"snow sliding north" - we just can't get a good snowstorm this season can we???

Will there be enough snow to sled in? 2 in. in moco?

Promise me we'll get snow! at least an inch!

If you're against this weather, blame Cheney. If it makes you feel good, Obama is responsible.

"Snow sliding north" is an understatement. Check any other radar site and you will see the vast bulk of the snow passing southwest to northeast through eastern West Virginia, Ohio, parts west.

Some may recall that I began giving caveats regarding this potential a couple days ago, statements like "snowlovers may be disappointed", this morning, "over hyped storm".

A wise man once said,"when in drought ,leave it out".

Several parameters simply have not supported this system for at least 24 hrs.

Another wise man once said, "it ain't over till it's over"

There are some indications of an enhancement of precip. tomorrow, but latest radar returns clearly indicate the "split" is in place for most of the night, but light spotty precip. may still occur later. The radar returns are truly classic. A demarcation this sharp is not often witnessed with a split flow.

Talk about a snow curse...HAHAHA. Moisture to the south and north and our entire area is in a HUGE dry slot. If that holds up, we could end up seeing next to nothing.

Yikes - and I let the kids slide on their homework in anticipation of a snowday... I'd better make them get to it.

Bob Ryan just said at most an inch of snow in the metro area, and not starting at least until sunrise, followed by .10 of freezing rain. That sounds much better than earlier forecasts...

JT -- Generally speaking (not necessarily talking about this particular storm), when looking at radar, what you see is not always all of what you're going to get. Precipitation doesn't always have to come from somewhere upstream. It can develop right overhead.

if its sliding north, does that mean no snow.

It seems to me the southern half of the precipitation will still hit the DC area, and especially any are north of it.

I still have trouble trusting either the radar or the models. Yes, there's a formidable dry slot. Yes, neither the GFS or the NAM has us getting any precip until noon Friday. However, as I see it, the northern band is close enough to at least scrape us and deliver some accumulation. Additionally, the dry slot might collapse before it reaches our area and fill with snow--though this opinion of mine is entirely unbased.

We still have a good deal of time before the system fully reaches us. Don't give up hope prematurely!

To add to Augusta Jim's quote- "It ain't over 'till the fat lady sings'. I just had two slices of pizza, and I'm warming up my vocal chords...

TJ,

WHERE IS YOUR SNOW SPIRIT?

Augusta Jim: But we'll still see ice tomorrow right? The split won't last THAT long will it?

Come on people. I'm all for snow, but let's be real. You can still get a general feel for what's going on or with what's going to happen with radar. The later this thing starts the worse are the chances for snow. Isn't this what always happens here? They always forecast it starting earlier than it actually does. Then when it does finally start, it's too little too late. The storm pushes off and gets cranked up too far north.

Not gonna happen this winter. Where's the ever optimistic VaTechBob?..HAHA.

I saw this coming earlier this afternoon. We will be right in the middle of both systems. Oh well, guess we are off to school/work tomorrow. Perhaps next week??

Looks like something is coming: http://www.wjla.com/weather/weatherloader.html?page=doppler

covered in heavy virga right now.

I'm thinking that the "Winter Storm Warning" was really jumping the gun.

What about the ice tomorrow?

That definitely still warrants a Winter Storm Warning!!

We just heard on Channel 9 that we should receive 1-2 inches before morning. Then the ice comes. Sounds like school will be out.

"Precipitation doesn't always have to come from somewhere upstream. It can develop right overhead"

Dan I hope you are right but I correctly forecasted the non-event yesterday for northwest Montgomery by occasionaly glancing at the radar starting at about 9am.

NO! It is the end!... on a side note, why can't we get a snowstorm like the one in '96? That would be great!

where do you guys get the models?

I don't care what anybody says! this storm is going to be a major bust! The NWS should really start by taking down the WSW.
it was lookin like 100% chance of no school but now we'll be lucky to see a 2 hour delay lol

wtf is wrong with you people none of you know anything about the weather stopnocasting

Confidence levels of no school for moco tomorrow? I'm going to the bar... praying we don't have school.

