Bush's Sweater Intelligence
When President Bush thanked Prime Minister Blair for the gift of a "sweater" yesterday, it was code. Bush was expressing appreciation for London's help in planning imminent secret operations to overthrow Bashar Assad in Syria, and eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Their conversation didn't make these operations explicit, but other intelligence indicates that the U.S. and Britain have long been cooperating militarily. Given Israel's clever diversion in attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, the timing may be just right for a double strike.
Of course, the sweater for which George thanked Tony WAS just a sweater.
But the private conversation in which the sweater was discussed tells a story about a way of looking at the world, a way that seems to be getting us nowhere.
As the latest Middle East saga unfolds, I'm struck by pundits' and talking heads' "insight" that Iran or Syria planned the Hamas and Hezbollah kidnappings of Israeli soldiers, and that those countries also control what happens next.
In this narrative, Iran is trying to divert attention from its nuclear weapons program; Syria is seeking revenge against American isolation and working to enlarge its power base. The two countries provide missiles, supply lines and sanctuary for Hezbollah and Hamas members. Iranian "soldiers" hide in Lebanon, and they aided Hezbollah in its Friday attack on an Israeli naval vessel, an attack that Hezbollah could not have otherwise mounted.
In this version of the tale, Hamas and Hezbollah are reduced to almost unimportant dupes of Iran and Syria, Lebanon is just a victimized country, and Israel simply is defending itself. The United States and the international community are absolved of responsibility for diplomatic failures, because what the events are part of is a grand conspiracy on which no amount of intervention could have an impact.
Following the same thread, Iran and Syria could "stop" the fighting by snapping their fingers. Even if this is a false characterization, their failure to call off the militants confirms that the Bush administration's approach towards them as the only option. Unhelpful Iran and Syria are thus confirmed as rogue nations along a new axis of evil.
It is a thought process that does not apply to the Middle East alone. China, too, is shown to be intent on mischief and harm to the West: Beijing similarly "failed" to stop North Korea from testing its missiles. In this characterization, China could have stopped the North and didn't. The grand geopolitical reasoning is that China wants North Korea to have nuclear weapons and threaten the West as a proxy. Obviously we need military vigilance and missile defenses in response.
I'm not saying there aren't hidden hands in world events, or that things are always what they seem. Iran and Syria are only too happy to see Israel attacked and to see a Western-friendly Lebanon damaged. As long as North Korea doesn't start a war, China is only too happy to see its own power increase as a broker.
But by assuming that Iran or Syria or China are all-powerful and thus evil for NOT taking action, we make two mistakes. First, we absolve ourselves -- the United States -- of responsibility for what unfolds in the world, suggesting in turn that we are neutered and that we should not hold our leaders accountable when conflict erupts.
Second though, we misread the dynamics of what happens in the halls of power, thus robbing ourselves of an understanding of the way the world works, and thus any say in the future.
Yesterday, in one of those almost comical events that would be news if the world weren't aflame, Bush and Blair had what they thought was a private conversation during the final lunch at the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg. But their discussion was picked up by an open microphone on the table.
The conversation, if anything, was inane in the extreme. Blair, ever the nerd, was pushing Bush for some statement or concession on trade -- it wasn't clear exactly what from the intercept -- while Bush was lightheartedly focused on Diet Coke, the sweater, and chit-chat about travel plans. I guess the president understands that it is safe to talk about the weather.
But in the unguarded moment, the president also expressed to Blair a view that the U.N. secretary-general -- "Kofi" -- should "get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this s**t.''"
The transcript of the otherwise private conversation got me thinking about how government leaders shape their views of world events: Profoundly isolated and perched at the top of their systems, leaders naturally are prone to seeing everything through a personal lens. It is Kofi and Angela and Vladimir and whatever that Syrian guy's name is.
Bush sees his counterparts, just as he sees himself, as individuals with the capacity to make decisions that can change the course of history. In the U.S. system, the kind of personal diplomacy that follows and the success of "negotiations" between these leaders is highly dependent on the kind of detail about their interlocutors' thinking and predilections that only intercepts and human spying can provide. Speak to any high-level official who has served in government and they will tell you the president and his closest aides voraciously consume the snippets of conversations that the NSA intercepts between world leaders and their closest aides in order to conduct their business.
In this world, what Kofi likes to eat or do in his spare time is as important as diplomatic history. If Putin is hording dollars in a Swiss Bank, it is far more useful information than the negotiating position of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
And that's just what the NSA and CIA collect on our "friends." Now think of the bad guys:
Bush gets a constant stream of "sweater" intelligence. Intercepts suggest commands and decisions and plots that may or may not be the whole stories, may or may not represent national policies. Syrian leaders and diplomats speak to their Iranian counterparts; the Iranian Foreign Minister in Damascus reports back to Tehran on Syria's thinking; Syria speaks to the Palestinian authorities, to Hamas, etc.
