Posted at 2:10 PM ET, 05/22/2008

Van Hollen: Don't Pop the Champagne Yet

Republicans are scrambling to regroup in the wake of three special election losses and continued atrocious poll data, while Democrats appear buoyant and optimistic at the prospect of gaining significantly more House seats in November. And that makes Chris Van Hollen nervous.

Part of the Marylander's job as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman is to set expectations for his party, and a new memo from Van Hollen being sent to Democratic House members today (you can read the whole memo here) makes clear that he wants his colleagues to stay grounded as he surveys a playing field that could include "more than 75 seats in play." Van Hollen's primary message: All indicators appear positive for the party right now, but they may not stay that way.

"We must not allow our funding lead over the NRCC, our early preparation, our successful recruiting efforts, and most importantly, our special election wins to lull us into a false sense of complacency," Van Hollen writes. "Historically, following a wave election like 2006, the majority party loses seats. We can beat history, but only if we maintain our political momentum, ensure we have the resources to win, and stay focused on our agenda of change."

Van Hollen emphasized that voters often look for a correction after one party or the other sweeps an election, as Democrats did in 2006, so more huge gains for the party would be an aberration. "If we hold the three seats we just won in special elections we will have broken the historical pattern," he writes. Van Hollen also reminds members that the party won two GOP-held seats in special elections during the 2004 cycle, but still lost seats that November.

And while many Republicans have chalked up their losses in Mississippi, Louisiana and Illinois to the national mood and antipathy to the GOP, Van Hollen makes the opposite case (and in the process, gives the DCCC credit). "It would be a mistake to take the wrong message from Democrats' special election wins," Van Hollen writes. "Democratic special election wins were in large part a result of recruiting strong candidates and our focus, preparation, and organization."

Translation: Fatigue from the Bush administration, a poor economy, rising gas prices and other national environmental factors won't carry more Democrats across the finish line in November. Democratic candidates will need the right message, strong research and field capabilities -- which, Van Hollen brags, the DCCC certainly has -- as well as lots of cash.

The party can't possibly afford to throw a million dollars at every seat the way it was able to do during those special elections. To drive that point home, Van Hollen cites a few examples of particularly expensive media markets with potentially competitive seats "out of the nearly 50 strong Democratic challengers running in Republican-held seats and 32 Democratic Members in challenging seats to defend. As we get closer to November, we will have more than 75 seats in play."

As he has repeatedly in the past, Van Hollen warns that conservative groups such as Freedom's Watch will be big players on the financial front, so Democrats should not feel safe just because the DCCC has significantly outraised its GOP counterpart. "As we saw again in the most recent special elections, our main competition is Republicans' outside groups, not the NRCC," he writes.

Van Hollen's memo is designed to give members some reading material during their week-long Memorial Day recess, but it's also targeted at the media, part of an effort to tamp down blossoming expectations of a huge Democratic sweep in the fall. Mention the word "wave" to Democratic campaign operatives, and they grow queasy. Van Hollen hopes that members will feel the same way.

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Posted at 12:02 PM ET, 05/22/2008

Pelosi Deflects VP Question; Dishes on Superdelegates

If Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) defeats the most viable female candidate in American history and wins the Democratic presidential nomination, might he want to balance the ticket by selecting another woman for Vice President? Perhaps someone who's already the highest-ranking woman ever in the line of presidential succession?

Well, too bad. Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) not interested.

Following up a question during her weekly press conference today about Obama considering potential vice presidential candidates, a reporter queried: "If asked, would you serve?"

"Being Speaker of the House is the best job in the world. Why would I want to be number two?" Pelosi responded, grinning widely.

While she was on the subject of the Democratic nomination fight, Pelosi reiterated her longstanding philosophical opposition to the very existence of superdelegates. Pelosi reminded that she had run for Democratic party chair 25 years ago as a staunch opponent of superdelegates. ("You can imagine what a winning platform that was," she said with a laugh.) But she also suggested that there might be a compromise available short of abolishing them altogether.

"If there's some way to have some sort of, say, ex officio delegates, and some elected leaders of the state parties ... there should be some, but it shouldn't be 700... 800 people," Pelosi said.

