The Special Relationship
The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is shaping up to have profound effects on the U.S.-Israeli security relationship.
Israel firmly disagrees with the estimate's conclusion that Iran has abandoned its nuclear weapons program. It's preparing a high-level briefing to make its case -- and it's threatening to take matters into its own hands if the U.S. continues to be blind to Iran's pursuits.
This weekend, according to The Jerusalem Post, Adm. Michael Mullen will make a "rare visit" to Israel -- the first by a U.S. Joint Chiefs chairman in a decade -- to meet with Israeli military intelligence.
Israeli intelligence claims, according again to The Jerusalem Post, that Iran will "cross the technological threshold within six months" and be able to develop a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Tuesday that Iran probably did halt its weapons program in 2003 - but probably started it again soon after. On Israeli Army Radio, he declared: "It is our responsibility to ensure that the right steps are taken against the Iranian regime. As is well known, words don't stop missiles." Meanwhile, Israel's premier newspaper Haaretz ran an analysis piece headlined "Iran laughing at US lack of nuclear intelligence."
The difference between U.S. and Israeli projections for Iran's nuclear capability is really only a matter of a few years - the NIE predicts that Iran could have enough enriched fissile material for a bomb between 2010 and 2015, maybe somewhat later.
But the issue here goes much deeper.
There was a time when the U.S. had an almost dreamy regard for Israel's military establishment: lightning victories on the battlefield, ruthless pursuit of its enemies, intelligence agencies worthy of great deference.
Indeed, in Iraq and in the war on terrorism, the U.S. military in many ways tried to emulate Israeli security. It initiated a head-hunting counterterrorism strategy. It looked to Israel for advice on "urban warfare" and counterinsurgency tactics. You could even say that the bomb-first-ask-questions-later invasion of Iraq was an Israeli-style invasion.
But the frustrations and failures in Iraq forced the U.S. military to reconsider the pre-eminence of Israeli tactics. And so the U.S. has shifted away from targeted terrorist assassinations and toward strategies that do more to address the sources of terrorism. Gen. David Petraeus ushered in an entirely new counterinsurgency strategy. And many leaders in the U.S. military establishment have come to realize that bomb-first-ask-questions-later may help set back nuclear programs (when they actually exist) but it does not create a lasting peace.
For the U.S., there's been a learning process. But Israel, even after it was befuddled and confused by Hezbollah in 2006, still holds fast to its core security strategies.
Israel may be right about Iran. And it may have had intelligence gold when it conducted a surgical strike in Syria in September, allegedly destroying a nuclear facility. This weekend will be about differences between Israeli and U.S. intelligence. But the other question, this weekend and in the coming months and years, will be whether Israel might be able to listen to alternative American voices and recognize that pursuing different strategies might better secure its own peace.
By William M. Arkin |
December 7, 2007; 8:12 AM ET
Intelligence
, Iran
, Israel
, Nuclear Weapons
, War on Terrorism
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Posted by: htzhsah0lz | December 22, 2007 11:27 AM
The dangerous area of the middle East should be kept free and clean of all nuclear weapons. Israel,who threatens all its neighbors and occupies their land by military force, was the first country to build its own nuclear arsenal. Consequently Iran and most likely other neighboring coutries feel threatened by the Israeli nuclear power and they will definitely try to offset it by building their own.The only way to keep this area clean of any nuclear weapons is to disband and remove the Israeli nuclear arsenal first.Otherwise it would be the utmost hypocrisy to turn a blind eye to the Israeli nuclear program and at the same time stop others from doing the same to defend themselves.
Posted by: SAM | December 14, 2007 4:40 PM
The dangerous area of the middle East should be kept free and clean of all nuclear weapons. Israel,who threatens all its neighbors and occupies their land by military force, was the first country to build its own nuclear arsenal. Consequently Iran and most likely other neighboring coutries feel threatened by the Israeli nuclear power and they will definitely try to offset it by building their own.The only way to keep this area clean of any nuclear weapons is to disband and remove the Israeli nuclear arsenal first.Otherwise it would be the utmost hypocrisy to turn a blind eye to the Israeli nuclear program and at the same time stop others from doing the same to defend themselves.