In this world, various leaders and factions plot their next moves, plan covert operations, undertake assassinations, decide on who to support and how based upon inside information. When the U.S. accuses Syria of being behind the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, or of harboring Hamas leadership, it more often than not does so based upon extremely sensitive sources of intercepted intelligence. When Israeli officials reveal Iranian military advisers in Lebanon or accuse the Lebanese military of directly aiding Hezbollah fighters in mounting attacks, they do so on the basis of snippets of intelligence -- is that an Iranian accent? -- collected by their own NSA.
The danger of this type of intelligence, and of leaders obsessed with gossip and the lurid details of world events, is that not only can the information sometimes not be reliable, but after awhile, endless geopolitical double-dealing and gosspi crowds out the big picture, that is, any true state responsibility.
At lunch yesterday, Bush told Blair he wanted Kofi "to get on the phone with Assad and make something happen."
Assad, in this version, can snap his fingers. It is a view that is on the one hand that of the ultimate insider, the consumer of "intelligence." In this version, we "know" things about Syria's "real" policies and involvement. The gossip is intoxicating and becomes the focus, even if it is intrinsically only one side of a story, elliptical and unclear. Israel here, and of course, the United States, is in the clear. It is just easier to see hidden hands in the making of conflict than it is to have some of our own failure imprinted upon a breakdown of diplomacy and effort.
By William M. Arkin |
July 18, 2006; 9:32 AM ET
Intelligence
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Posted by: Jason / WDC | August 2, 2006 12:11 PM
The fact that Israel has been attacked by Arab countries and Islamic terror groups for the past 50-odd years has prepared the Israeli population for future attacks. This is why there has been a lower loss of life on the Israeli side, than on the Lebanese side. Without the bomb shelters and air raid warnings, the loss of life in Israel may have surpassed the Lebanese.
The Hezbollah fanatics have done nothing to shelter the very people they force to act as shields. Hezbollah wants civilian casualties, it stokes their propaganda machine and rallies the populace to their side. It turns world opinion against Israel and leaves Hezbollah off the hook. The world shuns Israel, but supports the psychopathic killers that make up these Islamist terror groups! Go figure.
Posted by: Bruce | August 1, 2006 12:23 PM
Ever since I was a teenager watching All The Presidents Men I've dreamed that one day I would write something that would be published in the Washington Post....
It just came true!
But seriously, I agree totally with your opinion that world leaders like Blair and Bush have extremely small-window views of the world and the complexities of conflicts like Israel-Vs-Hizbollah/Hamas/Syria/
Iran.
That insight into Bush Blair convo is something I really wish I hadn't read and seen and heard, actually. I much preferred to think that they had a better grip on world affairs than I do.
Brrrr, chilling.
Posted by: Monty Baker | July 20, 2006 12:02 PM
Thank you Namron, Pete and John...
I am not an expert in Biblical eschatology, however, there appear to be some eschatological implementations to the United States' occuption of Iraq (Babylon if you will), and the great battle of nations that was to ensue. In the past, no one in theological circles, considered that the U.S.A. could be 'the Babylon' of biblical prophecy, well until recently that is.
I have also some reservations about the churches belief that the 1948 Israel, is the Israel of Biblical prophecy. Nothing personal against the people of Israel, however, the new Israel seems to be no more than a satellite state of Terarch, America.
If America turns out to be the Babylon of biblical prophecy, and Israel turns out to be America's adjutant nation, then surely the world has been duped by two of the purportedly most religious nations on earth.
Sound strange to hear a Rev say that, ah, I have never been conventional anyway. I witnessed totalitarianism in the church before. I believe that it all springs from a common root. Remember the Crusades?
Posted by: The Rev | July 20, 2006 9:22 AM
Adjuvant or Adjutant, whose who?
In every man's mind, his way seems to be the right one, the same seems to hold true for most human institutions. When a person or a nation feels that there way is the right way, it is hard to get them to concede any ground.
If action is truly based on belief, in other words, if people and nations act according to what they believe, then the solution might be to try to change the way that they believe, instead of trying to change their actions.
If the former were not true, then why do humans and all of their institutions fight so hard to hold on to or to protect their entrenched positions?
Perhaps we will someday, 'go back to the future' when I understand that during the nineteenth and mid-twentieth century, the world and the United States on one occasion, and the United States alone, on another occasion, discussed some rather creative solutions to resolve a couple of apparently unsolvable dilemmas.
1. Africa was sub-divided anyway, so there was serious consideration given to what to do with the Jewish population. I understand that the world considered dispersing the Jewish population in Israel or Germany (forgive me, I don't recall which) to Ghana, I believe it was.
2. Abraham Lincoln and members of his Cabinet, given the 'negro problem' in the United States, as I understand it, discussed gathering the black population of North America and relocating blacks en masse to Panama in a mass deportation. Later some blacks were assisted in relocating to Liberia.