As chairwoman of this year's Democratic National Convention, Pelosi will have a big say on such matters. Maybe that's why she doesn't want to be on the presidential ticket.

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Posted at 5:25 PM ET, 05/21/2008

Ethics Committee Will Investigate Fossella

The House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct just announced that it has formed an investigative subcommittee to probe Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.), who announced yesterday he would not run for reelection after being charged with drunk driving and revelations of an extramarital affair and a daughter born out of wedlock.

The subcommittee appears to be tasked only with investigating Fossella's drunk driving arrest in Alexandria, not the controversy surrounding Fossella's official trips taken with his alleged mistress, though the probe could be wider than this announcement indicates. The subcommittee will "defer action on its investigation" until the legal proceedings in the drunk driving case have concluded.

The subcommittee will be chaired by Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.). Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-S.C.) will serve as the top Republican, and Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Rob Bishop (R-Utah) will also participate.

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Posted at 5:08 PM ET, 05/21/2008

Friendly Skies for Clinton

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) may be trailing Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in pledged delegates, states won and overall momentum, but she does appear to be winning in two categories -- legislating and courting the flight attendant vote.

As Clinton the candidate spent today wooing seniors at a Florida retirement home, Clinton the Senator was crowing about the House's passage of the catchily-named "Airline Flight Crew Technical Corrections Act." That would be a bill, sponsored by Clinton in the Senate and Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) in the House, to ensure that flight attendants and pilots are covered by the benefits of the Family and Medical Leave Act. The measure passed the House Tuesday in a squeaker, 402-9, and awaits Senate action.

"The denial of leave is a very real hardship for flight attendants and pilots, who often spend several days in a row away from home and family," Clinton said in a statement issued by her still-busy Senate office.

Regardless of whether Clinton's sponsorship will help her win over the votes of flight crews across the land, her statement does remind Capitol Briefing that Clinton and Obama are in fact still Senators, not just parachuting in for high-profile votes but actually writing bills and all that other stuff we learned about on Schoolhouse Rock. Or at least, Clinton is.

Since the start of 2009, Clinton has been the original sponsor of 22 bills and another seven amendments to others' bills. Obama, by contrast, hasn't introduced a single bill this year, though he has sponsored nine amendments.

Of course, at least a few of Clinton's measures have been less-than-momentous, such as the one "recognizing Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater for 50 years of service to the performing arts." And she'd probably rather be leading in the nomination fight and losing on the legislative scorecard, rather than the reverse. But at least she won't feel out of practice if/when she has to return to the Senate full-time, flying back to D.C. on a plane staffed by grateful, smiling flight attendants.

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Posted at 11:17 AM ET, 05/21/2008

Changes Afoot at the NRCC

Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.) is and will remain the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, but House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) demonstrated this morning at a Conference meeting who's really in charge by announcing a series of changes designed to shake up the campaign arm in the wake of three special election losses in the span of two months (and a financial scandal).

Democratic victories in Mississippi, Louisiana and Illinois special elections had prompted many in the GOP to call for Cole's head or, short of that, for the leadership to make wholesale changes at the committee. After several "frank" meetings with Cole, Boehner announced this morning that:

* The NRCC will now wade into competitive GOP primaries when appropriate. This is a significant shift, as Cole's policy has been to stay out of such contests even when the party believes one candidate would clearly be the best general election bet. In Illinois and Louisiana in particular, Republicans suffered because they fielded a poor nominee. The race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) in New York, which could draw several GOP contenders, could be the first high-profile test of the new policy.

* There will be an "audit" of the three special election losses conducted by two as-yet-unnamed Republican lawmakers, designed to figure out what went wrong and how to avoid repeating those mistakes in the future. This could be an embarrassing exercise for Cole and his top staff, but they agreed to it, likely because they didn't have a choice.

* The party will step up its efforts to establish special fundraising committees for seats with contested GOP primaries occurring late in the season, which will raise cash that will automatically go to the eventual nominees. This fairly common practice will prevent those nominees from starting the general election race at a financial disadvantage after a costly primary. This effort will be led by Rep. Pete Sessions (Texas), who lost to Cole in the race to chair the NRCC for this Congress.

