CommuteCast: Decidedly Mild
Still warm Tuesday with showers & thunderstorms late
*Flood Watch Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning*
The third day of meteorological spring has brought quite warm temperatures to the region and highs have topped out in the upper 60s to near 70° -- nearly 20 degrees above average -- in most locations. The commute home will be dry and pleasant as temperatures drop through the 60s and south winds gust up to 25 mph at times.
Tonight: Clouds will increase overnight after a mostly clear start and by morning most of the region will be blanketed by thickening clouds. Temperatures will continue to be mild overnight thanks to a south wind bringing more warmth to the area. Expect lows to only hit the mid 40s in the suburbs while staying closer to 50 degrees downtown.
Tomorrow: Tuesday will be another warm day, this time with less in the way of sunshine across the area. Expect clouds to dominate along with a south wind that will continue pumping warm and moist air north into the region. Some rain is possible in the morning, but afternoon hours into the overnight will bring higher odds of significant showers and thunderstorms as a cold front begins to affect the area. There is a chance of some severe thunderstorms though the region is currently on the northern edge of the area at risk with better chances to our south. High temperatures will again reach the upper 60s to near 70° across most of the area.
See Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and a peak at the weekend.
By Ian Livingston |
March 3, 2008; 3:15 PM ET
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Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | March 3, 2008 3:59 PM
70 today and possible snow Friday-saturday? Probably not but this is an interesting video on it.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness
the long range video
Posted by: JJ | March 3, 2008 4:08 PM
Yep! Mighty upset about this FLOOD WATCH just in time for tomorrow evening's Clarendon Ballroom dance!!!
Don't expect them to CANCEL the dance; they didn't do it a few weeks ago when we had the ICE STORM on dance night! Sure cut down attendance though. One reason we DON'T need this nasty flood watch on dance night!
Posted by: El Bombo | March 3, 2008 4:29 PM
SNOW!!!!!! 9th Inning, last at Bat. 3/8!!!
What will th3 9th inning bring
Single (Did you see a flake??)
Double (Slushy Fun Mess)
Triple (No school)
Home Run (Little, Big Daddy)
Grand Slam (Big Daddy !!!)
Strike Out (Rain, No Storm)
Walked, (Sleet, Ice)
Posted by: Big Daddy | March 3, 2008 4:30 PM
Big Daddy......You forgot Hit By Pitch....:(
Posted by: Matt, Capital Weather Gang | March 3, 2008 4:35 PM
Auctually, I thought of it, but couldn't think of a weatehr solution for it.
Hmmm. Hit by a Pitch. (Rain to Sleet to Snow, 2-4 inches on back side.)
Posted by: Big Daddy | March 3, 2008 4:39 PM
First
Posted by: | March 3, 2008 4:41 PM
JJ.
Interesting clip. The EURO models have been pretty reliable so far this winter.....:)
Euro has a bomb hitting NE and also brings us a BIG storm as well. We need that trough to dig down and phase in.
GRAND SLAM!!!!!! or strike out. This storm is gonna swing at all pitches, lets hope it makes contact. Bring back "The Babe".
Posted by: skinsfn | March 3, 2008 4:55 PM
VATechBob,
Are you still leaning on a "NO Snow" solution for 3/8. Or do you see any possibility this weekend for winter weather?
Thanks.
Posted by: Stormy | March 3, 2008 5:04 PM
I'm lovin what Henry Margusity is saying over at Met. Madness :) :) :) Hey, a chance is better than nada...
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | March 3, 2008 5:43 PM
Posted by: | March 3, 2008 6:24 PM
Posted by: | March 3, 2008 6:27 PM
DC is well into the "mix" band in that graph. Throw in the usual Accuweather hype and this will be a rain event.
It's March people - time for us Spring, Summer and Fall lovers to rein supreme!!!
Posted by: Southside FFX | March 3, 2008 7:17 PM
SouthsideFFX: You get April, May, June, July, August, September and the better half of October. Snow lovers get: December, January, February. Let us have just a little more fun, no?
The 18Z looks pretty good for at least some snow this Friday. It's no blizzard, but--to be honest--do we really want one? My hopes are for 3-5 inches of snow, though there's only a slim, slim chance of that.
Posted by: mcleaNed | March 3, 2008 7:39 PM
Southside: WAY to early to speculate precip line....Accuweather threw that up to forecast a medium average point on storm track . Also, the hot weather will be here soon enough, no need to rush it.
