![[Iowa map]](http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2005/12/05/GR2005120501681.gif)
Dems Expect to Gain a 'Whole Bunch of Seats'
The two Democratic congressional campaign chiefs made clear today that they expect the party to gain significant ground in both the House and Senate on Election Day, paving the way for Democrats to team up with a potential President Barack Obama next year to make fundamental public policy changes.
In a press briefing, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) exuded confidence, bordering on cockiness, that their respective organizations were on the march to victory in November.
"We expect to pick up a whole bunch of seats," Schumer said. "I know you'll ask me, 'Can we get to 60?' I'd say it's very difficult, given the math, but not out of the question. I would have said the same thing two years ago if you would have asked me, 'Can you get six seats in the Senate?' 100 days before the election. ... We do expect to pick up a significant number of seats."
Schumer allowed that the news wasn't all good, but even the supposedly negative side of the ledger could actually be seen as a plus for Democrats.
"The bad news is ... this is the reddest map in a very long time," Schumer said, pointing out that most of the seats Democrats are trying to pick up are in GOP-favored regions like the Deep South, the Great Plains and the Mountain West. Only in Maine, Minnesota and Oregon are Democrats fighting in real blue states. Of course, Democrats are playing in enemy territory precisely because so many GOP-held seats are in danger.
Schumer helpfully provided a taxonomy for breaking down the current slate of Senate races, assigning 16 of them to three specific categories -- 1) Democrats are currently ahead; 2) The two sides are even or close; and 3) Democrats can win if the wind is at their backs. Schumer's three tiers:
1) Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska
2) Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina
3) Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Georgia
Schumer's list, particularly in the third category, includes some real reaches for Democrats. Van Hollen echoed that theme. "The news is very positive, and yet at the same time we are moving into redder territory than we ever have before," he said.
Why will Democrats win? Schumer advanced a theory that this is a "tectonic plate election," as 1932 and 1980 were, where voters aren't just responding to one particular event or circumstance but have fundamentally altered their views of what they want from the government and elected officials. Schumer argued that voters want a "stronger government" and are more focused on Democratic issues like the economy and health care than GOP issues like national security and family values.
And if Democrats do make big gains in the House and Senate, and Barack Obama captures the White House, what kind of changes can voters expect from a government fully-controlled by Democrats? Schumer predicted that under that scenario, we would see fewer troops in Iraq, lower gas prices and a road to recovery from the housing crisis.
As he has in the past, Van Hollen warned against "irrational exuberance" on the part of his fellow Democrats, and cautioned that outside groups like Freedom's Watch could help the GOP compensate for the National Republican Congressional Committee's relative lack of cash. Still, Van Hollen emphasized that "the big story is that we're in offense."
In the 2006 cycle, Van Hollen said, the DCCC spent $70 million on 47 House races, 40 of which where Democrats were on offense and just seven on defense. This cycle, Van Hollen estimated that as many as 75 seats were in play, with Democrats on offense in roughly two-thirds of them.
"We will pick up seats in the next election," Van Hollen predicted. "Even our colleagues on the other side recognize that."
By Ben Pershing |
July 23, 2008; 4:14 PM ET
2008 Campaign
,
Dem. Leaders
Previous: Bush and GOP At Odds...Again |
Next: A Somber Anniversary
Posted by: mike | July 23, 2008 4:32 PM
Of course the GOP will be sharing its own brand of wisdom.
George W Bush --- Addiction Did Not Damage My Brain (No Really)
Dick Cheney --- 17% Approval: It's The New Mandate!
Mike "Brownie" Brown --- It Was Just Black People Drowning So Whats The Big Deal?
Larry Craig --- Why I Have Sex In Bathrooms: The GOP And Sexual Diversity
Newt Gingrich --- Boink Your Mistress While Your Wife Dies Of Cancer.
George Alan --- Some Of My Best Friends Are Macacas
John McCain ---Look Mommy I Made A Google!
Posted by: Mark | July 23, 2008 4:56 PM
You forgot:
Donald Rumsfeld - "There are known-unknowns, and unknown-unknowns...ah screw it, let's just blow a bunch of sh!t up!
Posted by: Chris | July 23, 2008 7:12 PM
a reverse Reagan Revolution.
Posted by: angriestdogintheworld | July 23, 2008 9:32 PM
This is from a USAF friend in Afghanistan:
Hello everyone,
As you know I am not a very political person. I just wanted to pass along that Senator Obama came to Bagram Afghanistan for about an hour on his visit to ' The War Zone'. I wanted to share with you what happened.
He got off the plane and got into a bullet proof vehicle, got to the area to meet with the Major General (2 Star) who is the commander here at Bagram.
As the Soldiers where lined up to shake his hand, he blew them off and didn't say a word as he went into the conference room to meet the General. As he finished, the vehicles took him to the ClamShell (pretty much a big top tent that military personnel can play basketball or work out in with weights) so he could take his publicity pictures playing basketball. He again shunned the opportunity to talk to Soldiers to thank them for their service.
