Goodbye Spy Satellite: Anyone Know the Price Tag?
The dying spy satellite saga has attracted a carnival cast of characters -- hand-wringing arms controllers and "space war" opponents, angry Russians and Chinese, almost gleeful first responders and homeland security guardians, protesting environmentalists, cable news nitwits. All of them have something to say about the dangers of the situation and the Pentagon's ulterior motives. And all of them are wrong.
Nothing is going on here. Of course the military wants to shoot down the satellite. I'm sure it all started when some geeky major at some grave briefing innocently said, "Why don't we just shoot it down?" For the Boy Scouts of the space world, that is the equivalent of the Army vanquishing Saddam's military in 21 days. And in case you've forgotten, the United States is spending almost $10 billion annually (as it has been doing since 1983) to "build" a missile defense system; no surprise, we don't have one yet. So focus on the arms control and political effects if you want, but the real story here is money: lots of it, wasted, spent, and no one seems to care.
Yesterday a Navy Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) launched from the cruiser USS Lake Erie hit a failing U.S. spy satellite over the Pacific Ocean. The Pentagon says that the objective of the inert missile -- that is, it had no explosive warhead and was just intended to destroy the satellite through "kinetic" force of the impact -- was to rupture the satellite's fuel tank, which contained about 1,000 pounds of hydrazine, a hazardous fuel. If the mission was successful, the fuel tank will have been ruptured and the fuel will burn up in the earth's atmosphere. Pieces of the satellite that don't burn up in reentry could still fall to earth.
I'm sure that the first reaction in the Pentagon, even among those who have no interest in missile defense or anti-satellite weapons, was to heave a sigh of relief that the three-stage missile hit the satellite on the first try. Yesterday nervous jokes were being made in the building about the fate of the satellite and what would happen if the Navy missed. People were even joking that the Air Force would somehow be blamed.
The Pentagon claims that the 5,000-pound, bus-sized satellite (designated USA-193) was a danger, not just because of the hydrazine fuel, but also because large pieces were likely to survive reentry and pose a hazard. Now, broken up into smaller pieces, the space geeks believe that the likelihood of burn-up is greater. (Various scientists have done the calculations of the odds of debris or toxic fuel actually hurting anyone on earth; it is more likely that you are going to get struck by lightning, from what I can tell.)
Conspirators and protesters from all sides argue that the satellite didn't pose that great of a danger and that last night's strike was a sneaky opportunity for the United States to prove its ability to shoot down a satellite a year after China demonstrated the very same capability, destroying one of its aging weather satellites. Missile defense opponents see the shoot-down as a clandestine test of the network of sensors, radars and weapons that could all be brought to bear against a hostile missile attack. The Russians are protesting -- but then, that's what the Russian do these days.
Lost in the shuffle of this "Right Stuff" mission to save the earth is the multi-gazillion-dollar satellite program itself -- and I say multi-gazillion because it is the policy of the U.S. government and particularly the National Reconnaissance Office not to divulge how many of our tax dollars it spends on satellite reconnaissance, and specifically on this generation of satellites, part of what is called the Future Imagery Architecture (FIA). Billions have already been wasted on this program, now capped off by the failure of USA-193, which itself undoubtedly cost many hundreds of millions of dollars, and ceased operating shortly after it was launched in December 2006, never providing us with anything other than this week's entertainment.
Remember all the front-page stories about waste of money, how the contractors Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing were punished, about what went wrong, about the value and prospects of the overall program? Remember all those congressional hearings? Hey, what's a few billion when we're talking national security?
By William M. Arkin |
February 21, 2008; 9:00 AM ET
Exotic Weaponry
, Future War
, Intelligence
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Posted by: skfrjwca ntfa | April 16, 2008 11:32 AM
Hi William
The story of USA 193 is going on RIGHT NOW. Please take a look at the minimum distance information on this web site. Shooting down USA 193 in the position it was sitting endangered ALL of the LEO satellite community.
THAT is the story.
Dr. Boggi
Posted by: Joe | March 17, 2008 1:27 PM
there IS no "price tag" for the satellite.
it was a package deal with the dud prez.
don't let him re-enter public life!(jail.)
both full of toxic gas and radioshack parts.
