War with Iran is a Matter of Words
Earlier this week, the nuclear-powered USS Enterprise carrier strike group concluded a three-day, multi-unit, intense exercise in the North Arabian Sea -- an exercise that included two stealthy Tomahawk cruise missile carrying attack submarines!
It didn't receive mention in the mainstream press. And it wasn't discussed in the blogosphere. But, if it had been, it very likely would have been framed as one more piece of evidence that the Bush administration appears to be marching toward war with Tehran. Sure, the media would note that the Navy said, "This was a routine training exercise to help our forces maintain a full-range of readiness." But that wouldn't dissuade the true believers from thinking that pre-emptive war is near.
Except that it isn't.
I've written earlier that the Pentagon leadership has been trying to squelch the notion of impending war. And, lately, an Financial Times interview with the commander of U.S. military forces in the Middle East has been getting a lot of attention.
Adm. William "Fox" Fallon told the FT that a strike on Iran was not "in the offing." "Getting Iranian behavior to change and finding ways to get them to come to their senses and do that is the real objective," he said. "Attacking them as a means to get to that spot strikes me as being not the first choice in my book."
Fallon, of course, did not rule out war. And his book is not necessarily the one that the Bush team would read should it decide to take action.
More interesting is another comment Fallon made: "None of this is helped by the continuing stories that just keep going around and around and around that any day now there will be another war which is just not where we want to go."
And, in a second article, the FT quoted him saying, "It astounds me that so many pundits and others are spending so much time yakking about this topic."
Amen.
In the lede of this post, I purposefully described the naval exercise as "intense," used the words "strike" and "attack," and mentioned the Tomahawk cruise missile -- even though none were employed. Those words aren't inaccurate. But they are misleading and inflammatory. My point is that even a piece about how exaggeration and overstatement is transforming this debate can contribute to the drumbeat for war.
How about, instead: "The USS Enterprise, and its group of ships and submarines, finished routine anti-submarine training off the coast of Pakistan and Oman earlier this week, as the aircraft carrier completes its Indian Ocean mission and prepares to head home." See?
By William M. Arkin |
November 16, 2007; 8:15 AM ET
Iran
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Posted by: The Rev | November 19, 2007 11:34 AM
Rev, I gonna have to go with your BFF here; A Chinese sub going undetected in the midst of a US Carrier Group? With all that Olympics stuff painted on the sides of that tin can? Hardly likely!
Posted by: trog69
Thank you trog69.
1). The world is watching us given our recent behaviors. Frankly, not every nation is comfortable with the aggressive policies that have been recently implemented by the USA, against other nations.
2). If, as a nation, we are so supercilious, we might get caught with our pants down just as we were on 911, by some unexpected source, and when the U.S.S. Cole was attacked by a speedboat in the Port of Yemen.
2). Another writer who quotes the Federation of American Scientists, overlooks the fact that other nations are developing their destructive technologies, secretly!
3). It is a boon to other nations of the world like China, for the U.S.A. to continue to undevervalue their abilities based upon what has too often been shown to be, faulty intelligence.
4). In America, we may continue to brag about the fact that other nations are afraid of American technology, however, other nations like Russia for example, that sent Sputnik into outer space turned out not to be smucks, after all!
Given that they other nation sreportedly do not have the technological expertise that we have in America, does that suggest that they are perhaps smarter, given that they manage to get the job done somehow.
In the story of David, he reportedly took down Goliath with a stone and a sling-shot. We have already lost the WTC - I say that being concerned about a Chinese submarine, managing to show up during an America operation is something to give one pause, misguided sycophants notwithstanding!
Posted by: The Rev | November 19, 2007 11:29 AM
You need to invent some other scenario to feed your hysteria and drive your fears. The one you made up isn't going to happen!
Just another reason you're an idiot.
Rev's an idiot
Clearly, you either don't like clerics, me or my positions. However, in response to your soliloquy which did not address the points that I made at all, the commanders who were in charge of the joint operation have already apologized for allowing a Chineese submarine to go undected and pentetrate the operation!
And don't forget, the Chinese have been around for at least 4 millenia, they are not as naiive as you have stated - they were responsible for the inception of many of the technologies that you and I are using today. For example, what time is it now?
