http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/ 15 en Copyright 2008 Thu, 15 May 2008 14:35:00 -0400 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.36 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Heaviest rain expected between midnight and AM commute *Flood Watch midnight through Friday morning* *Take caution in flood-prone areas; never drive through flooded roads* Radar: Latest mid-Atlantic radar loop from the National Weather Service. Click here to expand. Refresh page to update. What is UTC? In this pattern, nice weather doesn't seem to last long, so it should be no surprise that more rain is on the way. Temperatures reached the mid to upper 70s today with a little more sunshine than expected, but clouds are now thickening ahead of the next storm system. Though this round should be less significant than the last two, the region remains susceptible to flooding thanks to saturated ground. Tonight: Showers should develop across the area from west to east during the late evening (between 7 and 10 p.m.), and a batch of moderate to heavy rain is likely to move in around or http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_rain_returns_flood_1.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_rain_returns_flood_1.html Forecasts Thu, 15 May 2008 14:35:00 -0400 Flood Watch tonight as more rain approaches The Potomac River peaked just over flood stage at Great Falls on Tuesday at 2 p.m. When I arrived at Great Falls National Park Tuesday afternoon, the parking lot was over half full and a steady stream of visitors moved up the trail toward the overlooks. The park always seems to do brisk business during floods. Our recent heavy rain put the Potomac River over flood stage, but it was still far from record levels. Keep reading for more photos, including two showing how Tuesday's flooding compared to the Great Flood of 1996. More flooding rains on the way? See our full forecast through the weekend and into early next week. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/great_falls_in_flood_stage.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/great_falls_in_flood_stage.html Photography Thu, 15 May 2008 11:00:00 -0400 More flooding a threat, but rain totals uncertain *Flood Watch in effect this evening through Friday morning* A weak frontal system and an area of low pressure will conspire to bring rain back into the picture tonight, especially after midnight into the first part of the day Friday. Unfortunately for sun-lovers, it looks like clouds will stick around on Friday and for parts of the weekend, though both Saturday and Sunday look predominately dry. TODAY Increasing p.m. clouds. Mid to upper 70s. Rain tonight. Despite increasing afternoon clouds, temperatures -- aided by winds from the west at 5-10 mph -- will reach the mid to upper 70s. Tonight will be overcast, with periods of moderate rain moving into the area during the late evening or overnight hours. Expect mild lows near 60. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend into the start of next week, and see our forecast http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_cloudy_today_rain_ret.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_cloudy_today_rain_ret.html Forecasts Thu, 15 May 2008 05:00:30 -0400 What: 2008 Post Hunt Where: Penn Quarter When: Noon-5 p.m. Looking for the Sunday forecast? We've hidden it somewhere in downtown D.C. Good luck finding it. Just kidding... Actually, the Sunday forecast is a bit of a mystery, as the models don't have a very good handle yet as to how much cloud cover and showers will be generated by a piece of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Best guess for now is the rain-or-shine event will see more clouds than sun, temperatures in the 60s and some showers around, but probably not a steady rain. Confidence: Medium Check back for updates now through early Sunday. And see our full forecast through the weekend and into early next week. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/post_hunt_forecast_kinda_puzzl.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/post_hunt_forecast_kinda_puzzl.html Thu, 15 May 2008 05:00:00 -0400 Last Thursday, Capital Weather Gang's (CWG) newest writer, Steve Tracton, defended meteorologists against the critical points raised in the NY Times Freakonomics blog "How Valid Are T.V. Weather Forecasts?" NBC 4 Chief Meteorologist Bob Ryan agreed with Steve's assessment and weighed in with some insightful comments: Steve Tracton gives a excellent, useful cogent discussion and answers to the tired cliches and plain errors and misinformation as in the original Freakonomics post and responses and other "rants about the weatherman" for lack of a better term. Some observations of my own. 1. No matter how much the science and predictability advances, people's expectations will continue to out pace what is possible. A 24 hour forecast accurate close to 90% of the time. . . we want 95% accuracy. 