Rain is, so far, stay at bay to our west. Pollen bothering anyone else? I am really wanting this rain to wash it out. Minus the threat for isolated tornadoes. That March jet stream cannot be tamed!

Another [url="http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MEZ002&warncounty=MEC003&firewxzone=MEZ002&local_place1=Caribou+ME&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning"]big storm[/url] for northern Maine. Caribou is sure to break its seasonal snowfall record!

Wow, today must be the area wide "Emergency Alert System Test" day or something. I woke up at 12:00 this afternoon to WRQX 107.3FM testing the EAS, and just now (12:21) WJZW 105.9 tested the EAS.

It is almost pitch black in Lake Ridge. I love it!

Camden - I totally sympathize with you on the allergies. They have been kicking my butt all week. And what makes it worse is that the horrifying Bradford Pear trees just bloomed down here. It's warm today which means that their awful smell will fill the entire area. Well, I'll give them the benefit that they're pretty, but I could do without the choking smell. LOL.

Let's just hope that the wallop of rain on the radar doesn't booger out over the DC bubble and it washes everything away. :)

Camden,

I sympathize on the allergies. My joints in my hands are killing me and it's something Claritin can't fix.

Looking forward to the rain not only to wash the pollen but because we are still down in terms of water.

I happened to be walking out my door yesterday and ran into a guy from FFX City who was measuring water levels. I chatted with him and found out we are still some 5 feet down. Apparently, we were 25 down over the summer so it's a big improvement but we still need a good 3 days of rain.

Matt, thanks for the detailed info. Please tell me: are we in one of those global events (maybe La Nina or El Nino, I'm sorry I'm so ignorant) that will give us more winds than usual for a long time to come, or is our current windiness a normal seasonal thing that might settle down soon? As you can see, I'm already in high-anxiety mode over the coming storm.

At least the rain (light but steady now in Eastern Panhandle) is good. I planted a redbud tree last weekend. :)

First of all, weatherdude, what's this waking up at noon business???

Camden, thanks for the detailed post. I love thunderstorms and appreciate that you're focusing on this system as much as you have focused on winter storms.

But being from Indiana, I won't be satisfied until the sky turns green. Does that ever happen here?

Sorry, Matt. I just realized you wrote that post, not Camden.

Also, that ad with the couple under the palm tree is starting to depress me on multiple levels. Hasn't it been there long enough? How about an ad that doesn't throw our lives into such sharp relief? Something like Claritin?

tinkerbelle: In this part of the country, late February through early April normally produces the highest average wind speeds of the year...July and August the lowest. So, yes, the current string of windy days is more or less normal.

Laura: We DO get tornadoes ans supercells in this region, but fewer in number and generally of less intensity than in Indiana. And Indiana, of course, has generally fewer in number than in places further south and west, like Missouri, Kansas, and Arkansas.

Whats up with the models for next Tuesday in NC/SC?

Crazy weather?

The threat of severe weather tonight, while not insignificant, may be overplayed a little. We do have strong winds both at the surface ans aloft, dewpoints marginally high enough for severe weather (50-55 is generally the threshold), and a sharp cold front approaching. But the extensive cloud cover, lack of CAPE, and the timing of the frontal passage after dark should all work to limit thunderstorm development.

Another classic "Margusity-ism" in HM's latest AccuWeather.com blog post in relation to a potential snowstorm next week: "I am in no position to declare any storm will produce snow in the mid-Atlantic until I actually see the snowflakes falling." God knows HM has never let the lack of visible snowflakes stop him from declaring "BIG DADDY!" based on his model prognostications several times a week for the past three months. C'mon, Henry -- you can keep the hype machine running well into April!

Anyone have a link to Euro models for US view. Not Europe. Thanks

How much rain will we get from this system?

Model links:
Click on "Models & Discussions" to the left in the Links box.

Thanks Steve

Could the Euro runs be accurate for next week?

A majority of our storms since December have run up the Appalachians or the Ohio Valley. We always get rain with the inland runners.

Next week EURO shows a healthy storm scooting the east coast. I guess time will tell

The precip shield is moving in a little early...been raining now in Vienna for almost an hour with intermittent heavy rain, no lightning. One thing is puzzling, though....a strong SW surface flow behind the warm front, but with the precip shield moving NW to SE. Ths cold front is still too far off to the west to explain the NW-SE precip movement. What's up?

Laura in NWDC,

A little tornado history that still seems fresh in my mind. Mostly because I experienced the one in College Park freshman year.

College Park, MD Tornado of Sept. 24, 2001:
http://www.weatherbook.com/collegeparkmain.html

La Plata, MD Tornado of April 28, 2002:
http://www.weatherbook.com/laplatamain.html

The 12z GFS has returned to the 00Z solution for the storm threat early next week, after trending east with the 06Z run. The ECMWF agrees with rather strong coastal development. With the NAO negative, cold air will be digging from south central Canada.

Depending on strength and track, parts of the mid Atlantic may witness quite a storm, featuring high winds(especially coastal areas, cold rain and or snow.

An interesting article appeared on the NPR website today concerning a NASA study of ocean water temperatures.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

light rain in capitol hill...

Yep, rain got here early. Been raining at a pretty good clip for the past hour. I am in the Arlington-Courthouse area.

Now what's the supposed time frame for this possible snow event next week? I was all set to let go of winter for good!

Laura in NWDC: I grew up in Indiana too. Palm Sunday tornadoes, 1965. Famous shot from the town I lived in was of a double tornado hitting a trailer park. I have lived here 11 years and never seen the sky turn that sick gray-green color, but about five years ago I saw a truly impressive wall cloud that measured up pretty well.

Hey guys. I've got a baseball game in the afternoon tomorrow... What do you think the odds are of a cancellation? (Our field isn't the best drained, but there are tarps on the mound and home.)

Rain got here pretty early I believe.

I remember the F3 April Fools' Day tornado of April 1, 1973 in Falls Church. An intense low tracked from GA right over northern VA and brought three strongly contrasting air mases together. The line of thunderstorms, though without much lightning, was like nothing I've ever seen.....the shelf cloud was a dull copper BROWN. And the CB tops were never above 30,000 feet.

The only other storm I ever saw that was as frightening was the huge, absolute pitch BLACK supercell of June 24, 1996 that had a twister of multiple intensity....from F0 to borderline F2-3. At 6PM, the sky suddenly went as black as midnight...with SUSTAINED 50-knot winds with hurricane-force gusts.

I did not see the big La Plata, MD storm of April 28, 2002, but that must have been frightening as well.