Update: Does Heat Wave End With a Bang?
If storms develop today, they could be strong or severe
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 p.m.*
*Heat Advisory in effect through 8 p.m.*
Temperatures: At the noon hour, temperatures were in the low to mid 90s and rising across the metro area. Highs this afternoon should max out in the mid to upper 90s, and a few spots could reach the 100-degree mark. Heat indices are already around 100 and are on their way to near 105.
Chance of storms: Most likely timing for storms is late afternoon through evening, between 4 p.m. and 11 p.m., with a chance of some isolated activity earlier and some storminess possibly lingering to the east after. The 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. window is when the strongest storms could come through, if they develop.
It certainly won't rain during the entire late afternoon and evening. And there's a chance that storms won't materialize at all, or will be limited in coverage or focused north and northeast of the area. But keep in mind that more often than not, extreme heat waves end with a bang not a whimper.
Severe potential: Any storms that do form have the potential to develop rapidly and become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the metro area on the southern end of a moderate risk for severe storms. Along with lightning and heavy downpours, the biggest threats look to be damaging winds and large hail. Tornadoes aren't out of the question, but chances are higher to the north and northeast in Pennsylvania, New York and Vermont.
Stay tuned for updates. Meanwhile, the end of the heat wave is in sight. See our full forecast through the weekend.
By Dan Stillman |
June 10, 2008; 12:40 PM ET
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Posted by: Mike | June 10, 2008 12:53 PM
Wow...*nervous laugh*...the SPC caught me totally off guard with the moderate risk of storms today. I just had nasty flashbacks to Wednesday.
They have most of VA circled in the "45% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of any point in the region" thingy. I don't think I've ever seen any of the probabilities say 45% before.
Strike what I said this morning about "My cold front overthrew the heat regime and all I got was this lousy thunderstorm" comment. Change that to "...was this horrific thunderstorm."
Why do most of the thunderstorms is this area immediately go severe nowadays? I remember just a few years ago when we would just have regular thunderstorms.
Although...I would much rather have a snowstorm :)
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | June 10, 2008 1:13 PM
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BREAKING OUR HEAT WAVE...BUT NOT WITHOUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONTINUOUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS.
AT 1:00 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN WASHINGTON DC AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
EXTENT AND MAKE FOR A MESSY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR FOR THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND WILL LIKELY DOWN MORE
TREES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR
COMMUNITY. REMEMBER A WATCH IS CAUTIONARY...A WARNING MEANS THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT. AT 1 PM NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WERE YET
IN EFFECT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.
Posted by: ugh | June 10, 2008 1:44 PM
Storm lines are starting fire up in WV
Posted by: MDScot | June 10, 2008 2:39 PM
So I biked to work via metro today. Since metro doesn't allow bikes on until 7pm do you think the storms will hold off until after 7:30. Really don't want to get caught while it is raining since I don't even feel comfortable in my car when it rains due to the crazy drivers around here.
Posted by: Bike commuter | June 10, 2008 2:42 PM
Mesoscale Discussion 1308 says a severe weather watch is likely for most of VA, DC and MD.
"STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM PARTS OF WRN VA AND
PA AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z."
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | June 10, 2008 2:50 PM
Perfect timing...I post that and 3 minutes later:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501 IN EFFECT TIL 10:00 PM
Posted by: weatherdudeVA (Lake Ridge) | June 10, 2008 2:56 PM
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SPC upgraded area to moderate risk, primarily due to wind