In addition to the changes Boehner announced this morning, the NRCC will be adding Ed Brookover as a consultant, putting a close Boehner ally in the committee's senior leadership. Brookover was political director of the NRCC from 1995 to 1999. He is now at the consulting firm Greener and Hook, where his official bio helpfully notes, "During his tenure at the NRCC, Brookover managed the GOP to upset victories in three key special elections."

This is something of a compromise between Boehner and Cole. Last September, Boehner tried to force Cole to fire his two top aides, Pete Kirkham and Terry Carmack, but Cole held his ground. Those two staffers are still in place, so it's unclear now where Brookover will fall in the pecking order. Also uncertain is the role that will be played by a new 12-member advisory committee established a few weeks ago to help oversee the campaign arm. What is clear is that Boehner and his fellow leaders will play an increasingly larger role in guiding the NRCC's decisions for the rest of the year.

Will any of these changes make a real difference in what is shaping up to be a brutal cycle for the GOP? If they don't, it's possible that neither Boehner nor Cole will be around to pick up the pieces in 2009.

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Posted at 6:00 AM ET, 05/21/2008

Death by a Thousand Meetings

One of the primary reasons Capitol Briefing chose to become a journalist (aside from writing the first rough draft of history, informing the public, and all of that) was his desire to avoid having to attend lots of boring meetings. Capitol Briefing is very happy not to be a Republican House member right now.

The House GOP held its third closed-door full Conference meeting in a week Tuesday, the latest evidence that the entire party appears anxious to emulate stereotypical meetings-and-memos business executives.

Tuesday's meeting was designed for the conservative Republican Study Committee to unveil its own agenda for what ails America, and the GOP. The "action plan" was crafted with the help of Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster/focus grouper/master of catchy slogans, and it consists of either eight points or six points, depending on which mimeographed handout you were looking at. Also available for members to peruse was the "Suburban Agenda," the handiwork of the Suburban Agenda Caucus, many of whose members are part of the moderate Tuesday Group, which is very similar to the Republican Main Street Partnership.

These documents should not be confused with the five-point action plan unveiled by Republican leaders last week. That blueprint -- or "toolbox" -- was the product of several different bodies, including the "Reasons to Believe Working Group" and the WIN project, as well as the Republican Policy Committee (which actually put together an agenda on an audio CD, recorded by a "band" of members). The Policy Committee is itself divided up into five subcommittees, one of which is named the "verities subcommittee" and is tasked with "creating an overview of the universal truths and traditional societal foundations of America's moral order." Good luck with that one.

Over at the much-maligned National Republican Congressional Committee, a new 12-member advisory group was recently put in place to help right the course. Nearly everyone in that group already sits on the existing 40-member NRCC Executive Committee which, of course, is also divided up into subcommittees.

More changes may be afoot at the NRCC. Will there be a new task force? A working group? A working group on task forces? To hear the latest, you'll have to get up early this morning to get the news from Republican leaders -- at another Conference meeting. Refreshments will be served.

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Posted at 5:30 PM ET, 05/20/2008

Oregon Senate: Something 'a Little Different'

Why is today's Oregon Senate Democratic primary so close? State House Speaker Jeff Merkley has the money and the support of the national party, so why is attorney Steve Novick apparently running even or better with him?

It could be because Novick has an unusual profile, catchy slogans and funny TV ads. "We think the people are looking for something a little different," Novick has said. "And I'm little, and I'm different."

Standing at 4'9" and with a hook for a left hand, Novick has made his appearance and stature part of his campaign. And it appears to be working, particularly in this ad that has become a hit on national political blogs and activist sites:

"U.S. Senate Candidate Steve Novick has fought corporate polluters ... but would you want to have a beer with him?" the ad's narrator asks. Novick proceeds to help out his barmate by opening a bottle of beer with his hook, prompting the narrator to add: "Steve Novick: He's always found a way to get things done."

Novick has clearly struck a chord among Oregon Democrats. Will it be enough to overcome Merkley's institutional advantages? And if Novick wins today, will his quirkiness translate well to a general election race against Sen. Gordon Smith (R)? It's not clear who would win that campaign, but it would certainly be entertaining.

