In the War Against Terrorism, Intelligence Drones On
Finding a "needle in a needle stack": That's how the head of Army intelligence training described the new challenge of spying in the war on terrorism. Searching for a "needle in a haystack" would be much easier, he says, because at least "there's a visible difference."
In a place like Iraq, the needles are terrorists and their support infrastructure, such as small-scale works where improvised explosive devices are manufactured. Very little is behind the walls of some military compound. There are no tanks or other large pieces of equipment to detect and monitor. In fact, the terrorists live, work and hide in otherwise normal civilian homes, in an urban jumble.
The frustration over finding these needles, and the larger frustration in Iraq and overall in the war against terrorism, is the disconnect between the supposed gravity of the threat and the ability of the intelligence community to produce adequate and timely information to fight it. At one end of the scale is Osama bin Laden's continued ability to evade detection, even after some seven years of looking. At the other is the task of figuring who the enemies are in places like Iraq, much less how many there are and what they are up to.
The intelligence challenge since 9/11 has been to retool a system designed to find large things and monitor militaries and governments into one that is focused on individuals.While there was instant recognition that the old system no longer was appropriate, conceptualizing the new system, let alone implementing it, has been extremely frustrating and difficult.
For attack warning and prevention, "connecting the dots" was at first thought essential, and it is still the dominant activity. But after prolonged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, needle-searching has taken over: The dots are no longer just some disconnected cells lurking in our societies, and though the strength of al Qaeda and Co. is overrated, the scale and scope of the anti-American and anti-Western movement is greater than previously thought. (Or, alternately, it has grown significantly since 9/11 because of the U.S. war in Iraq.)
The intelligence system has introduced all sorts of innovations and technologies to support the fight: Internet monitoring systems (where the bad guys are watched and even fought), data-mining systems (where links are made and where information about new bad guys is developed), biometrics (where the needles are characterized) and "fusion centers" (where the needles are analyzed). There are new human intelligence collection programs as well. But outside of Iraq and Afghanistan at the tactical level, America has still not penetrated the enemy in any meaningful way.
The fight over getting more unmanned reconnaissance aircraft over Iraq and Afghanistan exemplifies how the problem is badly conceptualized. Sure, commanders always want more "intelligence." But a combination of problems -- lack of understanding between the operators and the collectors, inter-service rivalries, fantasies about what intelligence can actually do -- pits the commander's demands against the realities of the collectors.
And then there is the additional and enduring problem of intelligence. More is actually collected than is analyzed. In today's war, this phenomenon manifests itself as severe competition for the video capabilities of high-flying drones, an expensive asset available to support some day-to-day fighting but hardly "intelligence" that is making a dent beyond specific long-term operations.
I've said it before: If Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and the commanders got all the drones they wanted, we would still be losing. The panoply of systems and capabilities cannot see much beyond the immediate. And when we cannot see the problems very far into the future, it's difficult to equip ourselves to address them.
By William M. Arkin |
April 28, 2008; 11:30 AM ET
Future War
, Gates
, Intelligence
, War on Terrorism
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Posted by: The Rev | May 1, 2008 2:25 AM
American Intelligence is oxymoronic,
much like 'The George Bush [Sr.] Center for Intelligence', in Langley Virginia!
George Bush Sr. said 8 years ago, 'the boy will do you good'. Oops!
Point 2: When you consider all of the monies that have been spent by our Federal Government on defense over the last 7.5 years, none of the money or intel protected American citizens on 9/11.
The monies could have been better invested, instead America launched into an unprovoked attack on Iraq, and now all of the money is gone, and Mr. Bush wants more!
Posted by: The Rev | April 30, 2008 1:45 AM
Intelligence? What's intelligent about trying to force a hydrocarbon law down the throat of the Iraqi people at the very same time one is trying to win their "hearts and minds" as part of the "war against terrorism."?
There must be some new and curious technical definition for "intelligence" in the official Pentagon NewSpeak dictionary. That's quite the book, I hear - they may very well have created an entire language in which criticism of the government and/or military is simply impossible - "a regrettable incident of friendly fire" is about as close as one can get.
I wonder how internal Pentagon memos look. . .
"There is a need for message force multipliers to engage with and overwhelm domestic subversive elements promoting defeatist and unpatriotic agendas."
