Forecast: Rain to Break Briefly
More heavy rain late Sunday
The window for nice weather this weekend keeps getting narrower. Gloomy and damp conditions may not let go until mid afternoon today. At that time, mercifully, we should begin a 24-hour period with no rain. But late tomorrow afternoon, another round of rain returns that has the potential to bring more flooding to water-logged Washington Sunday night and Monday.
Light a.m. rain. Slow p.m. clearing. Near 60. Patchy light rain is likely in the morning (60% chance). While it shouldn't amount to a whole lot, it won't be particularly pleasant outside with cool temperatures and a raw north wind at 10-15 mph. Skies will gradually brighten and we may (60% chance) have some sunshine by mid to (more likely) late afternoon. 60 may be the best we can do, although spots to the southwest where there's more sun may reach 65-70.
Partly cloudy and dry overnight, with lows 45-50.
Confidence: Medium
Keep reading for the forecast for Sunday into early next week. Also, be sure to check out NatCast.
TOMORROW
Rain developing late in the afternoon. Near 65. Plan your outdoor activities for the morning. Sunshine will likely show itself when you wake up. Gradually, cloud cover will begin to increase during the late morning and early afternoon. Rain will likely approach from the west just a couple hours later. By 6 p.m. or so, everyone should be in on the rain. Temperatures may warm into the mid 60s before the clouds and rain lower them to near 60.
Overnight, rain is likely, and it may be heavy at times. One to two inches of rain is possible by morning with areas of flooding a strong possibility. Lows drop to 50-55.
A LOOK AHEAD
A raw, wind-swept rain is likely Monday, with the heaviest rain in the morning. The rain may begin to let up a bit during the afternoon, but this storm will be a slow mover -- so light rain and drizzle may persist through the evening. High temperatures may only reach the high 50s. Confidence: Medium
On Tuesday, it's a pretty good bet we'll dry out and some sunshine will return. High temperatures should be near 70. Confidence: Medium-High
By Jason Samenow |
May 10, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
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Posted by: Jaime, Vienna | May 10, 2008 6:31 AM
Accotink/WestSpringfield/MixingBowl storm total (Thur-Saturday 8am) = 3.18"
Got 0.21" since last evening (9pmish).
Posted by: Bikerjohn | May 10, 2008 8:10 AM
The Fairfax/Arlington area is out of the drought apparently. Wow. Nice job weather patterns!
Posted by: Period | May 10, 2008 8:48 AM
Where are you getting your information that we are out of drought? I think it has moderated, but we are coming off three years of a drought pattern. I don't think we have come all the way back.
Posted by: Southside FFX | May 10, 2008 8:56 AM
I too would like to hear a drought update from CWG. I'm sure we're all quite hopeful that we're making progress toward its end (hence Period's comment) but we had a large deficit to overcome.
Posted by: ~sg | May 10, 2008 9:02 AM
Here is a link http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html to the US Drought Monitor. I believe you will see that in the short term we are doing well in the Northern Va. area but in the long run we still have a way to go. Short term means our gardens are doing well and our drinking water supply - as an example, Occoquan Reservoir - are full. Long term means the damage caused by long term drought to the hydrogeology of an area needs time to recover. The water table needs to replenish, etc. This is not done overnight, just like the damage did not occur overnight.
If we keep up this pattern through the summer we should start to see real results in the long term drought. Until then, we should be happy everything is green and we have to cut our grass once a week.
Posted by: PJ Mt Vernon | May 10, 2008 9:31 AM
We'll do something on the drought (or lack there of) in the next week
Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | May 10, 2008 9:59 AM
Thanks to both PJ in Mt. V and to Jason!
Posted by: ~sg | May 10, 2008 10:18 AM
The rain last night and this morning brought the storm total here to 1.44"
Posted by: Mike @ Twinbrook | May 10, 2008 10:43 AM
I take heavy duty allergy meds, but only like to use them on higher count pollen days. I check pollen forecasts religiously this time of year, and have noticed some things. One is that the site linked here and weatherchannel.com (I know, I know- weatherchannel.com isn't so reliable for several reasons- but do those reasons have anything to do with pollen forecasts?)have usually drastically different forecasts. The other is I am surprised on days like these (rainy)the pollen count is so high. Anyone know why?
Posted by: Snowlover2! | May 10, 2008 11:22 AM
Can I just say how wonderful these detailed forecasts are for planning when I do my long run on the weekends? I love them so much. For example, following the forecasts all week led me to believe that Sunday would be a better day to be out for 2 hours than Saturday. I checked one final time this morning and was confirmed. This makes my life a lot more pleasant.
Posted by: Lindemann | May 10, 2008 11:56 AM
I'm glad to see the rain has finally broke, now I wish it would warm up. Still sitting at a chilly 58 here in Rockville at this hour.
Posted by: Havoc | May 10, 2008 12:49 PM
The varied comments concerning the drought status are quite interesting.
The agricultural drought is over for most of the region, at least temporarily.
The hydrological drought is no where near over.
Central Va. is down to only a 2 inch deficit for the year,with the recent rainfall, but remains close to a 15 inch deficit for the past 18 months.
We need a YEAR of well above normal rainfall, evenly dispersed, to replenish the water table. Sorry folks, 6 weeks won't do it.
Posted by: Augusta Jim | May 10, 2008 1:36 PM
OK, slightly adjusted rainfall total... 3.24" - it kept sprinkling/showering after my last report. But NOW it's done--- for a day.
Posted by: Bikerjohn | May 10, 2008 3:03 PM
Thanks for the comments on the drought. I saw a report saying we had the coolest April in 11 years nationally. Al Gore was in office when we had a cooler April.
Posted by: Jaime, Vienna | May 10, 2008 5:59 PM
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Any idea where we are on coming back from last year's drought conditions? I recall those pictures from late last summer of nearly empty lakes. Is there a silver lining in all of this rain?