn hours. This could cause a quick dusting, but more likely it will just be cloudy and cold with temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
7am - 1pm: While some patchy light snow or flurries cannot be ruled out (30%), it will mainly be cloudy and very chilly with temperatures only climbing to near 30 by lunchtime. District voters shouldn't encounter much inclement weather issues during this time.
1pm - 8pm: Light sleet and freezing rain will move into the area during the mid to late afternoon (60%). Precipitation will be light, but surface temperatures will be in the low 30s. Some slick spots are definitely possible on sidewalks, bridges, overpasses, and less traveled streets. Toward the end of this period temperatures will likely rise into the mid 30s and just plain rain will fall, but the timing is still uncertain as to when temperatures in DC rise above freezing.
After the polls close: Rain will become steadier and more widespread as temperatures slowly climb into the upper 30s and low 40s overnight.
Detailed Maryland Forecast (polls open from 7am to 8pm)
Before the polls open: Snow will break out well north and west of town in the pre-dawn hours (50%) and attempt to creep into the closer suburbs (30%). Areas like Damascus, Frederick and Germantown may even see a coating of snow before dawn. However, with very dry air in place, any snow that falls will be light and intermittent. Temperatures will range from the mid teens to the low 20s.
7am - 1pm: Apart from some patchy light snow and flurries, especially northwest of the beltway, it will just be cloudy and cold with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 20s. This is the best time for suburban MD voters to go to the polls.
1pm - 8pm: Light sleet and freezing rain will arrive in the area during the mid to late afternoon (60%). Precipitation will be light, but surface temperatures will be near 30. Anything that falls will stick so some slick spots are definitely possible on sidewalks, bridges, overpasses, and less traveled streets, especially north and west of town where more significant icing is possible. Toward the end of this period temperatures will likely rise into the low to mid 30s and just plain rain will fall east of I-95. However, in Montgomery and Frederick counties, and points north and west, temperatures are likely to remain at or below freezing until the polls close. As precipitation intensity increases, there could be some moderate icing problems in those areas that stay below 32.
After the polls close: Precipitation will become steadier and more widespread. While some isolated areas could stay below freezing with icing issues continuing, most everyone will be above freezing by late evening through midnight and just plain rain will fall as temperatures rise through the 30s overnight.
Detailed Virginia Forecast (polls open from 6am to 7pm)
Before the polls open: Snow will break out well west of town in the pre-dawn hours (50%) and attempt to creep into the closer suburbs (30%). Areas like Winchester, Purcellville and Leesburg may see a dusting of snow, while closer in suburbs will just see some light snow or flurries. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s.
6am - noon: Other than a few flurries or patches of light snow, especially west of DC, it will just be cloudy and cold with temperatures rising into the upper 20s. This is the best time for suburban Virginia voters to go to the polls.
Noon - 7pm: Light sleet and freezing rain will begin during the mid to late afternoon (60%). Precipitation will be light, but surface temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Anything that falls will stick so some slick spots are definitely possible on sidewalks, bridges, overpasses, and less traveled streets, especially west of town where more significant icing is possible. Toward the end of this period temperatures will likely rise into the low to mid 30s and just plain rain will fall east of I-95. However, in western Fairfax, Loudoun, and points west temperatures are likely to remain at or below freezing until the polls close. As precipitation intensity increases, there could be some moderate icing problems in those areas that stay below 32.
After the polls close: Precipitation will become steadier and more widespread. While some isolated areas could stay below freezing with icing issues continuing, most everyone will be above freezing by late evening through midnight and just plain rain will fall as temperatures rise through the 30s overnight.
Keep reading for the forecast tomorrow through the weekend ...
TOMORROW
Rainy, milder. Mid to upper 40s then dropping. Rain will continue tomorrow, moderate at times. The track of the storm system will push plenty of milder air into the region and allow temperatures to rise well into the 40s. Eventually the storm will develop a coastal component and move rapidly off to our northeast. Rain should taper off by the late afternoon. However a brief period of non-accumulating light snow is possible after dark (20%) as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s. Overnight, cold air will make its presence felt again with lows in the low to mid 20s under gradually clearing skies.