Posted by: SAM | December 14, 2007 4:38 PM
By the way Israel destroyed most of the Arab Armies on the ground, how is it possible that Israel was attacked by the Arabs? Even Israeli historians called the six day war an Israeli preemptive attack just like Bush's preemptive war. ISRAEL WAS ATTACKED IN 1967, LIKE AMERICA ATTACKED JAPAN ON PEARL HARBOR. NO HONEST HISTORIAN ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD BELIEVES THAT ISRAEL WAS ATTACKED IN 1967, ISRAEL FIRED THE FIRST SHOT:
1. 1967 WAS THE EASIEST OF ISRAEL'S WARS WITH THE ARABS THE ARABS WHERE CAUGHT COMPLETELY BY SURPRISE
2. THE VAST MAJORITY OF ARAB AIRFORCES' WHERE DESTROYED ON THE GROUND.
3. READ ANY NON ULTRARIGHTWING SOURCE AND EVEN FROM ISRAELI HISTORIANS AND THEY WILL TELL YOU ISRAEL FIRED THE FIRST SHOTS
4. ISRAEL WANTED JERUSALEM AND RESENTED NOTE BEING AWARDED TOTAL CONTROL OF IT BY THE 1947 PARTITION, THEY ALWAYS HAD DESIGNS ON IT, LOOK HOW HARD THEY ARE FIGHTING TO KEEP THE ARABS COMPLETELY OUT OF ANY SOVEREIGNTY IN JERUSALEM.
Posted by: farzad | December 11, 2007 10:01 PM
==The Israeli Army got hold of plutonium AFTER they were attack in the 1967 six-day war, and long after the fact that the Muslim world had made it abundantly clear that they intended to wipe them off of the map==
Was there anything that happened during the Six Day War that convinced Israel that it was vulnerable from the Arab armies?
Did not Six Day War go down in the history books as the stunning and complete victory of Israeli armor over combined militaries of the entire Arab world?
Didn't Israel gain substantial territory during the Six Day War, including the coveted Jerusalem?
Weren't Arab militaries humiliated during their defeat in the Six Day War?
Why would Israeli conclusion after the resounding victory of the Six Day War be to arm themselves with nuclear weapons?
Hmm?
Posted by: Dimitry | December 11, 2007 4:45 PM
Yes, Israel has nukes. And they have American weapons too, as well as weapons of their own design. The Israeli Army got hold of plutonium AFTER they were attack in the 1967 six-day war, and long after the fact that the Muslim world had made it abundantly clear that they intended to wipe them off of the map. Is everybody forgetting this most-important preamble to this one-sided discussion? Again, No Fudgies!!
Doubless - you will attempt to take issue with the veracity of history. But history is embedded in the world's documentation. U.N. resolutions existed to provide for a two state solution in Palestine before the local Muslims vetoed it by starting the 1947-48 war. The Muslims were again offered a two state solution in the Oslo accords, but violence from their radical elements made sure the two-state solution went off the table again. In the meantime, Israel has faced documented threats from Hezbollah (an Iranian backed group), as well as direct threats from Iran to wipe Israel off the map. The threat to Israel is real. If you don't think so, hang out on the northern border when the Katyushka rockets start falling again.
But, as related to the United States and its policy in the area, we have to take account of the fact that the area is already nuclear, and the fact that certain groups in the region mean to inflict serious harm on others. Under these circumstances, we can't afford to make mistakes, and we don't have the luxury of mistakenly assuming someone has less firepower than they do. Thus, the fact that NIE states that Iran once had a nuclear weapons program is still sufficient ground to be concerned. The fact the NIE is uncertain as to whether Iran intends to restart its nuclear weapons program is equally troubling, especially since we know they haven't stopped enriching uranium.
More troubling yet, is the fact that France and Germany, our erstwhile allies, and oftentime friends of Islamic nations, are both critical of the NIE regarding Iran's nuclear program. Both believe we have underestimated Iran's capabilities and intentions. The intelligence agencies of both countries are quite good, in which case we cannot assume their criticism is unfounded. The same is true of Israel, which is quite positive that Iran's nuclear program has re-started (if, indeed, it ever stopped), and is proceeding apace.
