Don't Let Nukes Become Musharraf's Excuse

Last night on NPR, news analyst Daniel Schorr suggested that Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf has been "curiously vague" about his reasons for declaring emergency rule. Schorr noted that Pakistan has "more than 50 nuclear bombs spread among locations around the country," which "until recently" were considered safe. And he offered the theory that Musharraf was motivated, at least in part, by a fear that "al Qaeda terrorists may somehow gain access to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and wage what some have called 'nuclear jihad.'"

To be sure, the destabilization of Pakistan presents real risks. And loose nukes in the hands of terrorists would be a catastrophe. But Schorr is dead wrong to suggest that the government crackdown was in any way justified by nuclear dangers.

First off, Musharraf hasn't been vague at all. His "reason" for declaring martial law was fear of loss of power - prompted by Benazir Bhutto's return, looming elections, a severe drop in popularity and a constitutional fight with the Supreme Court over his status.

Second, Pakistan doesn't have "bombs" that could be just picked up and carted off by Al Qaeda. By all indications, Pakistan's nuclear materials are stored separately from its warheads, not assembled as ready-to-use weapons.

Furthermore, rather than being "spread" around, they are concentrated in one or two, highly secure, locations, according to my sources. But it's not like these locations are glowing beacons to al Qeada - their secrecy is heavily guarded.

What's more, virtually all experts accept that, since Sept. 11, Pakistan has improved nuclear security. And it is particularly aware of the dangers of Islamic extremists inside the government and the military.

I know that various intelligence agencies are intent on watching for signs of vulnerability or movements in the nuclear field. And so far, sources say, there is no evidence to suggest that Pakistan's nuclear security or controls have been compromised.

Musharraf's gross abuses should not be excused by exaggerated nuclear fears. For the future, it is essential that we recognize what nuclear weapons do to us and our thinking. A mindset based upon the assumption that nuclear threats trump every other concern is in some ways more dangerous than the fact of nuclear weapons themselves.

By William M. Arkin |  November 14, 2007; 9:05 AM ET Iran , Nuclear Weapons , Pakistan
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Dear Mr.Arkin,

Is this Code Names on the Blog?
President Musharraf with U.S. Special Forces:
Could he not fulfill his obligations as Commander and Chief ?
The answer, No. He has played the trump card on democracy to a nuclear advantage. The idea of counter balancing nuclear weapons with India is the same as Mexico counter balancing nuclear weapons with the United States of America due to immigration.
We have lost the main objective on AlQeada.

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Posted by: nisabwp ptuecf | December 8, 2007 10:54 AM

Democratic rule in Pakistan has been limited to just 25 years since independence. The army has ruled for most of the time. It is the institution that has the most experience in running the country. Elected parties are ever wary that they can be replaced at any time, and are never free to make the type of decisions that would make for progress and to gain in the eyes of the people the same respect. It constantly defers to the military, and lives in fear of it. Consider Ali Bhutto, the father of Banazair. He was hung by Ul Haq another military dictator. The military has enjoyed the best of the land and resources and has its hands in every venture, interest, investment, and development in the country. It commands a huge portion of the national budget, and anything that comes from the US, in its sub-contract to Pakistan to fight terrorism, is just gravy. Besides, the army has been held in stellar esteem (full credit to a well-oiled propaganda machine), so much so that ordinary Pakistanis are fully convinced that they have won every war with India, and that without the army in absolute control of all assets, Pakistan will be overrun by India and others, and so its perpetuates its control and legitimacy while it parasitizes the very country and people it is supposed to defend. Musharraf is a skillful tactician and by cunning and deceit, he has cultivated the very terrorism the he is lately "trying" to destroy. I say trying, because the real presence of terrorists in his country, of the likes of Osama, Mullah Omar, Dawood Ibrahim, and others is all the legitimacy that he needs and the money pipeline from Washington and from other forein capital will continue to pump gold into his pockets. The army will never disappear from Pakistani politics; it may allow for a while the donning of a democratic suit, and obfuscate the building of a true democracy, but only for a while. Musharraf sent Prime Minister Sharif to Washington to pry the Pakistani army's head from the Indian vice that was tightening every day, only to return from that successful embassy to be ousted from power and to lose the right to live in his own country. Terrorism worsened in Pakistan and Afghanistan in his time, and the Madrassas are still spewing out its suicide bombers for hire. Musharraf was to be blamed, not Sharif who was ignorant of the Kargil plan, and ignorant of the plan to escalate to a nuclear missile attack on India. Power is the goal, and depending on how desperate the military is for that power, I am sure that it is willing to consider leaking some of these nuclear weapons, as did AQ Khan his dirty bomb plans to al Qeada, just to stay in power. It is time to remove these weapons from Pakistan, for safe keeping in either the US or the UK. Pakistanis may travel to these capitals to see them on "display". It is too big a trump card for the military, and we will never see democracy take root in that country with its presence, now that the military has discovered its propoganda value. It will become less warlike, less threatening, and it is less likely to hide behind the excuse that it must be in charge to guard these jewels. The sooner, the better.