Should we stop kidding ourselves today, and simply begin 'uploading or downloading' nations and people (take your pick of words) to different parts of the globe, along with the assistance of the world-wide community, help each group to get a new start so that we can have peace? Am I kidding, I don't know?
Perhaps, I am panicking. Okay, here is another idea then. Once we begin to populate planets and other stellar bodies, Pluto come become Arab, Mars could become Persian, Venus could become Korean and who did I miss? Oh, China could have the new planet that I forgot the name of that was just discovered. Then Israel and the United States could keep the Planet which they both seem to crave so much, the earth. Otherwise, these people are going to simply keep on fighting each other. Oops, recompile, I made a mistake; by right, China would have to have the Red planet. The Arabs would have the new planet. See then we could have black planets, white planets, yellow planets and so on.
You got a better idea(-:
The Rev
Posted by: The Rev | July 20, 2006 9:02 AM
Krauthammer really thinks that South Lebanon is "occupied territory" ready to be "liberated"? That's a bad joke if I ever heard it. I suppose that it was "liberated" when it was a "security zone" of Israel! When it featured the "secret prison" in Khiam, scene of routine torture, or perhaps southern Lebanon was liberated during the days of the Israeli-run Ansar concentration camp. The southern Lebanese were also free when they were being "taken in" to Israel, to disappear. I guess everyone is unfree when the land is not "redeemed".
So often I see claims that Shi'ites in Lebanon are "interlopers" and that Hezbollah is "alien" and should be removed. Hezbollah is of the people there, unlike Israel by the way that was imposed by an outside power to allow aliens to invade and hold land and purge the original inhabitants from the land.
My question is how do people like Krauthammer get away with telling such obvious and total lies, lies insulting to the intelligence of all, and still are considered worthy of writing columns for a major newspaper?
Posted by: r | July 19, 2006 7:06 PM
Sometimes a sweater is just a sweater.
Sometimes yet another Bush Failure is just another Bush Failure.
Sometimes the only way to win, is to lose.
But Bushies can't think much, so don't count on them to clue in anytime soon.
Posted by: Will in Seattle | July 19, 2006 5:07 PM
The evangelists pledging their support for Israel are wasting their time.The promises made in the bible to Israel,don't apply to the present 'political' entity,but to "spiritual" Israel.The ancient Israelites were rejected long ago as God's chosen people because they didn't accept Jesus as the Messiah.Jesus himself pronounced the final judgement as you can read below(which doesn't mean that individual jews today,can't receive forgiveness for their sins,they can,but only through Jesuschrist).
"O Jerusalem,Jerusalem,you who kill the prophets and stone those sent to you,how often I have longed to gather your children together,as a hen gathers her chicks under her wings,but you were not willing.Look,your house is left to you desolate.For I tell you,you will not see me again until you say,"Blessed is He who comes in the name of Jehovah".
Mathew 23:37-39
Posted by: John | July 19, 2006 4:31 PM
r,
israel reimburse lebanon for damage inflicted? are you kidding? did the arab punks reimburse the israelis for the '67 war? who else but the two faced arabs leaders would think to initiate a war, lose, demand back what they lost, get it pretty much, then continue to poke eyes with sharp sticks?
please tell me you're either kidding or were dropped on your head as a baby.
Posted by: shabbydiplomacy | July 19, 2006 2:52 PM
I'm wondering how much of the government is being used as the private resources of this group of men and complicit congress...
it seems pretty easy for me to understand that bush isn't comfortable being watched or examined....
he has placed his cronies in position of oversight, because he doesn't want any...
negroponte, cheney, rumsfeld, gonzales, brownie, harriet miers...
people that "won't rat him out," and are in on the heist...
democracy in the middle east, yeah, right...
NSA spying for terrorists? what terrorists?
NSA spying to get the edge on other financial institutions? more than likely...
face it, you've got an addict for president.
can you trust an addict alone in your apartment when you've got a collection worth billions of dollars.....dream on...
your apartment will be empty, your collection will be gone and your reputation with the other people in the building will be in tatters because you let him stay there....
that is the analogy
.
Posted by: I guess, | July 19, 2006 12:56 PM
Thanks for the reply Rev. It was always brought up in my university foreign policy courses; a lot of people seemed very attached to the idea whereas others think it is a fortunate historical anomaly. I suppose those attached to the idea will say the palestinians don't count because they are not a state and the lebanon affair is really Isreal vs. Hezb. not Isreal vs. Lebanon.
Posted by: Pete | July 19, 2006 11:38 AM
And the war of Northern Aggression is accompanied with the innocuous attitude of Western double-standards as the West engages in war, i.e., Mr. Bush said the other day, that Kofi Annan should go and tell Syria and others what they should and should not do with respect to Hezbollah.