And if you will check further, the Chinese are spending billions of dollars to upgrade their military, military technology and submarines.
And with respect to fears: I don't fear Iran, Iraq or even the Chinese, but frankly individuals like you (who claim to be Americans) really do concern me!
Posted by: The Rev | November 19, 2007 10:59 AM
I trust nothing of what this man Arkin says about our military one way or the other. He did, after all, accuse our servicemen of being "mercenaries." Zero credibility in terms of analysis or understanding.
Posted by: Rjack | November 19, 2007 10:25 AM
tadpushy wrote:
"If the 5th Fleet does a strategic strike against some Iranian sites don't be real surprised if the Iranians strike back against the 5th Fleet and with devastating results. The Iranians have cruise missiles the US isn't prepared to defend against."
Iran's Silkworm missiles aren't much of a deterrent to attack on the nuclear sites. Sirkworms are old technology, fire from fixed locations, are slow, and don't have much range. They are more useful against civilian tanker traffic than modern warships. In the unlikely event of an attack against Iran's nuke sites, our carriers needn't be within range any land-based missile threat. At the first sign of Iranian intent to use their Silkworms, the best defense would be to drop a few JDAMs on the launch sites.
Posted by: trashhauler | November 19, 2007 4:46 AM
I have to agree with AIA. Bush has only got a little over a year to get oil prices up to a level satisfactory to his backers - not to mention his relatives. $200/barrel anyone?
Posted by: felicity | November 17, 2007 3:39 PM
Again: Has anyone read another source for this statement in PostGlobal, or any contextual background for it?
"The National Intelligence Estimate on the Iranian nuclear program will not be made public and the intelligence chief has threatened to resign if the US Administration "cherry picks" intelligence to suit their causes."
Posted by: Mark in Austin | November 17, 2007 11:19 AM
"It didn't receive mention in the mainstream press."
Arkin gets excited about a non-existent reaction from the press and fabricates an entire column about it. The war rhetoric and provocative military operations do not come from the press - they come from the Bush administration.
Posted by: skeptonomist | November 17, 2007 10:51 AM
Rev, I gonna have to go with your BFF here; A Chinese sub going undetected in the midst of a US Carrier Group? With all that Olympics stuff painted on the sides of that tin can? Hardly likely!
Posted by: trog69 | November 17, 2007 10:43 AM
Why not attack israel-it has a formidable nuclear arsenal and it started all the wars in the region and is an occupier.
Why should a war be contemplated on Iran just on what might be intentions to have nuclear weapons-and Iran has never aggressed upon nor is she occupying any one's land.
israel is the only danger to the entire region and keeps repeating that,like the US under Truman,it can use nuclear weapons.
Posted by: Asim MA, San Antonio | November 17, 2007 8:59 AM
PostGlobal says:
"The National Intelligence Estimate on the Iranian nuclear program will not be made public and the intelligence chief has threatened to resign if the US Administration "cherry picks" intelligence to suit their causes."
I cannot find another source for this.
Anybody see another source?
A good sign, if true.
Posted by: Mark in Austin | November 17, 2007 8:46 AM
If the 5th Fleet does a strategic strike against some Iranian sites don't be real surprised if the Iranians strike back against the 5th Fleet and with devastating results. The Iranians have cruise missiles the US isn't prepared to defend against.
Posted by: Tadpushy | November 17, 2007 7:47 AM
Mr. Arkin focuses on those "pundits...yakking" about an Iran strike, and fails to note the inflammatory rhetoric emerging from our Vice President and his minions.
Anyone who doesn't take Mr. Cheney's war-drumming seriously, hasn't been paying attention.
Posted by: al75 | November 17, 2007 6:58 AM
if arkin wants to blame somebody for the fear of war with iran, let him blame bush and cheney. it's their rhetoric, including talk of world war 3, that's caused people around the world to worry that bush will attack iran before he leaves office. and when he says that the u.s. must go all out to prevent iran even from having the knowledge to make atom bombs, something that iran and dozens of other countries already have, it convinces a lot of people that bush intends war. let arkin put the blame where it belongs.