Posted by: VA | March 3, 2008 7:42 PM
Mcleaned, Latest EURO is best model run for us. Showing a good size storm hitting the entire coast. Also, Euro has been pretty accurate this winter....;)
Posted by: VA | March 3, 2008 7:50 PM
Grand Slam!
Posted by: | March 3, 2008 8:10 PM
Maybe a Bunt at best.
Posted by: Greg | March 3, 2008 8:23 PM
No a two run shot.
Posted by: Period | March 3, 2008 8:26 PM
And Bob is still silent.
Posted by: Period | March 3, 2008 8:29 PM
The "Flood Watch" for tomorrow will not verify for most except far west mts. and localized urban runoff. The soil is simply too dry.
Late week, the ECMWF and DGEX pounds us with a winter storm, the GFS and GGEM is still waffling.
Posted by: Augusta Jim | March 3, 2008 8:31 PM
I've never seen this area (besides Alexandria) flood anyway...
Posted by: Period | March 3, 2008 8:45 PM
He's probably just not on Capital Weather 24/7...shocker!
Posted by: To Period | March 3, 2008 8:54 PM
The only good sign about all of this, Chicago is not getting dumped on again!!
Posted by: Augusta Jim | March 3, 2008 9:24 PM
Tired of wishing/hoping for snow -- after today's mild temps, I'm ready for spring and summer....
Posted by: VAStateOfMind | March 3, 2008 9:27 PM
Washed my truck 2day, so there is a 100% chance of rain in the next 24 hrs. Hard 2 get a big snow with temps in the 40's, still don't see a big snow Fri. or Sat., maybe a few flakes. Of course, nothing is certain in the weather, expect that it will change.
Posted by: VaTechBob. | March 3, 2008 10:26 PM
To To Period,
It's my home inside of my home.
Posted by: Period | March 3, 2008 10:26 PM
Bunt....Ha. I forgot that one.
I've seen a bunt turn into a home run before. Throw got away from 1st baseman.
Charge the Mound (When we are tired of getting inside (NW) pitches (lows).
Posted by: Big Daddy | March 3, 2008 11:03 PM
00z GFS finally agrees on decent coastal storm and not out to sea. However our temps are warm/borderline. Do any other models show our temps colder.
Posted by: VA | March 3, 2008 11:10 PM
Anyone,
Is it true if the storm a coastal storm is strong enough, it will pull down more cold air. Thanks
Posted by: VA | March 3, 2008 11:12 PM
Cap Team. You may want to post some thoughts tomorrow on Friday/Saturday system. All the models are now in agreement of a coastal storm.
Posted by: | March 3, 2008 11:59 PM
The 4:00am Update from the NWS - Put a fork in Winter:
LL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCR ON FRI MRNG...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF COAST. ONE OF THE DEEPEST UPPER TROF
AXIS/S OF THE SEASON W/ A NEARLY STRAIGHT ORIENTATION WILL PUSH A
STEADY STREAM CANADIAN COLD AIR DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS DOWN INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRI INTO EARLY SAT. AHEAD OF THIS DEEPEST PORTION
OF THE TROF AXIS...A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE NE/WRD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD EARLY
FRI. LR MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A MORE
W/RLY TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SFC LOW. ECMWF EVEN MORE W/RLY
W/ THE LOW CENTER PUSHING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APLCHNS...WHILE
THE GFS HAS THE LOW SKIRTING THE ATLNTC COAST FROM SC TO MA. WITH
EITHER TRACK...THICKNESS APPEAR TOO WARM FOR SNOW EAST OF THE SHENDH
VALLEY...EVEN AT PRECIP ONSET. A SN/RA MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELVNS AT THE ONSET EARLY FRI. THO MUCH OF THE INTRUDING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED W/ STRENGTHENING
WAA...SO WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE UNLIKELY OUTSIDE THE MTNS...ESPC
FOR THE I-95 CRDR AND THE COASTAL REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW IN THIS CASE WOULD BE THE QPF FOR THE SYSTEM.
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY /CONSISTENT W/ PREV RUNS/ WOULD BE JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST W/ ONLY SCT BANDS OF MODERATE LL JET INDUCED
ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR THE MID ATLNTC. THEN SOME
ISLD AREAS OF FROZEN PRECIP...MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES TO THE NORTH EARLY SAT.
Posted by: Greg | March 4, 2008 4:22 AM
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