And sadly, the same President and his government who constantly seek to undermine the U.N., not just with respect to the war, consider the Millenium Project, ignored the United Nations and entered into and destroyed Iraq.
Would Mr. Bush get out of Iraq, if Kofi told him to do so. I think not?
American double-standards and double-speak, are truly outdated and boring!
I heard a speaker on CNN say that 85% of the weapons being created and exported around the world are manufactured by the 5 permanent members of the Security Council. And these are the nations who are supposed to be securing peace in the world. Not very Democratic, huh?
Posted by: The Rev | July 19, 2006 11:24 AM
No two democracies ever fought a war? I think not. What about the War of Northern Aggression?
Posted by: Mike Deal | July 19, 2006 11:14 AM
Pete,
Author Howard Zinn, of the book 'Just War', answered this question last week.
He said in effect that Democracies have been too busy fighting other nations, or something to that effect, to engage each other.
It is not the form of Government, it is simply what people have in their hearts, the same that they will act upon, that counts.
Thats my viewpoint. Mr. Bush with his sweater diplomacy, is simplying doing what he feels that he is supposed to be doing with regard to America's historical ill-gotten foreign policy! I guess we will live and die with it, no matter what! But it is really is time to make some changes to it!
I also like what Pat Buchanan and George Will indicated last week. America wants Democratic elections in other countries. The Palestinians voted for Hamas. And obviously the Americans were not happy, and Israel cut off funds to the Hamas Government.
Both seemed to concur that Democracy is not the exlir that will heal the world's problem.
I know for a fact that Democracy is not the solution. The fact that America has enjoyed the successes that it has, was not because of Democracy alone, it was because of the faith of Americans in a higher power, which became a unifying prinicple, and if you will a defacto Government.
We still have Democracy today in America. However, given the decline in belief or the desire or need to follow some God or some ethereal unifying principle that transcends politics, American morals and standards are on the decline. And guess what, we still have Democracy, as debauched as it might be?
I always say, what is the difference between Democracy, and Democrazy? We seem to have too much of the latter!
The Rev
Posted by: The Rev | July 19, 2006 11:05 AM
One of the arguements in favor of democracy is that no two democracies have ever fought a war. Does the current conflict between Isreal and Lebanon, both democracies, break this rule?
Posted by: Pete | July 19, 2006 9:27 AM
You imply that Iran, Syria and China have these hidden agendas, they use proxy countries and groups to push their interests and be thorns in America's side and Bush knows it. You say Bush believes all these countries have to do is snap their fingers and they can make everything better.
But what about these countries and how they see the US and its proxies? If I were Chinese, I'd see South Korea, Japan and Taiwan as American proxies, proxies that are used to be thorns in the side of China. Israel would be an obvious thorn for islamic states in the ME but it is not alone. The US's real thorns are Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Turkey and soon Afganistan and Iraq. In the view of much of the world, the US can snap its fingers and make these countries do whatever dance we want. And to some extent that is true.
What is scary is that Bush may be thinking that this is how the world not only works, but should work. Its how the world worked during the cold war and I think we all hated those times. A world where countries with large economies and militaries line up against each other with proxies in the middle serves no one's interest. If we Americans want a different world, a better world where proxies are not needed to insulate ourselves from direct confrontation, we need to engage these other countries, heavily and directly. Nixon knew that to get close to China we needed to exchange people, we needed to talk and we needed to understand each other's interests and positions. It started with simple exchanges of people, the famous ping-pong diplomacy but soon escalated into direct talks between the governments. It worked to the point that when the Russians shot down the Korean airliner flying over Sakalin Island, everyone was shocked to learn that it was a US listening station in China that recorded the Russian pilots communication. How had we come to the point where China allowed a US listening station on its land? Open communication, direct dialog, mutual interests determined through that dialog and lots and lots of discussions. Its time we started talking directly to our perceived enemies: Iran and Syria. Direct talks, non-stop talks, open and frank discussions. Only then will any level of trust be built so that threats through proxies becomes unnecessary. It wouldn't hurt Israel to do the same.
But Bush is a unilateralist. He does not believe in building trust, communication or dialog. Its his way or the highway. And so, today, we have these proxies fighting for our interests. In Bush's world view proxy wars are the result of using proxies to push interests, ours and theirs. Its time to stop and use one of the few good things Nixon developed, diplomacy intended to reduce tensions, increase understanding and promote peace through mutual understanding of each other's interests. Then maybe we and these proxy countries can live in peace.
Posted by: Sully | July 19, 2006 9:26 AM
The road to a solution is therefore clear: Israel liberates south Lebanon and gives it back to the Lebanese....Just as in Kuwait in 1991, what must follow the air campaign is a land invasion to clear the ground and expel the occupier. Israel must retake south Lebanon and expel Hezbollah.