JJ: Agreed!!

Models are from South Beach...

But seriously, models are from different sources. I am going to guess the most used site by visitors to this blog is http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/. There are other sites but this is the one with the easiest graphics.

hey JJ! lets not get to mad on here lol
but why do you think its going to be anything around here?? LOOK AT THE RADAR!!
It was over before it even started lol. The local weather men are now hinting at it. So people please let this winter go!! I am tired of being disapointed. so lets just hope this summer isnt dry like last.

Yah, sorry its just that alot of people on here are saying its over when weather proffesionals aren't 1 inch of snow, which is what they said is really not down that much from the 1-2 they said previously.

Lots of "wishcasting" here at Capital Weather and very little forecasting, at least from the peanut gallery.

The whole winter has been a bust. We are such suckers to believe something will come from this.

Dry slot from Hades will probably hang in there throughout.

I just get the feeling it's all been one big ...tease.

what are all of you talking about.. in case you haven't noticed snow is already moving in and the rest of the precip is moving east so stop saying it wont snow!!!

To everyone saying this was dead before it started:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

It's filling in.

ATTENTION SNOWLOVERS !!!!
It has been snowing at my place for 30 minutes. The pavement in my driveway is turning WHITE!!

27 degrees

Oops, hit post to fast, lol.

That's the infrared radar. The big clouds from the storm are coming in now.

I meant infrared satellite. Ugh I need sleep or something.

I meant infrared satellite. Ugh I need sleep or something.

Can't wait till the heavy virga hits Centreville.

It's going to be alot of fun.

I meant infrared satellite. Ugh I need sleep or something.

Its amazing how the weather can change in a matter of hours. Unfortunately our two ingredients for snow have been hard to piece together this winter. Cold + mositure. We either get mositure or cold at different times. I do believe it is because we are in a La Nina cycle this winter,... so nobody move to the poles quite yet or shoot out your computers screens....:)'

Next season, we will see normal winter cycle return.

So snowlovers, bite the bullet this winter...March still looks to be colder then average with the NAO trending negative. I woldn't close the books on a "late" season snowfall. GFS shows several shots of arctic air plowing south every couple days.. 3/6 apeears to look interesting again.

All TV casters are leaning towards this only being little more than a nuisance and not the storm forecasted only a few hours ago.

This thing wasn't forecast to start until Midnight, and we are already calling it a bust based on the radar? I am confused.

Augusta JIM:

Good News, Where do you live?

Ivan is a card-carrying member of the VATechBob club....

Haha the moisture is definitely not filling in.

If anything, the gap is just getting bigger and bigger as it gets closer to us.

It's just hard to me to see how moisture can magically fill in without anything else around it.

So the NWS has put us under a winter storm warning for no reason, because you know more then them.. yah...

skinsfn:
I live about 100 miles wsw of D.C.

The snow has now tapered off to flurries.

The "light spotty precip." has occurred, but I will post if it fires up again.

BUST! HAHAHAHA

Augusta Jim: Where are you that you already have snow on your driveway?? Or were you just pulling my leg???

To Me,

Sometimes I think that I do. It's happened many, many times before. Remember the "Ice Storm" last week where 1/4 inch of ice was expected. Oh, OK...

Plus, all those at the NWS probably don't have the same raw experience living in this wretched winter area as we do. =P

Not saying that I would have liked a 1/4 inch of ice, but still...

Guilty of forecasting the last storm. If it weren't for getting caught on the ice storm last week, they never would have over hyped this one.