95% accuracy in 10 years. . .we want 99% accuracy. Talk to your parents or grandparents about how accurate forecasts (and more importantly http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/comment_of_the_week_bob_ryan_o.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/comment_of_the_week_bob_ryan_o.html Capital Weather Gang Wed, 14 May 2008 19:00:10 -0400 Transition back to unsettled weather Thursday Clouds: Latest mid-Atlantic infrared satellite loop, courtesy Unisys. Click here to expand. Refresh page to update. Today was another welcome respite for weather-weary residents, especially those continuing to clean up from flood damage following recent rain across the area. Even with increasing clouds throughout the day, temperatures have managed to climb into the low and mid 70s as southerly winds help pump in warmer air. Tonight: Clouds will stick around all night as temperatures fall to around 60 degrees in Washington and the upper 50s in the suburbs. Showers may pass through the region overnight, but little rain is expected across the area, and most of the activity should stay to the north. Tomorrow: After a risk of very light early morning showers, Thursday will feature more clouds and a growing chance of more numerous showers by the afternoon or evening. Highs will reach http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_area_continues_to.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_area_continues_to.html Forecasts Wed, 14 May 2008 15:15:00 -0400 Tropical Cyclone Nargis, which exacted a staggering human toll on the politically isolated and poor country of Myanmar, has demonstrated once again that there is an urgent need for a more robust infrastructure in developing countries for issuing and disseminating warnings of natural hazards. Unlike when the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami hit in 2004, government officials had at least one and a half days of warning before Nargis' arrival as a Category Three or Four cyclone on May 3rd. However, it's doubtful that the Burmese military-led government was able to get word to the residents of the hardest hit Irrawaddy delta region in time for them to protect themselves. Even if the warnings had reached this area, it's unclear what, if any, storm shelter options were available to people. Dr. Peter Webster. Photo courtesy Georgia Institute of Technology To get a firsthand perspective on how to improve the timeliness and http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/tropical_cyclone_nargis_which.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/tropical_cyclone_nargis_which.html International Weather Wed, 14 May 2008 10:30:44 -0400 More rain on the way for Thursday night and Friday The conspiracy theorists would say forecasters hedge their predictions toward nicer weather so people will like them. Here on Wednesdays at CWG, there's no hedging necessary. Time and again, the midweek weather has been perfect as can be. And gosh darn it, I think people really like me for it. Just do me a favor and don't hate on my late-week and weekend brethren, ok?. It's not their fault the fair skies never seem to last. TODAY Mostly sunny early. Increasing clouds late. Upper 70s. Enjoy a second nice spring day in a row. Skies should be mostly sunny through early afternoon as highs reach the upper 70s on winds from the south near 10 mph. Then, skies cloud over during the late afternoon, followed by a mostly cloudy night with lows in the upper 50s to near 60 downtown, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_its_midweek_of_course.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_its_midweek_of_course.html Forecasts Wed, 14 May 2008 05:00:00 -0400 More warm weather expected Wednesday Webcam: Latest view of D.C. from the Netherlands Carillon at Arlington National Cemetery. Courtesy National Park Service. After all the rain and bad weather of recent, today has been a welcome and beautiful break! Highs are now topping out in the low 70s, just about everywhere, and light winds out of the northeast are the only reminder of the long-lived storm that ended yesterday. Tonight: Clear and cool conditions will rule the night. Temperatures will range from the mid and upper 40s in the suburbs to right around 50 degrees in Washington. Some patchy fog may form by morning as temperatures cool to near the dew point -- the area remains quite soggy from the last few days. Tomorrow: Our short-lived spell of nicer weather will continue tomorrow, even as clouds begin to increase again by late in the day. Temperatures should reach the mid http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_clear_skies_bring.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_clear_skies_bring.html Forecasts Tue, 13 May 2008 15:15:00 -0400 Watch the video below to understand why it's a bad idea to be in your car when a tornado strikes. This incredible video was captured by a surveillance camera from an equipment company in northern Alabama on Thursday according to the National Weather Service. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/projectile_automobiles.