Charles Krauthammer
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
I see the Kraut man is comparing the current Israel/Lebanon war to the Persian war from fifteen years ago and project it to be an unqualifying success. But wait, haven't we heard this line much more recently? Where could it be? Let's see... Liberate Iraq from Saddam, enter Baghdad welcomed by flowers and open arms, turn it over to the Iraqis and leave in a few months, etc., etc.
Expel Hezbollah? Where would they go? Iraq? And join the Shiites there? Will they become wards of the US military then since we are fighting Sunnis there to protect the Shiites?
Be careful what you wish for Mr. Krauthammer or you may end up with a second Iraq which in turn was predicted by some to be a second Lebanon of twenty years ago. Besides in the age of long range missiles there is no safe buffer anywhere.
Fool yourself once shame on you. Fool yourself twice shame on you more, Charles.
In the interest of peace here's my exit strategy:
1. Hezbollah turns over the two captured Israeli soldiers to the Lebanese govt/army who will declare them POWs since Lebanon is now technically at war with Israel.
2. Israel declares a 48 hour ceasefire to allow the Red Cross to check in on the prisoners. Israel also promises not to stage a rescue attempt.
3. The Red Cross verifies the soldiers' welfare. Israel declares a temporary ceasefire. Hezbollah declares a ceasefire.
4. Send in the UN, the US, the EU, Condi, etc., to work out a deal - Hezbollah turns over their missiles to the Lebanese army and pulls back from the border, exchange of POWs.....
Not much but it got to start somewhere.
Posted by: Fool on the hill... | July 19, 2006 9:17 AM
Mac,
Consider this...
I have met with several delegations that have been on goodwill missions to the Middle-East. These delegations have met with both sides, including meetings/audiences with the late Yasser Arafat, and with the now comatose Ariel Sharon, who was apparently as much a terrorist as Yasser Arafat and others were accused of being!
It is not factual, according to what I learned from their firsthand experiences, that Israel is the exclusive friend of the U.S.A. in the Middle-East. From what I learned, many Middle-easterners crave friendlier relations with the U.S.A.
It is the U.S.A.'s exclusive relationship with Israel that prevents that from happening. Israel is like the spoiled child that does not want his parents to befriend its siblings. Israel's insistence on being the apple of America's eye is problematic at best. America should not forget that these people have a blood-kinship; they are half-brothers! America should learn to never get in between brothers; even when brothers fight, the most prudent thing for outsiders to do is to stand clear.
The U.S.A., given its allegiance and support of Israel, refuses to get too close to Israel's stepbrothers. And as favoritism in parenting is always problematic, America's show of favoritism in the middle-east, has caused tensions and resulted in wars between Israel, Middle-Easterners and the rest of the world. As long as circumstances continue as they are, nothing will ever change!
With respect to fundamentalism, the fact is Mac, religious fundamentalism and zealotry is apparent and problematic on all sides; the West is biased in its interpretations of which religious sect or group is causing the problem.
The Christians, the Jews and those of the Islamic faith, all have their radical components. Don't forget that Rev. Pat Robertson floated the idea of knocking off the President of Venezuela last year and Pat's views do not stray far from the views of many in the radicalized American Religious Right (staunch believers in the theory of Just War'). Many Christian churches, in lieu of scriptures, are raising millions of dollars to support Israel's war effort. They have been doing this for decades.
These religious groups are not praying and waiting for answer from their respective deities, they are choosing sides and supporting the war efforts. In short they are also responsible for victim deaths. I learned last week that approximately seven out of ten of the people who are killed in wars, are innocent citizens; I also learned that three out of ten of the innocent victims are children. And these numbers do not take into consideration the number of people who are maimed, injured, displaced and in need of food and medical support.
The radicalized factions in all of the 3 major religious groups in the world seem to have abandoned their sacred texts in the name of war. And regrettably, all of these factions seem to be succeeding in gaining support among their respective faiths. If I was a skeptic, I would be saying, see what I mean about religion, Karl Marx must have been right! Well, I must confess that I agree with Karl Marx in context.
As the major religious groups believe about terriroty (dirt), each group has also; staked out an exclusive claim to a diety, i.e., Allah, Yahweh, the Great Spirit...you take your pick. What a shame, give up the dirt, I say!
Each group, not just the Muslim Brotherhood, ought to admit that they have strayed from what one would believe that God, who ever they refer to him, would want! Ari Fleischer once made it clear that Mr. Bush prays on his own time, but he relies on his Cabinet to help him to make his final decisions. Oops!!
Even the Hebrew Scriptures read: 'If my people who are called by name...would turn from their wicked ways...". There is a lot of wicked stuff going on out there in the name of politics, and the religious groups are right smack-dab in the middle of it, and egging it on! Makes you wonder who these people really are--
Where do I come down on this? Frankly, neither on the side of religion or politics, I come down on the side of Justice. The majority of wars are unjust!