There seem to be two unique storms we are following. One, the snow from the west - the northern jet stream. The other rain/ice storm is from the south, the southern jet stream. In a perfect storm, these two streams phase and we get a lot of energy. The cold air from the north is strong enough to keep the precipitaion all frozen and the enrgy from the south stays just enough south and east to keep the warm air from infiltrating our area. WHAM. Lots of snow!
Unfortunately, todays storm is looking more and more like a southern storm with just enough cold air to give us travelling problems. The northern portion of this system appears to be moving mostly north of the immediate metro area. What does this mean? Light precipitaion in the form of snow between now and Friday daybreak. After that we will probably see a lull before the southern portion of this scenario gets cranking up. By mid morning we will start to see the heavier frozen precipitaion move in.
Bottom line: light snow accumilations before we see some moderate ice accumilations.
Of course, I am predicting the future and we know hoe much fun that can be!
Stay tuned to the experts at CAPWX.com

It looks like we will catch the southern edge of the snow for a dusting to about 1/2 inch and catch the northern edget now and again of the low tomorrow giving us spotty freezig drizzle. Pretty much a non event IMHO

Just for the records all....I am not posting as "skins fan" That is another poster.

To "skins fan": GO SKINS!!2008

I guess, but at this point I still think well see whats forecasted, but obviously i dont know, but its definantly to early to label this a bust

Is there a chance that the southern system can bring us snow tomorrow as it gets cranked up. instead of just plan old ice/rain...Would there be more cooling then anticipated tonight as we are dry slotted.

Wow, what a surprise, Hampshire County WV schools already closed. LOL

weatherdudeVA,

HAHAHA. WV, Wild and Wonderful.

Looks like another dry slot coming right at us. Why do we even bother getting so excited? More importantly, should I still drink that 6-pack I bought in the hopes that the feds will close tomorrow?

If I'm trying to get back to D.C. from out of town (flying into BWI), am I better off sticking to the late-ish flight I'm on, which lands at 1:15 a.m., or trying to get on an earlier one? I'm a little worried about getting from the airport to the District if it's been icing for hours, but also sort of worried about flights getting canceled. Any advice welcome. Thanks.

Virginia is for Moses Effect Lovers, apparently.

;)

I'm still holding out hope. Of course, the NWS is being unusually quiet. I'm waiting for an update or a discussion or something.

This will be a TOTAL bust. You know it, I know it, the American People know it. Nevertheless, PW County Schools will close. They always do.

Camp Fredericksburg...wow, where have you been this year? We've closed once this year. Back when we had 5" of snow they kept us in school all day. When there was snow/ice on the roads the next morning, they made us go to school on a delay, and after the delay was over it was still in the 20s.

Whoever is in charge of closing schools in PWC is a hard butt when it comes to snow days this year. I'm just hoping that they close us tomorrow based on any snow that falls tonight plus the ice threat tomorrow.

Wow, Sterling's ears must have been ringing. They updated the forecast :)

Tonight: Periods of snow and sleet, mainly after midnight. Low around 24. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Operative words: MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT

Weather in the 21st Century: I've noticed a trend: more hype, more fluff, more hysteria. Not at Capitol Weather (this is a serious, sober site), but in the general culture. Armed with Doppler and email alerts sent to Blackberries, weather-talk an echo-chamber. More and more people talk about it, and, human nature dictates the more talk, the more inaccuracy and dooms-daying. "Possible ice" morphs to "OMG!!!!"

Take a step back. Pledge to yourself not to constantly refresh your Doppler website. Go outside and breath deeply. Buy some LL Bean boots and just chill out. Do you think the Founding Fathers (and Mothers) in Virginia freaked as much as we do about storms??

I think im gonna have to be a little optimistic here, putting my butt on the line. but im gonna have to say that from my observations of the radars and models it seems as though the gap will fill in, and were not gonna get shafted. just trying to keep the hope up here, what do you guys think CWG

peachy, but what about tomorrow?

weatherdudeVA - I am basing my prediction on last year, when they closed at the drop of a hat. I think they closed for an entire WEEK last year. Maybe they learned their lesson?

Mike from the Blue Ridge, it's great to see you too!

It's not going to do a damn thing because I'm staying late at work and taking stuff home with me. I single handedly have ruined several storms that way. Please don't hate me.

Is the southern storm expected to track north to our area?

Cause if it does... lots of snow/ice from that storm!

