McCain's Iraq Dilemma
"Abandoning Iraq is not an option."
That quote is from the deputy prime minister of Iraq, echoing the rhetoric of Sen. John McCain, who is in Iraq now. Thus did Barham Salih deftly insert himself into American electoral politics, making me wonder what the Iraqi elite and the senator mean when they say "Iraq": the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki? The Iraqi business class, which curries favor with the United States and the international community? Those Iraqis who are on "our" side? Or the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of other Iraqis who resent our presence and control, and who fight against us or aid those who do?
If we take our history seriously and ponder the Vietnam war that so haunts the senator from Arizona, we may conclude that the last group will eventually prevail, that the "freedom" that President Bush calls for will win out over flawed government and economic self-interest. Maybe then those Iraqis who desire security and stability above all else will eventually recognize that it is only going to come from within, even if it takes civil war and chaos to get there.
McCain is stuck on the notion that the United States can make Iraq whole, that all we need to do is defeat "al Qaeda" or some other external force. He is also stuck on a view of Iraq and the war that is deeply flawed.
On his current trip, McCain is once again demonstrating his visceral connection to the war and the American military. Almost a year ago, McCain traipsed around a Baghdad market (okay, maybe not "traipsed," because he was traveling inside of cordon of the U.S. military), decrying that the American people were not getting the "full picture" of progress. Later McCain had to back off of his optimistic statement.
McCain's trip is not a "campaign event" and he is not accompanied by a press entourage, but there is no question that we are previewing the 2008 elections. As bad as the American economy is, the Iraq war is ultimately going to determine who the next president will be. And McCain believes in continued American intervention and the military mission.
But as Fareed Zakaria writes, the true challenge in Iraq, regardless of the "success" of the surge, is finding an Iraqi solution. Zakaria quotes an August 2007 essay by David Kilcullen, an Australian military adviser to Gen. David Petraeus, which says that the U.S. must find "a way to create a sustainable security architecture that does not require 'Coalition-in-the-loop.'"
Zakaria calls it a "a self-sustaining process" and asks once again whether American military success in Iraq translates into Iraqi progress. Positive news from Iraq, as Zakaria says, is "more hype than reality." Petraeus himself has been saying since he went to Iraq that we are dependent on Iraqi political progress. The administration's "strategy for victory" in Iraq also recognizes that political and economic progress has to match the military.
McCain? What does he recognize? It will be interesting to see if he comes back with anything new from Iraq or whether, like U.S. forces, he is stuck in a loop. After all, to admit that the political progress isn't keeping pace with the military progress is to admit that "we" have done as much as we can, that his ultimate position is flawed, and that we must withdraw just to give "the Iraqis" a chance.
By William M. Arkin |
March 17, 2008; 9:30 AM ET
Election 2008
, Iraq
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Posted by: 8hik6x4996 | April 2, 2008 6:18 AM
Why is it that conservatives and liberals constantly switch philosphies acccording to the political winds? This whole thing about being a babysitter for Iraquis is hardly the idea of of conservative school of hard knocks and autoresponsibility, etc. The Iraquis are never going to get it together for as long as the US pledges to fund all their skirmishes and pour money into the area for security, ad infinitum. The people now skirmishiung live from war, they have no interest in stopping for as long as we are occupying that place.
Posted by: frank burns | March 26, 2008 9:05 PM
Lao Tzu, sick at the ways of men disappeared into the desert.
Posted by: Hawk58 | March 20, 2008 10:53 PM
Might we solicit analysis from your readers on the path forward? What is the definition of success in Iraq? What specific, executable, causal actions, will enable the desired endstate?
Definition of success: When we can change the beliefs,the culture ,the history,and the philosophies of a entire Muslim nation of disparate groups and tribes.
The horrfying truth is that Mr. Bush and Cheney have manged to lead this nation to one of the most far reaching,costliest,riskiest, millitary,blunders this country has ever been taken into.
No wonder Bush and Cheney must divorce themselves from reality. How else could they live with themselves ? It's easy to sleep knowing you have government paid heathcare, a big book deal,and lucrative talking engagements planned for your future. Not a worry for any of George and Dick's descendants or immediate family.
I'm sure they are proud of their succesful hiest of a nation. Their fianancial portfolios are bursting open thanks to the extrodinary rise in shares of Blackwater and Halliburton the last 4 years. Guess who will get the big financial pat on the back? Someone will be rewarded for eight years of diverting billions of dollars of tax payers money to the coffers of the Proffessional War Purveyrs.No bid con men who have been invited to every intentional and unintentional disaster the last decade and triple charging for the duration.
