"But after Bush, after Iraq, or under other circumstances, Iran could "decide" to restart its nuclear weapons program. In keeping its options open,......" This kind of obsession will lead us to only one solution. NUKE THEM. If not, then let us engage the Iranians in a meaningfull dialogue (meaningfull for Iran also, not only USA), allay their fears or phobias, and help develop a healthy civil society. Iranians are not as stupid as the Arabs, and once they are not faced with external threats, they will take of things at home, without interference from other countries. Rest assured.

Oh...well, I didn't really expect a response. Happy nuttery.

US will never declare war on a nuclear armed country. Guess what! One more hurdle removed. Let the war drums beat on...

US Intelligence should come up as an oxymoron in the dictionary!

So yeah, go ahead and put your money on Ahmadinijad (sp.) when he claims Iran doesn't have a WMD program. But then also accept his racist rhetoric against the West and Israel in particular.

I'd like to hear from the IAEA and Europeans as well what they think about this latest report from the NIE. Coz we should all know by now that "US intelligence" can be manipulated to fit the end goals of the politicians regardless of if they have a (R) or (D) next to their name...

Upon hearing of this report I began to think-what if Iran stopped the development of the bomb because it knew how bellicose Bush was?.In other words they let Bush put his foot in it. Dont get me wrong I am glad that the possibility of war with Iran has diminished.Yet Iran's foreign policy objectives are still a destabilizing element in the Midle East.I also would not turn my back on the Saudis either.Now is the time for diplomacy the way it used to be practiced.I do not see this happening because this administration is spent among other reasons which are obvious. I would like to see some meetings behind closed doors between the US and Iran.They need to be low keyed becuse we cannot talk to the president of Iran. .These talks would not be easy -in fact there is a chance that nothing much would come out of them.After all Iran is as addicted to sponsoring terrorism as we are to oil.I wonder if Iran began to back off supporting these groups that they would turn on Iran.We have had no real contact wih Iran since 1979. It is easy to bomb a country but much harder to sit down and work out disagreements.The more we isolate Iran the more chances there are for the Middle East to blow up.Whether we like it or not the word on the street is that the US is waging war against Islam.I think that we need to start rethinking our approach so there could be more positive results.President Bush has spent the fiscal future of our country in Iraq and Bin Laden is still alive.They cannot rebuild Iraq and America is rough around the edges There are problems that need to be dealt with. Where will the money come from?.Who allowed Bush to graduate from college let alone obtain an MBA?

Whoever says communism is great never lived in a communist country.

I don't really get the tone of this posting. Here are some thoughts in response:

(1) On why the intelligence community that has been vilified for producing the pre-Iraq-war N.I.E. could be greeted with trust for producing this one: Absolutely everything that I read in the press 2002-03 suggested, I think accurately, that the CIA and most of the rest of the intelligence community was unsuccessfully, and weakly, resisting the politicization and reversal of its findings by the White House. Hence Cheney's asking the same questions over, and over, and over, until he got concessions that would allow him to make whatever case he wanted to make; hence the entire separate 'intelligence' apparatus Cheney and Rumsfeld cooked up, à la Team B, to support the case for war with Iraq. And so on, famously, ad nauseum: the Office of Special Plans; the pet theories about Mohammed Atta in Prague.

So--one can now greet the new N.I.E. with relief since, because it is so decidedly *not* to the political advantage of McConnell, or Hayden, or any other of Bush's appointees, to puncture his fantasies (if this were news Bush wanted them to release, after all, he would not have pretended not to have even 'gotten the memo' until last week, or talked up the nuclear threat so wildly since the summer), the only plausible reason they could have to produce such an N.I.E. is that they think it is true.

Which means, in turn, that the humiliatingly terrible results of 'going along and getting along' with the White House, despite what you yourself noted right before the start of the war in Iraq was a complete lack of hard evidence of WMD's actually existing there, have made a difference. The intelligence community has learned something, and for at least a while, intelligence will not be just a continuation of politics by other means: it will be about trying to learn new information about our adversaries, and to interpret it as accurately as humanly possible. That's good news.

(2) As for your 'criticism' that unnamed intelligence-community sources have dared to speculate about the Iranian 'official mind,' I have a hard time understanding it. That's an enormous part of the job of analyzing this particular intelligence problem, after all--in fact probably the biggest part. Don't we as a country self-evidently want very, very much to know what Iran wants to do and is trying to do, and don't we need to know it from a source that is located somewhere outside the president's gut?