Valentine's Day looks good for lovers with partly sunny skies and temperatures seasonably warm in the upper 40s. The weekend will start off benign with temperatures on Friday in the low 50s, but a frontal passage early Saturday will usher in some colder air just in time for another tricky storm system to affect us from the south on Saturday night and Sunday. It is too early to determine precipitation type so stay tuned. President's Day currently stands to be dry and cold with temperatures in the 30s.
By Matt Ross |
February 12, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
Previous: Alert: Potomac Primary Problematic Precipitation |
Next: Update: Spotty Snow Now, Patchy Ice Later
Posted by: weatherdudeVA | February 12, 2008 07:22 AM
1.5 apples is somewhere in between definitely having school and a chance at a delay or early dismissal. In other words, not that likely to happen. Today, an early dismissal is just a slim possibility if precip moves in early enough.
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 12, 2008 07:30 AM
well 1.5 apples beats no apples in the 07-08 winter rose-colored glasses...
Posted by: missy | February 12, 2008 07:40 AM
Thanks Jason. I'm not expecting to ever have another snow day/early dismissal again after keeping us in school all day through 5" of snow like they did last month. Like I've said before, just a dream.
Posted by: weatherdudeVA | February 12, 2008 07:49 AM
Any chance of cold air daming or surface temps not reaching the upper 30s to 40s today/tonight??? Please!
Posted by: Snowlover | February 12, 2008 08:02 AM
it's freezing out in capitol hill!!!
Posted by: madison | February 12, 2008 08:06 AM
Thanks for breaking down the forecast into the different areas (VA, Md, DC). Easier to understand that way.
Posted by: winchester | February 12, 2008 08:37 AM
when is the next chance of real sonw (3+ in.). weatherbug says 50% chance of snow in montgomery on sun. nite
Posted by: sam | February 12, 2008 08:46 AM
GFS shows coastal storm late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Any real chance it develops?
Posted by: HEELS | February 12, 2008 08:47 AM
HEELS and Sam: Slight chance of little snow Wed. night if coastal develops, but I'm not holding my breath. Sunday looks like a rain storm, but too far away to rule out any wintry precip.
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | February 12, 2008 08:55 AM
Latest GFS run shows eastern VA/DC in or close to blue shades in 48 hour. That's .5 precip. Looks cold enough to snow. Any thoughts Cap Team? Jim?
Posted by: chrisfromVA | February 12, 2008 08:56 AM
Vote early! And Often
Posted by: wiredog | February 12, 2008 09:17 AM
Star Tannery (Fred. Co. VA) getting hammered right now.
Posted by: winchester | February 12, 2008 10:04 AM
Question for the weather guys. Why do you guys seem to have a better handle on the weather than weather.com or some of the "expert" weather sites?
weather.com last night had 60% chance of snow after midnight and 100% chance of snow and then sleet from 7am until noon.
Posted by: Mark | February 12, 2008 10:09 AM
"I'm not expecting to ever have another snow day/early dismissal again after keeping us in school all day through 5" of snow like they did last month"
Posted by: weatherdudeVA
Awwww Weatherdude I feel so bad for you. I see that you managed to survive that massive five inches. In the real world people have to get up and go to work no matter what the weather. Get used to it.
Posted by: NTBOM | February 12, 2008 10:19 AM
Mark your first lesson in Weather 101. NEVER access weather.com. It is too generalized and is basically a site for know-nothings (no offense to you).
Posted by: JT | February 12, 2008 10:21 AM
Hey NTBOM - lighten up. You didn't look forward to "snow holidays" as a kid? Besides, I like it when the schools are closed - less traffic on the roads.
Posted by: Mark | February 12, 2008 10:33 AM
Just started seeing some flakes in Bethesda. It's almost sad how excited even a little bit of snow makes me!
I'm driving to Charlottesville around 5 pm to see the UVA/UNC game. Should I be worried about slick roads on the way?