Posted by: Brollens | March 20, 2008 1:07 AM
Might we solicit analysis from your readers on the path forward? What is the definition of success in Iraq? What specific, executable, causal actions, will enable the desired endstate?
Definition of success: When we can change the beliefs,the culture ,the history,and the philosophies of a entire Muslim nation of disparate groups and tribes.
The horrfying truth is that Mr. Bush and Cheney have manged to lead this nation to one of the most far reaching,costliest,riskiest, millitary,blunders this country has ever been taken into.
No wonder Bush and Cheney must divorce themselves from reality. How else could they live with themselves ? It's easy to sleep knowing you have government paid heathcare, a big book deal,and lucrative talking engagements planned for your future. Not a worry for any of George and Dick's descendants or immediate family.
I'm sure they are proud of their succesful hiest of a nation. Their fianancial portfolios are bursting open thanks to the extrodinary rise in shares of Blackwater and Halliburton the last 4 years. Guess who will get the big financial pat on the back? Someone will be rewarded for eight years of diverting billions of dollars of tax payers money to the coffers of the Proffessional War Purveyrs.No bid con men who have been invited to every intentional and unintentional disaster the last decade and triple charging for the duration.
Posted by: Brollens | March 20, 2008 1:07 AM
Might we solicit analysis from your readers on the path forward? What is the definition of success in Iraq? What specific, executable, causal actions, will enable the desired endstate?
Definition of success: When we can change the beliefs,the culture ,the history,and the philosophies of a entire Muslim nation of disparate groups and tribes.
The horrfying truth is that Mr. Bush and Cheney have manged to lead this nation to one of the most far reaching,costliest,riskiest, millitary,blunders this country has ever been taken into.
No wonder Bush and Cheney must divorce themselves from reality. How else could they live with themselves ? It's easy to sleep knowing you have government paid heathcare, a big book deal,and lucrative talking engagements planned for your future. Not a worry for any of George and Dick's descendants or immediate family.
I'm sure they are proud of their succesful hiest of a nation. Their fianancial portfolios are bursting open thanks to the extrodinary rise in shares of Blackwater and Halliburton the last 4 years. Guess who will get the big financial pat on the back? Someone will be rewarded for eight years of diverting billions of dollars of tax payers money to the coffers of the Proffessional War Purveyrs.No bid con men who have been invited to every intentional and unintentional disaster the last decade and triple charging for the duration.
Posted by: Brollens | March 20, 2008 1:05 AM
How many times, in one man's lifetime can the US stick it's nose into other nations affairs, get involved in a war and then run away without attaining anything other than a bunch of dead kids (?) Once you kiss the frog, baby, it's yours no matter what it turns into. This nation will quickly rally around the flag and listen to the nationalistic drum beating but then, we have no staying power or political will power to "Stay the course". Yep, old Dubya's words. It's no wonder that no nation in the world has any respect for the US. I think China has the right idea. They don't give a hoot what the rest of the world thinks. They go about their own business and if you fool with the Central Authority, they step on you. Hard! The money wasted on this ridiculous game in the middle east could have provided health care for every American. This adventurism could have fixed the social security issue. However, we didn't have the money for those. George W. had his own agenda for Iraq from the minute he was elected and somehow the money for that was found. I say this with a heavy heart because I have been a supporter of George W. from the start. However, I told everyone who would listen that this Iraqi incursion looked eerily similar to the Gulf of Tonkin incident. It's strange to note that McNamara finally admitted the Gulf of Tonkin incident was made up as a justification for a military strike. Sounds like the WMD argument Dubya used. It breaks my heart that there seems to be NO politician in the world that can be trusted and the kids pay the price. No wonder Hugo "wanna be Fidel" Chavez is set to take on the US. He knows we will never pull out all the stops and fight a war the way it should be fought and after we get tired of it we will give him all the money he needs to fix up his country. It seems to me that we have been blessed in this nation but we are bound and determined to do everything exactly wrong just because we can.