Not knowing is not a basis upon which to formulate a policy of passivism. If Iran has a nuclear weapons program in progress and a breeder reactor on line, we can't simply throw up our hand's and say there's nothing to be done simply because we don't have the intelligence to support these conclusions. The first thing we must do is find out what's going on one way or another. Until our fears are assuaged by positive evidence - we should assume they continue to pose a threat.
What would I like to see? If Iran opens the doors and allows an ongoing inspection from an number of different nations for a long period of time. Do EVERYTHING they can to dispell any possible chance of such weapon material or weapon to be found. But have they ventured such a notion? Are they trying to be transparent and honest? Are they willing top say ''well, it was a bad idea to let nations speculate as to the possible implications of creating a nuke arsenal. It would be best for the people of our country to not be so adversely affected with our selfish need to keep up with this charade...'' Could they still do this? Yes. Have they? No. They remain on a dangerous course of their own self-determination to create ambiguity and mistrust. This is clearly of their own making.
Posted by: plainfacto | December 11, 2007 12:09 AM
East is East and West is West...
The fact of the matter is that we will always have individuals in America who will embrace the beliefs, and encourage the initiatives set upon by the Bush Administration - they believe in what Bush has done and what he is currently doing.
And what is so hilarious about this, is their anti-crime status. Chuckle, chuckle...! How about crimes against humanity?
Just think about how long Cheney, Rumsfeld and others waited until they could grab hold of America's military, economic and political power, and pursue the politics of destrruction of mayhem, that they have enaged in for the past 5 years now.
America needs its visionaries to step up and be counted, or we will experience much of what we have been experiencing by this administration and its supporters, for years to come!
Israel and the U.S.A. are on a mission of survival at costs, regardless, of how many innocents are needlessly destroyed in the interim!
The Earth belongs to every being, not just Israel and the United States - the Earth was not 'made in America!
Posted by: The Rev | December 10, 2007 2:07 PM
==Yet, at the end of the day, we still don't know enough to warrant a policy change one way or another, making our continued policy of pressuring Iran while leaving the dipomatic door open our best option as we try to answer some of the many questions raised by this most recent NIE.==
This would suggest, Archimedes, that our current Iran policy, likely formed with untrustworthy knowledge, should continue, because we don't trust our knowledge.
Again, I must implore you to study logic, instead of political expediency.
Posted by: Dimitry | December 10, 2007 11:59 AM
Ken, you are an idiot.
Posted by: stusoto | December 10, 2007 10:02 AM
The dangerous area of the middle East should be kept free and clean of all nuclear weapons. Israel,who threatens all its neighbors and occupies their land by military force, was the first country to build its own nuclear arsenal. Consequently Iran and most likely other neighboring coutries feel threatened by the Israeli nuclear power and they will definitely try to offset it by building their own.The only way to keep this area clean of any nuclear weapons is to disband and remove the Israeli nuclear arsenal first.Otherwise it would be the utmost hypocrisy to turn a blind eye to the Israeli nuclear program and at the same time stop others from doing the same to defend themselves.
Posted by: SAM | December 10, 2007 9:38 AM
Israel's agenda in the Middle East is not the same as that of United States. That is the real issue- many in this country are finally waking up to the real costs associated with blind support of Israel's hegemonic aspirations in the region. Note how those closely aligned with Israel are already attempting to discredit the NIE report on Iran. The recent editorial in the Wall Street Journal, for example, should have been read: "printed in Jerusalem." I can, with all certainty, state that those attacking the NSA on its latest report on Iran have either close financial or political ties to Israel. Rather than have an America engaged with the region on the basis of equality and mutual self interest- the Israel First crowd shares the same agenda as al-Qaida- American isolation and absolute dependence on Israel. It is fascinating to this reader that bin-Ladin greated the U.S. invasion of Iraq with the same level of enthusiasm of Bill Kristol, Wolfowitz, Feith, Pearle, Libby- an the rest of pro-Israeli cabal stationed at the AEI and the Brookings Institute (the laughable Saban Center for Middle East Studies!). Again I ask the question- Hasn't the time come for an American First foreign policy? Can any one tell me how impoverishing 3/12 million Palestinians while Israel seizes more of their land is in this country's strategic interest? How bombing Lebanon to destruction advances my country's agenda? How killing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and more than 3,000 American dead made this country more secure? How isolating Iran- a country that has reached out the U.S. more than once in the last seven years- has secured our interests in the region. Sadly, the same cast of characters genuflect at AIPAC' annual conference- gloating all the while as U.S. sovereignty is surrendered.