Posted by: Narine Singh | November 28, 2007 7:30 PM

These guys should understand if these deadly weapons goes in the hands of terrorists it might destroy the whole world. Pakistan's economy is so bad that its highly likly that someday someone might just sold out critical information that may lead to terrorist getting their hands on Nukes.

Regards,
http://www.lyricsocean.com

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Posted by: cdgxlzrwf qkpm | November 20, 2007 6:24 PM

Pakistan is a failed state. Partition was a grave error: roll it back. A secular and democratic Greater India. The nukes merged. The Kashmir problem resolved instantly. Give the NWFP back to Afghanistan. Make the Generals India's problem.

Posted by: Eric Yendall | November 16, 2007 2:04 PM

What should I expect from one who quotes Daniel Schorr? Not much, to be sure.

Posted by: Gary E. Masters | November 16, 2007 8:54 AM

Mr. Arkin,

Its not nuclear threat, rise of militants or anything else, The reason for emergency is judiciary. Judiciary of Pakistan was gradually on a course of freedom from establishment. So Mush deemed it necessary to 'nup the evil in the bud'.
If there is rise in militancy, its due to Mush negligence and playing double games with west and Pakistanis for his self interest.
There can't be more shameless action than this imposition of emergency in the name of these pretensions which Musharraf revealed for justification of MARTIAL LAW.

Posted by: Zaheer Chughtai | November 16, 2007 7:29 AM

Mr. Arkin,
Do your sources reveal the OPLAN for securing Pakistan's HEU?

Posted by: Hawk58 | November 16, 2007 6:42 AM

Bush adm is indierctly fueling insurgency in Pakistan by supporting a military regime who has seized the basic rights of his own country men and women.

Posted by: Imran | November 15, 2007 1:54 PM

Presidential grab for power:

Let's be honest about it folks, for it is not only Mushareff and Chevaz who have tried to consolidate power in their respective countries, Bush and Putin did the same thing recently in their respective countries.

The United States Supreme Court, in part, checked #43's grab for power. Musharref was smarter than #43, he simply put the Supreme Court on furlough, in the same manner that #43 appointed former U.N. Ambassdor Bolten, and others while Congress in recess. Moral equivalent again? Bush continues trying to consolidate power in America to this day.

And speaking of that, my nemesis-comrade in arms, the Reverend Pat Robertson wants to 'fix the Supreme Court". At least that is what he said on the Hannity and Colmes news show last night. He said that, in order to explain his support for Giuliani in the presidential race.

I suspect that fix the Court in Pat's lexicon means: Fixed as in illegally prearranged as to outcome: you know like a fixed election. Robertson is an unprincipled man!

Mushareff is simply doing what several other leaders of note, including the American leader, have done and tried to do over and over again!

Posted by: The Rev | November 15, 2007 1:21 PM

Pakistan is a muture country and consist of highly educated self disciplined population may be not in total . The proof is clear- " most Pakistan Army is fed up with Musharraf and his cronies like his own hand picked few Army generals and core commanders which he selected himself for his poddlings. It is due to Army in General and their disciplined training in particular has prevented any bad thing happening to Pakistan nuke, fears for which raised by thousands so- called "learned" commentators. There is no doubt Musharraf is curse upon Pakistan and sooner he leaves better it is But world should sleep without any fear nothing will happen to Pakistan Nuke. However these commentators should worried about Musharraf and his cronies who may create diversion by doing un-expected.