The Rev
Posted by: The Rev | July 19, 2006 9:17 AM
Oh William
Speaking of NSA wiretaps you haven't been reading my mail again.
On Monday July 17 (July 16 DC time) I said:
"Yet the scale of Israeli attacks in Lebanon suggests a wider purpose of escalating the war to draw Syria and Iran into it.
Israel is claiming that Hizbullah and some alleged Iranian agents (which Israel dramitically labels "Revolutionary Guards") are fighting an Iranian proxy war against Israel. The claim can then be made that if Hizbullah in future receives Iranian nuclear weapons, nuclear war with Israel will result - with catastrophic implications for US/Western interests in the Middle East (including oil shortages).
Iran's fiery words alone have been seen internationally as insufficient to justify the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities. However if Iran can be seen as a participant/instigator of a "war on Israel" then the long anticipated Israeli/US bombing of Iran might be seen as a justified act to "preempt possible Iranian nuclear aggression"."
http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com
Now admittedly I have used snippets of your blog but always cite them. But in this case our thoughts are just too coincidental.
Seriously if you need an Aussie based correspondent (very low rates) just ask.
Pete
Posted by: Spooky Pete | July 19, 2006 9:01 AM
If following their withdrawal from Gaza, Israel had also dropped its neo-colonial mentality (and its underlying racism)and indulged in actual nation-building and allowed the Palestinean to invest and create a future rather than constantly pounding them back into a ghetto of abysmal infrastructure and starving them of hope (when not literally) and of a future -- it's not a stretch to consider that the majority would have reined in, if not suppressed the militants, rather than egg them on. Were it not for the carnage being played out in Gaza daily on Israeli TV, the provocation by to strike back would be absent. Mainstream Hezbollah, liking its role in the Cedar Revolution and the accompanying middle class status and comfort , would hold back its militants. The true religion -- the monotheism of all parties seems to be just brute force. 40 years of applying power without consensus and without palpable success hasn't been a learning experience.
Posted by: RavenAmongCrows | July 19, 2006 8:54 AM
Cut them off at the neck...?
Americans and Israelis decry the support of Hamas and Hezballoh from Syria and Iran, while at the same time Israel is backed by the United States Government, and in deference to provision 501(c) of the United States Tax code, many American churches and other non-profit organizations in the United States.
And where does this money go that is never to be used for political purposes that many non-suspecting Christians place in the offering pans? Many times these exempt American tax dollars are being sent to Israel and ultimately used to replenish Israel's war coffers.
In other words, the money is not going to the synagogues of Israel, in support of Judaism.
In the future, consider that each time your church raises money in support of Israel; you may be supporting the carnage that is taking place in Lebanon!
American Christian philanthropist must stop supporting Israel's war efforts, and America must stop the double-standards. As one can witness, not even religious people, believe in the sense of fair play!
The Rev
Posted by: The Rev | July 19, 2006 7:39 AM
my comment about Attorney General Gonshilliazze being walking talking pond scum...
where is it?
he proved it today. you could say I'm prescient...
peace love, and hope they do time.
.
Posted by: ps. I enjoyed my comment | July 19, 2006 1:14 AM
george bush, though he may be a hypocrite, liar, alcoholic and former coke addict...I know that every thing that he is doing is
what is good for our country, like reducing veterans benefits during "war" or occupation time...or reducing our elderly's ability to pay for the meds by reducing their medicare benefits by $30 per month per recipient to pay for his oil grab in Irack...
those dirty towel heads, how dare they have so much oil? it's friggin unchristian...indignant, hell! I want some of thet oil, and if I have to send every mother fricking blue collar workers child over there and promise them the moon and deliver them 3 consecutive reenlists that they don't have an y choice about well that's just the price _they_ have to pay for patriotism....
me I get to sell all the oil I can corrall and even get to make it the main topic of conversation at Gfriggin8, 'cause it's a free advertisement OPPORTUNITY...
we got the oil friggin market cornered...me and my towel head budd-eyes, royalty rocks...oh it's good to have connections!
.
long live people that I can sucker with appeal to emotion!!!!
gawd, mom, patriotism, babies, apple pie and "war"
yes, it's a great land where so many weak minds have access to so much natural wealth that I can steal.
.
Posted by: ah believe very deeply in | July 19, 2006 1:11 AM
Syria has done more to help the US against al-Qa'eda than Israel has. So the US should help Syria and its Hezbollah allies against Israel certainly. Recently, Israel threatened Assad with death with a sonic boom over his house. So Syria, with its right to self-defence, has the right to use all means to retaliate at Israel, troublemaker.
I think that any buffer zone that is created must be in northern Israel. UN forces with anti-aircraft batteries should be stationed there and if Israeli aircraft appear, they should be blasted out of the sky in order to protect Lebanese airspace. Likewise, the coast of Lebanon should be protected from the Israelis who have a history of piracy in the area.