Posted by: andrew | December 10, 2007 7:42 AM
What really matters to the United States...
is its own survival. And as long as America has a strategic military partner in the Middle (Israel, Saudi Arabia, or Iran), they will enjoy America's support - whomever they may happen to be.
I am certain that such knowledge has not been lost on the Israeli's!
Posted by: The Rev | December 10, 2007 12:06 AM
reu:Israel will wither be at peace with the rest of the world, or it will be dead.
- "Rest of the world" ? Better re-check yr math.There are approx 194 nations on the planet soooo Israel has no problems with 98% of the world or 99.99% of the population on this planet, but it does have problems with two countries and a handful of unreasonable terrorist who want to wipe it into the ocean.
And trust me, if these two countries make an attempt to follow thru on there goals , they will be "dead".
Posted by: Alex | December 9, 2007 6:27 PM
I do not however believe for a minute that the situation is any where close to unresolvable. Nor do I believe it will ever be 'unresolvable'. It is simply that the prices that the Israeli and Palestine peoples will eventually pay for bad policies and stalemated governments will continue to escalate.
The same is true for the United States. That the US and Israel have been the types of allies that support each other in it's weakness's rather than our strengths really has much more to do with the types of electoral and political systems the two countries have adopted rather than any individual shortcomings.
Having said all that, I both enjoyed with and agree with most of the commentaries analysis. Israel will en eventually pay far greater prices (potentially including being wiped from the map) had it reached reasonable compromise with the Palestinians earlier. The same is true of the Palestinians refusal to accept reasonable peace offers from Israel.
Israel is about 60 years old now. Does anyone with an IQ above 60 believe it will reach 100 without someone in the middle east getting their hands on serious weapons of mass destruction?
Israel will wither be at peace with the rest of the world, or it will be dead.
Posted by: reussere | December 9, 2007 5:39 PM
Benjamin Netanyahu..., and his ilk
do not care what the people of the U.S.A. believe..., they only want American support, its arms and weaponry!
We can afford to transport all of the Jewish people in Palestine to America - we will give them the state of Montana.
Then their will be peace in the world!! Neither Israel or America, has the right to deny other nations the same rights that both nations, Israel and America have enjoyed - if not taken advantage of themselves!
Are both our nations the true, fascists, cictating to the ROW, what they can and cannot do?
Posted by: The Rev | December 9, 2007 10:33 AM
Lets take the long view.One commentor correctly wrote that Israel has been fighting off attackers for 50 years, using bomb- and -strafe first,extremely harsh retaliatory destruction tactics.As was written, this has resulted in many multiples of terrorists arrayed against her, now with access to sophisticated technology with destructive capability beyound imagination even 20 years ago.And,predictably, the radicalism has not abated;if anything,it has increased.It may be too late for Israel to negotiate any kind of reasonable peace.Rabin foresaw this eventuality, which is why he " gave" so much,including his life, in the peace negotiations.In fact, he was buying far more than he was giving.Now Israel must accept the fact that it must come to terms with her millions of Arab neighbors in the region;and who do not agree that God gave this land to the Jews of the world,who by virtue of having a Jewish mother,thereby inherited a messianic right to confiscate the land from the Arabs and re-settle themselves and their families there.So Israel will of course always and forever feel the threat of Arabs obtaining the knowledge to construct all kinds of deadly weapons-or obtain them from the great arms merchant of the world, the US government.And doctorate degrees in nuclear physics are available in great universities all over the world.It is only a matter of time.So,here are the realities:
1) Israel is in a life and death struggle with its neighbors from which it can not extricate itself without destroying itself. [The saw about the scorpion on the back of the frog who stings and kills his host mid-river,drowning both,
comes to mind].