"To avoid any technical violation of the quaint and outdated Smith-Mundt public relations laws, it will be necessary to maintain a discreet profile vis-a-vis our relationships with various "independent third party spokespeople", whether they be retired generals on the boards of major defense firms, or well-known reporters at our nation's leading newspapers."
Yes... anyone can learn to use Pentagon NewSpeak, with a little practice - but it would be nice to get the actual Official NewSpeak(c) dictionary, wouldn't it?
For more on this topic see:
http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/
Posted by: gunboat diplomat | April 29, 2008 4:31 PM
I LOVE AFGHANI PEOPLE!!!!!!
Posted by: joe kikas | April 29, 2008 9:35 AM
Dear Washington Post:
This article observes: "At one end of the scale is Osama bin Laden's continued ability to evade detection, even after some seven years of looking. "
Perhaps because its not there?
It further observes: "But outside of Iraq and Afghanistan at the tactical level, America has still not penetrated the enemy in any meaningful way."
Perhaps because the "enemy" has been mis-identified?
FYI - Please see "From Balance of Terror to Unilateral Terror" which might help explain why: tinyurl.com/4q4gcz
Also, this Press Release from Project Humanbeingsfirst 'The "what can I do for my country" bit!' further clarifies matters by identifying the elusive "enemy" with so much more precision that it can surely assist both the U.S. Army intelligence as well as the Washington Post's erudite bevy of journalists and oped columnists find that elusive '"needle in a needle stack"' - for all will now surely know where to look first: tinyurl.com/4cqhvm
Thank you.
Zahir Ebrahim
Project Humanbeingsfirst.org
Contact: humanbeingsfirst gmail com
Posted by: Project Humanbeingsfirst.org | April 29, 2008 2:01 AM
The USA was warned years ago that it was gearing up for the wrong war. That in part contributed to the successful attack on America on 9/11, the result of willful ignorance, incompetence and elitism!
Speaking of intelligence information, the USA ignored all of the pre-intelligence information that it received internally and from other nations.
So what good is intelligence information anyway, if you are simply going to ignore it?
Examples: The USA was forewarned:
1). Foreigners are learning to fly planes at American flight school(s), but have zero interest in learning how to land the planes. Red flag?
2). Overseas intel chatter and direct information from foreign government(s) indicated - individuals intend to fly Airplanes into American buildings. Red flag?
3). CIA Director Tenet warns the NSA Chief (like the French Leutinent's Woman, the Rev's woman) personally, not only about chatter, but the impending threat to the USA. She must have had the Rev on her mind at the time, for she didn't do anything!
And what did the powers that be do about any of the intelligence information that the taxpayers paid for to be garnered/collected? Nada, the Bushtanistas did nada! Comprende?
And why are 7,000 Americans dead (including the ones who died on 9/11) and another 40,000 wounded? Is it not because of the incompetence and wreckleness of the Bustanistas? Kind of reminds you of pre-intelligence information that the Bustanistas received about the levies in New Orleans - pre Katrina!
And what is the other reason that the Bushtnistas failed, and why are their contractors and others not seeking after good intel as vigorously as they could? Does yellow cake come to mind?
Our arrogant (don't care what Americans, Allies or Military subordinates have to say), ignore good intel, propagandize and fabricate information. Because they lie so much, doubt whether they care anything about the intel that they receive from the lowlifes in different branches of the DIA.
Besides, they are so good at simply making up stories, who needs intel, magic thinking works just as well?
America is fighting its so-called War Against Terrorism (actually nations and people who are reacting to American hegemony); other nations and combatants are fighting A War Against American Totalitarianism!
There is only one thing that the Bushtanistas did properly, have we ever had a finer looking former NSA Chief or Secretary of State. Hmm baby!
Posted by: The Rev | April 28, 2008 10:44 PM
//I've said it before: If Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and the commanders got all the drones they wanted, we would still be losing.\\ -Arkin
Why would the commanders/Gates want materiel theat wouldn't prove useful/effective? On the other side of the coin, what makes you believe that your assesment is better that all of the Pentagon combined?
//The panoply of systems and capabilities cannot see much beyond the immediate. And when we cannot see the problems very far into the future, it's difficult to equip ourselves to address them.\\
For a guy who believes in air power, I find it strange that you don't support the drones - which have already been proven to be somewhat successful for a variety of uses.
