It's 3 AM: Who Do You Want Making the Forecast?
It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep.
There's a winter storm on the way and they say it's coming soon, possibly arriving by mid-morning. You can barely think straight after awakening in a stupor from a nightmare of impending doom, instigated by last evening's news coverage of the approaching storm.
As you begin to come to your senses, you remember that the local news invariably hypes even a remote chance of the city becoming paralyzed by snow (often regardless of what the station's even-keeled meteorologist has to say). Yet, the questions start running through your head fast and furious:
- Keep the kids at home? Or pick them up early from school? (while avoiding the cars already abandoned in anticipation of the first flakes)
- Rent a bunch of DVDs to keep the kids occupied during the joyful snow day(s) stuck at home?
- Begin pestering the mayor's office for assurance that local side streets will be plowed? (remembering that the ex-mayor's snow removal plan was, believe it or not, spring)
- Stock up on milk, toilet paper and Valium?
- Or, if you're like me, attempt to balance your unabashed excitement for a potential "Big One" against the prospects of unbounded disappointment should the storm be yet another "close miss?"
It's 3 a.m. and there's the smell of snow in the air. Where do you turn for advice?
At this time of night, the Weather Channel's attention is focused on the West Coast. Local TV stations are still in infomercial mode. The local National Weather Service office has had it up to here with your panicked phone calls. And your neighbor is even more frenzied than you, having just heard from a friend of a friend of a friend, who happens to be a wannabe meteorologist, that the "Storm of the Century" is about to befall the region.
What you need is a forecast outlet that knows the area and its terrain, knows the impacts of the urban heat island -- an outlet that is tested and ready to lead despite a dangerously unpredictable atmosphere.
It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want making the forecast?
We're the Capital Weather Gang, and we approve this message.
The author, Steve Tracton, is the current chair of the D.C. chapter of the American Meteorological Society.
By Capital Weather Gang |
March 13, 2008; 11:00 AM ET
Humor
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Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | March 13, 2008 11:13 AM
Best political blog posting of the campaign!
I need to forward this to every poli-blogger Right Now!
Posted by: wiredog | March 13, 2008 11:49 AM
After this winter I've just about given up on the "big ones". (Except for these "windbag" rainstorms which keep harassing my weekends and dance dates!)
Okay, here's the "political" version. It's 3 AM and the phone rings. Hillary has recently been inaugurated. She picks up the phone. It's the Middle East Desk at the Department of State. Hezbollah has just sneaked a suicide bomber into Tel Aviv, killing scores of people at a crowded market. There's a huge crisis on.
"Bill, can you please take this one. It's for you."
(Please note that the young girl in the original "3 AM" message is now working for the Obama campaign!)
Posted by: El Bombo | March 13, 2008 1:44 PM
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06066.gif
I am suprised more people are not talking about Sunday. Is there something Im missing or has everyone lost faith in the models this winter? It sure looks like we are pretty close to the rain snow line on 60 hr.
Posted by: Stormy | March 13, 2008 1:52 PM
Also, I am confused to why nobody is forecasting colder temps here when the GFS show it colder on Sunday. There is obviously something I'm missing and I'd appreciate some feedback...Cap Team? Anyone.
Thanks
"Please nobody (VT) tell me the models are worthless, that doesn't answer my question, I want to know why the meteorologiests are forcasting temps in the 50 to near 60 when GFS disagrees on Sunday. This is a general question, Id really appreciate it.
Posted by: Stormy | March 13, 2008 2:06 PM
From Stormy:
"I want to know why the meteorologiests are forcasting temps in the 50 to near 60 when GFS disagrees on Sunday. This is a general question, Id really appreciate it."
I was standing at the bus stop thinking that exact same question this morning. How are the forecasted temperatures determined?
Personally I've lost all faith in the models. I'm not going to make my own "dreamcasts" anymore looking at the models. I'll save all that until college; for now I'll go solely on what the CWG says. :)
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | March 13, 2008 2:50 PM
Forgot to add this...
El Bombo: I got a great laugh out of seeing that the girl in 3 AM supports Obama when I saw that on CNN last week. That's what the Clinton campaign gets for using stock footage, haha. (Before I get bombarded, yes I know that most everyone uses stock footage...)
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | March 13, 2008 2:51 PM
Sometimes it doesnt matter if your going to be wrong you have to warn the people becuase there is a possibility right now
Posted by: Anonymous | March 13, 2008 3:20 PM
Stormy -- First thing to point out is that the precipitation shown on model maps like the one you link to is that which is predicted to fall during the 6 hours before the valid time of the map. So basically that map shows the freezing line at 850 millibars arriving near D.C. just as most of the precipitation is starting to depart.
That said, I'll point out that in my forecast yesterday, I did have the chance of rain ending with a few snowflakes Saturday night, and I still think that's a possibility.
As for Sunday temps, I had 40s in my forecast yesterday, while Josh's forecast today predicts near 50 (which may be a bit warm looking at the latest data). Not sure which outlets have been saying near 60, but we've been saying 40s to as high as 50 all week.
Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | March 13, 2008 3:25 PM
Get on the CWG ticket for '08!
Posted by: PoliSci | March 13, 2008 3:44 PM
Gotta love the weather models. They can predict with certainty what the temperature will be 50 years from now but can't say for sure what the temp will be on Sunday.
Posted by: Gil | March 13, 2008 5:46 PM
Thanks Dan...That helps
Posted by: Stormy | March 13, 2008 6:28 PM
WaPo ought to give this worthy blog increased visibility, pun intended.
Posted by: jhbyer | March 13, 2008 7:17 PM
And, to think......the people making those red-phone ads for Hillary are some the same folks promoting the hype and fantasies of so-called global "warming".
I guess it verifies the old saying.......two wrongs don't make a right.
Posted by: Mike | March 14, 2008 4:03 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.
Hehehehe, that is clever, I like it!
Capital Weather Gang for 2008!!!
;)