2)The time for a reasonable settlement reached through negotiation has passed.
Israel refused early, comprehensive settlement with its new neighbors, because it and its ally, the US, were all-powerful, militarily speaking.Ironically, that is precisly when it could have saved herself from this predicament.
3)Terrorists,(or patriots-remember,Rabin once planted bombs)will obtain and use all manner of weapons of great destructive power;
4)Israel may have to think about the unthinkable--some resettlement within Israel and new boundaries.This could have been avoided 20 years ago- not now;
5)The US will re-assess matters as per above, and no longer blindly follow Israeli policy;
6)Israel must deal with its neighbors on this issue re Iran and nuclear weapons,the way it traditionaly has on matters concerning its security-on her own; and must suffer the consequences on her own.
7) MOST IMPORTANTLY, the US must view with extreme scepticism any intel from Israel, else we find ourselves snookered again,ie Iraq.
Posted by: theopaine | December 9, 2007 7:30 AM
Oh its a sad day when the U.S./Israel can't control the actions of a bunch of brown people in the Middle East. Can't US/Israel see these folks want to run their own countries, make their own decisions, without the interference of the West? I suggest you all get used to not knowing whats really going on in the M.E., because its none of your business! Israel is looking out for Israel as it must, and always has. They have an interest in keeping the Arabs, Persians, etc. down, after all they're living on borrowed time...and stolen land. Our interest is really only oil, and whatever the Israeli lobby tells us. Its so sad, watching our kids go off to die for a bunch of fat cats that couldn't be bothered with military service themselves. So gas up, get into that new SUV, buy your kids some more asthma medicine, as you send them to shools that teach them how to take tests, and don't forget to buy buy buy, and check out the new TV line up for 2008. Watch our beloved country go down the tubes...just for a few bucks.
Posted by: Beegmo | December 8, 2007 12:06 PM
Israel wants America to subjugate the middle east and force the people in the middle east to accept Israeli military domination of the Palestinians and to accept Israeli theft of their land. Never have the victims of oppression been treated more poorly by the western world than the Palestinians. And Israel will not stop until all powerful and independent regional actors are cowed before Zionism. They failed miserably to defang Hizbullah, and now they want their American clients to defeat Iran for them, of course with American blood and treasure. Oh by the way Israel has been saying Iran is 2 years from building a nuclear weapon for about 15 years. How drole that the Israelis that have been making the same prediction about Iran for nearly two decades have a problem with our intel assessments. They have been publicly selling the same line to our pro-Israeli and unquestioning media since the early 90s.
Posted by: farzad | December 8, 2007 11:33 AM
Oh its a sad day when the U.S./Israel can't control the actions of a bunch of brown people in the Middle East. Can't US/Israel see these folks want to run their own countries, make their own decisions, without the interference of the West? I suggest you all get used to not knowing whats really going on in the M.E., because its none of your business! Israel is looking out for Israel as it must, and always has. They have an interest in keeping the Arabs, Persians, etc. down, after all they're living on borrowed time...and stolen land. Our interest is really only oil, and whatever the Israeli lobby tells us our interests are. Its so sad, watching our kids go off to die for a bunch of fat cats that couldn't be bothered with military service themselves. So gas up, get into that new SUV, buy your kids some more asthma medicine, as you send them to shools that teach them how to take tests, and don't forget to buy buy buy, and check out the new TV line up for 2008. Watch our beloved country go down the tubes...just for a few bucks.
Posted by: Beegmo | December 8, 2007 9:07 AM
Now watch for AIPAC's (the Jewish-Israeli lobby) counter-strategy to move into high gear.
Posted by: Eric Yendall | December 8, 2007 1:54 AM
Read the book shadow warriors by the guy who got the noble peace prize for braking the story on Iran's nuke program to begin with. He said there were groups with in the Intelligence agency and state department that have been leaking info to undermine bush from the beginning, and the war's in Iraq, and Afghanistan in spite of the fact they where costing American lives in the process.
