okay. so i asked this a few days ago and i guess now's the time to ask again. what about my flight to newark new yersey at 6:59am out of national. (and if anyone here knows, my 9:30 transfer out of newark to a much warmer point south of the US)?
am i screwed?

Come on 3 day weekend!!!

Can anyone comment on the impact (or lack thereof) of virga tonight? i know exceedlingly dry air has had an effect on the timing of the onset of precip in recent storms. is it possible that we'll wake up to very little accum as a result of this?

Predictiom: 2.25 inches. Schol tomorrow for Fairfax County: nope.

(I'm putting it all on the line!)

so what's the apple rating for the storm tonight?

me:

From the post...

"Next update will be in this afternoon's CommuteCast. We plan an updated accumulation map, timeline and Schoolcast this evening."

Henry's video blog over on Accuweather is very good this am.

COME ON SNOW, DO YOUR WORST

Right. Staying home from work tomorrow. Thank $Deity for telecommuting.

I think you have a snow day ahead of you tomorrow Ned. Shovel early and often - when that slop falls on top of the bit of snow, it will be very heavy! I remember shoveling all of the sleet last year...I'd rather have 10 inches of snow than to deal with that junk on my driveway.

Wow, better check with the Super and see if we get tomorrow off. Thx.....

Its hard to believe were not going to get more snow. It is cold out today. I just got back from morning run. Tonight, temps will drop and hopefully the cold air will be hard to displace.

Augusta Jim: Does your answer to my last question still stand with the new 12z out. Can the possibility of phasing still occur intensifying the storm, brining us a snowier scenerio? Thanks

THIS is the kind of forecast I have wanted to see more of this winter. THANK YOU!!!!

I have been secretly doubting this storm and telling myself "They'll change it to all rain next update." But it didn't happen - still snow/ice. YES!!!!!!!!

Virga: You bring up a very good point about...yourself ;). It seems that every storm we have has its accumulations cut down quite a bit by virga. What are the chances of that (like virga asked)?

Sounds like I'll be taking a personal day tomorrow....

Darn it! I still have ice on my car from yesterday's dusting. Well, I'm going to shut off my cell phone alarm, and I guess I'll hit the 7-11 for some low-fat popcorn, ice cream and M&Ms so that I'll have some junk to consume while raiding the Comcast on Demand free movie library.

And okay, I'll stop by the grocery store to pick up a few fruits, veggies and canned lentil soup, and I'll work out in between movies, so that I don't develop any more winter bulk.

This is an interesting storm because again the models are pretty useless as to surface temperatures. As far as the upper levels which are more important re: precipitation type, the models are definitely better. Nevertheless, we have had several instances over the last few winters where it stayed snow much longer than the models suggested. I think it is pretty clear that everybody will changeover to sleet/freezing rain, but the element of surprise is always still at play.

The heck with all. Is or is not the Federal Government going to be open on Friday????

If you stay home, then it's closed as far as you're concerned, mart.

Mart-- Best guess is Fed Gov will be open...maybe with an unscheduled leave policy

Jeff - sorry holmes, but I think that flight will be delayed if not cancelled.

Mart -- Best Guess is Fed Gov and all area schools will be CLOSED tomorrow except for emergency workers. With snow already on the ground by early AM and sticking on roads immediately with very cold temperatures and the high possibility of conditions getting more dangerous throughout the day with ICE (freezing rain, that I think will be HEAVY at times). Plus, the recent memory of what happened on primary night; everything will be shut down tomorrow. This won't be a major snow event, but this will be a major storm. I realize it is very rare for the FED to close except for emergency personnel, but they would be foolish not to; there is just no fooling around with ICE.

I work for the Gov't... My entire team is going to be tele-working tomorrow, along with most of my office... problem will be if my wife has off (she's a teacher in fairfax), she will distract me.....

What are the chances that, considering the poor traffic conditions, that President Bush would consider calling a State of Emergency so that everyone could stay home, safe?

The ice storm last week was probably not as bad as this one and look at all the chaos it created.

Tim -- I'm so jealous. A lot of us are not as fortunate to be able to work from home.

RJM -- you are so right.

I'm a federal contractor, and I've already scheduled two conference calls in lieu of meetings on my agenda for tomorrow - "just in case."

Great. So I have to waste a day of leave to sit home and watch the crud outside. I save my leave for the times I can enjoy outside in warmer weather.

Reason #5,743 why I hate winter.

matt,
are you saying this just to tease me?

"Nevertheless, we have had several instances over the last few winters where it stayed snow much longer than the models suggested."

The DC area gov't will normally go on what service Metro can provide... if there is limited interruptions, they will just have liberal leave, if above ground stations and tracks are very limited, and they have power delays, Gov't closes....

I've got to drive down from Ballston to Asheville, North Carolina for the Mount Mitchell Challenge this weekend. (Should be some fun weather there the next few days!) Should I try to get as far down I-81 as possible tonight or just head out tomorrow?

I guess the heart of my question is should the precipitation from this system remain snow/sleet along the I-81 corridor or are ice totals going to sky rocket during the day tomorrow with CAD along the east side of the mountains?

I just have to say - this blog is great! Seriously, it's now my first (and only) stop for local weather... because it's so simple and not overburdened with maps and graphics that take too long to load... and definitely not as cumbersome as that stuff at weather.com.

great job, post.com!

