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Vegas Chooses Michigan!!!!!!!!!!!

Big day in Bogland.

1) We appear to have gotten our first blog comment from a Nats prospect. (Or at least someone claiming to be a Nats prospect. Please reassure the possibly real Collin that we need more of these antics, not less.)

2) We'll debut our area top 25 hoops poll in about three hours. (And really, it needs a snappy name. Non-snappy suggestions include DC Metroplex DI Poll, DC College Hoops Poll, Top 10 Locals and Narrowly Defined Mid-Atlantic Hoops Poll. We need something better.

3) Most importantly, Vegas gives us its final answer to the question: Who deserves to play in the national championship game.

This situation is exactly why I turned to Vegas so many months ago. The BCS uses former coaches and current coaches and computer programmers and various other people of undetermined wisdom to make the most important decision of the college football season. My theory was that, if we need to put this in human hands, let's give it to the unquestioned smartest people in college football, people whose livelihoods depend on them purging all bias from their minds and determining objective superiority: the oddsmakers.

Some people, including Brian at mgoblog, said loudly that I was wrong. And now, in the most delicious of all possible ironies, an apoplectic Brian is using Vegas as justification that Michigan is being robbed!!!!!! I told you Brian!!!!!! You should have listened to me!!!! Florida played a brutal schedule and only lost once. Michigan's only loss was on the road against the unquestioned No. 1 team in the country. We could never decide which team is more deserving, so instead we should take the team that is objectively judged to be superior by the smartest people in the land. That team is Michigan.

I'll talk to Vegas later for their thoughts on the issue, but for now, here is the final regular season Oddsmakers Top 25. I haven't printed the numerical rankings in the past, because they don't mean anything to me, but for the record Ohio State is given 110.8 points, Michigan is given 105.0 points, Florida is given 102.0 points and Southern Cal 101.5. So the battle for second wasn't even that close.

BCS rankings in parentheses. And I might take the rest of the day off to bask in the most delicious of all possible ironies.

1. Ohio State (1)
2. Michigan (3)
3. Florida (2)
4. Southern Ca (5)
5. LSU (4)
6. Louisville (6)
7. Oklahoma (10)
8. Texas (19)
9. Notre Dame (11)
10. Wisconsin (7)
11t. West Virginia (13)
11t. California (18)
13. BYU (20)
14. Virginia Tech (15)
15. Arkansas (12)
16t. Boise State (8)
16t. South Carolina (NR)
18. Tennessee (17)
19t. Nebraska (23)
19t. UCLA (25)
21. TCU (NR)
22. Rutgers (16)
23t. Oregon (NR)
23t. Clemson (NR)
23t. Arizona State (NR)

Unranked by Vegas: Auburn (ninth in BCS), Wake Forest (14th), Texas A&M (21st), Oregon State (22nd), Boston College (24th).

By Dan Steinberg |  December 4, 2006; 9:46 AM ET  | Category:  College Basketball , College Football , Nats
Previous: What You Need to Know | Next: Inaugural Local Top 11 Hoops Poll


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Comments

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the pollsters know Michigan is better.

the pollsters bias is in not wanting a rematch game, which put Florida over the top.

Posted by: pete | December 4, 2006 10:04 AM

Michigan may be the second best team in college but they already lost to Ohio State. If they played again and lost again, then there would be an uproar about Florida should have played. Michigan had their shot. If they played again they might crush Ohio State but they had their shot. You have Arkansas and Boise State too low! South Carolina and BYU too high! You think BYU is better than Tennesse, Rutgers, and Nebraska NO WAY!

Posted by: Steve | December 4, 2006 10:18 AM

Florida is acting like they won something. We'll see how they feel about it AFTER the game. I think they're going to get buried.

Posted by: Bernie | December 4, 2006 10:37 AM

I don't understand why everyone keeps saying Michigan had their shot. That doesn't matter, the BCS is supposed to be the 2 best teams in the country. Michigan on a neutral field is going to be the favorite, they should be in this game. This is a joke Florida is going, and the above Vegas rankings only reinforces it.

Posted by: Patrick | December 4, 2006 10:56 AM

Michigan did have their shot, I hate the BCS, but FL had the tougher schedule and is in a tougher conference, they are not the better team. Michigan may have lost to number 1 but that doesnt mean they are the better team, look at the rest of their schedule. FL deserves it, Michigan would not crush Ohio State on neutral ground, the rivalry belongs in the midwest and not on neutral ground anyway. Go Bucks

Posted by: OH | December 4, 2006 11:03 AM

How about "The 'Hood College Basketball Poll" ??

