This Week's Vegas Oddsmakers' Top 25
Fans of lightly regarded teams who keep sending me hate mail, I don't make these rankings. These are the ineffable wisdom of Nevada Oddsmakers, through the fingers of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Don't hate the punter, hate the Gambling Industry.
Biggest frauds, according to Vegas: Louisville is ranked 11 spots too high by the AP. Clemson is ranked 10 spots too high. Texas A&M is ranked nine spots too high. Kentucky is ranked eight spots too high. Virginia Tech is ranked five spots too high.
Biggest sleepers, according to Vegas: Florida State is ranked 14 spots too low by the AP. Arizona State is ranked 13 spots too low. Missouri is ranked 10 spots too low. Arkansas is ranked eight spots too low. Nebraska is ranked seven spots too low. UCLA and Georgia Tech, coming off disastrous performances that swayed weak-minded AP voters, are ranked six spots too low.
Vegas looked smart when: Florida State, snubbed by the AP but beloved by Vegas, got a fairly nice road win at Colorado. Clemson, which Vegas has been cool on, struggled didn't crush a I-AA Football League Championship club. Vegas darling Missouri won handily, as did Vegas darling Arizona State. Again, Wisconsin struggled against a team Wisconsin should not struggle against.
Vegas looked dumb when: Vegas fave Nebraska didn't do much with Southern Cal; heck with that, Vegas says, we still love Nebraska. Vegas fave Georgia Tech (11th last week) didn't do much with BC. Vegas faves Miami and BYU both looked bad; both dropped out of Vegas's rankings this week.
Games to watch: Unimpressed-by-Vegas Clemson is at N.C. State; expect a smaller-than-expected line. Impressed-by-Vegas Arizona State hosts Oregon State; expect a larger-than-expected line. Washington is at UCLA; Vegas expects a nice UCLA rebound.
(On the week's actual big games--LSU/South Carolina and 'Bama/Georgia--Vegas and the AP are mostly agreed.)
Numbers after the jump. AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Southern Cal (1)
2. LSU (2)
3. Oklahoma (4)
4. West Virginia (5)
5. Florida (3)
6. Texas (7)
7. Penn State (10)
8. Ohio State (8)
9. Oregon (13)
10. California (6)
11. Wisconsin (9)
12. South Carolina (12)
13. Boston College (14)
14. Rutgers (11)
15t. Missouri (25)
15t. Arizona State (28)
17. Nebraska (24)
18. Arkansas (26)
19. Alabama (16)
20. Florida State (34t)
21. Georgia Tech (27)
22. Virginia Tech (17)
23. Hawaii (19)
24. UCLA (30)
25t. Georgia (22)
25t. South Florida (23)
25t. Clemson (15)
28. Purdue (33)
29t. Louisville (18)
29t. Texas A&M (20)
29t. Kentucky (21)
By Dan Steinberg |
September 17, 2007; 8:29 AM ET
| Category:
College Football
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Posted by: Kim | September 17, 2007 09:31 AM
Vegas is silly with this. How did Clemson struggle? 38-10 and the freshman comes in during mop up time and gets another TD? Please...
Posted by: chris | September 17, 2007 11:30 AM
Clemson will continue to be elevated in the polls due to their cream puff schedule. Unfortunately, even with a bunch of cream puffs, their coach is virtually guaranteed of coaching them to an 8-4 schedule.
Posted by: Dan | September 17, 2007 01:23 PM
You can call it a cream puff schedule for Clemson all you want, but until Clemson stops scheduling cream puffs like South Carolina, they will have to live with the accusations.
Posted by: rick | September 17, 2007 01:30 PM
Clemson has 5 of the teams ranked above them on their schedule. They've already beaten one of them. Call it creampuff all you want but I doubt there are that many teams on that list that play games against that many ranked above them. Vegas rankings are done based off public perception just like the lines-- not based on reality of what teams are better.
Posted by: Mike | September 17, 2007 01:40 PM
Clemson is the beneficiary of a weak ACC this year. In other years, their schedule would be considered tougher. But this year, if they don't win the ACC with the lack of competitive teams, then it should be Bowden's last year.
Posted by: Jim | September 17, 2007 02:39 PM
FSU should be #20, Clemson should be #25?
Clemson beat FSU and handily beat two other lesser opponents while trying not to show all their hold cards before playing better conference teams. FSU didn't exactly blow out UAB or Colorado.
this logic makes no sense at all.
Posted by: Ryan | September 17, 2007 03:06 PM
I'm with chris. The same people who say Clemson struggled are the same who say Virginia Tech struggled against Ohio. It's not right, but that's college sports. If you think the Vegas rankings and all the other rankings for college football are messed up, look at the rankings for college soccer some time.
Posted by: sitruc | September 17, 2007 03:07 PM
My Clempson Tigers shuld be highere! You ought be learned sometin 'bout sports prognostercaton!
Posted by: Jim Bob Cooter | September 18, 2007 08:24 AM
You mean that creampuff South Carolina team that beat Clemson 31-28 last year?
Posted by: Mike | September 18, 2007 10:30 AM
Clemson is the beneficiary of a weak ACC this year. In other years, their schedule would be considered tougher. But this year, if they don't win the ACC with the lack of competitive teams, then it should be Bowden's last year.
How are we the beneficiaries of the weak acc this year with 5 teams in the acc ranked above us. Wouldn't that make it detrimental to us?
As far as I see it we keep winning against teams ranked higher than us and we should move up. Once again FSU is ranked higer than us, even after we beat them. Anyone else confused?
Go Tigers
Posted by: Matt | September 18, 2007 11:18 AM
You want to make some money this week take a look at GT UVA... GT's only giving 4.5
Homefield advantage at UVA? Doubt it...
Posted by: Matt | September 18, 2007 11:19 AM
Dan I love to read your blog each week and I love the comments. For the Clemson Tiger Fans....This isn't a popularity poll folks; this is a power poll..... The popularity poll is the media & coaches' polls. Florida State was a four-point favorite at Clemson, meaning Florida State has a seven to eight point higher power rating. There was significant money from people whom make their living off investing on sports wagering. The adjusted line if the two teams were to play next week at Clemson... Florida State-3.... Sorry Tiger fans, I didn't start this poll three years ago to bash the 2007 Clemson Tigers..... Clemson still has to visit NC State, Georgia Tech & South Carolina. Home games with Virginia Tech, Wake Forest & Boston College are not going to be easy.
Posted by: Kenny White, LVSC | September 18, 2007 08:29 PM
Any opinion on where the consultants have put Mizzou in this poll. Is there any historical perspective to how accurate this group has been over the years?
Posted by: Sam | September 21, 2007 10:58 AM
I get a kick out of people who post about how wrong Vegas is. I know everyone loves sports as do I, but you can rest assured the people who make the point spread probably know a bit about the games. Sometimes it isn't set so we can easily win money, it is set so the Casino can. Now that we have that truck load of wisdom, haha, we can see that gaming in Las Vegas has grown from a small 1 billion back in the late 70's to about 400 Billion a year here.
It isnt a hobby for us here folks - its how we make our living!!!
VEGAS WINNERS CRAZYDADDY.net
Posted by: CRAZYDADDY.net | September 28, 2007 10:17 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.
Other than the lousy Arizona Republic, I think this may be the only other place to read somewhat positive news about the Sun Devils.