Posted by: Shafique | November 15, 2007 12:46 PM

@
Buffalo,

I gather from ur post that the Westren countries and the US will not allow the institutions to flourish in Pakistan. Thats why they are more keen to maneouver "democracy" rather than to let it come naturally.They hav power to use dictators or so called champions of democracy for their own interests.But remember,if at this critical juncture in history we are able to win the constitutional battle,the west will find it impossible to interfere in our country again.

Posted by: S.Maria | November 15, 2007 11:49 AM

Point proved!

Posted by: PH | November 15, 2007 10:36 AM

Why won't you people talk more about Communism? Why?

Posted by: che | November 15, 2007 7:19 AM

Musharraf needs all the support that friends of Pakistan can give him at this time. He has been a benign dictator and was steadily and in a controlled manner bringing in freedoms and democracy. Sadly, Pakistani judiciary,especially the superior judiciary, media and similar sections of the society showed lack of wisdom and foresight. They took him on, knowing a soldier will always be a soldier and hence the declaration of emergrncy. Good sense, wisdom and tolerance by all in the milieu can help in early return to normalcy. It seems strange that the Western and US media should efferviscently laud Benazir and tout her to Musharraf and Pakistan. Her record speaks for itself. She failed herself, her Party and the country twice. If she was an honourable person, she would clear her name in Swiss, Spanish and British courts [I do not mention Pakisyani courts because the US has twisted Musharraf arm to give her amnesty] before playing politics again. She is the epitome of an opportunist. Witness how she engineered her pardon from Musharraf to get in and is now chiding him. What hypocracy. Leaders like her are a curse on their people. She presents herself as a champion of the country's constitution and yet very much against the provision of the same constutution she wants to become Prime Minister for a not allowed third term [very much as in the US].
Leave pakistanis alone. They will find a solution that would work for them. And, do not worry about the nukes......the command and control there is securer and safer than in the US where a Nuclear armed aeroplane unauthorisedly flew the other day.
And, the more you will root for bhutto the greater will be the Pakistani anger as she has made statements about national matters which have not gone down well

Posted by: Mahmood Saeed | November 15, 2007 4:37 AM

It is wrong to say Pakistani commentators suport Musharraf while western ones do not. It is the other way around. Musharraf had to clamp down on the Pakistani media because of growing opposition to him. In any case, for Pakistanis Musharraf's domestic policies matter more while for foreigners it is all about foreign policy.

Musharraf has some residual support the rich and well-to-do from Pakistan, who occasionally post comments on blogs in his favor. But the truth is that Bush and Co have been nicer about Musharraf than a majority of Pakistanis. That is why Musharraf does not contest a free and fair election. he knows he will lose.

Posted by: Wasiq | November 15, 2007 1:30 AM

hmmm, it seems to me that all the writers who favor Musharrah, seem to be Pakistani, while those who oppose him are western. Maybe Musharrah has a cheering section that is looking for any editorials that "defame" there unelected Prez

Posted by: PH | November 14, 2007 9:52 PM

I think we need to find out about this lawyers movement. Common sense says judges and the rule of law should hold sway.

Posted by: SamEllison | November 14, 2007 8:40 PM

whats with all of this paranoia about pakistan's nuclear arsenal. it exists only to counterbalance india's nuclear stockpile. there is no concievable reason to believe that musharraf would even remotely consider its usage for any of the present troubles in central asia. it would be suicide. after all, with all that the pakistanis have done to extend their influence into afghanistan, why ruin a good work of art? musharraf has the white house right where he wants it, and bush must know this. any threat by the united states of any type of military action against the people of pakistan would only be highly counter-productive. the only reasonable solution would be to cancel all military contracts and any other further aid. this in and of itself might be the vital peg that needs to be knocked out from under musharraf's self constructed throne. nuclear threats just aren't in the cards. it is highly irresponsible, i believe, for the american media to portray the pakistani issue in any other light. it is paranoia sold to the american public on the cheap. the nuclear threat simply does not exist. mr. arkin should know better than this.