Posted by: skip meadows | March 19, 2008 4:21 PM
How many times, in one man's lifetime can the US stick it's nose into other nations affairs, get involved in a war and then run away without attaining anything other than a bunch of dead kids (?) Once you kiss the frog, baby, it's yours no matter what it turns into. This nation will quickly rally around the flag and listen to the nationalistic drum beating but then, we have no staying power or political will power to "Stay the course". Yep, old Dubya's words. It's no wonder that no nation in the world has any respect for the US. I think China has the right idea. They don't give a hoot what the rest of the world thinks. They go about their own business and if you fool with the Central Authority, they step on you. Hard! The money wasted on this ridiculous game in the middle east could have provided health care for every American. This adventurism could have fixed the social security issue. However, we didn't have the money for those. George W. had his own agenda for Iraq from the minute he was elected and somehow the money for that was found. I say this with a heavy heart because I have been a supporter of George W. from the start. However, I told everyone who would listen that this Iraqi incursion looked eerily similar to the Gulf of Tonkin incident. It's strange to note that McNamara finally admitted the Gulf of Tonkin incident was made up as a justification for a military strike. Sounds like the WMD argument Dubya used. It breaks my heart that there seems to be NO politician in the world that can be trusted and the kids pay the price. No wonder Hugo "wanna be Fidel" Chavez is set to take on the US. He knows we will never pull out all the stops and fight a war the way it should be fought and after we get tired of it we will give him all the money he needs to fix up his country. It seems to me that we have been blessed in this nation but we are bound and determined to do everything exactly wrong just because we can.
Posted by: skip meadows | March 19, 2008 4:21 PM
If we had been spending the wasted billions or trillions that we have spent on this Mid East Pi$$ing contest called the Iraq War we could be substantially less dependant on the oil we are held hostage to coming from this volatile region. By just altering our consumption by a small amount the oil companies would react with lower pricing.
Seeing an end to their monopoly would cause them to do drastic things to entice us to keep buying their product.OPEC knows we have not invested in alternatives like we should have been and know that if they "SAY IT, We Pay It" because we have limited ourselves to no other choices.
Posted by: Brollens | March 19, 2008 2:37 PM
The fact that we are debating these equally disasterous options for Iraq is proof that the decision to open this Pandoras Box of calamity and chaos was an unequivical historic blunder for the U.S. The position we have been forced into and the options that are left are all a drain and a threat to our country's economic viability,millitary preparedness and national survival. It was NOT worth it and has long passed the point(several years ago) where it ever could have been seen as the "right choice".
Posted by: Brollens | March 19, 2008 2:25 PM
If 9/11 has taught us anything, it is that an improvised failed state can harbor, sustain and provide training ground for an enemy capable of successful mass casualty operations against CONUS civilian targets. Should Iraq fall to this level of anarchy, it's oil reserves and technically adept workforce will make it a far greater threat to American security than Afghanistan.
A strawman definition of success in Iraq: Iraq is neutralized as a potential terrorist threat to America.
Does this definition of success suit our national interests?
Posted by: Hawk58 | March 18, 2008 8:01 PM
If 9/11 has taught us anything, it is that an improvised failed state can harbor, sustain and provide training ground for an enemy capable of successful mass casualty operations against CONUS civilian targets. Should Iraq fall to this level of anarchy, it's oil reserves and technically adept workforce will make it a far greater threat to American security than Afghanistan.
A strawman definition of success in Iraq: Iraq is neutralized as a potential terrorist threat to America.
Does this definition of success suit our national interests?
Posted by: Hawk58 | March 18, 2008 8:00 PM
ceflynline@msn.com writes:
-- It would seem, counting responses to this blog, that, by an overwhelming majority, the posters want an immediate end to this war. THAT IS a plan. --
I understand the objective is to end the war. But I'm don't quite understand yet what your "plan" is to achieve that objective.
But first, please clarify the objective.
When you say 'war', are you referring to the civil war that is bubbling just below the surface in Iraq? Or are you just refering to American stability operations there? Do you think that pulling out all troops immediately from Iraq will lead to an immediate cessation of hostilities and violence there? And if you assume the the US may be culpable for conditions in Iraq, do you think the US has any responsiblity to make amends? If so, how?
I'm afraid I need a bit more detail to completely understand, and appreciate, your "plan". Thank you.
Posted by: Frank | March 18, 2008 6:57 PM
"Hawk58 writes:
-- Might we solicit analysis from your readers on the path forward? What is the definition of success in Iraq? What specific, executable, causal actions, will enable the desired endstate? --"
It would seem, counting responses to this blog, that, by an overwhelming majority, the posters want an immediate end to this war. THAT IS a plan. Real, succinct, and possible. Also quite necessary.
Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | March 18, 2008 5:06 PM
Hawk58 writes:
-- Might we solicit analysis from your readers on the path forward? What is the definition of success in Iraq? What specific, executable, causal actions, will enable the desired endstate? --
Very funny, Hawk! Trying to interject reasonable analysis and critical thinking into into an online tirade of discontinuous rankor and entrenched argument.
You want analysis? Congent discussion? Enlightened thought? Ha! You're a funny man!!
Posted by: Frank | March 18, 2008 2:44 PM
McCain: "Abandoning Iraq is not an option."
That's just one semantic set which favors our petroleum addiction
The other would say 'Not leaving them in peace to rebuild their country as they see fit, and PRAY that the US hasn't reaped a whirlwind of terrorism washing up on it's sociologically barren shores for the next thousand years or so' would not be an option.
Posted by: Da' Buffalo | March 18, 2008 9:39 AM
==The methodology of spycraft can compromise present or future operations, and in this sense, it is dangerous and foolish to discuss inner workings. I will not do that - so you are quite safe...==
Thanks God, these "secrets" from over 50 years ago will go on protecting our lifestyle and buying power!
I always knew the government has our very best interests at heart, comrade!
Now, go buy another gun to sleep with.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 18, 2008 2:20 AM
//Often, it is mentioned in the context of super-secret knowledge you possess because of this family connection, knowledge you can't reveal to others, knowledge so secret you would have to kill us if you told us.\\ -Dimitry
No; I mention what I feel is historically important, interesting, and enlightening. The only thing that is dangerous to confer and reveal are those things that are essntial to tradecraft. The methodology of spycraft can compromise present or future operations, and in this sense, it is dangerous and foolish to discuss inner workings. I will not do that - so you are quite safe...
Posted by: Plainfacto | March 18, 2008 1:42 AM
==I'm glad you paid attention.==
You do mention it, at least once a week.
Often, it is mentioned in the context of super-secret knowledge you possess because of this family connection, knowledge you can't reveal to others, knowledge so secret you would have to kill us if you told us.
But this knowldege is exactly what proves your current position de jure, to be absolutely, positively correct. Or, alternatively, proves your opposing position tomorrow to be absolutely, completely right.
What's funny is that you don't think it's funny.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 18, 2008 1:31 AM
With an attention span as short as yours, I felt it necessary to keep your feet on the same planet as everyone else's. I'm glad you paid attention.
Truman was one of very few Democrats that I both liked and understood. Although my Dad was a staunch Republican, he often referred to the 'Harry Ass Truman' years favorably and told me some interesting anecdotes about the man and his methods. They were both quasi-racists; however - that is one characteristic that never found a home in my heart.
As far as my Dad was concerned, he thought that Truman was very much the country boy - as my Dad was too. After all - they were both 3rd degree Masons and both had honorary 33rd degree Scottish Rite honors. Now, that is something that history books are hardly aware of...
Posted by: Plainfacto | March 18, 2008 1:22 AM
==Pres. Truman; my Dad was an intelligence advisor to the man - a lateral promotion after the Op 'Cicero' business in Turkey.
==
Thanks for mentioning this, once again (and again, and again). I momentarily forgotten.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 18, 2008 12:40 AM
//As a VRIO, you must be striving to become as unhuman as possible, leaving only the hyper-practical\\ --Dimitry
It's funny that you should mention Pres. Truman; my Dad was an intelligence advisor to the man - a lateral promotion after the Op 'Cicero' business in Turkey.
Calling me a VRIO helps you deal with your own shortcomings; suit yourself if it floats your boat...
Posted by: Plainfacto | March 17, 2008 11:51 PM
==Pretending to be smart hasn't helped you whatsoever...==
We all try to live up to our ideals.
President Bush, for example is trying as hard as he can to think of himself as a "Truman to be", an unpopular President in his time, but one to be appreciated as a near-genius much later. The titanic irony of this comparison obviously escapes him.
As a VRIO, you must be striving to become as unhuman as possible, leaving only the hyper-practical, what's good for my stomach is good for the world attitude. In one of the recent Pelevin's novels, he coined a neat term for you - "rotozhopa", a type of being based entirely on every form of passive consumption. As you can see, it can't be translated into English and be publishable on a family blog.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 17, 2008 11:42 PM
The Iraq War... acting like petulant children and face up to reality.