So I guess we should resist peace at all cost.

I think I might use these for wallpaper.

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/12/04/arts/04nypl_CA1ready.html

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/12/04/arts/04nyplready.html

Andrew,.. there have been an article in WSJ dec 1st, revealing Giuliani's profitable partnership with with the diamond-trading Steinmetz family of Israel, Sage is the family's finacial firm in NY, and shows how money came his way after he earned international acclaim leading the city through the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.. In addition to large speaking fees that went directly to Mr. Giuliani, the Sage relationship helped his firm expand into a foreign market where he and his team of ex-New York City criminal justice, municipal and fire department officials lacked experience.

He is on the payroll of Israelis, this Steinmetz family has mined gems in Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of Congo and has been under criticism for that.

No doubt why Giuliani is so strict on and one hand sided on middle east issues...
no true american should vote to candidates of this ilk,

You and other so called journalists-bloggers has been calling for emminent danger on behalf of Iran, but the truth is that it is not to the interest of US to stop their civilian nuclear work, even if Israel is angered,.....thus stop under valuating this report and face the fact......even if they get the enrichment technology US is not goign to stopit....though with rabble rousers in our media nationwide, it is easy to stir the public opinion on this ,...just check foxnews to see how they have put this news, as if Iran has got the nuc bomb now ...how shameless they are...arkin don't waste your time ...us won't enter the war this time

bahahahahahahaha...or should that be...baaaaaaaa.

let's see:

intelligence estimates one disgrees with? liars! corrupted! neocon tricksters.

intelligence reports that fit one's predisposition? yup! told ya so! will ya look at that!

what a bunch of transparent clowns you all are.

ummm...since you all laid the groundwork....how do you know this is a truthful "estimate"?

Make no mistake about it- the pro-Israel crowd will not let up until the United States is at war with Iran. Within minutes of the NIE report about Iran's alleged nuclear weapons' program, the Israeli were attempting to discredit it. But it is not only the NIE report that throws cold water on the claim that Iran has a weapons' program- note that in 2006 the CIA reported that it could find "no credible" evidence that Iran even had such a program, similarly in 2005 the head of Russian intelligence was saying the same and more recently the head of IAEA said his team has not found any evidence to support the claim that Iran 'ever" had a nuclear weapons' program. So who is still hawking war? The Wall Street Journal, the lunes out of the Vice President's office, AIPAC and its appeasers, etc. Isn't it time that the American people wake up and realize that our policies in the Middle East have been driven by a blindly pro-Israeli agenda that puts the interests of a foreign power ahead of United States. Ask your self what is the real reason that tens of thousands of Americans have been killed or wounded in Iraq and why hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have had to die. Whose interests did Wolfowitz, Feith, Libby, etc. really represent? Until we answer these difficult questions, our nation remains in great and continuing peril of endless war and conflict in the Middle East. And readers ask your self, which presidential candidate is more willing to stand up to Israel and AIPAC and say "no more Americans will die to advance Israeli regional interests". It isn't Clinton, Guilliani or Romneny- all of whom backs still ache from their most recent bowing and scraping at the last AIPAC conference. One wonders when we will have an American President who will truly stand up for American interests. Am I asking for too much?

What makes this NIE correct and other incorrect?

Politics!!

Iran was scared that with our troops in the region, we might find out about any active nuclear program because of our electronic and physical proximity. They know if they get caught making nukes, the world will turn sand to glass in Iran. They won't get a second chance.

Plus, why do you think they want us out of region? Why do you think they helped Shia Militias? They thought that our resolve would be broken by losing political will. Why do you think they want Democrats in Power? They want us to talk instead of act. While we have rounds of talks, they will quietly build a nuclear weapon. They crave talks because it delays action.

"Welcome to the UN. It's your world." This is how the United Nations' website welcomes the visitors. But for Iranians, it is not their world. It is a world that has been discriminating against them for years. It is a world that has depicted Iran as the devil and has denied its rights.