Posted by: bloggod | February 26, 2008 12:17 AM
there IS no "price tag" for the satellite.
it was a package deal with the dud prez.
don't let him re-enter public life!(jail.)
both full of toxic gas and radioshack parts.
Posted by: bloggod | February 26, 2008 12:17 AM
'This is all about ensuring that the USA can dominate and threaten the rest of the world.'
YGBSM...Robert. We've been able to do this since 1945. You can't mean you're just catching on...can you?
Posted by: Panhandle Willy | February 24, 2008 2:21 AM
Anybody...I mean anybody...who thinks that because Arkin writes for the WaPo he has some lock on the pulse of national defense...let me just disabuse you of this silly notion. Arkin's picture proof that some village somewhere is missing an idiot. He doesn't know the square root of freak all about DoD. He has an axe to grind...I can't figure the angle...probably a deserved pass over that he's still in denial about.
Posted by: Panhandle Willy | February 24, 2008 2:09 AM
'Prior to the 1985 F-15 launched ASAT demonstration; the US fielded developed and deployed earlier capabilities.'
Do you think...maybe...23 years just may have yielded a better technological solution?
Posted by: Panhandle Willy | February 24, 2008 1:56 AM
'It is supposed to demonstrate that George's version or Star Wars is working.'
George's version? You dope...go have your second beer.
Posted by: | February 24, 2008 1:41 AM
Plainfacto: Hit the wrong key and posted instead of previewing. Had intended to close with the appropriate teletype op close:
TNKS n CUL
(forgot what the line feed characters were)
Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | February 23, 2008 7:52 PM
Plainfacto: Well, actually, having served on a Frigate who's main gun only got more than one round down the barrel about three times in three years, I am glad that the Lake Erie got off an effective shot. In the general press of things we sometimes fail to acknowledge achievement when we should. The Technorati, mechanics, Physicists and Mathematicians did competent work. Had the administration been forthright and done an equally competent job of saying that, like sinking ships at sea to practice gunnery, they were going do obliterate a sensitive satellite they couldn't control to keep sensitive material from potentialy falling into foreign hands, and left it at that, they would have been roundly booed by the round booers and it would be over.
Actually, I suspect that from a strictly technical and engineering standpoint we did get some return for our $60 million. It is the multiple black eyes we got in the process from smacking ourselves in the face to try to hide the basic facts that are an unacceptable cost.
Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | February 23, 2008 7:47 PM
//So now we know. A dumb stunt, to keep the yokels happy. The fact that it was another erect social finger to the rest of the world is not George's particular concern.\\ -cefty
Aw come on already! Aren't you taking this story too far and giving Arkin too much credit for a story that is nearly meaningless in itself? All that happened is the USN got some press for their ability to knock down an errant satellite - for cryin out loud! Are you working on your spin doctoral thesis? You shouldn't waste your effort on this story.
73..
Posted by: Plainfacto | February 23, 2008 6:30 PM
guess what ensued after lake erie's
sattlite shoot-down? AN electrical storm
in phoenix that shook the daylights
out of everyone.
Posted by: eschmo@cox.net | February 23, 2008 9:54 AM
Prior to the 1985 F-15 launched ASAT demonstration; the US fielded developed and deployed earlier capabilities.
Project SAINT, initiated in 1958, was developed as an orbital interceptor. SECDEF McNamara cancelled the program in 1962 prior to operational test and evaluation (OT&E), due to inability to operate in a nuclear environment (OPINE).
Program 437, a nuclear tipped THOR interceptor was deployed in the Pacific AOR from 1964 to 1975.
Posted by: Hawk58 | February 23, 2008 4:30 AM
The dust has settled and the boasting has begun and the actual justification for this stunt begins to take consequential form.
It is supposed to demonstrate that George's version or Star Wars is working.
"Demonstrated new capabilities" Yeah, the last time all it took was an F15 and a jerry rigged air to air missile. That satellite was also in a higher orbit.
While they are suggesting that this IS and advance on our ABM capabilities, it isn't.
The satellite that we destroyed was as big as a bus, (their description) and in a stable, well analyzed orbit. We hit it from a ship on a realitively flat sea. In space shot terms it was about the level of difficulty of hitting the target Mythbusters had with the test jig they used to try to deflect a bullet with a magnet.
