Is there a weather-equivalent of an ombudsman? Should there be?

It seems like the boy who cried wolf kind of problem. When an event doesn't materialize people are less likely to trust future warnings. Its a balancing act. Frankly, it seems like the nature of the beast and meteorologist have a responsibility to inform people that each forecast is subject to change. The CapWx team does an great job or being honest with their confidence in forecasts and balancing risk vs. hype. My only suggestion would be to have some survey of how accurate different weather forecasting outlets preform.

I agree about Hype..It can break the trust barrier if things are hyped up early on then the track or forecast changes. Good article.

I am trying to not get over excited about this 3/4-3/5 event. I am noticing some very unusual patterns that havent taken place all winter with this 3/4 system. Why is there such a southen bend in the 850 mb line as the storm approaches..Its alomst like
its system is bending the line around. Can someone explain this? Its almost like the cold pocket follows the storm. This entire winter, storms have pushed out the cold air.

Here is a link I am looking at for the 12z:

180 Frame shows clold air being drawn in from the south: (WE are still warm)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06180.gif

192 Frame we are cold, at a point in time before is when the 850 mb line passes through and the changeover from rain to snow I would expect to occur:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif

Cap Team, I know you cannot post early hype on your daily articles with this 3/4 event. Can you answer my question about why cold air is wrapping around from the south as storm approaches. Thanks

Thank you for posting this. I hate it when people say that the meteorologists are overhyping everything and call them "liars." I've gotten into what amount to screaming matches with people over this subject, LOL!

Meteorologists are just the messengers. They have to tell you the what COULD happen and that you need to take action based on what COULD happen, so if the worst happens you'll be prepared.

It's the same logic on eating right and exercising and taking cholesterol meds. You want to PREVENT a heart attack by taking action on it. The doctors are giving you a warning that if you don't eat right and exercise, you COULD have a heart attack, so you want to prepare for the worst.

"At times, we have to forecast based on psychology as well as meteorology."

Less paternalism and less projection of one/s own fears is what/s needed.

Make the forecast and leave it go at that.

Good article and I completely understand and agree with the position you guys take in the forecast!

Augusta Jim: You have been quiet lately. Any thoughts on 3/4.

Thanks

Storm Chaser-- The cold air being drawn south is simply a result of the very strong counterclockwise circulation around the deep center of low pressure. If a deep low is moving from south to north, cold air can make the type of push you see in that model. It's the beginning of a cold occlusion which you can read about here.

In addition (according to the GFS forecast), it looks like the cold pool is being enhanced / advected further south with the development of a strong upstream (Rocky) anticyclone, which sets up a very strong northerly flow through the Great Plains and Central US. In addition, the Rockies themselves can enhance further by acting as a western barrier for the colder, more dense air.

It looks like the initial plunge of cold air is being initiated the co-location of the Rocky Mountain anticyclone and an Upper Great Lakes/Southern Canadian clipper system.

Couldn't the dangerous conditions have existed last week if none of the roads had been treated and every normal Friday morning car had been on the road? I did see ice coating everything in the morning, but the roads (in N. VA) were ok.

Also, pointed out before here, there are the complications of forecasting for a region that can have such diverse conditions (rain, snow, and ice across the same weather map). People tend to make overall weather judgements based on their own personal experience.

CWG:
With all the talk of computer models that pops up from time to time on these comments, it would be helpful if you could provide a primer on the GFS, UKMET and other models, explaining what sort of data goes into them, how the models are used and who is responsible for actually developing the models. The NWS seems to rely on the GFS a lot as its "go to" model. One question I have is when was the last time the GFS model was tweaked, or is it it constantly worked on? My apologies if this info is already available on the blog site, but I couldn't find it in the FAQ section.

Just a quick comment here...I hope this does not sound too much like self promotion, but I have just completed a book, that will be out by the end of March, called "How to Find a Good Weather Forecast"...it covers all of the stuff you have been discussing here: How forecasts are made...Who's really doing them...and of course,how you as a weather forecast consumer can find the best products.

My question to everyone out in Capital Weatherland is this: Would you attend a weather forecasting seminar? If we held a confrence that was open to the public on how weather forecasts are made by the pros...would you go? Just curious...keep up the great work guys!

Tony Pann
WUSA Weather

Tony,

Re: the forecasting seminar.

That's something I'd certainly be interested in. Hope you can make it happen.

For those asking about 3/4, the current NWS forecast for that date is a chance of showers and a high of 51. Though not an impossibility, things would certainly have to change a great deal for snow.

jmbethesda,

The GFS is in general the go to model for the NWS, since it has been developed, supported, and is run by employees of NWS. Additionally, it is in general available to forecasters much sooner than some of the global forecasts produced by other operational centers.

The model is constantly being worked on, tested, improved, etc. However, these changes are implemented into the operational suite on average about once a year. The last big change to the GFS occurred on 01 May 2007, including a new vertical coordinate, as well as a major upgrade to the Data Assimilation (i.e., the code responsible for creating the initial condition for each new numerical forecast).

There is another implementation scheduled for this spring, but we are waiting on central operations for the exact date.

There is a nice chart somewhere that presents information about how the operational global models differ. I'll see if I can find and post a link.

Tony,

I'd be interested in the seminar. I've been a fan since your Dayton days. I used to intern over at WKEF back in my college days.

Jamie

Tony-- Look forward to seeing your book. Keep us posted on the seminar.