The world has been convinced that Iran is a threat for its neighbours. This is while for the last 250 years Iran has not attacked any country but has been attacked in many occasions. Most recently, Iran was a victim of chemical weapons supplied by the western powers. More than 100,000 Iranians were killed in those chemical attacks. Not only the world and the United Nations did not come into rescue, an Iranian complaint to the United Nations Security Council was vetoed by the United States . Where was the conscience of the world at that time?

Iranians have been depicted as terrorists. It is a very confusing world for an Iranian. There has been no Iranian involved in any terrorist attacks in the past. Iran does support Hizbollah, but Hizbollah only and only fights inside the borders of his country against foreign military personnel and never against civilians. For an Iranian, it is mind baffling to call that terrorism. In contrast, the United States has shot an Iranian passenger plane over the Persian Gulf , has supplied chemical weapons to Saddam Hussein to be used against Iranians, and has bombed and tortured civilians across the world over the past years. For Iranians, it is a mystery why the United Nations does not consider the US a terror state.

It is advertised that Iran does not agree to suspend uranium enrichment under any condition. Iran did agree to suspend uranium enrichment. The Iranian conditions included disarming the entire Middle East region from nuclear and chemical weapons and giving Iran security guarantee against foreign invasion and foreign attempts for regime change. The US did not agree these conditions. What did Iranians think when these two conditions were denied? How did Iranians feel when, knowing that these two conditions have been denied, the United Nations went on to pose sanctions against them? The United Nations denied Iran a security guarantee against invasion, bombs, killing and torture of another country. The United Nations denied Iran sovereignty. Is Iranian blood any different from that of the other nations?

Iranians are not building an arsenal to threaten their neighbours or any other country. For the last 250 years, Iran has not attacked any country. While the majority of Iranians, including the writers, denounce and condemn president Ahmadinejad's comments on Israel and the holocaust, his remarks did not contain a military threat to Israel . He called for the day that "the Zionist regime" (intentionally mistranslated to " Israel " by the western media) is wiped off the map. He continued to explain that by "the Zionist regime" he means a regime that discriminates against non-Jews and is, therefore, racist. He concluded his remarks with wishing for the day that Jews and non-Jews live in peace and harmony in that region. This is not a military threat, and most definitely not a threat against Jews. In the past, Iran has denounced the apartheid regime of South Africa . However, Iran has become one of South Africa 's closest allies as soon as the racist practices have been abandoned there. What makes other nations believe the same will not happen this time?

Iranians feel that the United Nations is paving the way for the US to destroy another nation, to kill and to torture Iranians. This is not the first time the US has committed such crime. At this critical time, there is nothing left for Iranians but to hope that some day the conscious of the world will awaken and regret these actions.

"...there's a danger that the NIE conclusions will be as distorted and "used" as much as any Iraq WMD report"

Ridiculous. Arkin pretends that everyone else is as mendacious as the Bush administration and its supporters. The Bush administration had the power to distort the intelligence before invading Iraq and the media went along with the swindle.

..."an intelligence institution that not too long ago was considered a laughingstock or a fabricator of evil has now been anointed as the oracle."

Actual intelligence from the US agencies, as opposed the Bush distortions, did not support the existence of WMD in Iraq. We don't have to rely on US intelligence anyway - the IAEA was right in 2003 and it was right again in 2007.

Shouldn't a writer on National and Homeland Security know something about which agencies and officials should be trusted? Or is this irrelevant to Arkin's purpose?

I know no one--probably including Arkin--reads the comments to Arkin's blog any more due to the psychiatric needs of the commenters, but does anyone know if Arkin ever commented on the 2002 war games that showed that the Iranians would destroy most of the U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf in a war?

http://americasherojourney.com/Article-New-Pearl-Harbour.htm

http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2007/11/08/01932.html

I know no one--probably including Arkin--reads the comments to Arkin's blog any more due to the psychiatric needs of the commenters, but does anyone know if Arkin ever commented on the 2002 war games that showed that the Iranians would destroy most of the U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf in a war?

http://americasherojourney.com/Article-New-Pearl-Harbour.htm

http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2007/11/08/01932.html

Yet the 2005 NIE said something about high confidence Iran had a clandestine nuc weap program. What changed since then about our estimate of a program that discontinued in 2003?

Under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran is entitled to a peaceful nuclear program. We now have our intelligence community telling us that they are doing just that. Both Iran and the US (as well as most other nations) are full signatories to this important piece of international law.

