Forecast: Bad Now, Better Weekend
Although Sunday Semi-Showery
*Allow extra time this morning; never cross flooded roads*
The end of your week starts soaking wet. But sunshine starts the weekend before scattered showers creep back into picture late Saturday and once again on Sunday.
AM rain; mostly cloudy p.m. Mid 60s. Rain is likely this morning, which may be heavy, particularly north of town. Take that umbrella! The rain should taper off in the afternoon but it will stay cloudy. Thanks to these clouds and a cool wind from the north, it will not get very warm. High temperatures will only reach the mid 60s.
It will remain mostly cloudy until about midnight, after which clearing is likely. Most spots will dip toward 50 degrees as winds slacken.
Confidence: Medium-High
Keep reading for the forecast through early next week.
TOMORROW
Mostly sunny. Clouds increase late. Mid 70s. For the most part, it will be a simple, sunny day. This is good news for all of the graduation festivities at local universities. During the afternoon, a few clouds will probably start rolling in but any rain should hold off until after dark. High temperatures will be in the oh so pleasant middle 70s. Westerly winds will pick up from time to time, up to 15 mph.
Overnight, skies are mostly cloudy with a slight chance (30%) of showers. Low temperatures will settle in the middle 50s. A light westerly breeze around 10 mph will remain perceptible.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Near 70. An upper level disturbance will ripple through the region triggering a 50% chance of showers, especially during the afternoon. It will neither rain everywhere nor for long periods of time but pack the umbrella.
Overnight, lower 50s (mid to upper 40s suburbs) will cool us off under gradually clearing skies.
A LOOK AHEAD
Gorgeous times for Monday with mid 70s and sunny skies. Confidence: Medium-High
Mild again on Tuesday, in the mid 70s, but more clouds and a chance of rain late. Confidence: Medium
By Camden Walker |
May 16, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
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Posted by: JT | May 16, 2008 8:28 AM
.50 rainfall last 24 hrs. Another "underperformer"
The GFS nailed this qpf, although it was discounted as an "outlier" leading up to the event by nearly all of the pros.
My total rainfall last 45 days (since April 1) is 6.92. Much better than most of the last 18 months, but less than 50% of the rainfall received in the northeast part of Va. and the D.C. area.
63 degrees with bright sunshine this morning.
Posted by: Augusta Jim | May 16, 2008 8:40 AM
.67 through 9 am.
Posted by: Mike @ Twinbrook | May 16, 2008 9:08 AM
Augusta Jim said:
".50 rainfall last 24 hrs. Another underperformer"
Speak for yourself. :> Got about .75 inches here in Columbia, MD.
Posted by: jbroon | May 16, 2008 9:35 AM
I don't know how you call this an underperformer when we never forecast more than 0.75-1.25" and then downgraded that to 0.5-1" last night -- which verified nicely.
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 16, 2008 9:46 AM
Augusta Jim -- fyi ... we very purposely hedged our forecasts all along toward the GFS solution.
Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | May 16, 2008 11:05 AM
Rain mainly over by 8:30 AM in South Arlington. However it continues to drizzle and Sterling thinks this could linger on for much of the day.
Areas from D.C. south could see a few showers this afternoon. It's possible the sun ould break through at times prompting or enhancing instability hence the shower threat. Isolated thunder is also a risk.
Posted by: El Bombo | May 16, 2008 11:08 AM
Rain mainly over by 8:30 AM in South Arlington. However it continues to drizzle and Sterling thinks this could linger on for much of the day.
Areas from D.C. south could see a few showers this afternoon. It's possible the sun could break through at times prompting or enhancing instability hence the shower threat. Isolated thunder is also a risk.
Posted by: El Bombo | May 16, 2008 11:09 AM
Second post --corrected for spelling. I hit "submit" then saw the error! First post may be deleted if possible.
Posted by: El Bombo | May 16, 2008 11:10 AM
jbroon:
I do as always, speak for myself.
Jason and Dan:
I was referring to my area, as I am over 100 miles removed from D.C.
I have access to 22 reporting locations in Augusta Co. The average 24 hr. total qp ending at noon was .34. I feel very comfortable calling this an "underperformer" as I believe any reasonably intelligient person would, considering we were under a flash flood watch from NWS with expected heavy rain after midnight and "predictor models" from TV stations in Charlottesville and Richmond projected 1-2 inches for my area.
Regarding CWG and your forecasts, may I remind everyone that unfortunately, CWG does not forecast for my area.
Dan: I only wish that the GFS could always be this accurate 36-72 hrs. prior to an event.
Posted by: Augusta Jim | May 16, 2008 1:35 PM
ugh here from Boston...I can report clouds and cold weather... dismal! When does it get warm in Boston--anyone know?
Posted by: Camden, Capital Weather Gang | May 16, 2008 3:03 PM
Just received a sizeable rainstorm for the last two hours. Between last night's rain and today's we've received another 1.6".
Posted by: David A. in Stafford | May 16, 2008 3:41 PM
Camden, I grew up in the Boston area, and I can tell you it does nothing but rain (or snow). I once read somewhere--you'd have the statistics, I'm sure--that Boston is wetter than either Portland or Seattle, which base their gloomy reps on higher number of overcast days. As for chill, sweater/jacket is fairly normal for May or Sept. Someone shoulda warned you!
Posted by: tinkerbelle | May 17, 2008 10:34 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.
No flooding in NW Montgomery. Only received about .30 inches.