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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 06/25/2008

Forecast: Umbrella-Free for One More Day

By Dan Stillman

Heat, humidity and storm chances return tomorrow

Be honest now. How many of you grabbed your umbrella by reflex this morning? It's nothing to be ashamed of after what seems like an endless series of summer storm chances, most of which have panned out, and then some. But for the second straight day, storms chances are slim to none. Come tomorrow, however, it's back to the routine, with storm chances through the weekend. That's right -- grab the umbrella, and plan to use it.

TODAY (WEDNESDAY)

Mostly sunny. Upper 80s. No rain, lots of sun, not too humid. Need I say more? Well, if you really need additional details, highs will make the upper 80s with light winds. Tonight, partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s downtown, mid-to-upper 60s in the burbs.

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend, and see NatCast for this evening's weather at Nationals Park.

TOMORROW (THURSDAY)

Hot and humid. Partly sunny. Isolated p.m. storms. Low to mid 90s. Some sun but also some clouds mixing in. The real story, though, is the jump in temperatures with highs in the low 90s, and in humidity with dew points back into the mid 60s. Can't rule out a few isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon or evening.

Overnight, partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s downtown, near 70 in the burbs.

A LOOK AHEAD

The forecast for Friday? Pretty much like Thursday -- partly sunny and humid with highs in the low to mid 90s and a few isolated storms possible in the late afternoon or evening. Then, mild Friday night with lows only dropping to the mid 70s in town, near 70 in the burbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Surpise, surprise ... another Saturday with storm potential. We'll do the whole partly sunny and humid thing over again -- actually, very humid -- with highs in the low to mid 90s and a chance of afternoon/evening scattered storms developing, some of which could be strong to severe. Confidence: Medium

More storms seem likely on Sunday as a cold front comes through, though not so sure on the timing yet. Highs should be somewhere in the upper 80s to low 90s. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | June 25, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

I have a compact umbrella that I am now leaving in my backpack in the likely event that it rains during the day.

Posted by: Murre | June 25, 2008 5:58 AM | Report abuse

Dan, you've got 'light winds' in your forecast for today; NWS Marine forecast calls the wind NW 10-15 kt throughout the day, but CBOFS backs you with winds of 5 kt or less (and clocking around to SW by afternoon). Realistically, it doesn't look like I have any reason to pin my hopes on the Marine forecast, do I? I never did make it out onto the water yesterday. :-(

Posted by: ~sg | June 25, 2008 8:05 AM | Report abuse

We mets are just so darn funny....from today's HPC preliminary extended discussion:

THE MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES SEEN
DURING THE LAST FEWS DAYS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST FINDING
SOME RESOLUTION ON THE 00Z CYCLE. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS ON THE
SLOW...DEEP END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL CENTER OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CHOSE TO STICK
CLOSER TO THE MEAN CHARTS WITH THE UPDATE PACKAGE...WHICH HAVE THE
HEART OF THE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCLUDED. THIS EMPHASIS FITS MIDSUMMER
CLIMATOLOGY THE BEST. AND FOR THOSE ALREADY TIRED OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CHASING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...THERE
ARE ONLY 180 SHOPPING DAYS LEFT UNTIL CHRISTMAS.

Posted by: D | June 25, 2008 10:25 AM | Report abuse

I saw some altocumulus floccus and castellanus this morning...a possible indicator of evening thunderstorms.

Posted by: El Bombo | June 25, 2008 11:48 AM | Report abuse

sg -- looks like NWS Marine forecast has backed down to 5 kt. Don't think we'll see winds any higher than the 5-10 mph range today.

El Bombo -- I'm pretty confident we'll stay dry through the day and overnight.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | June 25, 2008 11:59 AM | Report abuse

Dan, thanks...I've given up and retreated indoors to do actual work. Ugh. :-(

Posted by: ~sg | June 25, 2008 12:58 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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