Posted by: V | March 17, 2008
The Rev would like to thank all of the 'petulant children' of America who stood up to their own government and its sycophants, to demand that legally institutionalized slavery and the American government's support of institutionalized and legalized racism be abolished.
Thank God for those who behaved like 'petulant children' and never accepted the status quo of their time.
And I am certain that the Jews of Austria, Germany and other parts of the world, would thank the petulant children of the USA for helping to stop Hitler, if they were here today.
Of course they might wonder why the USA is behaving just as Hitler once did in Iraq and other free and once free nations of the world!
We can never accept an interventionist policy by our government of the Republican Reich, in other free and once free nations of the world. We can never give in to what George Bush planned when he rushed into Iraq in the first place. He anticipated that there would be a number of American people who like you would say, "oh well, we're here now, lets get over it".
President Bush and company are wage earners, they work for the American people, albeit they stopped being representatives of the American people several years back!
Get in the real world 'V'! Even William F. Buckley got in the real world before he passed on, and challenged Bushes interventionist policies!
Posted by: The Rev | March 17, 2008 10:48 PM
Mr. Arkin,
In "Early Warning" we address the Iraq issue on an ad hock basis, your most loyal posters respond with ad hominem backward focused arguments of the "Who shot John?" genotype. It is a tragic fact that John is no longer with us, but moving on is all that remains.
Might we solicit analysis from your readers on the path forward? What is the definition of success in Iraq? What specific, executable, causal actions, will enable the desired endstate?
Posted by: Hawk58 | March 17, 2008 9:55 PM
Pretending to be smart hasn't helped you whatsoever...
Posted by: Plainfacto | March 17, 2008 7:40 PM
==VRIO==
Russkiy VRIO. Pretending to be an idiot is not a reasonable defense.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 17, 2008 7:10 PM
From Wikipedia:
VRIO, the VRIO framework, is an internal tool of analysis in the context of businesses. VRIO is an acronym for the four question framework you ask about a resource or capability to determine its competitive potential:
1)The Question of Value: "Is the firm able to exploit an opportunity or neutralize an external threat with the resource/capability?"
2)The Question of Rarity: "Is control of the resource/capability in the hands of a relative few?"
3)The Question of Imitability: "Is it difficult to imitate, and will there be significant cost disadvantage to a firm trying to obtain, develop, or duplicate the resource/capability?"
The Question of Organization: "Is the firm organized, ready, and able to exploit the resource/capability"?
Posted by: Plainfacto | March 17, 2008 5:56 PM
"The Iraq War was a horrible horrible decision but now that we are there, you all need to stop acting like petulant children and face up to reality."
Oh, thank you, thank you, great kindly master for pointing us blind fools to the right path!
Who would have guessed that on the pages of a Washington Post blog we ignorant hordes could stumble across this wisdom? And phrased with such delicacy and grace, so that not even those most skeptical of the war could take offense.
Not only does V tell us are we are petulant children, but he generously gives us lessons in ethics--it's morally necessary that we stay, he says. Well, thank Heaven for V. Where would be without him?
Not in Iraq, you say? Fie on you, fie!
Posted by: Petulant child #8 | March 17, 2008 5:38 PM
"The Iraq War was a horrible horrible decision but now that we are there, you all need to stop acting like petulant children and face up to reality."
Oh, thank you, thank you, great kindly master for pointing us blind fools to the right path!
Who would have guessed that on the pages of a Washington Post blog we ignorant hordes could stumble across this wisdom? And phrased with such delicacy and grace, so that not even those most skeptical of the war could take offense.
Not only does V tell us are we are petulant children, but he generously gives us lessons in ethics--it's morally necessary that we stay, he says. Well, thank Heaven for V. Where would be without him?
Not in Iraq, you say? Fie on you, fie!
Posted by: Petulant child #8 | March 17, 2008 5:37 PM
Abandoning Iraq is not an option."
That quote is from the deputy prime minister of Iraq,
It really shouldn't matter what a single Party or group in Iraq wants, what should matter is what the American people want.
Should an Iraqipolitician dictate what American foreign policy towards Iraq ought to be, similar to the way that politicians in Israel dictate American's foreign policy towards Israel?
This man is playing party partisan politics. Just like American political parties believe (the Bushtanista's for example), I am certain that he believes that his party politics are the correct ones.