Ana B
Fear not, my wife just made the 2.5 hour round trip leesburg to dc to work to get her computer so she could telework tomorrow. I think she is the one to blame.
:)

Camp Fredericksburg: Yes, we closed 7 or 8 times last year. We closed 4 out of 5 days when we had the 3" sleet storm. Mainly because they didn't clear it fast enough because it froze solid.

They'll learn their lesson again when more people sue. A few weeks back, sorry to beat an old storm to death here, but when we had the 5", the next morning a bus driver slipped and broke her elbow. Numerous students also slipped and injured themselves. After enough lawsuits I think they'll go back to the drop of a hat. Doesn't matter anyway, next year is my last year, then I'm going to college in one of the snowiest places ever: Vermont
HA HA!

THE SNOW IS ON

posted on weather underground at 8:23pm:

Light snow has developed over northern portions of Frederick...Carroll...Baltimore and Harford counties. Snowfall amounts will generally be light and average less than half an inch through midnight. Light snow will spread southward over the remainder of the counties...into the city of Baltimore and the northern suburbs of Washington DC through the remainder of the overnight hours.

Hey CWG,
The southern storm appears to be moving out to sea on radar, but do you think it will change direction?

This is maddening: http://www.wjla.com/weather/weatherloader.html?page=doppler

weatherdudeVA - Got it. Part of the problem is that PW Cty is too big. The ice in the eastern part is gone while the West is still ice-bound.

Marlee,

That sounds rather discouraging no?

if you look at the radar you can see that the gap is already closing between the two storm systems, snow if filling in ahead of DC and the storms are starting to look as though they are one. dont lose hope yet!

Do you mean that it is maddening that most of that is evaporating before it reaches us?

What is everyone getting so uptight about? At this point i am just gonna sit back and see what happens. Enjoy it for what its worth, no matter what we end up getting. :)

Peter of Bethesda, as I've said since the beginning: this will be the Mother of All Busts.

hey weatherdudeVA, the NWS is being quite b/c they dont no wether to downgrade the WSW or what! There prolly thinking how could we have busted this forcast so bad hahaha! What i am getting at is there will be school tomorrow. GIVE IT UP PEOPLE!! its not happening lol.

"All TV casters are leaning towards this only being little more than a nuisance and not the storm forecasted only a few hours ago."

Then why in the h*ll has the Weather Service changed its forecast to mixed snow and sleet *tonight* and all freezing rain tomorrow and tomorrow night??

Grumble ...

Period: It's maddening that there is a giant circle around DC area of nothingness.

Robert Jewell: That's not "lol" so stop saying that.

Gotta agree with Murre, they all know more then anyone talking on here

.NOW...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
FREDERICK...CARROLL...BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND AVERAGE LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES...INTO THE CITY OF BALTIMORE AND THE
NORTHERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Seems about like what they forecasted before to me...

hey Peter [Bethesda] i am lol b/c it just so funny how people keep trying to get winter weather in here and its not happening!!!! Hasent all year and its not now. lets not pick a fight on here b/c thats stupid. I can say what i want so please dont tell me what to do.

thanks.

This board is quite negative tonight. This board was always a place where everyone could get together and we could track these storms, and share our opinions on what we all thought could/would happen. I think everyone should relax a little, let people voice their opinions about the weather...everyone has a right to their opinion. Also, in regards to NWS not saying much right now, perhaps they're waiting this out to see what happens? It's still early, and that low to our south is definitely interesting to look at, just have to see what happens.

i agree jj, seems to be going as scheduled

I dont get it!

On the radar there is blue over us but nothing is coming down. I say 1.5 inches tonight of snow and quarter inch of ice on top. SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW!!!!!!! please?

Sorry Robert, I thought you were laughing at the fact that we are having school tomorrow. As you can see, I'm stewing over here. :-(

Sorry, everyone. Feel bad. :-(

Peter [Bethesda],

I do.

DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-VAZ027>031-040>042-051>054-WVZ055-501-
502-221000-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WS.W.0003.080222T0200Z-080223T0300Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-
CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...BAYARD...PETERSBURG
851 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY.

A STORM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ICING...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH... IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL
PROBLEMS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
THROUGH THIS EVENT.

NWS update..everything going as forecasted..they even up the total snow accumulation for tonight...interesting

Everyone Relax. Let eachother say what they are going to say. I say 1.5 - 2 inches. Dont argue because it's just an opinion because I LOVE SNOW. Sorry for the long explanation but it will pay off if you use it. AM I RIGHT?

d, it's called virga, meaning it's snowing (or raining) at the upper levels but the air is too dry at the surface and the water evaporates. It looks like snow on the radar. As the atmosphere gets juicier then the snow falls.

I suggest doing your homework, after all, I'm ruining the storm, remember :-)

Ahhh, Lost is on. Now I am happy. Be back during commercials. ;-)

Now have light snow here in Haymarket

Thx Ana B. But MOCO has to close. What is the point of having a 2 hr. delay and having an early relase. They are alot smarter than that. JUST AN OPINION THOUGH ANA B. Thx for the advice though. :)

Have no snow here in Arlington. =))

Peter [Bethesda] its alright but yeah i live in culpeper and if there nothing falling by morning i really dont see them closesing IMO. What do you think?

Doug Hill aptly termed this a "weather adventure" the other night!

What happened to everyone? No posts in 2.5 hours?

I'm going to bed and I'll wake up to whatever. Goodnight.

Periods of snow and sleet, mainly after midnight. Low around 24. Southeast wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

---------------------

wow, 1-2 inhces of sleet! Then it says tomorrow is still .1-.3 inches of ice. (for Bethesda)

it all depends on whether that dang southern storm gets up here!

dont give up people. the radar is starting to fill in. forecast is the same as before.

At school today, everyone was asking me if we'll have school or not tomorrow and what will happen. I've pretty much kept quiet on saying that we'll probably have off (or not) because that's usually the death knell for snow days around here too...me calling it before the first flake flies.

Funny how everyone seems to think that they are the single cause for the death of a snowstorm. But, the NWS has spoken, and it seems that everything is on track. Yay!

Weatherdude said "Camp Fredericksburg...wow, where have you been this year? We've closed once this year. Back when we had 5" of snow they kept us in school all day. When there was snow/ice on the roads the next morning, they made us go to school on a delay, and after the delay was over it was still in the 20s"

My God are you going to talk about that all winter and into the spring? Get over it kid. Nothing happened. No school buses went over cliffs. Nobody died. You are going to be a great sucess in your future job at the 7-11

Yeesh, what's with all the flaming? Can't we be one big happy family hoping for the best?

Strike my last comment, my page wasn't loading.

I am glad to say that I am not a storm killer. I have no such powers.

That said, if I watch the Redskins, they lose. It's wretched. Like a bad punishment from a Greek myth.

where are the ominous forecasters of the storms on CW? snowy hill and something...you know, the commentary, im missing it!!!

OMG people....All the negative people need to seriously chill out....We have barely even begun and people are freaking out because they don't have two inches of snow. Relax and let the storm take its course. Remember what happened last week. The cold air is in place and it will be hard to move it out. The so called "experts" blew that storm badly and I think we all will get the school closings we are hopng for!

The following stations have reported light snow since 9:00:
Frederick
Hagerstown
Winchester

This website isn't that useful. I can get what I need from NWS and wunderground, and it's more accurate. notice I did not say "the weather channel." they're even worse.

It's not a matter of one storm simply moving into our region. Precipitation isn't advected around by the wind, it develops as a consequence of complicated interactions.

The warm air advection and subsequent isentropic lift hasn't even begun to kick in yet...so don't give up on the storm just yet. There is already evidence that the atmosphere is moistening, and you can't base an entire forecast (for anything beyond a couple hours) on radar alone. Patience people...