The world must protect Lebanon by helping Lebanese armed forces and its resistance, Hezbollah, party that represents the largest ethno-religious group there, against a racist state determined to destroy the civilian infrastructure of Lebanon, to destroy that country. Just today, they bombed a tissue paper factory, Lebanon's dairy industry, a pharmaceutical plant and a medical supplies factory.
Israel should be forced to pay for the damage. The US can do this easily by diverting its annual tribute to Israel to Lebanon.
Posted by: r | July 19, 2006 1:00 AM
Israel has a right to a defense. However, we are missing one salient point...
A year ago most of Lebanon was demonstrating against Syrian meddling in their country.
Now Israel is bombing those same people - not by design; but they are inevitably in the "colateral damage" category...
Let Israel defend itself.
But let's tell them to go after the right target - Syria!
Until the Syrian government has a drastic change of direction; Israel will always be ubder attack from Lebanon. Let the Syrians suffer the wrath they nutured - not Lebanese that were against Syrian influence.
Posted by: Namron | July 18, 2006 8:51 PM
In defense of Mr. Bush,
He did not get to be President of the U.S.A., and leader of the Free World on his own, he had help.
Mr. Bush was apparently the best that the Republican Party had to offer when they set out to 'take out' the Democratic Party nominee, Vice President Al Gore. Now, six years and an abysmal record on his part later, I seem to be hearing that incredible 'sucking sound' that Ross Perot once spoke about. However, in this case, that sound is coming from once outspoken Republicans who have appeared to be in disagreement with many of Mr. Bush's policies and actions, over the past couple of years. .
Republicans, you deserve to be scolded as little children would be, for behaving like spoiled children and insisting, legally or illegally, that this man be placed into Office. Your skillful chicanery appears to have back-fired failed in the long run. Although I personally believe that Mr. Bush is doing as well as could be expected, I wonder what will be left of the White House and America's image in the world once he leaves office.
Your Presidential choice, given his name recognition, resulted in the man that we have now who is doing his best to be Presidential. He never was qualified and you know that he was not qualified. Your actions and not his alone have resulted in countless loss of lives in Iraq, Gaza and now Lebanon; and God help Iran and Korea, two nations that still on American radar..
What could Mr. Bush have said to Israel from St. Petersburg, given that Israel was simply following the, I call and will see you one, and raise you one, example that had been set by the U.S.A. following 911? In other words, both nations were attacked, both nations responded, and then both nations launched into an independent strike against other nations.
Republicans, Israel and all three of the world's major religions, should be embarrassed given what is taking place all over the world, not Mr. Bush all by himself! America has gone from being a so-called Superpower to An Irresponsible Power, and America is taking its step-child along with her!
The Rev
Posted by: The Rev | July 18, 2006 8:12 PM
It is well and good for Bush to want to see Israel crush Hezbollah. The man brims with indignation, righteously so, expletively so. It can be explained as a good thing, it has been explained as a good thing, for Hezbollah is said to be a terrorist organization. Indeed.
It is another thing to let Israel pulverize the rest of Lebanon along with the Hez. Unless we need to destroy Lebanon in order to save it. Besides strong measure and collective punishment are said to work in that region better than anywhere else, better than Europe under Nazi Germany by far. The Arabs understand force, nothing but force.
The Israeli Foreign Minister is quoted to say she wants the Lebanese army to take control of the border from Hezbollah. At the same time the Israeli air force is shown bombing Lebanese army bases to smithereens. One must assume the Foreign Minister thinks Lebanese soldiers who survive these raids are saints and utmost professionals who when the dust settles will just forget everything and be good neighbors from then on. Quaint strategy you say?
No quainter than Bush's burning desire to see the Shiites in Lebanon put down while at the same time he spares no expense to prop up the very same Shiites a few hundred miles away in Iraq.
Our Shiites must be better than their Shiites? More democratic, more deserving perhaps?
Let's just hope the Iranians don't get first dibs on all the Shiites' allegiance...
It's a quaint time we live in you say?
Posted by: Quaint Observer | July 18, 2006 6:33 PM
Brilliant analysis. Blindingly so to many follow-on posters. Your detractors seem to just want to get on with the fighting so "we" can "win". Cowboy diplomacy. Tough talk. Myopic. Suicidal. Sad.
But we Americans don't carve giant heads of presidents out of stone who expanded peace during their administrations, only those who waged war.
Posted by: Rich Campbell | July 18, 2006 5:59 PM
With Israel as our only friend in the entire Middle east, it would be prudent to back them in their fight with terror. I am concerned with the fringe Islam nations and their total disregard for human life. I think they need to be schooled in respect and tolerance for others and Isreal is just the nation to do it.