If America were to respond to a request to remain in Iraq, it ought to be because the request came from a majority of the Iraqi people! We should not forget that the duly elected government in Iraq was elected while Iraq was being occupied!
Posted by: The Rev | March 17, 2008 4:32 PM
==I, for one, could not vote for a president who would expose the human race to such a possibility.==
Bush ringin' a bell?
Posted by: Dimitry | March 17, 2008 4:06 PM
==IMHO, I see Maliki as the villian==
Why not? We gotta have someone to blame.
I for one, blame Maliki's goat.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 17, 2008 4:05 PM
==No Iraqi would agree with you!==
When Idi Amin visited the hostages at Entebbe airport, he told the gathered media - "the hostages are having such a good time, they begged me to stay!"
As a VRIO, you have no moral scupples, but should from time to time fake them, so as to remain credible.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 17, 2008 4:02 PM
//Now, after slaughtering untold hundreds of thousands for what is in the best case a savage mistake,\\ -Dimitry
Still slaughtering imagined Iraqis on the behest of the US? No Iraqi would agree with you!
Posted by: Plainfacto | March 17, 2008 3:11 PM
The necessities/needs of any society to sustain their own is prima facia. It is how well or poor the Iraqis themselves judges it -on an individual level- that either berates their own government or approves of it.
Just imagine what you would think of your own gov't if you didn't have hi-speed internet and Starbucks, movie and a pizza, or fuel for your car.
Of course, Iraqis may not feel comfort the way we do in the West. They have their own requirements. Having more schools, a safer enviornment, and food is how they guage their own gov't. I would like to hear a newspaper story that has ongoing interviews from Iraqis - so they can let us know on a one-to-one basis what they know and feel. Why isn't this the case?
So what is the guage to the Iraqi's dilemma? Would the removal of US forces remove the 'bouncer' from their party? Probably. Would they fair better if there were terrorists bombing in their marketplace or movie house? Absolutely not! SO - we have accomplished much by getting them involved in their own gov't - rather that being oppressed by it the way that Hussain had done.
Have we restored power and water? There is no consensus in the news/reports. Some have said they don't have enough water. I find that hard to believe, and unacceptable to imagine a country that gets hotter than a snake's ass in Arizona if they did not have this essential ingredient. Additionally, the need/use of electric power would mean that all of their basic needs are being met to survive and flourish. Is this need being met?
So much hyperbole, so little verified info. IF the gov't of Iraq has all of these needs restored to its people, then any resistance by Maliki to move gov't forward can be interpreted as siding with the Iranian gov't - instead of their own.
IMHO, I see Maliki as the villian, and I see the US slowly giving the Iraqi people back their gov't. It isn't security, water, power, or food that is holding back the US from leaving - I see Maliki as the greatest hindrance to their own sovereignty and progress. He has appeared to be a puppet of Iran and a traitor to all Iraqis - if one believes the news reports. His only concern has been for separating Shia Iraq from the Sunni and Kurds, because he wants to deprive them of oil revenues - it is a Shi'ite political power play that is based in greed and foments destabilization and conflict.
Either Maliki has no balls, or he is placating the Iranians until we leave. Either way, Maliki remains an enigma and is detrimental to the progress of all Iraqis and the ME as a whole...
Posted by: Plainfacto | March 17, 2008 2:58 PM
McCain has always endorsed a highly militarized view of American foreign policy.
He's more realistic than the Bushies about the death and suffering that accompanies war - but he's on board with most of the 'preemptive war' notions that got us into Iraq.
Now that he's rolled to the Republican right on torture, tax cuts, religious extremism - it's hard to see much daylight between him and Bush at all.
And mission-critical for Bush, and now for McCain, is shifting public attention away from the campaign of naked falsehoods that "brought it on" five years ago.
Posted by: al75 | March 17, 2008 1:59 PM
If the US withdrew the risk of a genocidal civil war would be far greater. I, for one, could not vote for a president who would expose the human race to such a possibility.
Posted by: Chris Corliss | March 17, 2008 1:58 PM
To get the relative lull we now have, he have been arming Sunni militia, who are supposedly on "Our" side, but actually ae simply on their own side. We are also arming the Shia, and the Shia are arming themselves via Iran (if we listen to Petraeus et al). Maliki is playing the U.S. for whatever he can get, but he, his government, and Iraq's Parliament are dong nothing except building their several constituencies. Any attempt to build infrastructure gets destroyed by whatever faction finds it convenient to inconvenience somebody and blame the problem on the U. S.