Had they missed, THAT would have been news worthy.
But when your tests have failed so often you don't talk about them anymore, ya gotta do somthin to make it look like you are working.
So now we know. A dumb stunt, to keep the yokels happy. The fact that it was another erect social finger to the rest of the world is not George's particular concern.
And we wonder why they don't like us. (George doesn't wonder, of course, He knows.)
Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | February 22, 2008 9:39 PM
The dust has settled and the boasting has begun and the actual justification for this stunt begins to take consequential form.
It is supposed to demonstrate that George's version or Star Wars is working.
"Demonstrated new capabilities" Yeah, the last time all it took was an F15 and a jerry rigged air to air missile. That satellite was also in a higher orbit.
While they are suggesting that this IS and advance on our ABM capabilities, it isn't.
The satellite that we destroyed was as big as a bus, (their description) and in a stable, well analyzed orbit. We hit it from a ship on a realitively flat sea. In space shot terms it was about the level of difficulty of hitting the target Mythbusters had with the test jig they used to try to deflect a bullet with a magnet.
Had they missed, THAT would have been news worthy.
But when your tests have failed so often you don't talk about them anymore, ya gotta do somthin to make it look like you are working.
So now we know. A dumb stunt, to keep the yokels happy. The fact that it was another erect social finger to the rest of the world is not George's particular concern.
And we wonder why they don't like us. (George doesn't wonder, of course, He knows.)
Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | February 22, 2008 9:35 PM
This article was written by someone purporting to be an expert on national security? It's drivel. As for "billions wasted" I wonder how he arrives at a definition of "wasted"? Is this benchmarked, for example, against corporte R&D budgets and results, or perhaps he has access to a more technical definition he would care to share? It seems like a complex subject, so I look forward to some actual facts rather than blather.
Posted by: James Murphy | February 22, 2008 10:17 AM
I wanted to answer the question you posed as to the cost of the satellite. Your correct Mr. Arkin, those satellites do cost too much. Think about how many people could have been made millionaires with just the cost of this one satellite! Forget space, I think the world would be better off to ban flight above let's say 50,000 feet, and no more looking for other worlds until we get our focus back here on good ole terra firma! Do the math Mr. Arkin, how many millionaires could we have made with the money we have spent on the satellite program and forget the 10,000,000,000 x 25 years for the missle defense system that we are useing to shoot our own worthless satellites down without even asking for a refund from the manufaturer first. Yes, I say 50,000 ft. max altitude for any type of man made flying contraption and not a foot higher and we want a refund! Cost Mr. Arkin . . . Priceless!!!!
Posted by: Duke | February 22, 2008 6:07 AM
This article is a red herring.
Do your own research people.
Posted by: knower | February 22, 2008 2:51 AM
We are not talking about national security. This is all about ensuring that the USA can dominate and threaten the rest of the world.
In the end the US will put many missiles into orbit and they will silently intimidate other nations.
Bush has decried the danger of Iran having a few nukes because they are so-called 'dangerous extremists' We know this is the case because the GOP and others have said so and, according to them, they are never wrong.
Now that Russia is not able to counterbalance US military might the US has acted irrationally. I believe that it is inevitable that a President will come along who will use America's military capacity to turn the world into chaos. All we have to do is wait long enough before some insane red-neck insists that he had no choice but to use the nukes.
Posted by: Robert James | February 21, 2008 11:08 PM
Mr. Arkin,
You wrote: "And in case you've forgotten, the United States is spending almost $10 billion annually (as it has been doing since 1983) to "build" a missile defense system; no surprise, we don't have one yet."
President Bush directed the Missile Defense Agency to develop and deploy a capabilities based Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) to protect the entire United States from limited attack.
Initial Defensive Operations (IDO) were achieved in 2004, fulfilling the presidential promise to the American people.
Posted by: Hawk58 | February 21, 2008 10:41 PM
Even if this was only a military excersise, in the long run...it still affects safety.
Posted by: Brainiac | February 21, 2008 10:36 PM
Arkin,
I think you're right to bring the FIA program to the table for discussion and comment.