Posted by: lonewolf | November 14, 2007 5:30 PM

Re: Steven Upton's comments about taking Nuke Candy away from Pakistan.

I disagree with Steven. India needs Nukes to power balance with China and so does Pakistan to do the same with India, especially when India has a history of attacking Pakistan (1965 & 1972) long before Al-Qeda/Taliban allegations. But we can't make any similar argument for N. Korea or Iran to have Nukes, Islamic nation or not.

Posted by: Kenneth G | November 14, 2007 3:58 PM

Funny--I remember another leader who used the excuse of weapons of mass destruction to take away citizens' rights and to jail and torture his enemies.

Posted by: | November 14, 2007 3:21 PM

A deeper truth can be perceived only by illuminating the opposing sides of a paradox.

A common approach is to deny that the issue exists.

Ray Kurzweil, author, scientist and futurists.

We must consider every side of the argument rather than stayed locked into an American 'ideological position'. The latter is symbolic of thinking that has simply been shut down! We not robots yet!

Posted by: The Rev | November 14, 2007 2:45 PM

"A mindset based upon the assumption that nuclear threats trump every other concern is in some ways more dangerous than the fact of nuclear weapons themselves."

Really????

The writer does realize that Pakistan has not have any long term success with democracy. Nor does it have the institutions to support such a democracy (like an independent court that is not trying to take its Prime Ministers on for sport or separation of religion and state?) I submit to you that no democracy is possible without such a separation.

Ms Butto has Interpol charges over her head regarding money laundering in Swiss banks. The other PM option was in bed with Islamic fundamentalists.

so with all this madness, not to mention corruption - the original comment is just mind astoundingly naive.

All great civilizations ended because of arrogantly over extending itself and was brought down not from without but within. We in America have begun this great decline and we have not realized it.

Posted by: jncc1701 | November 14, 2007 2:36 PM

Its time to take the nuclear candy from Pakistan. The world will be much safer place with them not having the ability to the blow others and or themselfs

Posted by: Steven Upton | November 14, 2007 2:28 PM

Ordinary Pakistanis, the People on the Ground, are saying Emergency was approved by 387 Cabinet members of the current elected Government, the one which has far more credible track record of completing the 5-year term than the Bhutto's and Sharif's, each, two term Governments (all four terms lasting >5 years). Why isn't the Media telling us that? Emergency was enacted by Cabinet approval and that makes it legal even so Supreme Court being dissolved. CJ Chudary was asked to take oath and he refused to do so, and put himself out of business. We ask our Attorney Justice to step down when Congress demands tough answers like the firing of Pro Democratic DAs...so why it a problem if President Musharraf or Pakistani Cabinet asks CJ Chaudary to step down the post ?

Posted by: Sam Sheikh | November 14, 2007 2:25 PM

I think we are far to ignorant to intervene in the internal affairs of any country. Unforeseen consequences can easily come back and bite you. Self determination means each country and individual must take responsibility for their own future.

Posted by: P. J. Casey | November 14, 2007 1:27 PM

The people of Pakistan are fed up with corrupt politicians(Benazir and Sharif) and judges(Chaudary).They have failed us before and will do so again.They need new leadership which cannot evolve as long as the old guard stays in power.Musharraf is what Pakistani needs now to stave off the Islamofascists.The West needs to stop thrusting their brand of democracy down our throats.

Posted by: ortiz ramone | November 14, 2007 1:22 PM

Generaal is a simple but brave heart heart. He has not occuppied some foriegn country. Although the great democrates have done it. He is sweet dictator, we want him.

Posted by: Tariq Javed | November 14, 2007 1:07 PM

Mushsharaf is Bush's crony. Anti Bhutto news and Pro Musharraf news are being pumped out by the Neo Cons. It is obvious.

Posted by: Ron T | November 14, 2007 1:02 PM

Posted by: paklawyer | November 14, 2007 1:02 PM

The CJ was very bias, Favouring layers (his crusaders), was acting like a president and the whole court he has turned in to a new political party. I think if west live Pakistan alone (Like in the past) it will be fine in a couple of months. Pakistanies have no problem with emergency. Political Parties, been out of jobs last 8 yeras have problems.