Unless we begin a final, complete withdrawal from all of Iraq that isn't Kurdistan, and make that withdrawal unarguable, all these factions will continue arming, sniping at each other, jockeying for position, and attacking the U. S. to keep the approval of each his own faction.
An initial blood bath in Iraq when the U. S. withdraws is likely, unless the various armed contingents decide they have a Mexican Standoff. But even with an initial bloodbath, it will quickly become apparent to the various factions that, since the U. S. is just going to let them kill themselves off THEY will have to reach accommodation or eventually reach extinction. The same flow of outside fighters that galls the U. S. now will gall the Iraqis then, until they decide to call the whole blood bath off.
Until the Iraqis determine that that blood bath is a bad idea, we can't help them. Once they decide that that blood bath is the least desirable option, they will be able to help themselves.
The only real losers in this withdrawal will be Haliburton, bechtel, et al, since they won't have unlimited U. S. payments for not accomplishing anything, and won't be likely to get any piece of the reconstruction or eventual oil production, because they will have been run out of the country along with the U. S., and have done nothing to cause the Iraqis to wish to do business with them.
Once somebody (we aren't the ones obviously) gets Iraqi oil production on its old basis, we will be able to buy Iraqi crude again. We just won't be able to loot Iraq in the process.
Since it is Haliburton et al's need to loot Iraq to keep their profits up that continues this war, Haliburton's boys can't accept that particular settlement, and so John McCain has to continue to insist on prosecuting a war in which there is no such thing as victory, so that he won't have to admit that we were beaten before we ever went in.
Any good commander has to know when to call for a fall back to a defensible position. We have no defensible position in Iraq, so need to fall back to positions outside Iraq (where Kurdistan is now outside Iraq) and regroup. If the McClellans, Popes, Porters, Burnsides, Buells, and Rosencranzes have to be sent off to fight Injuns, so be it. 1862 wasn't too good a year, 1863 was only a little better. THIS civil war has no national significance except that George's pride is threatened. That struttin' Texans feelings simply aren't worth my son's life.
Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | March 17, 2008 1:49 PM
Arkin does a nice job of uncovering an assumption made by nearly everyone in the US who comments on Iraq. "Iraq," in the US, means "the people in Iraq the US would like to see assume power." Of course, this is something of a moving target as the US policymakers favor one group over another depending on its own short sighted interests. Yesterday's enemies are today's allies, as long as they take money for not shooting at us.
The only question that should be addressed now is, what can be done to mitigate this enormous disaster the US inflicted on all of the people of Iraq. Questions about US strategic interests, US power, profit, and world standing are completely irrelevant, and shouldn't even be discussed. Even given these parameters, it's unclear what useful thing the US can do at this point. We might start by asking the Iraqis, all of them, what the US could do to help. I think we all know the answer to that one already: get out. Beyond that, I don't know what could be done.
Posted by: CTurner | March 17, 2008 1:38 PM
==The Iraq War was a horrible horrible decision but now that we are there, you all need to stop acting like petulant children and face up to reality. It is strategically necessary and more than that having unleashed the forces of anarchy upon Iraq it is also morally necessary to atleast create viable institutions before we depart.==
I like this analogy. First, the people who started this war sold it as a "defense" against an imminent threat. Now, after slaughtering untold hundreds of thousands for what is in the best case a savage mistake, they are appealing to humanitarian empathy, so they can continue to do the same.
The amazing thing, is there are people foolish enough to keep wiping sentinmental tears and supporting this travesty - murder and neocolonial ownership, mascarading as "help to those pittiful, savage Iraqis". I guess you can really fool some of the people ALL of the time.
Posted by: Dimitry | March 17, 2008 1:24 PM
Until McCain stands up and says that the invasion of Iraq was wrong, he can twist all he wants and he'll never have Credibility. Yes, he has said that the Iraq War was mis-managed but he has always tried to make things look better over there than they really are.
He knew damned well that The Bush Crime Family was bullying the Congress, the World and the American people into supporting an invasion. He knew the consequences of going to War on false pretense (ask McNamara about Vietnam). He failed to stand up when it counted and is, therefore, unsuitable to be the President.
Posted by: thebob.bob | March 17, 2008 1:13 PM
Anatomy of a Tribal Revolt by Dave Kilcullen, Small Wars Journal, 29 August 2007 can be found at http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/08/anatomy-of-a-tribal-revolt/
Posted by: SWJED | March 17, 2008 12:49 PM
Iraqis have to fix Iraq. They know the ground, and no one else has a clue.