Under what authority is our adminstration attempting to impose sanctions or worse on that country?

Why would other countries go along with our scheme to sanction a nation, which our own spies are telling us is following its international nuclear obligations, while our allies (Israel, Pakistan), don't even bother with the NPT and in case of Pakistan even used to sell nuclear equipment to the highest bidder?

GW inc. is in the headline again as major production issues with its "i" products: "i-Raq", "i-Ran", and now, "i-ntelligence", continue to surface.

Company first admitted two years ago, the "i-ntelligence" software on its "i-Raq" product has a major design flaw. Since then company has spent billions to correct bugs without much success.

Since i-Raq product hit the market, it has caused American about 1 trillion dollars in lost of productivity. Defying mounting pressure to recall its "i-Raq" product, GW inc. insisted all bugs were fixed.

According to VP of GW inc., Mr. Chaney, who spearheads the i-Raq development, but has no "i-ntelligent" background, "A small bug like this is to be expected; due to tremendous shortage on "i-ntelligent" people inside the company. But we are now working closely with Apple's CEO Steve Job, who seemed to have great success with its "i" products."

Hey Bob,
The next time you wish for someone to get nuked, make it your home town.

Iran has been evil since 1979. It's about time we turned them into a glassy smoking crater.

A little group of nuts just wants to bomb Iran no matter what the facts are. This group of nuts is in control of the White House.

They want to bomb Iran because it's Tuesday, because the weather has turned cold, or just because it's a nice day for bombing.

They are not influenced by anything going on around them or anything anyone says. They have a mania.

However : the betting line on this current event ( US/Israel to bomb Iran by some fixed date ) never went up, no matter what the nuts said. The betting line has been more informative than all the bluster....

Hey noobs,

This report feeds right into the Bush plan for starting a pre-emptive war with Iran. If the US is to exit Iraq it cannot do so with a strong Iran in the hood. It has to decimate some of that capability. Preparations are underway to conduct conventional strikes into Iran and reports like these will assuage the fear amongst the sheeple that their government is not going to inadvertently trigger a nuclear holocaust.

Joe Schmoe, sighing off... (not a typo)

For a nice in-depth analysis on the Iran weapons program read here:

http://www.juancole.com/

Scroll down to "Did an Iranian Spy Clear Tehran of Nuclear Ambitions?"

At least this the new NIE lessens (?) the chance that WE will start the war. If a war is to start, let someone else start it for a change.

You don't really think this is the only lie from this administration, do you? Every time this administration gets caught lying, they change their story. Lies, lies, and more lies.
How many lies are they going to be caught at before you realize, it's ALL lies. Everything you've told since 911 has been lies. For that matter, who was behind 911?
Or do you believe what they told you about that too.

Is this also a "Slam Dunk"? LOL @ US Intelligence...

Listening to the moron Bush repeat his talking points over and over and over at the press conference is unbelievable..How to sell the Big Lie. F'rintance will he ever be able to say nuculer correctly????

"It means the Iran-war scare is over for now, and the World War III camp has been sharply rebuked."

Wishful thinking. The hawks had already changed their tactics for demonizing Iran by declaring the Revolutionary Guard a "terrorist organization," again with questionable evidence, and the US media just lapped it up.

Interview with former weapons inspector Scott Ritter, who has nearly disappeared from view in the US media after his claim that Iraq had no WMD was shown to be true:

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=33454§ionid=3510302

"So it seems, according to the new National Intelligence Estimate, that Iran decided, for its own strategic reasons, to halt its nuclear weapons program in 2003."

don't be coy... The finding says that U.S. Intel NEVER EVEN KNEW if Iran had a nuclear program!

From another blog... a comment quote for you to think about Arkin...

"If the 2005 NIE report was wrong when it claimed with "high confidence" that Iran had a active nuclear weapons program, why should the 2007 NIE be any more credible when it claims that Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003? If Iran really had a nuclear weapons program until 2003 as the new report claims, then why has the IAEA found no evidence of it? Why should we believe that Iran EVER had a nuclear weapons program at all?"

http://icga.blogspot.com/2007/12/national-intelligence-estimate-about.html

Stop shilling for your friends in the military industrial-complex wouldja..
Even though, much like J Miller, they are responsible for a large portion of your paycheck (every time General Dynamics, GE etc buys ad space)

Communism is great!