Posted by: Djlethal01 | December 4, 2006 11:33 AM

DUH. Hello Up North.
How many times must it be said that

YOU LOST TO OHIO STATE!!!

One point or fifty, it's done. Quit whining.

Have fun with your Trojans.

Posted by: ED SCHLAKER | December 4, 2006 11:33 AM

Every year it's exactly the same - an argument as to who should play for the national championship. Wilbon was right this morning - if FL was snubbed then the entire SEC would be screaming for a playoff system.

Posted by: jhorstma | December 4, 2006 11:33 AM

Well it is settled Florida is playing Ohio. Now if Florida wins or loses by 3 it will be considered a success...If they get beat badly by Ohio the system needs an overhaul and some people removed! It is all up to Florida now!

Posted by: ralphks | December 4, 2006 11:50 AM

A team that doesn't win THEIR conference should NEVER play for the National Championship. Michigan had a great season, but they didn't win ANYTHING!

Posted by: Brett, Germantown, MD | December 4, 2006 12:28 PM

To change the subject a little bit - my theory on the fact that Vegas has it in for BC is as follows:

Vegas is still bitter about the gambling scandal there in '98, I believe. The best part about the scandal is that it was run from the bedroom I lived in in '02, my senior year. That was a fun story to hear at a football tailgate.

P.S. Even as a BC grad, I think Vegas is 100% dead on about BC, though they will beat Navy to continue their streak of performing well against mediocre teams in lame-ass bowl games every year.

Posted by: tmc | December 4, 2006 12:33 PM

The bookies in Las Vegas, as everywhere, don't care about who is the better team; there only concern is to ensure that the amount of money bet is equal on both sides.

Steve

Posted by: Steven Gilson | December 4, 2006 12:40 PM

The irony gets more delicous than that. Florida's ONLY national championship was in 1996 when they were... guess what??? granted a REMATCH against Florida State, who had beaten them once already that season. Yeah, oh, the irony.

Posted by: Darkie | December 4, 2006 12:41 PM

How does who you play determine if you are a better team?? You look as skill positions as well as units such as OL and DL, defensive secondary and maybe even depth. My guess is Vegas doesn't determine your worth by your schedule. Go Buckeyes!!!

Posted by: Brian | December 4, 2006 12:52 PM

If Florida barely beats OSU on a neutral field it will be impossible to know who is better, Florida or Michigan. Since were're talking about Vegas, let's use statistics, which proves that 3 points out of 81 scored is within the benefit of home field advantage.

I'd love a 4 team play-off. If you aren't in the top 4 then you certainly aren't #1. Make the 2 playoff games bowl games on NY day, with the championship a week later.

This, like all things sports, was 100% about money - more people will watch a SEC team compared to two Big 10 teams.

I think it is ironic that last time Florida won a national championship it was in a rematch against FSU in '98. Florida had lost to FSU in the regular season.

Posted by: NJ, Ann Arbor | December 4, 2006 01:03 PM

The Championship game should have the best two teams playing each other. That's not going to happen this year. Michigan was totally robbed. Florida can't beat either one of the BigTen teams. That big sigh of relief you heard yesterday came from Columbus,OH

Posted by: Chico | December 4, 2006 01:05 PM

Re: Item #2

I think the name you're looking for is the "Regional Bias Poll," which is both an accurate descripter and a sideways tribute to one of the best local college players we've ever seen around here.

Posted by: DevilGrad | December 4, 2006 01:23 PM

People keep saying "give Michigan a chance on a neutral field yadda yadda yadda..." Well, I've got news for you folks. This ain't gonna be a neutral field for any opponent of OSU because Buckeyes have had 2 weeks to snatch up all of the tickets except for the small amount allocated to the opponent.

Posted by: DC-Buckeye | December 4, 2006 01:29 PM

Question: Who is the number 2 team in college football?

Answer: Michigan - duh

Posted by: debby | December 4, 2006 01:48 PM

It wouldn't matter if the earth reached up and swallowed Florida and Arkansas. The pollsters still would have found a way to vault somebody, anybody, Little Sisters of the Poor, whoever they could find to put ahead of Michigan. Fact is the national championship game has already been played between the two best teams in the land, and now Florida will get to discover just how good Ohio State really is.