Now having said that, this is looking like it's shaping up to be a nasty ice event, so sorry snow lovers. It looks like the surface cold air is in place nicely, but the mid and upper level forecast profiles look to support all rain....meaning this will turn into a frza event (and travel nightmare).

Read the latest NWS forecast discussion if interested:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Also, some of the 00z model run output is trickling it. Makes me glad i'm in research and not operational forecasting :)

OK so what if we do happen to get an inch of snow and the forecasters are right? SO WHAT! What's an inch of snow? Is that what everybody is getting excited about? If there's no possibility that it could do a 180 and suprise everybody with a big storm, there's no point to all the hype. This storm will be a nothing for us.

Excuse me, maybe we got freezing rain...yea that's a lot of fun.

I keep referring to that because there was a HUGE disconnect with the school system and what was going on. Just hoping they don't make the same mistake. Bite my head off why don't you. BTW - At least I would make sure the coffee was fresh every day... ;)

That's the last I'm going to say about the storm last month, okay?

I agree with Jim in Annapolis on all of the negative posting. I will not respond negatively to anyone else's post, whether it be "RAIN!" or "You're going to school kid" or "Enjoy working at 7-11."

Deep breaths...lol

TJ: Unless the ice comes, than it will be something for us.

Posted 9:03pm:

Light to moderate snow has begun to develop over the suburbs of Washington DC and the city of Baltimore. Through midnight...the heaviest snowfall is expected along the Maryland and Pennsylvania border...with amounts of up to one inch. Elsewhere...snowfall amounts between one quarter and one half of an inch area possible.

Had a period of sleet out here.
Otherwise... I'm in the hole now.

I take the blame for the negative responses to "RAIN!" and "You're going to school kid".

I hate negative responses and then I did it myself! Sorry, again! :-X

Light snow/sleet in Lake Ridge. Sidewalk has dusting on it, strangely enough neither the grass nor mulch has anything new on it. Hmmm

To confirm - Light snow in Lake Ridge - sticking.

I believe it is sleeting outside right now. LOL.

Would CWG consider making different threads for different topics? The quality of the comments section has unfortunately been sacrificed in the move to WaPo, but if people would post under appropriate thread topics, we could have a "school cast" thread, a "when is it going to snow on my street" thread, a "should I cancel my flight" thread, and then maybe we can have the real weather thread where we discuss the weather and possible scenarios. Oh and I guess we need a "haters" thread, where people like myself can bash other people for hating rather than talking about weather. =-)

good idea

Snow is falling near Dulles and sticking to my car.

Everyone put on those red ruby slippers and say ..."There has to be snow, there has to be snow." :)

Just FYI ...we were never getting the southern storm ...that is going off the coast on N. Carolina. What ever we get is still developing....let's just hope we get something. Then I am ready for spring. :)

Tonight: Periods of snow and sleet, mainly after midnight. Low around 27. Southeast wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday: Periods of freezing rain. High near 31. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Periods of rain or freezing rain before 10pm, then occasional drizzle or freezing drizzle. Low around 31. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. North wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

My kids all went to bed with their pj's on inside out, after flushing ice cubes down the toilet. If that doesn't reverse the "no snow" curse caused by grownups bringing work home, I don't know what will!!!

all of the precipitation was always supposed to come from the southern storm...

J In A,

I can see Dulles from my window, and I'm getting nada. Are you on the west side of Dulles?

This is ridiculous; I've had it with this winter, and last winter wasn't good either. Next year we better get some more, or I'm moving out. But still, keep the faith everyone!

"Enjoy the weather, its the only weather ya got"
-JB, met @ accuweather

learn to deal with it. though i cope better when the ground is white or frozen.
goodnight

Ivan, I am SW of Dulles. Still snowing..it's light but it's sticking...I'm keeping my fingers crossed!!

I think ice would be nice. 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Let 'er rip, actually. Just cause its something interesting happening, that's all. A diversion, if you will.

snowing in chantilly, virginia and sticking to cars/driveways. this comes 2+ hours before midnight, when the snow was supposed to start. i simply don't understand why people started panicking six hours before it was supposed to snow. we're actually ahead of schedule people!