Posted by: Jill | February 12, 2008 10:35 AM
A few flakes starting to fly downtown. Nice blob of green on the radar coming through, but looks like it will cut off within an hour or so.
Posted by: jmbethesda | February 12, 2008 10:39 AM
momentary flurries in alexandria
just momentary though
:(
Posted by: strangldangel | February 12, 2008 10:41 AM
A flurry moving through Gaithersburg. From the looks of radar, I don't believe it will last.
Posted by: Mark | February 12, 2008 10:42 AM
Mark -- Not that we would pretend to be right 100% of the time, but what you're noticing is mainly the difference between a largely (though maybe not totally) computer-generated forecast aimed at covering a broad area, and a team of actual humans who know the area and present the weather forecast in a format that allows for more detail (at least as much as the science will permit) -- both in terms of geography and time -- as well as communication of forecast uncertainty
Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | February 12, 2008 10:48 AM
DanceCast.
My primary question here (going back to practical matters following my recent post on science, religion and politics!): How will this evening's predicted rain impact on commuting to/from and attendance at tonight's Clarendon Ballroom swing dance?
Well, it looks as though most of my area precipitation will be liquid though it could be increasing in intensity/coverage throughout the evening. Windiness could be a factor in whether or not I go to this dance; also projected dance attendance. It's possible that some folks stuck in ice in outlying areas might not come to the dance. By the way I also have an Elks Lodge dance Sunday night and already the Weather Channel is threatening us with the possibility of "mixed" precipitation for that event!
Posted by: El Bombo | February 12, 2008 10:49 AM
flurries in bethesda
Posted by: sam | February 12, 2008 10:49 AM
BTW, the Mark who asked the question that was just answered was a different one than the one who posted the last two "Mark" comments - those were posted by me. I didn't catch that earlier. I will be Mark2 from now on. :^)
Posted by: Mark2 | February 12, 2008 10:59 AM
ooh, something popped up on radar over bowie with yellows in it! result? small to medium flakes falling beautifully outside. the juncos seem to appreciate eating from the little bit of accumulation on the deck (barely visible).
work has screeched to a halt so i can admire the fleeting bit of snow before it goes away...
Posted by: kate | February 12, 2008 10:59 AM
Flurries here in Arnold. Also just looked at the latest from the 12z GFS, can't be to unhappy with what its showing...throwing some moisture our way tomorrow night/Thursday morning. Maybe we could squeak out a little something..
Posted by: arnoldkh | February 12, 2008 11:01 AM
Jill -- You should encounter mostly light precipitation, with temperatures on the rise but likely still within a few degrees of freezing. So while there may be some slick spots especially on less traveled roads, the highways should be in pretty good shape. You should of course check the conditions and forecast before you head out. Have a great time at the game!
Posted by: Capital Weather Gang | February 12, 2008 11:04 AM
Thanks for the outlook for Charlottesville, CWG! And good work as always on keeping everybody informed.
Posted by: Jill | February 12, 2008 11:17 AM
Wow cap wx I am always surprised to see how accurate you are. Lo Co schools close 1 hour early holla Dr. Hatrick
Posted by: Joey DC | February 12, 2008 11:22 AM
Joey, why would you be surprised? They are always accurate and the best weather team in the region.
Posted by: Big Goob | February 12, 2008 11:26 AM
looks like most of the good stuff is staying well to the North and west of town....most of us will see very light intermittent snow/sleet/rain throughout the day with just cloudy the predominant weather type.....
Posted by: Matthew Ross, Capital Weather Gang | February 12, 2008 11:57 AM
NTBOM: Yeah, lighten up. Let me have a little more fun before I have to enter the workforce full of people with your view on things... :P
It sleeted a little bit here in Lake Ridge. Nothing to be impressed by though. Oh well.
Posted by: weatherdudeVA | February 12, 2008 02:39 PM
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I got up, looked out my window and saw nothing on the ground, and came to school without issue this morning, not even knowing that PWC had 1.5 apples. Darn. Maybe the "big one" earthquake will hit us and we'll get out of school early? Is that pushing it too far? I really want to go back to bed...LOL