This isn't new either it has always happened those with different ideology that can't put their ego's aside for the good of the country. It's human nature not a conspiracy the same reason we have different denominations, and religions.
Not because there a multiple truths because we can't let go of our personal interests that color the way we interpret the facts to find the one truth.
These people who are bush haters are doing what they have to do discredit Bush no mater what happens they can't help themselves so they present the facts that support what they want to be true, or want us to believe is true. Then the Bush hating media does what it has to do and run with it. They can't see past their personal feelings to see the danger they putting everyone in including themselves. They can't think that far ahead!
Just look at the mood in the world no one really listens to all the facts before they decide what is right. Just like Israel who offers the Palestinians almost everything but mass suicide and it isn't enough it is the Israelis who aren't serious about peace! If they offered to kill themselves it wouldn't be good enough because the Arabs deserve the chance to kill them right!
Christians and Jews are what's wrong with the world if it wasn't for us the world would be at peace!
This report is just the next step to the destruction of the only power stopping the war on Christianity and Jews. The US is going to fall just like every other empire from within. Destroyed by those who are to selfish to think about the good of the country that feeds them. SO they will destroy their own future to feed their EGO.
This report is just that the same people that Bolton talked about that are working against us that should be hung for treason.
But the American people are to busy with their own little worlds to care, and to corrupt and short sighted to see their time is already UP!!!!
So they won't call for the heads of these traitors. Those who see what is happening will yell until weariness makes them give in to the inevitable. Those who Hate Bush or conservatives, or Christians will say we told you so regardless of the lack of evidence to support their opinions. They don't need to know if they are right, they just want anything they can use to prove they are.
This is how you know when your doomed as a nation!
Aren't I the voice of optimism!
Posted by: Ken | December 7, 2007 11:15 PM
Israeli government announced 3 years ago that Iranian will have nuclear weapon in one year. Actually every year they repeat same thing. I think in US interest is to cut any relation with Israel the root of many problems that we have in ME is from supporting of Israel. I'm sure that all anti-American opinion in the ME is from our illegitimate support of the apartheid regime in the Israel. It's against our interest to continue this support. We must start work on base of US interest, for example we support all totalitarian regimes in ME and we call them moderate states, because they don't reflect the will of their people. We cannot change the ME with propaganda because they don't have Fox news; they see what is going on by their eyes. The only democratic country in the region is Iran. They have election in all level of society even in elementary school they have election for school mayor. Iran is the only country in the region that has quality be friend of American. Yes their problem is that they support all groups that fight for their rights and that is the position that US must be in but they do our job. Instead US support the most hated regime in the region (Israel).
Posted by: Jean | December 7, 2007 11:09 PM
Does anyone else feel like they've wandered into Dr. Strangelove?
Posted by: NWReader | December 7, 2007 10:09 PM
Israel is a country that has fought terrorism tooth and nail for the last 50 years, and yet there are more terrorists arrayed against her today than at anytime in her history and we thought that was the outcome we should pursue?
Are these guys retarded? You want to build a bridge, do you listen to the guys who brought a bridge in on time, in budget, or do you listen to the guy who is still pouring footers 50 years later?
I know, it's a no brainer, but then again so is this administration.
Posted by: Dijetlo | December 7, 2007 8:59 PM
Some are still in this hall of mirrors which is a shame. Arms-control experts who have really looked at this and all the data--ElBaradei, Ritter, all the US intelligence agencies--have concluded that the Iranians have no weapons programme today and are quite liable to the same reasoninbg as anyone else--offer security guarantees and they have no reason to think about it. There are 49 countries according to ElBaradei who are in the same situation. The only way forward is for the nuclear-armed states to stop menacing the non-nuclear armed states. Its as simple as that. Or else you can kiss nonproliferation goodbye. Wake up! Wake up!
Posted by: Chris | December 7, 2007 8:19 PM
If I were Iran, Id ramp up my nuke project big time. This is the best cover yet.
They were bad prior to 2003, but now they have seen the light and stopped ?, yeah right.