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Posted at 2:54 PM ET, 05/20/2008

Colleagues React to Kennedy's Diagnosis

UPDATE 2:55 PM: Reaction to the news of Kennedy's diagnosis began to pour in as Senators emerged a few minutes ago from their weekly policy lunches. They were grim-faced at the plight of their colleague.

"It's times like this that you realize the Senate really is a family," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), adding that "anyone who knows Ted Kennedy also knows that he is a fighter. He has a work ethic like no other and has risen to every challenge he's faced - and we are confident he will rise to this one as well."

Reid said he had spoken to Kennedy's wife, Vicki, and she said her husband had "a bounce in his step" and was "in really good spirits with lots of energy." The Majority Leader said he felt confident Kennedy would recover.

Kennedy's Massachusetts colleague, Sen. John Kerry (D), said, "Ted Kennedy and the Kennedy family have faced adversity more times and more instances with more courage, more integrity and more grace than most families ever have to face." Kerry said that when he saw Kennedy over the weekend, "he was in a fighting mood."

On the Republican side, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) spoke after what he called "a somber lunch today" with his GOP colleagues. "I know I speak for all of our members when I say this is a development of great concern and sadness," McConnell said.

UPDATE 1:55 PM: According to the National Cancer Institute, "malignant gliomas are the most common primary brain tumor, accounting for more than half of the more than 18,000 primary malignant brain tumors diagnosed each year in the United States." Seizures are one of the most common symptoms of gliomas.

The 76-year-old Kennedy was initially thought to have suffered "stroke-like symptoms" when he fell ill at his family's home on Cape Cod, though doctors had since ruled out a stroke as the cause of his seizure. Kennedy has had numerous health problems in the past. Last October, he underwent surgery to unblock a severely clogged artery in his neck, which was preventing blood from reaching his brain.

His office has been putting out word that he was alert and in good sprits, joking and watching Red Sox games. He has received calls or visits from high-profile well-wishers including President Bush and Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.).

Kennedy's colleagues had been cheered by the seeming good news about his condition, though it was clear he would not return to work in the Senate this week.

ORIGINAL POST 1:27 PM: Sen. Edward Kennedy's (D-Mass.) office just announced that he has been diagnosed with a "malignant glioma," or tumor, in his brain. Such a condition is usually treated with radiation and/or chemotherapy, though the statement says decisions on his treatment have not been made yet. Kennedy has been hospitalized since suffering a seizure Saturday morning.

Here is the full statement from Kennedy's office:

**********

Statement from Dr. Lee Schwamm, Vice Chairman, Department of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, and Dr. Larry Ronan, Primary Care Physician, Massachusetts General Hospital.

"Over the course of the last several days, we've done a series of tests on Senator Kennedy to determine the cause of his seizure. He has had no further seizures, remains in good overall condition, and is up and walking around the hospital. Some of the tests we had performed were inconclusive, particularly in light of the fact that the Senator had severe narrowing of the left carotid artery and underwent surgery just 6 months ago. However, preliminary results from a biopsy of the brain identified the cause of the seizure as a malignant glioma in the left parietal lobe. The usual course of treatment includes combinations of various forms of radiation and chemotherapy. Decisions regarding the best course of treatment for Senator Kennedy will be determined after further testing and analysis. Senator Kennedy will remain at Massachusetts General Hospital for the next couple of days according to routine protocol. He remains in good spirits and full of energy."

***********

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Posted at 7:20 AM ET, 05/20/2008

Fossella Will Retire, Not Resign

UPDATE 8:45 AM: Fossella's full statement is now available online, as it has essentially replaced the home page on his official House Web site. In it, a letter to the people of the 13th district, he recalls his various career accomplishments in helping his constituents, including coping with the aftermath of 9/11. "I am extremely proud of these and other achievements and that our work has made a positive difference in the lives of so many people," Fossella says. "It is for this reason that I will continue to serve you and our community for the duration of my term, which will expire on January 3, 2009."