But to do it in the context of this satellite shootdown is coming at FIA a bit sideways.
How bout taking FIA head on?
Well. Maybe not.
That would require you to do research; and FIA would require some real tough digging to get to the facts.
No. Better if you stuck to innuendo and supposition. Those are skills you've honed pretty well these past few years.
Posted by: Frank | February 21, 2008 9:57 PM
This particular imbroglio is the result of being lied to, sometimes just for the fun of it, and some times just for practice, by the Bush administration. while it is possible to cook up a plausible scenario for doing what they claim they did, The scenario they cooked up is so plausibly implausible that, based on the whole BC record, everyone gets their nickers in a knot to find more reasons to doubt than to believe.
The official version doesn't help. Hydrazine, Dangerous? Well, satellites fall all the time with left over hydrazine in their tanks. Nobody seems to care. Hydrazine is, essentially, double ammonia. You can play really fun games with it, like mixing it with methyl alcohol and blowing it past a platinum or iridium screen. The hydrazine decomposes, releasing free nitrogen, free oxygen, and lots of heat, and burns up the methanol in the process. That was the fuel for the ME 163, and the V2. Just get Hydrazine hot (like in reentry) and it decomposes the same way.
Making lots of little pieces of one big boat anchor makes sense, fewer pieces will survive re entry, but some of the pieces will go up instead of down and who knows what they will hit.
ETC. ETC.
When you have a credibility gap to dwarf Valles Marinaris, coughing up a hair ball of a story like this is bound to cause people who don't trust you anyway to distrust you some more. Telling even the straight truth doesn't help much, and just to much of this doesn't quite pass the sniff test.
About the only thing that might help is nice, high res pictures, and a detailed, no "Its too classified" account of the process will give us doubters some basic physics to chew on and try to digest. It won't help on SDI, it won't help on George's Diplomatic account, it MIGHT help the Democrat who replaces him to negotiate on "Law of Low Earth Orbit" matters.
Mostly, though, it is a cautionary tale about the boy who cried wolf, and wmd, and terrorists, and...
If they used George's voice for time and temperature, I would have to start wearing a watch.
Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | February 21, 2008 9:47 PM
Dear Mike:
I enjoyed what you wrote. But I am afraid that you have been watching entirely too much James Bond. The extra weight that would be made up of explosives would be too much added weight. Only necessary material makes it into orbit. Also, if such a feature would be installed - an 'unfriendly' country might use this feature and figure a way out to have our own satellites destroyed - saving themselves the trouble to shoot it down themselves.
Hey Bill Arkin:
The only reason that I didn't address your copy, is that I felt it had no merit. Certainly, it is not the best piece that you have put out. Maybe you should pick a different topic that might inspire a boistrous and lively debate.
Thank You
PF...
Posted by: Plainfacto | February 21, 2008 9:05 PM
Space technology is experimental. I assume that for range safety, missiles can be destroyed remotely during the boost phase. Space technology is based on multiple redundancy. A top secret payload would certainly have a built in way to destroy it in case everything went wrong, the payload did not achieve orbit upon launch, etc. If I were a steely eyed missile man spending large money, I would want to have a special button that would destroy an out of control payload post boost. Maybe why they shot it down is the fact that the specially button didn't work along with whatever else went wrong. On the other hand, if the special button remained an option, I am assured that my anti satellite missile would either hit the target, or I could push the button and nobody would know the difference. Or a more simple explanation is since the president doesn't have much time left, he wants to shoot some cool weapons and push some important buttons while he can. Yes He Can.
Posted by: Mike Davidson | February 21, 2008 8:55 PM
'Lost in the shuffle of this "Right Stuff" mission to save the earth is the multi-gazillion-dollar satellite program itself '
No what's lost in the shuffle is why the WaPo continues to pay you hundreds of dollars a month when a sixth grader could do as well for just a few video-games. You're an idiot.
Posted by: Panhandle Willy | February 21, 2008 8:36 PM
u suck arkin, i stillr emember your 911 truth hitpiece
Posted by: jim | February 21, 2008 7:54 PM
The Non-Proliferation of War in and from Space?