IAD has been deicing aircraft since 8pm

Light snow began at National at 9:51.

Snow has tapered to a few flurries in Lake Ridge. A dusting out of 10 minutes of light snow. I can't wait for the "big stuff" (compared to that 10 minute snow shower, lol). I'm going to bed, so I guess I have to wait to see what the morning brings :)

Snowing lightly here in Loudoun. Radar picture still looking not great, hopefully precip develops more as the low(s) move more to the east. Looking foreward to your next update, CWG.

looks to be filling in a bit in central and southern virginia as precip moves north and east. remember, nws has forcasted for snow to start at MIDNIGHT, not 6,7,8,9,10 or 11 pm. anything we get before then will be spotty and light, and that's exactly what we're seeing right now. keep hope guys.

I'm right in Leesburg and there hasn't been a single flake yet.

Jonathan,

Eyeball the regional radar. Without some sig. fill-in, we are going to be slotted out for a good chunk of the night.

Steady snow in Potomac (my 9 year old came down from bed to inform me).

at 10:13 light snow and a little sleet is falling her in Potomac

Snowing in Bethesda. :)

Nothing in Arlington still.

There will be no filling in. Just take a gander. (and yes I am aware that I know not a thing about weather forecasting, but I'm not blind!)

it's a little weird cuz you can hear the sleet but you can see the snow

Light ( I mean very light) snow in Gaithersburg - 28 deg, and 31% humidity.

Keep the faith folks, and together we will have snow we can believe in! Though I haven't seen anything yet in Alexandria. :(

GED,

no doubt, the radar is a bit troubling for our snow prospects. but i think if we give mother nature a few hours things will start to fill in. if you take a look at nws's hour-by-hour forecast, they expect snow showers to start at midnight and not even pick up until 3 or 4 am. i've seen snow showers at my house in chantilly for the past half hour and it kind of surprised me. in nws we trust, it will start filling in!

Just saw about 30 seconds of v. light flurries (Bloomingdale, DC)... hopefully just a little smattering of hope before the main(ish) event.

skins fan- noticed that too!

Courtesy of Accuweather...

"Cold with snow, 1-2", turning to ice late; roads will be snow-packed and slippery."

Where do they get their stuff? =P

accuweather doesn't have the resources or man-power that nws has, and it shows. they love to see lots of snow and their forecasts reflect it. always subtract a little bit of what accuweather says, they're winter weather sensationalists.

People bemoaning this or other winters - I know I keep saying this, but expecting snow around here is like expecting to win the lottery. This just isn't a snowy area. If you love this stuff THAT MUCH, you really should consider moving to New England or the Upper Midwest, where snow is expected.

Wait. Is cyclogenesis expected to occur sometime tomorrow? I don't think so (according to models).

computer models

I agree with some of the people that this comment section is a bit cumbersome....I am not sure there is any immediate solution for that....For the most part answers to your questions can be found in the body of the post which will again be updated with a new post around 11.....This is a tricky forecast and we have been forthright about that...It really isnt possible to give backyard forecasts...the best we can do is broadbrush and highlight the possibilities....Check back in around 11 for a new post with updated team thoughts

Nothing going on here (yet), just NW of the Rt 7/Rt 28 interchange. Was going to flip my car's windshield wipers up earlier and didn't, decided to tempt fate; that means there will definitely be ice or snow to deal with tomorrow morning! ;-)

It's been lightly snowing here in Alexandria (Carlyle area) for about 20 min or so....

The thunderstorms down south (FL) are inhibiting the flow of moisture to the north.

I actually like the fact that the discussion is wide-ranging and meandering, it's kind of charming. There's a diversity of weather sophistication and views all linked together by interest (love or hate) in winter weather.

Hampshire Co Schools - WV - Closed
Hardy Co Schools - WV - Closed
Mineral Co Schools - WV - Closed

Of course... ;-)

Make that light sleet here in G'burg - no evidence on the ground yet.