For all of you celebrating staying home tomorrow, have pity on me, with a 7:00 p.m. flight Friday out of Boston scheduled to land at IAD at 8:45 p.m. And even if I do make it, my car will have been outside for the whole event.

Probability looks like another night spent trying to get some sleep at Logan airport...which isn't very possible since the floor crew spends the whole damned evening and early morning polishing and buffing the floors.

@ Jeff, I hear you - I've got a 7am flight from Dulles tomorrow a.m.... My concern is actually less about the flights taking off (I think if it's been all snow without much accumulation that it'll fly) and more about getting there.

Anyone have any thoughts on actual accumulation on the roads - i.e. 66/Dulles toll road? (I plan to order a cab/sedan for 4:30.)

My son's high school is hosting a debate tournament on Saturday and I have to make two huge pans of pasta salad. What's the chance that thing will clear up by early enough Saturday morning so that the tournament can proceed?

Woot!

Working from home again tomorrow. A one day in the office work week is always a good week. ;-)

Trail Goat: I'd go as early as you can. it will be easier traveling if you go when it's not precipitating

logan: there may be some snow on the roads at 4:30am, but it won't be impassable. this is not a blizzard or crippling storm

vapensant: The Saturday tournament should be ok. Most precip should be outta here by then

Let it snow, let it snow, and I will be so happy that I don't have to go, to work that is.

Let it snow, let it snow, and I will be so happy that I don't have to go, to work that is.

Any thoughts on whether the weather will have let up enough by late tomorrow to let a 5:40 PM flight get out of Dulles?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008

DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-VAZ027>031-040>042-051>054-WVZ055-501-
502-220300-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.080222T0200Z-080223T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0003.080222T0300Z-080223T0300Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-
CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...BAYARD...PETERSBURG
238 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

A STORM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...
LIKELY CLOSE TO 10 PM. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ICING...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH... IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL
PROBLEMS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
THROUGH THIS EVENT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Cap Weather - on the old site, just before a storm you used to have a graph saying something like

Chances for each of the following:

dusting 10%
1-2 inches 50%
2-4 inches 30%
4+ inches 10%

You would also have a Q&A that would say something like this:

Q - Can this storm fizzle out completely?
A - No because... or Not likely because...

Q - Can this storm blow up?
A - No because... or Yes because...

I found these posts to be the most helpful. Any chance you will bring them back?

We have a 7:45 flight out of DCA on Saturday. What are the chances for this taking off? We have a cab ordered to get us there....hopefully.

I am predicting no school for Loudoun, Prince William, and probably Fairfax. I think Arlington and Alexandria are questionable.....

Winter Storm Warning, yes!

I have the jidders that somehow this storm will totally change and it will be all rain and I will have school tomorrow. I'm NERVOUS!!

If this hasn't been suggested before, try the FAA website for real time airport info. www.faa.gov and click on Airports and Air Traffic, then Airport Status & Delays. It gives info on every airport in the U.S. More reliable than the airline websites but unfortunately, can't provide any clues as to road conditions.

crk...yes--we will have that info posted later tonight. btw, your example probabilities seem spot on :)

skilover-- don't expect major flight issues saturday

figures-- per earlier comments, expect delays... but this is not a crippling storm that will cause mass cancellations and close down airports

Sweet... I won't hold my breath, but Liz is totally calling in tomorrow.

Peter, I was the same way all day. The snow is supposed to happen overnight, and then it'll start freezing raining (or whatever the proper verb is for "to freezing rain", lmao)

Just like Ice cubes down the toilet (LOL) said, I think that most counties will not have school, with the exception of the smaller counties/cities, those will be questionable.

The NWS said that the snow will start 9-10 tonight. Maybe the school systems (not WV...which call it weeks before the storm hits, LOL) will call school tonight? That would be a nice change :)

Ugh, I know. I'm completely crazy about snow days. Even though I don't set my alarm, it's like my unconscious being wakes me up around 4:30AM every time it snows and I go to the computer...check the MCPS website, and they NEVER seem to make a call until like 4:50AM-5:00AM.

they just want us to do our homework and go to be at a decent hour.

Peter: I'm the exact same way. If there is even a .001% chance of a snow day I'll be awake an hour before my alarms go off. The Prince William County website says they make the call at 445, but they don't make it before 530 usually.

Knowing the guy at the school headquarter place thing, he'll put us on a delay, send us to school, and around noon he'll realize how bad the weather has gotten and he'll keep us in school until normal closing time to "allow the road crews to clear the roads." That was what they said back in January when they kept us open. The road crews didn't do ANYTHING. LOL

Random thought here...that would really really suck to be a student in one of the cities here (DC, Alexandria, Arlington, etc). It seems they never have a snow day because they have way fewer roads than we do and they're always warmer.

i have a flight out of DCA at 7pm friday. i've held off posting the question because i've been afraid of the answer...so?

Prediction:

DCPS: Open on time
ALL other schools: closed
Federal Government: 2 hour delay

DCteacherchic, I agree with all of your predictions.

Heh, I'm putting it on the line too... got an essay due and it's only half done.

Still no apple rating? Homework's done, but would prefer not to set the alarm :-)