Posted by: Awais | November 14, 2007 12:58 PM

A mindset based upon the assumption that nuclear threats trump every other concern is in some ways more dangerous than the fact of nuclear weapons themselves.


True:

However, given the way that some unnamed Americans think (Republicans); if the Republicans are re-elected to the presidency in the next general election, it will only be a matter of time before Pakistan will be invaded.

When? Probably in February 2008 - right after the innauguration ceremonies in Washington DC.

The two greatest Democracies of the world, both with their diverse religious groups will likely represent the coalition the willing in 2008 - France might even get in on the action this time.

Pakistan is far more dangerous than Iraq ever was, in my opinion!

Posted by: The Rev | November 14, 2007 12:56 PM

Musharraf's regime is spiralling towards self-destruction and nothing can prevent that. Pretty soon everyone in Pakistan will be under house-arrest. Pakistan's army is the only thing keeping Musharraf in power and as soon the army corps commanders come to the conclusion Pakistan is better off without him, he will be history.

Whoever succeeds him will need the army's backing. The country's nukes will remain perfectly safe and just as before, Pakistan will seek massive aid from the U.S. Most of the country's 170 million people will continue to live in poverty and nothing will really change much.

I give Mush another 2-3 weeks....

Posted by: The Strategist | November 14, 2007 12:55 PM

Too much forign interfaces!!!!!!!
Regardless of who is ruling Pakistan all are crooks, so West should back/deal Pakistani people not the crooks; instead of giving Billions of $$$$$$ for arms should build schools & hospitals which is good for everyone in the world. At the moment first priority should be restore the judiciary & medial controls media should not allow to host any lies as in the past Pakistan politicans (crooks) comes in lie in front of millions of people & harm Pakistan & lose their own crediablity.

Posted by: ZEB Khan | November 14, 2007 12:51 PM

Arkin writes:

"For the future, it is essential that we recognize what nuclear weapons do to us and our thinking. A mindset based upon the assumption that nuclear threats trump every other concern is in some ways more dangerous than the fact of nuclear weapons themselves."

Hmmm? Not sure what he's infering there.

That we have "nothing to fear but fear itself" perhaps?


Or perhaps he's accusing a particular PBR journalist of sensationalizing a story; e.g., trying to make more out Pakistan's current situation than is warranted. (Gasp!!!)

And couldn't you say the same thing about "war", e.g., a mindset based upon the assumption that the threat of 'war' trumps every other concern is in some ways more dangerous than the fact of 'war' itself?

And isn't that statement an unintentional shot at the "no nukes" faction?

Or perhaps he's just pointing out that the mainstream press is just as implicit in peddling "fear" to the same extent the Bush administration is accused of doing?

Posted by: Frank | November 14, 2007 12:44 PM

Backing dictators should never be part of American foreign policy, regardless of the apparent pragmatic benefits ascribed to it. The historical evidence (pre-revolution in Iran, Indonesia, Viet Nam, many African countries) gives lie to such twisted logic. America, like France, once stood for the true savior of the down-trodden: democratic revolution. Where are these shining beacons of western ideology now? The Statue of Liberty once held that beacon, shining with a light from within, symbol of the power that comes from within a free and equal populace. Yes we still have the statue, but close examination will reveal that the torch no longer is lit from within. It is covered with gold, and illuminated by spotlights which cry, "Admire ME!!" When the West remembers what drove the French Revolution, the Magna Carta, and the American Constitution, then it will see that the only choice is to give the much suffering people of Pakistan the support they need to overthrow the patrician subjugation of Musharraf, and the army that he wields like a cudgel. He should never be given the space to claim that what he is doing is supporting 'law and order', as he has multiple times proven that there is no rule of law in his regime, beyond holding to power with a death grip.

Posted by: No Feer | November 14, 2007 12:40 PM

It was not possible without taking US on board.

Posted by: David | November 14, 2007 12:36 PM

Two wrongs don't make one right. Bhutto has no right to go for elections again for the PM seat, because the same Constitution She is referencing to ask President Musharraf to step down, makes it illegal for her or ANY Ex-PM to go for the 3rd term. This is very similar for us here in the US for our Presidential Seat. So Why are we asking ANYONE in Pakistan to allow Bhutto to go for the PM Seat for the 3rd time knowing we can't ask the same to ourselves or our Congress to allow our President to go for a 3rd term even under the Iraq War pretext ?