No sense in wishing....look at the facts. There is a state-sized dry slot coming thru. That shouldn't even be called a dry slot.

JT -- As I said, not necessarily talking about this particular storm. Just something to remember generally speaking when looking at radar. We use a combination of radar and models to predict progression and development of precipitation.

I guess its possible that the energy diving down form the great lakes could join up with some of the moisture hanging back in AL/MS/TN and create a pretty good coastal later tomorrow. Maybe. That's not really the forecast, though.

Light snow in Owings Mills/West Baltimore. There better not be school tomorrow because my bedtime is 9 and I'm still up and NOT planning for tomrrow...

Still nothing in Springfield, VA, and I'm in the same boat as Kelsi - if I can't work from home I'm gonna be real grumpy if I stay up much longer...

Kelsi,

Wow. What time do you have to get up each morning?

In hindsight, not doing HW seems like a mistake.

It's really hard to shut everything down with 2 inches of snow. Then again, it is DC, but I have a hard time seeing all schools closing down for the day, and I have a really hard time believing the federal government will close tomorrow if its just 2 inches and a few slick spots.

Should be interesting though.

Kyle Osborne (news channel 8) says that we WILL get freezing rain from the southern storm tomorrow. he seems pretty confident...

Weatheruser -- We'd love to hear your suggestions for how to make the site more useful for you (I'm being serious, not sarcastic). Our goal is to be the No. 1 source for DC area weather information provided by a team of local forecasters. So please let us know what we can do to reach that goal.

Sue Palka calling this a storm with a "significant impact" but not a "major event".

Says it will be a tough call for schools as there's not gonna be a whole lot going on around 5am. Maybe an inch of snow at that point, but she didn't sound that confident of even that at that time of day. Sounding like whatever we're gonna get will come later in the morning.

Period -

sadly, I get up at 6 am, but I have a baby who nurses a lot at night, so I don't get much sleep... I used to go to bed at 7:30 when I worked in MoCo - had to wake up at 4:30 ick.

Most of my kids think there will be a snow day tomorrow. I work at an alternative school, so if there is school most of them won't show up, but I'll still have to be there!

Steady flurries here in Owings Mills, with a very fine layer of snow sticking where there isn't still an inch from yesterday!

A five day forecast on the home page would be nice

NBC 4 just said there's a 50% chance of an icy rush hour tomorrow morning, and yet a 90% chance of school cancellations. So, there's a 50% chance I'll regret staying up 'til 11 to hear that. Safe travels for everyone who absolutely has to be on the roads tomorrow, and for everyone else who doesn't have to, be smart!

Yeah seems really depressing. Maybe the schools will have mercy on us and be nice to us for once this year.

Heard the same as Mark. Bob Ryan says the timeline is changing. His update coming later.

Is it just me or do people here seem overly fixated on snow and not concentrating on the ice?

Period: Don't worry. The weathermen/woman seem confident ice will be here tomorrow. that would def. mean no school.

For those of you who want to be encouraged by the radar trends, check out the NWS Sterling Composite Reflectivity Radar loop at http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=LWX&loop=yes
This image has been doing a better job during the last hour of indicating the snow I've been watching fall outside my window near Logan Circle.

Both Bob and Doug seem to have realized that there's not much precip around us so most of this event is going to happen after sunrise.

think sue palka does have a handle on this, not enuf going on at 5 to really call but big bets on fauquier canceling. others, maybe not so much! It's so dry what's aloft is barely making it down .... periods of sleet since 9 and now .... nuthin ... god i hate trying to calm the what if there's no snow day ... but if the ice is coming, i'm all for a conservative call. the only hope is howard b's earlier predicition .... it's gonna come in waves, and we've had plenty of time to prepare...

I'm really counting on the "ice factor" to keep us out.

Let's face it--Bob probably has it right. Not getting much of anything, just some light ice over to rain.

Anyone else "hanging on" for the 11 o'clock update - did I miss it?

Haha, I did. I guess I'm more tired than I thought...

tlRRjx U cool ))