This should make everyone really mad: we don't need a playoff or a BCS. Go back to the old bowl system and let half the teams win their last game. Would a playoff system be fair? Hardly. Try this: pick the top 4, 8, or 16 teams. Nobody else should be allowed to play for it. Then send them to a single elimination tournament and listen to how everybody whines the same as they do for hoops. The matchups aren't fair! Our star player got hurt! They had an easy bracket! All the good teams lost in their bracket! We got tired/hurt/wimpy because we had to play tough teams while they got it easy!

You want fair? Round robin is fair, and it'll never happen. So sit back and enjoy watching Ohio State throttle Florida (Leak always throws an interception, so OSU starts +1 in the turnover column) and Michigan beat suddenly mortal USC. Then you'll see that 1 vs. 2 was already played, and the home team won by 3 (which is about what Vegas gives for home field).

Posted by: Da Soos | December 4, 2006 01:49 PM

Note to Michigan fans. Stop yer whinin. If you wanted to play for the Nat'l. Championship ya shoulda beat OSU in Columbus when you had the chance. As much as I love a Big 10 matchup the Nat'l. Championship should come down to the best two conference champions. The BCS got it right with Florida. The Big 10 and the SEC were the two best conferences this season. A matchup of the two conference champs is what college footballl fans want to see. No one wants to see another Michigan/OSU game outside of Ann Arbor.

Posted by: | December 4, 2006 01:53 PM

No one wants to see another Michigan/OSU game outside of ann Arbor? I'm pretty sure no one in Columbus wanted to see it either, for different reasons.

Posted by: Chico | December 4, 2006 02:14 PM

All these attacks against Michigan! We only lost by 3 points on a new field! Remember we played OSU on a NEW FIELD IN COLUMBUS AND ONLY LOST BY 3. Florida is okay they have a nice program but nothing like Michigan. Michigan was robbed period, no games for two weeks and we see all the other teams play out there season while Michigan is finished. They need too do some re-constructing of the BCS or we will have this problem every year and then the fans will lose interest!

Posted by: Mazin Blue Fan | December 4, 2006 02:23 PM

Stop bringing up conference champs. BCS says best 2 teams, period. If Florida thinks their so good, why isn't that politicing coach asking for a game next year. I bet the Wolverines would accomodate him.

Posted by: MTY | December 4, 2006 02:30 PM

Michigan did get screwed. Yeah Florida had a harder schedule, but they we're behind Michigan for 7 weeks. Florida narrowly beat Arkansas, what they were supposed to do. Florida did nothing extraordinary so how do you jump over a team. Anyone who watched the Michigan Ohio State game could see they were the top twqo teams in the nation.The BCS's job is to match the 2 best teams.

Posted by: Steve | December 4, 2006 03:01 PM

Either way one team was going to get the shaft by the BCS. This is due to the lack of uniformity in college football today. Florida had 2 chances to impress the BCS voters after Michigan played its final game, which in my mind is why the Gators got the nod over the Wolverines. (Notice Michigan was still #2 in the rankings immediately after their loss)
Michigan ended up being hurt two ways by its conference. First the Big 10 was so top heavy that it eliminated any parity whatsoever. Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin lost a combined 2 games out of 24 in conference play (Wisconsin to Michigan and Michigan to Ohio State). No 3 teams in the SEC can add up to the winning percentage of those three Big 10 teams. What helped lead to Michigan's downfall was the fact that the rest of the conference pretty much stunk.
The second way the Big 10 hurt the Wolverines was the fact Michigan plays in a conference with no Conference Championship. While Florida had a nice win over a good Arkansas team in a pro-Florida Georgia Dome, the Wolverines were at home watching. The current structure of the Big 10 hurts its teams in bids for BCS bowls.
The NFL has tiebreakers for every minute detail in choosing who makes and the seeding of the playoffs, while college football is one complete mess. The NCAA is fantastic at acting like a despotic dictator so why does it not wield that power and create uniformity in college football. A playoff is not necessarily the answer due to the fact that instead of arguing who is #2 and #3 we would just end up arguing who is #4 and #5. The bottom line is no solution is in sight because the BCS is so lucrative to all the interested parties except one, the fans. As long as money is the object in the marketing of these amateur athletes, than every year a college town will feel like Ann Arbor feels right now.