As I understand it, only 3 nations refused to sign the ban on the Non Proliferation of Weapons in Space Treaty aka OST. Of course the satrap United States and America's 51st state satrap nation, Israel, refused to sign on.
These two nations want to keep fighting into perpetuity! And they have the land and the oceans covered.
The U.S.A. definitely plans to fight future wars from space platforms, and from Satellites, we all know that. We are certainly working to get their first. From the world's number one producer of military weapons, it is not a surprise?
The real question is, how come the United States needed to be certain that this particular satellite was destroyed? The English carried weapons in the bowels of passenger ships like the Lusitania, God only knows what surreptitiously that satellite contained - in spite of what we have been told!
Posted by: The Rev | February 21, 2008 2:17 PM
But! But!
...No one goes outside anymore Sam.
"Mama used to roll her hair
Back before the central air
We'd sit outside and watch the stars at night
She's tell me to make a wish
I'd wish we both could fly
I don't think she's seen the sky
Since we got the satellite dish"
--James McMurtry, Levelland
http://www.songmeanings.net/lyric.php?lid=129762
Posted by: Da' Buffalo | February 21, 2008 2:15 PM
People there was a lunar eclipse last night.
Posted by: SamEllison | February 21, 2008 2:06 PM
But! But!
We're First In Fright!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPhUr-T6UM
Earthlings! M/A/R/R/S needs women!
Posted by: Da' Buffalo | February 21, 2008 1:33 PM
But! But!
Whitey's on the Moon!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5smPcN8AoE
Brother Gil, Minister of information.
Posted by: Da' Buffalo | February 21, 2008 1:04 PM
My last comment should read we have no need for the preemptive use of nuclear weapons.
Posted by: P. J. Casey | February 21, 2008 12:18 PM
I have no idea why or if they needed to destroy this one satellite. It has nothing to do with a missile defense situation, where you would be dealing with swarms of missiles coming at you. You would need a large number of missiles to overcome any Missile Defense or Air Defense System. Even if you stopped 90% of the missiles, ten% or one could, depending on the warhead, destroy a small country. Having a deterrent second Strike capacity should give any attacker second thoughts about a preemptive strike. This is why nuclear submarines work, because they have mobility and firepower. They are our deterrent, and we have need for the the preemptive use of nuclear weapon or unreliable missile defense systems. Deterrents give us certainty.
Posted by: P. J. Casey | February 21, 2008 12:15 PM
Again -- this bird was NOT the size of a bus. 5000 pounds is the size of a car. The KH-11 are the size of a bus (Hubble facing earth).
Posted by: charlie | February 21, 2008 12:09 PM
Arkin, look at the bright side. Your bearded egg head got paid for writing this bologne.
The moon did look very cool last night.
Posted by: stink breath | February 21, 2008 11:36 AM
Let's talk about the gazillions wasted on social welfare programs sometime. At least these gazillions keep people employed and push technology development.
Posted by: Todd | February 21, 2008 11:16 AM
Let's talk about the pay off, it's you being able to write these stupid columns because we are still in a free country. Lets let the smart people keep protecting us and doing thier thing, and those who were not very bright and had to take writing and journalism in college keep writing.
Acro, yea, another Bush lie. They were really shoting down a UFO. Idiot.
Posted by: Anti Acro | February 21, 2008 10:27 AM
You forget that we have had the ability to shoot down satallites for a long time. ASM-135 ASAT is an air-launched anti-satellite multi stage missile that was successfully tested in 1985 by destroying a low orbit satalite. Russians have done it too. You insunuate we did it because the Chinese did it last year. Not true, Chinese are 20 years behind.
Posted by: tom | February 21, 2008 10:24 AM
This operation was another Bush lie. Public safety was a cover story, of course. This was a military exercise only.
Posted by: Acro | February 21, 2008 10:12 AM
THAT IS SO COOL WHAT HAPPEN LAST NIGHT WITH THE MOON IT WAS SO REDISH I LOVED IT SO MUCH
Posted by: TANIA JEAN LOUIS | February 21, 2008 10:02 AM
But! But!
Whitey's on the Moon!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5smPcN8AoE
Brother Gil, Minister of information.
Posted by: Da' Buffalo | February 21, 2008 9:42 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.

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