Posted by: Sam Sheikh | November 14, 2007 12:30 PM

Thank you, William Arkin for calling Danial Schorr on what occurred to me upon hearing it as a rambling collection of unrelated facts ending in what appeared to be an argument in favor of General Musharraf because, without him, terrorists would have nuclear weapons. The strongest force in Pakistan is the military--with or without Musharraf. Neither it, or the vast majority of Pakistanis--including the major political parties, and the protesting lawyers and judges--have any interest in the type of chaos even a nuclear accident could cause to their country. Contrary to stereotypes, Muslims as a whole do not have a death wish for themselves and their families. To suggest democracy in Pakistan would bring either Pakistan or the world closer to a nuclear holocaust is absurd. What is wrong with Schorr?

Posted by: John M. Poswall | November 14, 2007 12:30 PM

Its you Americans who are paranoid about Pakistan's nukes, not Pakistanis.

Posted by: Aamir | November 14, 2007 12:26 PM

When lawyers and journalists are being beaten & arrested, you know something very wrong is happening.

I'd like to know why we're still sending Musharrif's government money, & why Bush came out backing this despot? Both need to quit fast. Haven't we had enough PR disasters for one administration yet?

Posted by: Newt | November 14, 2007 12:21 PM

mush has changed the goal posts so many times that they have become totally un recognisable..he has brain washed the US on Taleban by convincing them that he is part of a solution rather than the problem himself...what were the three battalions of Pak army doing in Afghanistan (another soverign nation) on the eve of the US attack after 9/11 ..has anyone got answer to that..what makes US so convinced that another Kargil is not in the offing in reverse on their own nation Pakistan by fooling the whole world on SWAT..what makes america so sure that the nukes are not assembled already..remember this al qaeda has no country and no clear sponsorship..where will the world retaliate if there was a scenario of a nuke attack in the name of al qaeda although the whole world knows their head quarters are not very far from jacobabad (350kms on right angle)..he can keep on black mailing the powers of the world but the time is not on our side any more..the actions should now be taken in hours and not in days...

Posted by: riven | November 14, 2007 12:19 PM

Musharraf just has one agenda i.e. to remain in power whatsoever!!! He was about to lose power due to the imminent judgement against his presidential election while in Army uniform on Nov 15th. He threw the Chief Justice of Supreme court out along with the bench of Supreme court. Its all his ego. all this for just one man...what a pity!

Posted by: OT | November 14, 2007 12:00 PM

Safia: "If west cant restore our judiciary,it should stop backing Mush,we will do the job ourselves."


If you do it without Benazir Bhutto, you will, at the current juncture in history, get 0 (zero) support from the West.

She is the West's "Great White Hope":
http://www.google.com/search?&q=define%3Agreat+white+hope&btnG=Search

...and like Saddam, if she gains power, she will be used in a similar manner.

Don't think the U.S. and their 'coalition' wouldn't let her opposition put here head in a noose if she fails in her task...

They don't like killing women & children, unless they stand in the way of "National Security".

Securing Western interests in Pakistan, and those interests go far beyond nukes, the talib, AQ, and their bogus war on terror (War on indigenous cultures that stand in the way of Western energy security is more accurate nomenclature) is the imperative.

Posted by: Da' Buffalo | November 14, 2007 11:58 AM

Thanx God,some one is there to say that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is not a cake that any terrorist could have it and eat it too.I dont agree with Arki that Bhutto's return has anything to do with martial law on Pakistan.The sole aim of martial law was to curb the lawyers'movement,lock down the independent judiciary and rein in the free media.U can see urself.Our judjes hav been detained,lawyers are being rounded up and media is blacked out.
Is that democratic face of Musharraf that the west and the US back?I protest!Down with Musharraf,we want our pre 3rd november judiciary back.If west cant restore our judiciary,it should stop backing Mush,we will do the job ourselves.


safia maria
Pakistan

Posted by: safia maria | November 14, 2007 11:39 AM

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