So really he was just here to make a showing for the Americans back home that he is their candidate for President. I think that if you are going to make an effort to come all the way over here you would thank those that are providing the freedom that they are providing for you.
I swear we got more thanks from the NBA Basketball Players or the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders than from one of the Senators, who wants to be the President of the United States . I just don't understand how anyone would want him to be our Commander-and-Chief. It was almost that he was scared to be around those that provide the freedom for him and our great country.
If this is blunt and to the point I am sorry but I wanted you all to know what kind of caliber of person he really is. What you see in the news is all fake.
In service,
CPT J
Bagram, Afghanistan
Posted by: CPT J's Friend | July 23, 2008 10:39 PM
CPT J
Bagram, Afghanistan
I hope to hell you're not a typical example of our fighting men. You're a fraud. Hello everyone, as you know I'm not a very political person....LOL...go away you little pathetic troll.
Posted by: Arny | July 24, 2008 2:53 AM
Hello everyone, since I'm famous you all realize I'm not a political person but I just want to let you all know what happened when John McCain came to visit us in the Green Zone in Baghdad.
We were so happy to provide him his freedom, we gave him an extra helping. He promised us that we'll be able to stay in Iraq for as long as we want, maybe even longer, he said that the US under his administration would always have an acute need for high velocity bullet decelerators.
Then he sat around with us at the mess hall and called his wife names. What a great guy. He looks just like my grandfather (after he'd been dead a couple of days). The last thing I made up for your enjoyment is that John McCain shook everyones hand when he was here, therefor he should be president.
Gotta go, the Nazis are invading Iwo Jima
Posted by: PVT Q | July 24, 2008 10:06 AM
CPT J
I'm with Amy.
Puhleeze. How dumb do you think we are?
Troll! Pathetic. You overdid it. Have to be a bit more subtle if you want to get your lies swallowed..
Even if Obama did one or two things wrong or not to your UMMMM standards?? Maybe one or two things. Noone's perfect.
but - hey - everything???
Your nose is growing!!!
Posted by: caroline | July 24, 2008 10:12 AM
CPT J, not sure if you really are in the military or not, but
your story sounds a little suspect. First there is no such place as Bagram, Afghanistan.
It's actually Bagram AFB, which is in Afghanistan, I served there in 2002.
Also as a person who served the Army for 30 years I know how the Army works.
When a VIP comes in, it's not up to them who they see and whether or not they get to
mingle with the troops it's usually up to the senior Commander in the area, not to mention I can't imagine any politician with all that press around refusing to do anything in regards to the troops. You say you are not a political person, but it's obvious that your post was a direct attempt to disparage Senator Obama,
Posted by: James | July 24, 2008 11:18 AM
So-called cptj ignores the theme of this thread to vent what is probably a canned Republican diatribe. On the expectations of Democrats, write-off Texas as a possible gain for US Senate. Congressman Rick Noriega, an officer in the State Guard, is running against a well-Coifed reactionary Republican and has more than an up-hill fight. The Austin American-Statesman routinely buries Noriega stories, when it runs them at all, has all but endorsed the right-wing incumbent--and that in one of the few Blue areas of Texas. Of course, the newspaper is owned by the Cox enterprises of Atlanta, so it's not really a Texas product. Perhaps those critical Senate seats will be picked up elsewhere.
Posted by: texun | July 24, 2008 11:19 AM
Thanks for getting things back on track, texun.
Re: the Senate, Oklahoma is a real reach for the Dems, and so is Texas. Fun to think about, but more likely is a Senate pick-up of 7 or 8, and another 30 in the House. It will give the Dems a lot more leeway, but it won't be cloture-proof, so the GOP can still make trouble.
Even with everything seeming to go their way, the Dems need to knock off the cockiness stuff. These things can blow up in their faces if they get too full of themselves. Just ask Thomas Dewey.
Posted by: Waiting For Godot | July 24, 2008 1:18 PM
schumer and van hollen can thank political guru and hit man--karl rove-- for such a PEACHY outlook for dems.
(think it's possible a "governing majority" karl???)
http://www.annistonstar.com/showcase/2008/as-open-0518-mricks-8e18a0747.htm
Posted by: jeff | July 24, 2008 4:56 PM
Democrats will likely benefit from Bob Barr the way the GOP got a boost from Nader in 2000.
Bring in Instant Runoff Voting!
Posted by: PragmaticallyPolitical | July 24, 2008 5:42 PM
They'll benefit from Bob Barr. Instant Runoff Voting needs to happen now to more accurately allow and represent voters' interests and preferences.
Read about it at:
http://pragmaticallypolitical.blogivists.com/
Posted by: Mike | July 24, 2008 5:44 PM
No incumbents, Republican or Democrat, have safe seats this year. The message is drill, drill, drill, and those who don't get it will be voted out of office.