Posted by: alex | December 7, 2007 5:00 PM
I must say, this new NIE is very strange. Other than saying that the Iranians probably halted their nuclear weapons program after the Iraq invasion, it doesn't really offer anything new. It doesn't offer anything helpful as to Iran's motives for this alleged halt, nor does it explain why Iran still continues to enrich uranium and stall the IAEA. Given this lack of evidence, it would be foolish to make assumptions as to Iran's intentions. There is nothing in the NIE that refutes earlier evidence, collected by the IAEA, that Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons; only that Iran may have halted weapons development in 2003.
There is also no evidence that Iran hasn't restarted its weapons program, as the Israelis claim. What it does suggest is that Iran may be not only rational in its decision-making, but that it may also be susceptible to outside pressure. It may not be though, since we don't know why the Iranians halted their weapons program. They may have halted it due to technical hurdles or because the Iraq invasion made it too risky to conduct clandestine nuclear activity. The fact is we simply don't know, and that alone should give us pause.
All of this talk about Bush being rebuked is silly, no one has been rebuked and no on has been vindicated. The NIE tells us nothing other than that the Iranians may have halted weapons development in 2003. We know nothing about their motives, so saying that Iran is peaceful or that diplomacy worked is absurd. It is also absurd to conclude that the Iraq invasion influenced Iran, as there is no evidence of that either. In my opinion, the Iraq invasion was more likely to influence Iran than mild European diplomacy, but this is only my opinion. Iran has eschewed international norms for decades, making minor diplomatic efforts unlikely to affect their actions.
Yet, at the end of the day, we still don't know enough to warrant a policy change one way or another, making our continued policy of pressuring Iran while leaving the dipomatic door open our best option as we try to answer some of the many questions raised by this most recent NIE.
Posted by: Archimedes | December 7, 2007 4:15 PM
To the Honorable Governor Jennifer M. Granholm,
You say you want to cut the State Budget.
Here is how.
Stop paying salary and or wages to all politicians and government employees. They are technically Voluntary Public Servants and when our Country was founded they were not paid for their Voluntary Public Service.
You Volunteered yourself for the position as Governor of the State of Michigan.
It is not suposed to be a paying job but an Honor to Volterr to Serve your Public.
It was not until such time as some Corrupt Politicians and Corrupt Legislators Choose to Illegally take Control of our Country by Illegally Passing Laws Giving them Sole ability to Vote on the Passage of Laws which they were not given from the beginning.
They were to wright the laws and We the People were to Vote on Yea or Nae on putting those Laws into effect. The Corrupt Politicians have Stolen that RIGHT from the People.
If the People still had their Rights then Politicians and Government Employees would still be Voluntary Public Servants like they were intended to be when this Country was Founded.
Instead now we have Criminals with Money and Power destroying our Country while running it against the Peoples will as that they can not stop the Corruption without writing a new "Declaration of Independence" and fighting a war against Tyranny like when we fought the British.
And I fear it may come to that in the Future some day as that so many of the People are disatisfied with, yae upset with what our Countries Government has become.. Don't you think so also?
Our Country fought a war for Independence once already. If you act now and right the wrongs done by your predicessors you who stole the Peoples Rights to line their own pockets and bank accounts with their ilgotten gains you would be a true American Hero.
You Volunteered yourself for the position as Governor of the State of Michigan. Now Prove your Worthy.
Mr. B.V. Thulin
P.O. Box 6279
Jackson, Michigan 49204-6279
Posted by: Civil Servant | December 7, 2007 4:12 PM
To the Honorable Governor Jennifer M. Granholm,
You say you want to cut the State Budget.
Here is how.
Stop paying salary and or wages to all politicians and government employees. They are technically Voluntary Public Servants and when our Country was founded they were not paid for their Voluntary Public Service.
You Volunteered yourself for the position as Governor of the State of Michigan.
It is not suposed to be a paying job but an Honor to Volterr to Serve your Public.
It was not until such time as some Corrupt Politicians and Corrupt Legislators Choose to Illegally take Control of our Country by Illegally Passing Laws Giving them Sole ability to Vote on the Passage of Laws which they were not given from the beginning.
