I tell you what, Topper had an inkling this would happen last night on his 6pm slot. He made it clear that we could easily end up in the dry slot between the northern and southern systems - and he was essentially nowcasting since his assumptions were based off of the radar echoes over the Ohio Valley and Southeast and our ridiculously low dewpoints (some in the area were around zero). He DID NOT change his snow/ice forecast on his graphic. I think he had the right idea, but may have had cold feet. Here in the LoCo bootheel, its 33 and I'd give us a tenth of an inch of ice. Last week's event was significantly worse than this one, simply based on actual QPF. Topper - you shoulda jumped when your instincts told you!

Dulles-- the gap in precip was not only evident on the radar but also in the models. I think most mets were seeing it. While most mets overforecasted the snow, no one was ever calling for more than 1-3." And it's hard to downplay an ice scenario -- especially since just a little can cause a big impact and with the election night event fresh in our minds.

To carry over some discussion from the previous post, I don't understand this concern over "First!" and "Rain!" comments. They are quite harmless and I don't understand why they seem to bother some people so much. Greg's rain predictions are a kind of winter "tradition" at CapWeather and give me a chuckle, to be honest. I think people should lighten up, and let's stop talking about "banning" things like that. Last time I checked we still were supposed to have freedom of speech in this country. Unless Dick Cheney has issued some edict in the last few minutes that I'm unaware of...

@natsgreat
The concern with the comments is a concern with the signal to noise ratio. Those of us who've been on Slashdot from the beginning have seen what that leads to. I've seen some community type sites (kuro5hin, for example) get overrun with trolls, flamers, and other such internet troublemakers, to the point they became unusable, because they tolerated "FIRST POST" and other such idiocy. Sure, when CapWx was it's own blog it got less traffic (and was, therefore, less useful to the community) and could thus tolerate the FIRSTs and such.

And then there's the comment spam issue. So far The Post seems to be keeping it under control.

I suspect that the Post will eventually move to requiring that you have a user id and be logged in in order to post. Even then, some sort of moderation will probably be necessary.

The comments section on this site has gone down hill since it moved to the Post, IMO. There are fewer people with a genuine interest in the science of weather and a lot more teenagers looking to get a day off.

Thanks Jason! Topper's "body language" was shouting that this storm could definitely bust out in terms of actual liquid...all week long every met and CapWx was hinting that this was going to be funky storm. As far as I'm concerned, that totally verified! I had 6 inch icicles last week off my deck - today its more like 2 inches...but ice is ice - I'm not leaving the house aside from letting Dog ARC slip and slide around later...we lost power last week for four hours - I'll gladly accept my electricity.

fifth! lighten up gramps, science rocks. this is the only site I can turn to for fair and balanced weather reports. keep up the good work

I would agree with steve takoma park, that the comments on CapWx have gone downhill since the move. I think its just the general feel of the board now, there are not as many people interested in the weather for weather's sake, as there are people who are interested in how it will impact there life first hand(not that there is anything wrong with that, its very understandable). I feel as though there has been a loss of community on this board, which in a way is kind of a downer.
I think the CapWx team just a great job(the best in my opinion) with their forecast and the content of the site. Its just inevitable that when you move something into an area that gets more attention you will attract posters that have different interests and views on how weather is looked at. I hope people can realize that this board has a wide mix of people who come here to add to the discussion now, and knowing that they will their comments.

steve takoma park md:

I couldn't agree more. Well said.

I occasionally like to visit this blog via a mobile browser. Is it available on http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/? If not, other than subscribing to the RSS feed and reading the headlines via something like Google Reader, is there a way to access a more mobile friendly version?

Now 32.9 in NW Montgomery with a huge gap of nothing on the radar. The nearest precip appears to be near Lynchburg. I just took a little tour of upper county. The roads are fine, the fields have a slight tint of ice, and luckily the trees are not showing any sign of ice build up.

Everyone got burned last week with the freezing rain/ice that cause all the traffic problems so this time they over-reacted. This area is very difficult for weather predictions but the media people need to stop overhyping every "storm". But let's be thankful the roads aren't bad.

33 degrees in the LoCo bootheel and about two tenths of an inch of ice on sidewalks, trees, vegetation, etc...Roads seem passable. In contrast, last week it was probably closer to four tenths of an inch - this is a much better ice outcome so far today. I think this is going to be remembered as the long, slow winter of 07-08. March will have plenty of shots to see frozen precip.

Anyone know if the metro to greenbelt is running on schedule? The MARC train is 3 hours behind and I have to get to BWI. Any ideas?

At noon the temperature was 34 F in eastern Silver Spring.

Grumbling aside, I am now starting to rely on this blog for weather forecasts whereas before I relied on the National Weather Service site. The insights into the science behind the forecasts are interesting. Keep up the good work, guys!

I'm not sure why you people are upset and calling this a "bust". A major ice storm is awful, and usually means I lose power for 3-4 days.

I'd rather have a day of school than no power (and HEAT!) for extended periods of time. Keep things in focus.

I've come to terms that this may have been the last bit of winter weather we see.

I would like my thunderstorms now. I love those things. It's a lot of fun watching them on radar. And they really clear the air out after they roll through, too.

Thanks to you and others for constantly reminding everyone how awful an ice storm is.

Without your consistant comments on every post alerting us to the consequences of an ice storm - some of us on this board, that are actually able to control the weather, might actually cause one.

Keep up the good work!

Winter Weather Advisory in effect.

Winter Storm Warning cancelled.

Steve from Takoma Park -

I agree completely... I think I said that the very first day the site moved.

Questions like this are an example of what I mean:

Washington, D.C.: How is it that meteorologists are never held accountable for misleading the public? In any other profession one would lose their job or at the very least be reprimanded. I can't remember the last time any of you got the forecast correct.

Thanks for defending me Natsgreat!

Yea Jake you're right. Every forecast I saw said today would be sunny and warm. . .I assume that's what you mean.

Given the challenge the forecasts in general were darn good. Less snow and ice than NWS "Warning" criteria but timing and precip type of event was correct. Imagine what forecast of this event would have been 30-40 years ago.