Posted by: Truthfully | July 24, 2008 6:29 PM
Two things.
First, intersting list that Sen. Shumer laid out for you but I am disagreeing with putting Georgia even on the list. I know he thinks that Obama may be able to help carry the African American population over into voting for the Democrat but I think this may be a flaw in the reasoning. Georgia doesn't even have a candidate yet on Dems side. A runoff race in August between Vernon Jones and Jim Martin will decide it and the race is going to be close. If the Dems go with Jones, they probably will have a problem because he is "Atlanta" all the way and the rest of the state will not be as receptive to him. Plus he has some baggage. You may see some cross voting with Chambliss keeping his seat if Jones is nominated.
Second, the guy who claims to be in Afghanistan clearly does not understand security protocol. The last time a high ranking official went to Afghanistan, an assasination plot had been floated around. Part of the reason Obama had to keep moving was to keep him safe.
Posted by: Kristi | July 24, 2008 7:49 PM
I will be surprised if the dems pick up any number of seats even close to what their clownish insipid "leadership" crows about. Though if they do it won't open the door to your closets so don't think your Marxist stifling bureaucracy will see the light of day. As for the comments made in reply to the military person(real or not) they only serve to show your true feelings for the troops. I laugh every time I read this rag and the comments posted here, Talk about out of touch. Beware Lemmings the cliff approaches and soon we'll watch you drown, while your pied piper stands and laughs for we know he truly could not care less. He is just as self serving as the rest of you and comes off as ambitious and egocentric. Us regular folks aren't fooled. I eagerly await your continuing impotence even with the reins of the country. I have never met a liberal who would even admit they hold those views louder than a conspiratorial whisper, but then I'm not in some insular unreality like New York or Washington as I suppose you must have somewhere to vent your hatred for America and American values out loud.
Posted by: Alan | July 24, 2008 8:15 PM
"It's been a long time coming,
It's gonna be a long time gone".
Poor, poor Republicans. Payback is a byotch.
How about a nice, refreshing waterboarding, dear Republican friends?
Dear Leader says it is NOT torture, so just lie back, relax, and enjoy it ...
And tell Dear Leader he isn't going to make any money giving speeches.
If he speaks in America, there will be blood in the streets, guaranteed.
I'm not saying WHOSE blood, mind you ;-)
If he speaks overseas, he risks arrest for war crimes.
Bush deserves to die in a prison cell in The Hague, or on the gallows in Baghdad
It would be prudent for Bush to slither back to Crawford, TX, and hide in his fuehrerbunker with his vodka and cocaine.
Or Paraguay, unless the new government there starts extraditing war criminals.
It's PAYBACK TIME !!!!!!
Posted by: Ralph | July 24, 2008 11:09 PM
Obama's gonna win. The House and Senate are going overwhelmingly Democratic. Get used to it. Happy Days are here again, happy days are here again. Begone Bush and friends, begone! John McCain, you are stooge and I think you know it. I am saddened by your lot in life. Good luck in your next life.
Posted by: Jesus | July 25, 2008 3:46 PM
Here is what snopes has to say about CPT J's report.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/afghanistan.asp
But then again, it seems to be SOP for right wing detractors to spread innuendo, or in this case bald faced lies, on the front page and bury the retraction on page 3.
Posted by: Larry | July 25, 2008 10:07 PM
Suicide...Let us talk about it. It's painless but the hell you b leave behind is unforgivable people who try or do commit suicide are cowards.
Didn't John McCayne try to commit suicide at the infamous "Hanoi Hilton" and if he suffered so much from the Viet Nam War why would he want to subject thousands of soldiers to the same thing now? How can he hold in such hate for so long?
Posted by: Luis | July 27, 2008 7:05 PM
Dream on Democrats! Dream On! As the truth
is His Arrogance Empty Suit Democrat Messiah Mullah Barack Hussein Obama will
cost you losers,The White House and Your
Majority in Congress,so when will you damn
fool Democrats wake up and stop running
these endless losers,like Obama,Kerry,Gore,
Clinton,Dukasis,and Carter? You damn sure
will not get this Independents vote in
2008 you losers! NOBAMA 2008
Posted by: Sherry Kay | July 28, 2008 8:44 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
Following is a preliminary list of keynote speakers at the Democratic convention and topics (updated 7/23/2008)
Marion Barry --- Drug Abuse
Rep. Denny Kucinich --- How to garner 1 % of the vote in every primary entered
John Edwards --- Ambulance Chasing
Mayor Ray Nagin --- Emergency Evacuation Preparations
Sen. Chrissy Dodd --- Obtaining Countrywide Loans
Sen. Chucky Schumer --- How to initiate a run on a Bank
James McGreevey --- Gay Rights
Jesse Jackson --- Marital Fidelity and Castration
Al Sharpton --- Race Relations
Al "Bore" Gore --- Snow Removal
Louis Farrakhan --- Muslims in America and Muslim in the White House