Whew! I was just dodging cats and dogs out there.

Anyone have any Purina?

The latest from the HPC, issued less than an hour ago, suggests most of our area to be under a significant winter storm threat early next week.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Weathergrrl: If this storm materializes, the most likely time for significant wintry precip. for most of our area would be late Monday and Monday night. Usually, nocturnal timimg is important for significant early spring snow for this latitude, except for the higher mts.

make that timing !

Tomorrow's forcast is calling for serious winds. How much do you think this will impact area flights?

VALID 12Z SUN MAR 23 2008 - 12Z WED MAR 26 2008

...POTENTIAL FOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...

MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD EAST COAST/W ATLC CYCLOGENESIS DAY
5. ..WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARD THE
DEVELOPED SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEVERAL OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE AS INTENSE AS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS LOW...WITH A SIMILAR
TRACK FROM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK.
THERE IS PLENTY OF
PRECEDENT FOR LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL...EVEN OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IN MANY WAYS...MARCH IS AN
IDEAL MONTH FOR LARGE STORMS AND IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
RIGHT...THEY CAN BE HISTORIC EVENTS. SOME OF THE YEARS THAT HAD
DEEP LATE SEASON SNOWS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THIS REGION IN THIS
REGION IN LATE MARCH 1942 1958 1964 1971 1974 1983.

Canadian lightning update: Isolated strikes, chiefly in the Tennessee Valley.

Current weather: Unfavorable for evening errands at present.

Snowstorm next week??? Probably nothing big but some snow possible late Monday.
ECMWF (Euro) seems to be the model most favorable to this storm. Some models have this storm tracking south of us.

This could be interesting per Jim's earlier e-mail...

...POTENTIAL FOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...

MODELS CONT TO CONVERGE BUT WITH A WIDE SPREAD ON EAST COAST/W
ATLC CYCLOGENESIS DAY 5...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN TRENDING
STRONGLY TOWARD THE DEVELOPED SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEVERAL OF THE
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE AS INTENSE AS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS
LOW...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK FROM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO EAST OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC BENCHMARK.

00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES A RARE HISTORIC HVY WINTER EVENT FROM
NC INTO NEW ENGLAND
THERE IS PLENTY OF PRECEDENT FOR LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL...EVEN
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IN MANY
WAYS...MARCH IS AN IDEAL MONTH FOR LARGE STORMS AND IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER RIGHT...THEY CAN BE HISTORIC EVENTS. SOME OF THE
YEARS THAT HAD DEEP LATE SEASON SNOWS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THIS
REGION IN THIS REGION IN LATE MARCH 1942 1958 1964 1971 1974 1983.

I think MOT added some of his own "dreamcasting" to his copy of the text from the NWS.

Spring starts late tonight guys. Lets be realistic about snow chances. If its supposed to start, according to models today, monday night then we should hold off speculations until monday evening! Though, it would be a great way to usher in spring....

Just when you think winter is over, we get threats of an unusual late season snow.

It seems unlikely at this point with April being so close. However, we will have a lot of ingredients present that may contribute to favorable conditions next week.

A coastal hugging storm (not inland storm)
NAO has gone negative
Temps look to be cold enough to suppport snow.
Most models are beginning to agree on a coastal storm.

So we will see.

Just when you think winter is over, we get threats of an unusual late season snow.

It seems unlikely at this point with April being so close. However, we will have a lot of ingredients present that may contribute to favorable conditions next week.

A coastal hugging storm (not inland storm)
NAO has gone negative
Temps look to be cold enough to suppport snow.
Most models are beginning to agree on a coastal storm.

So we will see.

Capital Weather, I like the severe weather tracking station boxes at the top of the page. Great idea!

Check this out...Kinda cool and looks better too. Remember those guys that posted...youhavebeenwarnedMarch5th....was a joke

However, for those interested in a little more local storm "hype"/gossip. Go to

http://www.earlywarningweather.blogspot.com/

Cap Team, This is still my favorite site/blog.

Rain winding down fast it seems? Hasn't been wet here in a while.

I like the new Severe Weather Tracking Station!

Maybe we'll get a REAL thunderstorm tonight. You know, one that actually HAS lightning in it? The last few "storms" we got were heavy rain and wind, no thunder.

This system has been another under performer at .20, ending 7:45.

The line now moving through W.Va., associated with the front may change this total.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 p.m., 60 miles to my west.

Somebody PLEASE tell me we're not going to slide between these two lines of precip I'm looking at on the regional radar.

Laura, we won't slide between those two lines of precip.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

Shows rain coming right at us, maybe you need to refresh your radar? I dunno.

A Jim,
Thanks for the NPR link in the earlier discussion thread. As we have pointed out in the past (although not recently), compared to the atmosphere, the ocean is a lesser understood element in the atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere system, followed by ice dynamics. Considering that it accounts for more than 2/3 of the earth's surface, certainly much more needs to be learned about how it operates and especially how it interacts with the atmosphere.

And of course the biosphere and lithosphere also have roles to play.

.........WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY.............

Well I could have told you that, the wind picked up out of nowhere here about an hour or two ago...

Snow next Monday? Hm...don't know how I feel about that - that's my birthday! I've had any number of birthdays negatively impacted by late-season snow over the years, but since all the partying will be completed over the previous weekend - okay, bring it on!

Steve and all CWG: Could we possibly get an article sometime that summarizes the roles that the various spheres that you mention in your above post play, at least to the extent known at this time? CapWx educational articles are the best!

To follow up on JC's post above, any thoughts on how flights out of DCA will be affected tomorrow? Thanks.

Ahhh... even though we probably won't get any snow, I still enjoy seeing a storm on models. Looks too far to the south right now, hopefully it (the storm) travels on a more westward track then guidance shows.

On a more relevant note to this CapWx post, I hope it thunderstorms tonight. I miss lightning, but I like it better in the daytime. Oh well.

Line passed through HGR with no lightning.. as with many frontal passages recently looks like it's an intense core of rain/wind and not much thunder. Still think these types of systems could give us some good t-storms in a few weeks if they continue.

Steve: I agree that we need more study of the ocean...we've spent millions of dollars exploring miles into space and yet remain essentially ignorant about the vast ocean biome just below where we live. And yet this hidden domain is right here home on our own planet.

I really think this storm on monday will happen. Why? 2 Reasons. 1) I love snow and of course the one time I leave (i'll be in Italy) It will snow. 2) All winter TWC never called for snow more than 2 days out and my forecast for Potomac Monday night is guess what SNOW!!!!