Posted by: Pete, Huntington WV | December 4, 2006 03:02 PM

The coment about Florida and Florida State rematch is ironic. But realize that it was out of confrence and alot of other things had to happen (remember Texas). If I were a coach and saw what happened 2 years ago I think I would have enough sense to stand up and "politic" for my team. Carr new it was up in the air and did nothing. Final though, how can coaches vote when they (Meyer and Tressel) say they have bairly seen the other play? There's the problem, not a coach standing up for the program.

Posted by: football fan | December 4, 2006 03:09 PM

Michigan does not go thorugh the SEC with only 2 losses. Florida was the correct choice - Michigan did not impress me when they "demolished" Ball State at home, unimpressive win against Northwestern, Penn State, and beating up on an extremely overated Notre Dame.

The fact that ND got clobbered by USC also affected the Wolverines BCS Title shot. Their 2 main cards to justify going to AZ was their win over ND and a close loss to Ohio State. Clearly, ND isn't really as good as everyone thought.

You want irony? The last time the National Championship Game was in Arizona, a team who had no chance whatsoever against Miami won the game, that was Ohio State.

Dont overlook the Gators. They play ugly, and they dont win with style, but tell me, who wins with style in the SEC? No one.


I expect LSU to run over ND and have Florida and Ohio State play an extremely close game. This Florida team is better than the Texas team Ohio State played, better than Michigan and the SEC overall is way better than the Big 10. Florida will be ready to play.

Having said all of that, the BCS system is garbage!

Posted by: Vic | December 4, 2006 03:23 PM

The game OSU-Mich game was not as close as the score. Except for the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes, Mich was climbing out of deficits of either 11 points or 14 points the whole game. Plus, OSU turned over three times and Michigan STILL couldn't pull it out? Give me a break.

Posted by: DC-Buckeye | December 4, 2006 03:23 PM

oh yeah, and watch USC beat up on Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

Posted by: Vic | December 4, 2006 03:27 PM

It's more of a crime that Wisconsin didn't even get to participate in the BCS. There only loss was to Michigan in Michigan on the first Big 10 game of the year with a new coach.

Posted by: Jess | December 4, 2006 03:48 PM

Look, I'm not here to make the case for Michigan. They did have a shot at OSU and lost. However, Florida fan needs to get off of the stop whining stuff. I've never seen somebody whine as much as Urban Meyer has over the last two weeks leading up to the BCS selection. So, coach Meyer, shut up now and get ready because as a Michigan fan I've seen OSU a few times this year and I watched that Florida game against a vastly overrated Arkansas team and I can tell you this. OSU is going to run you off the field and that will be the last we wiil have to hear about the vast SEC superiority(well, at least until next year when the SEC whining starts again).

Posted by: Steve | December 4, 2006 04:49 PM

Sat, Sep 2 Northern Illinois W 35-12 --
Sat, Sep 9 at (2) Texas W 24-7 --
Sat, Sep 16 Cincinnati W 37-7 --
Sat, Sep 23 (24) Penn State W 28-6 --
Sat, Sep 30 at (13) Iowa W 38-17 --
Sat, Oct 7 Bowling Green W 35-7 --
Sat, Oct 14 at Michigan State W 38-7 --
Sat, Oct 21 Indiana W 44-3 --
Sat, Oct 28 Minnesota W 44-0 --
Sat, Nov 4 at Illinois W 17-10 --
Sat, Nov 11 at Northwestern W 54-10 --
Sat, Nov 18 (2) Michigan W 42-39 --


ohio state only played 2 good teams all year. a texas team that lost to kansas state and texas a&m and michigan. no other result jumps out to me as proving that ohio state will "demolish" florida by merely stepping on the field.

the sec schedule makes everyone looks bad. the big 10 schdule is made for powerhouses to run up the score. ooo . . .they scored 54 on northwestern, be afraid, be very afraaaaaiiiidd!!!!

it will be a close game. ohio state has not met a team with the defense that florida will bring.

Posted by: Vic | December 4, 2006 05:05 PM

Florida got into the National Championship because:

1. Urban Meyer cried, while Lloyd Carr kept his mouth shut because he would only be stating what everyone else knew, the BCS is flawed. Urban next time man up and don't act like a 2 year old.