They were to wright the laws and We the People were to Vote on Yea or Nae on putting those Laws into effect. The Corrupt Politicians have Stolen that RIGHT from the People.
If the People still had their Rights then Politicians and Government Employees would still be Voluntary Public Servants like they were intended to be when this Country was Founded.
Instead now we have Criminals with Money and Power destroying our Country while running it against the Peoples will as that they can not stop the Corruption without writing a new "Declaration of Independence" and fighting a war against Tyranny like when we fought the British.
And I fear it may come to that in the Future some day as that so many of the People are disatisfied with, yae upset with what our Countries Government has become.. Don't you think so also?
Our Country fought a war for Independence once already. If you act now and right the wrongs done by your predicessors you who stole the Peoples Rights to line their own pockets and bank accounts with their ilgotten gains you would be a true American Hero.
You Volunteered yourself for the position as Governor of the State of Michigan. Now Prove your Worthy.
Mr. B.V. Thulin
P.O. Box 6279
Jackson, Michigan 49204-6279
Posted by: Civil Servant | December 7, 2007 4:11 PM
it's easy to see the israeli benefit ($6 billion a year or more) from the "special relationship." but what's in it for the u.s.? i think it is past time to reassess. israel, in my opinion, is old enough and strong enough to become just another ally whose responsibility it is to get along with the world and its neighbors.
Posted by: kathleen | December 7, 2007 4:03 PM
Like so many in the Unites States the point is being missed, partially because the earliest media reports focused on about two sentences of the NIE and ignored the rest that does warn specifically of Iranian nuclear weapons development. For example the statement in the NIE that "...convincing the Iranian leadership to forgo the development of nuclear weapons will be difficult..." is being completely ignored by the media as well as many other parts that contradict the idea that Iran has peaceful intentions.
When one considers that of all the known or suspected nuclear countries all but three of them developed their nuclear weapons under the cloak of a peaceful nuclear energy program. Once you accomplish nuclear power developing nuclear weapons is notoriously easy. Does anyone ever ask why Iran is building a heavy water plant at Arak that has no purpose in nuclear energy but pumps out weapons grade plutonium in abundance?
It's really no wonder that Israel, even the super-doves France and Germany are looking at us saying "uh...who do you guys think you are kidding?"
Posted by: Scott | December 7, 2007 3:17 PM
Sixteen agencies, finally finding some cohones, conclude Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program, and Israel has evidence to the contrary. While our intelligence agencies have less than world-class reputations, do they operate in vacuum? From my meager knowledge of intelligence (mainly La Carre novels) the best intelligence for the area are Israel, Russia, British and French. So our guys failed to discuss the findings with, or have any other countries contribute their take on the situation? Give us a break!
Posted by: Bushie | December 7, 2007 12:34 PM
Israel will not cease its continual efforts to jack the US into an ending war with Islam. Anyone can see now, if not before the release of the corrective NIE, that a massive bombardment of Iran for WMD they do not have, and for a weaponizing program that was discontinued four year past, would have been an even more massive calamity for US interests than the quagmire in Iraq, from which there is apparently no retreat. In that misbegotton mess, we continue to spend around 10 billion each month in a rush towards our financial, geopolitical, and moral ruin. How vastly much worse would it have been to expand this disaster in a war against Iran? Thank you Israel for our special relationship.
Posted by: Tarquinis | December 7, 2007 12:26 PM
There's such a thing as being cursed by earlier success. It can seduce and warp a country's decisionmaking, by making it beholden to the memory of its own triumphs. The country then tries helplessly to repeat them, over and over, to less and less effect.
(The first Gulf War, in various ways, must be at least partly responsible for our own complex, drawn-out miscarriage of the second.)
But it would be interesting to try to understand how this 'freezing' of national learning has worked in Israel specifically. Perhaps if a certain military story is a nation's *founding* myth--instead of only one among several stories it can tell--it will have an especially hard time getting over it.
Posted by: Huck | December 7, 2007 11:39 AM
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NO, Now THE ARAB NEIGHBORS must accept the fact that it must come to terms with her neighbor ISRAEL in the region