ORIGINAL POST:
Scandal-plagued Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.) is expected to announce Tuesday that he will not run for re-election in November in the wake of a drunk-driving arrest and revelations that he fathered a daughter with a woman who is not his wife.

The Staten Island Advance reports that Fossella will make public a statement Tuesday that says: "After a great deal of consideration, I have made the decision not to seek reelection to the United States House of Representatives this November. This choice was an extremely difficult one, balanced between my dedication to service to our great nation and the need to concentrate on healing the wounds that I have caused to my wife and family.

"Despite the personal mistakes I have made, I am touched by the outpouring of support and encouragement I have received from so many people. Their kind words and prayers during this difficult time mean more to me than I can express. And while many have urged me to run for reelection, I believe this course of action is best for my family and our community."

In addition to drunk driving charges and the personal embarassment of his family situation, Fossella faces the possibility of an investigation by the House ethics committee of official congressional trips he took with Laura Fay, a retired Air Force colonel and former military liaison on the Hill who has been revealed to be Fossella's long-running girlfriend.

House Republican leaders and election strategists have been anxiously awaiting a decision from Fossella about his future, with some members expecting or hoping that Fossella would resign from the chamber immediately. His apparent decision to serve out his term may bring more negative attention on him and distract the GOP's legislative efforts, but it also saves the party from the prospect of yet another difficult special election after Republicans have lost three in two months, and a race in New York City would be prohibitively expensive.

But Fossella's downfall still gives the GOP an electoral headache, as his Staten Island-based seat will be targeted by Democrats in the fall.

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Posted at 4:28 PM ET, 05/19/2008

Boehner, Cole Both 'Staying'

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) gamely tried to stay on message during a rough interview Sunday on "This Week With George Stephanopoulos," repeatedly emphasizing his party's efforts to bring "change" and denying suggestions that turnover in the leadership ranks is imminent (watch the interview here).

Boehner has been under fire, and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) even more so, for losing three GOP-held seats in special elections in the last two months.

"Some in your party have suggested that you should resign in the wake of these special election losses. Will you?" asked Stephanopoulos.

After explaining that he has a long record as a reformer on the Hill, Boehner said, "I know what needs to be done. ... I'm staying."

As for Cole, Boehner said, "Tom and I had a very good meeting on Friday. ... Frank and constructive and positive."

"So he's staying as well?" Stephanopoulos asked.

"He's staying," Boehner said.

It has been clear since last week that Cole was not on his way out the door (at the moment, anyway). But it still must have been nice for Cole and his allies to hear Boehner say it on national television.

As for Boehner himself, Stephanopoulos may well be right that "some" in the GOP have suggested he should resign. But those dissident ranks include hardly any members of Congress. There is very little sentiment among House Republicans to actually get rid of Boehner now. What would be the point? Who would take over, and what could they do in six months to really change the party's dismal electoral equation?

Now, if the party loses a slew of seats in November, that could well prompt a challenge to Boehner and perhaps Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). But the cliche about not changing horses mid-stream appears applicable here, even if the GOP horse does appear to be trailing badly at the moment.

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Posted at 2:22 PM ET, 05/19/2008

For Obama, Byrd in Hand

Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) endorsed Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) for the Democratic presidential nomination today, calling Obama "a shining young statesman, who possesses the personal temperament and courage necessary to extricate our country from this costly misadventure in Iraq."

In addition to fueling Obama's momentum, this is primarily interesting for two reasons:

1) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) beat Obama in West Virginia just last week by a whopping 41 points. Some superdelegates who were on the sidelines made a point of saying they would respect the choice of their constituents. Byrd, obviously, went the other way. He's 90 years old and not on the ballot again until 2012, so there wasn't much for him to lose here anyway.

2) Byrd has in recent months battled speculation that he's no longer capable of doing his job as Senate Appropriations Committee chairman because of his age and ongoing health problems. In addition to getting back in the news with this endorsement, Byrd will also see his handiwork -- the Iraq supplemental bill -- on the Senate floor this week. The nonagenarian handled the committee's markup of the bill himself last week. Will he play a big role in shepherding the bill on the floor? Or will another member of the Appropriations panel shoulder the load? Either way, it's shaping up to be a momentous week for the West Virginian.

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