Posted by: samg | November 17, 2007 12:38 AM
Ahmadinejad is consolidating power, his men are now chief nuclear negotiator and oil minister. Moderate voices are being labeled traitors and our professional military people realize that the rhetoric isn't working. Back off on the rhetoric, create a little breathing space and stop a mistake from turning into war. Right so far Arkin.
Posted by: SamEllison | November 16, 2007 11:33 PM
Rev,
According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) , (http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/02/post_2.php) the Chinese submarine fleet is virtually dormant, averaging one patrol every three years for each submarine. Heck, the entire PLAN submarine fleet did only 2 patrols in the all of 2006 - both close to home waters in the Western Pacific!
The Federation of American Scientists summary of PLAN capabilities is "... Chinese submarine crews appear to have relatively little operational experience and consequently limited skills in operating their boats safely and competently. It suggests that the tactical skills that would be needed for the Chinese submarine force to operate effectively in a war may be limited.
China continues - at least for now - to use its submarine force as a coastal defense force."
Bottom Line - it's nearly impossible for an unskilled 'coastal defense force' to take a diesel-electric submarine a quarter-of-a-world away into the Northern Arabian Gulf.
China has never deployed submarines into the Indian Ocean. And you know why? Because they can't!
You need to invent some other scenario to feed your hysteria and drive your fears. The one you made up isn't going to happen!
Just another reason you're an idiot.
Posted by: Rev's an idiot | November 16, 2007 6:16 PM
Chinese Submarine and the Carrier Group:
Is this the same crack carrier strike group that experienced, undetected, a Chinese submarine appearing in the midst of its ongoing naval exercise recently?
Whichever group it was, could it be a portent of things to come, i.e, that while America is busily menacing and focusing its intentions on 3-rd world nations like Iran, more formidable nations like China will be inserting themselves, undetected, in the fray?
Now which 'big brother' I ask, is watching who? In other words, the Chinese having shown up - was not an accident.
And I suspect that if the Chinese show up in the future, they won't be coming to deliver mammouth orders of pork fried rice to the American battle groups!
Posted by: The Rev | November 16, 2007 2:57 PM
neo-con can not wage waer caused by americans awareness of aipac lobby.america is in deep dept and people as a majareity are getting poorer,so america must build and rebuild trust.in 2 years democrat has power,i hope do not any talk to aipac but be a real soical DEMOCRAT and bring back wellfair to......
Posted by: bidar | November 16, 2007 2:38 PM
Iran and the US have made a deal to keep up the rhertoric to keep the price of oil at all time high. Its good for iran and its good for Bush's buddies in the oil sector.
Its about money and oil and nothing else
Posted by: AlA | November 16, 2007 1:05 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.

Rev, I gonna have to go with your BFF here; A Chinese sub going undetected in the midst of a US Carrier Group? With all that Olympics stuff painted on the sides of that tin can? Hardly likely!
Posted by: trog69
Thank you trog69.
1). The world is watching us given our recent behaviors. Frankly, not every nation is comfortable with the aggressive policies that have been recently implemented by the USA, against other nations.
2). If, as a nation, we are so supercilious, we might get caught with our pants down again just as we did on 9/11, by some unexpected source, and when the U.S.S. Cole was attacked by a speedboat in the Port of Yemen.
2). Another writer who quotes the Federation of American Scientists, overlooks the fact that other nations are developing their destructive technologies, secretly!
3). It is a boon to other nations of the world like China, for the U.S.A. to continue to undevervalue their abilities based upon what has too often been shown to be, faulty intelligence.
4). In America, we may continue to brag about the fact that other nations are afraid of American technology, however, other nations like Russia for example, that sent Sputnik into outer space turned out not to be smucks, after all!
Given that other nations,arguably, do not possess the technological expertise that we have in America, does that suggest that they are perhaps smarter, given that they manage to get the job done somehow?
In the story of David, he reportedly took down Goliath with a stone and a sling-shot.
We have already lost the WTC - I say that being concerned about a Chinese submarine, managing to show up during an America operation is something to give one pause, misguided sycophants notwithstanding!
The Idiot Rev