Posted by: Mac | July 18, 2006 5:39 PM
Do you think it's just possible that the gratitude expressed for a sweater was just that ... saying thanks for a sweater, and nothing more? Mr. Arkin makes a weak argument that Bush and other leaders see conspiracy in Syria/Iran/China where he sees none ... whereas Mr. Arkin's suggestion that the sweater comment has ALL these other meanings is one that reminds me of Oliver Stone's conspiracy theory conjectures in "JFK". Pure fantasy and guessing. Perhaps he needs to spend a little more time outside the Beltway.
Posted by: Steve | July 18, 2006 5:36 PM
This is total crap. Washington Post would be better off getting kindergarden kids to write for them.
Posted by: Rick Allen | July 18, 2006 5:30 PM
What is mind numbing about the conversation is that there he is, the leader of the most powerful county on earth talking about a man across the table from him while doing absolutely nothing but smacking on food. If he believes all Annan has to do to end the conflict is tell Syria to stop it why in the name of god doesnt he just say that to Annan? Oh right, because he's busy giving back rubs and talking about roast pig. This is what happens when the press shelters the country from knowing they have a buffoon as a leader.
Posted by: Alexande | July 18, 2006 5:27 PM
It is difficult to believe that anyone who has gone through as many attempts at sanctioning countries as Bush, would think that Kofi could snap his fingers to get anything done. No one controls the Palestinians! Arafat told al-Qaida to stay out of their struggle. Hizbullah and the various Palestinian factions are nationalist and represent the interest of Lebanon and a future Palestinian state respectively. Everybody in the Islamic world supports the Palestinians, and many countries have supported them with money and arms.
As a Shia organization, Hizbullah has the inside track with Iran for money, but Hamas, who are Sunni, also receives support from Iran. A good deal has been made out of the Iraqi Shia's connection with Iran, But their anti-Saddam movement was also supported by Syria. These groups had offices in Syria too. Syria was our ally during the first Gulf War.
Anything that comes out of the Bush Administration or the Israeli government on Arab governments and organizations is largely disinformation.
Posted by: P. J. Casey | July 18, 2006 5:22 PM
Mr. Arkin: "Sweater Intelligence"...I think you spent too much time at the Holabird Inn and not enough time paying attention to your classwork in your former analytical military life? If you attribute Syrian and Iranian involvement, in the current Middle East Crisis, to High Level Government Gossip you need to take another longer vacation and clear your head!!!
Posted by: M.Stewart | July 18, 2006 5:21 PM
While I appreciate your conclusions drawn from reading the Bush transcript (such as: government leaders shape their views of world events: Profoundly isolated and perched at the top of their systems)
I think it is easy to make to much of the words exchanged. Bush and Blair are just two guys joking around with each other. As long as they are able, as leaders, to separate they're exaggeratedly isolated and self-assured views from the real political situations in which they lie, I do not think they are going as far astray as you imply.
Posted by: Salem | July 18, 2006 4:32 PM
Bill,
I imagine Assad can snap his fingers as well if not considerably better than Bush in regard to what Syria does or does not suppport. Your piece implies that the US can make or break all of these vying factions if only we would get involved more... what makes you think that? That would be an interesting follow on piece.
Posted by: Don | July 18, 2006 2:16 PM
I assume that the United States can do something in the writers view. If only we had spent more time meeting with people, they would not have had time to plan attacks on Israel.
It certainly can not be that the Palestinians really do want to crush Israel or Hizbollah wants peace at all costs and if only the Israelis would give back all the prisoners.
Iran does hate the west, Syria does want control of Lebanon, there really are terrorists that want to destroy us. None of these countries or the North Korean government have any interest in being friendly. They do not believe in our systems, hate our religions and actually are quite vocal about all of these feelings.
At what point do we get involved? Do we wait for friends to be destroyed? Do we wait for another attack on American soil or an embassy? I think we have been playing nice for a number of years, and it has not made friends.
If only we could roll up the oceans and never have to deal with anyone else....... Or at least only have to invite them for tea and a little diplomacy.
Posted by: David Wilson | July 18, 2006 1:54 PM
"It is just easier to see hidden hands in the making of conflict than it is to have some of our own failure imprinted upon a breakdown of diplomacy and effort."
No, it is best to see what one can do now and not bother with yesterday's news. If we have to take out Iran, perhaps it is time to get busy/
Two questions to focus your mind:
1. Who do you really want to win?
2. What would Truman do?
Or, if you favor the other side,
1. How can we call this another "Bush failure."
2. How can we stand the nations we want to win?
Posted by: Gary Masters | July 18, 2006 1:27 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.

The irony of this column, Mr. Arkin, is that your "insight" into the Bush/Blair worldview is as gossipy and based on even less of a sliver of intel as you accuse Bush's reasoning. Very snide, condescending, and vain. Please stick to hard analysis.