Posted by: P. J. Casey | March 17, 2008 12:33 PM
Arkin writes:
-- McCain? What does he recognize? --
It took me 10 seconds to go to McCain's website to answer that question.
www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/fdeb03a7-30b0-4ece-8e34-4c7ea83f11d8.htm
McCain appears to be in sharp agreement with Fareed Zakaria on the overriding need for Iraq to find their own solution. Specifically (from his website):
"While it is crucial to focus military efforts on insurgents, particularly against Sunni fighters using violence to strengthen their political position, John McCain believes there must be a greater emphasis on non-military components promoting economic development and representative, accountable governance.
In territories newly secured by the "clear, hold, and build" counterinsurgency strategy, many of the critical steps to succeeding in Iraq can begin to be implemented. Massive reconstruction can go forward without overwhelming fear of attack and sabotage. A substantial employment program can begin to give hope and opportunity to Iraqi citizens. Political meetings and campaigning can take place more freely. Average Iraqis will be more secure as militias and terrorists are reigned in and violence reduced. All of this will help civil society to emerge and deepen."
"Iraqis need to see tangible improvements in their daily lives or support for the new government will falter."
Posted by: Frank | March 17, 2008 12:27 PM
"As bad as the American economy is, the Iraq war is ultimately going to determine who the next president will be." Amen.
The McCain campaign has tried to position itself to play any turn of events on the ground in Iraq during the next nine months for partisan advantage whichever way the wind blows: if there's a post-surge escalation of violence, it's proof that Al Qaeda is trying to sabotage the GOP's electoral chances and run the cowardly Dems out of Dodge; if things muck along as usual or even show cosmetic signs of temporary improvement, then its evidence that Bush and Petraeus' military policy there is working, so we should all stay the course and support the troops since success is now declared within reach.
I feel the key for the Democrats is whether their nominee can move beyond this shallow partisan gamesmanship with our soldiers' lives and grandchildrens' tax burdens. The issue should be framed instead as how we end this unjustifiable, potentially endless military occupation sooner rather than later, in a manner that minimizes the sectarian and internal political violence that inevitably will take place when American forces finally leave.
Then and only then can the catastrophic domestic economic consequences of George Bush's war in Iraq be addressed with candor.
William T. Street
Saginaw, Michigan
Posted by: william t street | March 17, 2008 12:16 PM
Suppose we pulled out, and the bickering parties suddenly find a way to avert disaster? As long as we are there, they aren't going to. That is pretty obvious, after about 5 years now. Suppose we elect someone who really means business about pulling out -- would there then be a true international coalition for peace?
Posted by: John | March 17, 2008 11:52 AM
Dont the Democrats essentially argue that they will a run a far more moral administration that will renew global trust and faith in the goodwill of the United States??
Leaving Iraq in the most optimistic scenario is an apocalyptic bloodbath. There is nothing to prevent Sunni, Shia militiamen along with common criminals, smugglers, druglord and transnational Islamist groups to each attempt to eke out their personal fiefdoms at the cost of ordinary Iraqi lives. Turkey will essentially occupy the Kurdish north to little opposition and Iran by proxy controls the South. Geopolitically ofcourse this is the ideal situation that the US needs in the Middle East in these times right??
The Iraq War was a horrible horrible decision but now that we are there, you all need to stop acting like petulant children and face up to reality. It is strategically necessary and more than that having unleashed the forces of anarchy upon Iraq it is also morally necessary to atleast create viable institutions before we depart.
Posted by: V | March 17, 2008 11:39 AM
with a new president clinton or obama, we will be able to withdraw from iraq and leave it to the iraqis to solve their own problems instead of insisting on them to solve our problems.
this war will go down in history as the failed 'bush war' and a new president will be able to correctly insist the country no longer has any justification to remain there to rescue the shortsighted folly of the previous president.
Posted by: grasspress | March 17, 2008 11:32 AM
its our enviroment, stupids,.... earth first....all ways....mccain never walks in the woods...........never will..
Posted by: wm musson | March 17, 2008 11:01 AM
We have to Whitdraw Slowly by Surly ,Look at our Home First'The Economy,the Infrastructure, We have to take care Our Country.
Posted by: Alberto | March 17, 2008 10:32 AM
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