2. Most people didn't want to see a rematch.

3. People some how think in order to make it to the national championship you must win your division. Well lets say 6 SEC teams are ranked 1-6 and Ohio State is ranked 7th, does that mean Ohio State is the second best team in the Nation? The SEC needs to shut up.

Posted by: Will | December 4, 2006 05:30 PM

Diehard Buckeye fan. That said, I don't expect Florida to get trounced; it'll be close. 51 days off is killer. That it's even considered part of the same season is nearly ludicrous.

Michigan just wasn't as good as some people say. No one fielded an amazing team this year, not even OSU. If it weren't for the Michigan bowl jinx, I think they'd beat up on USC bad.

Posted by: NY Buckeye | December 4, 2006 05:43 PM

Hey, UM had their chance and the National Championship was settled that day. Now for a meaningless exhibition. Super Whiner at UF is an idiot - - does he really think Arkansas should have been chosen over UM if Ark had won that game? What a schmucko! Admission: UM would probably win a rematch with OSU, lol, but it aint gonna happen, LOLOL.

Posted by: Ol' Buck | December 4, 2006 08:31 PM

Everyone keeps saying that "A team that doesn't win THEIR conference should NEVER play for the National Championship". If Michigan had lost to Wisconsin, then Ohio State wouldn't have won the Big Ten, if that were the case would anyone say that Ohio State did't deserve to play for the championship? I don't think so.

Posted by: Dave | December 4, 2006 09:16 PM

If USC had won last weekend as expected would Florida have moved past Michigan into the #3 spot? Hell no! The only reason anyone considered leapfrogging them over Michigan was to avoid a rematch. Yes, the SEC was slightly better top to bottom than the Big Ten this year. That's not Michigan's fault. Michigan was better than any team in either conference except Ohio State. If the point of the B(C)S system is to match the two best teams in the country, it has failed utterly. If you bother to watch the impending debacle of Jan. 8, as the score grows ever more lopsided in favor of OSU, think back to the UM-OSU classic of Nov. 18 and mourn the game you're missing.

Posted by: 24-12(69) | December 4, 2006 10:43 PM

I dont see why anybody besides florida wouldnt want to see a michigan/ohio state rematch. Its one of, if not the best rivalry in college football.

Posted by: Andy | December 5, 2006 12:32 AM

No one outside Michigan and Ohio cares about the Wolverines-Buckeyes game - just like no one outside Texas and Oklahoma cares about the Red River Shoot Out, nor anyone outside South Bend and So. Cal cares about ND-USC. etc. etc. etc.

Michigan never had the lead after the 1st quarter, it wasnt like they were going back and forth all game long with leads being changed constantly.

Michigan better stop whinning and concentrate on USC - chances are they will lose that game.

Posted by: Vic | December 5, 2006 10:52 AM

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;_ylt=AjlHfhXf5QOR3BQ02HEfJ9wcvrYF?slug=ap-bcs-whyflorida2ndld-writethru&prov=ap&type=lgns

Posted by: 761-091 | December 5, 2006 10:54 AM

"Ohio state has not met a team with the defense that florida will bring."

by Vic.

I'll let this comment stand on its own.

Let's call the matchup the GWB Bowl since the residents of those states are most responsible for GWB.

Posted by: | December 5, 2006 02:46 PM

And Vic, nobody outside the Confederacy is buying the SEC is better hype. The fact is, your squad lost to a team that can't run OR throw.

Posted by: | December 5, 2006 02:47 PM

Florida "had their shot" and lost to Auburn!

Losing to a lower ranked team is better than losing to the number 1 ranked team all year? You people are delusional. Michigan was ranked above Florida and politics had them jump in front on the last day, period.

Add quite this stupid nit picking on this or that point in a game. That is meaningless. We could sit here and present a dozen ways that Florida could have been 8-3.

The 2 best teams for the last several weeks, the BCS criteria, are not playing for the NC due to every talking point under the sun except this, who are the best 2 teams. Period end of discussion and this is not whinning.

Strap it on and get ready for USC and Go BLue!

Posted by: Charles | December 5, 2006 07:43 PM

Michigan was robbed! But the final outcome will be when Ohio State has Gator meat for dinner.

How can anyone think this match up of OSU vs. FLA is a good match up?

Tressel was scared to face Michigan on a neutral field. That is why he did not vote. Think about it.

Michigan will beat USC and Michigan will embarass Ohio State next November as pay back!

Posted by: Rexx | December 5, 2006 10:40 PM

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