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/projectile_automobiles.html Thunderstorms Tue, 13 May 2008 13:00:38 -0400 Doppler rainfall estimates from the Sunday-Monday storm. The yellow shade is 2.5", the medium orange shade is 4", and the dark red is 6". Courtesy NOAA. Related Washington Post story: Deluge Washes Away Area's Drought It was just this past fall when Reagan National Airport (DCA) observed a record 34 days with no measurable rain. 2007 finished with precipitation 30-40% below average across the region. But for the most part, 2008 has been wet. May already ranks as the 5th wettest on record at DCA, and it's less than half way into the month. So as we've gone from extreme to another, what can we say about the drought? Is it over? The numbers say yes. After one to three inches of rain Thursday and Friday and another three to five inches from yesterday's storm (with isolated 6"+ totals), we no longer have a short-term or long-term rainfall deficit (before http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/drought_buster.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/drought_buster.html Droughts Tue, 13 May 2008 10:30:00 -0400 The long-awaited reunion will only be brief By Matt Rogers, Guest Forecaster With lots of drying to do, the return of the sun will be a welcome sight. This morning will still be cool, but daytime temperatures should muscle their way up to near 70 (despite a wind from the north and a super-soaked ground). The reunion with the sun will be short-lived though as more clouds return on Wednesday, and more showers return by late week into the weekend. Sorry. TODAY Sunshine Abounds! High near 70. A few clouds are possible, but the sun should dominate. A cool morning (near 40 in the outer suburbs) should warm quickly to the upper 60s to near 70F in most locales. Mostly clear skies Tuesday night too, but a cool air mass will linger. Expect lows to be in the 40s suburbs and near 50 in the city. Confidence: High TOMORROW Clouds http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_sun_and_the_city.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_sun_and_the_city.html Forecasts Tue, 13 May 2008 05:00:01 -0400 *Flood warnings lifted except for Fairfax, Loudoun, Fauquier and Montgomery Counties* The final bands of rain are rotating through the region. Precipitation will end from southwest to northeast between 10 p.m. and midnight. Continue to exercise caution as some streams are still rising. Turn around, don't drown. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/update_rain_gradually_pulling.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/update_rain_gradually_pulling.html Updates Mon, 12 May 2008 20:35:15 -0400 Flood warnings continue; gusty winds a concern *Flood Safety: Never Drive or Walk Through a Flooded Road* Radar: Latest mid-Atlantic radar loop from the National Weather Service. Click here to expand. Refresh page to update. What is UTC? Our second big rainmaker in less than a week is ending, finally. Some storm totals through 3 p.m. include 3.84" at National Airport, 4.37" at Dulles Airport, and 3.70" at Baltimore Washington International. These 2-day totals, added to significant rain last week, have water-logged most areas, making flooding a continuing concern and also causing trees to fall in the wind. Rest of the afternoon: As the low slowly departs to the northeast, another area of occasionally moderate rain will pass through this afternoon as winds blow at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. Chilly conditions will also continue through the rest of today and into tonight, after high temperatures only managed to http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_cold_and_waterlogg.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/commutecast_cold_and_waterlogg.html Forecasts Mon, 12 May 2008 15:05:00 -0400 We apologize for this morning's technical difficulties due to a washingtonpost.com blog publishing and comment system outage. Significant Storm Impacts: Widespread Flooding (do not attempt to cross flooded roadways), Road Closures, Isolated Power Outages from Wind, School Closures *Flood Warnings continue in effect across the metro area* Let's call this storm what it is: a late spring Nor'easter of historic proportions. When all is said and done, this storm will have dropped three to six inches of rain, which will rank very high in local spring storm history. But rain is only part of this storm's fury. Winds have gusted over 40 mph in the metro area and 50 mph near the Chesapeake Bay. Sideways blowing sheets of rain will continue today, gradually tapering off this afternoon. Tomorrow, we dry out, but only briefly. TODAY Rain, wind, and cold. Highs 50-55. An intense, slow moving coastal storm will continue to http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_winddriven_deluge.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/forecast_winddriven_deluge.html Forecasts Mon, 12 May 2008 12:00:45 -0400