You are brewing arguements that are disconnected and are meant to provoke w/o any one purpose in mind. I still think you would complain if you were to hung with a new rope. Frank, you were right about that point...
Posted by: Plainfacto | April 28, 2008 9:17 PM
Arkin hypothesizes:
1) Background -- "While there was instant recognition that the old system no longer was appropriate, conceptualizing the new system, let alone implementing it, has been extremely frustrating and difficult."
2) Problem -- "The panoply of systems and capabilities cannot see much beyond the immediate. And when we cannot see the problems very far into the future, it's difficult to equip ourselves to address them."
3)Solution -- Not provided.
Actually, Arkin, there's another perspective on 'the problem' which you conveniently ignore. In order to find that 'needle in a haystack' effectively and quickly (or as you write " ... the terrorists live, work and hide in otherwise normal civilian homes, in an urban jumble.") one would need to (1) infringe or personal freedoms, liberties, and abridge their rights; or (2) gain the confidence of the community in which the terrorist live and hide.
You're right in stating that the current technology is necessary, but not sufficient, to address that problem. But after reading your blog for the fifth time, I still don't know what your point is -- or what course of action you recommend the Pentagon pursue.
Posted by: Frank | April 28, 2008 8:15 PM
The despotism of the Military Industrial Complex *corporatist* (as in Fascism) structure in action.
Posted by: Da' Buffalo Amongst
And where will the FoMoCo parts be manufactured, in Bahrain?
Someone should rewrite the story, A Man Without A Country. I know of two men who will be without a country after January 2008.
And I doubt whether any nation in the world, even Israel, would accept them!
Ever hear that joke, how come New Jersey received all of the toxic waste dumps, and California (my state) got all the lawyers.
Answer: New Jersey got to pick first. And that is what is going to happen with Bush and Cheney, less toxic waste dumps will be selected first!
Posted by: The Rev | April 28, 2008 6:53 PM
If Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and the commanders... The panoply of systems and capabilities cannot see much beyond the immediate...!
In the meantime which group continues to underwrite the costs for the war, intelligence gathering, repair to Iraq's infrastructure that was needlessly damaged in the first place, payroll costs for over 100,000 Iraqis, future medical care for America's wounded...the 1B cost for the new American embassy in Iraq?
It is the American taxpayers, the same group whose members are experiencing recession, loss of homes and jobs - and at the same time experiencing the high costs of oil, rice, corn, wheat, barley, energy ... what did I miss? How about another tax cut for the wealthy?
The good news: I learned from Wikipedia that "until 1933, Inauguration Day was March 4th. At least we don't have to wait until March 4th to say goodby to the Bushtanistas!
The real problem with Intelligence is probably not the Defense Intelligence Agencies (the Executive cherry-picked the information anyway), the real Intelligence failure is at 1600 Pennsylvania!
I suspect that America's military leaders are looking forward to new leadership at the top in January 2008, regardless of 'her' political stripe!
On the other hand, most of us will receive a $600 refund vs oil @ $115.71 a barrel - 'we're in the money'!
Posted by: The Rev | April 28, 2008 6:42 PM
P.J. Casey: "The Air Force doesn't have to be the only customer."
Right.
U.S. to dispatch drones to hunt pot over Calif. forests from mcclatchydc.com: Nation
The federal government plans to escalate its eradication of marijuana plantations in the backwoods of national forests this year, beginning in California with the deployment of larger strike teams and the controversial launching of miniature, remote-controlled spy planes to outfox growers, a top Bush administration official said Thursday.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/200/story/32657.html
Real-Time Video Relay for UAV Traffic Surveillance Systems Through Available Communication Networks
Yu Ming Chen; Liang Dong; Jun-Seok Oh
Wireless Communications and Networking Conference, 2007.WCNC 2007. IEEE
Volume , Issue , 11-15 March 2007 Page(s):2608 - 2612
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/WCNC.2007.485
Summary:The unmanned aerial vehicle can be an efficient and economical solution to real-time surveillance of highway traffic. This paper describes a data link that connects the camera onboard an unmanned aerial vehicle to the monitoring terminals in the office of the Michigan Department of Transportation. A video signal captured by the surveillance camera can be either displayed on the terminals in real time, or stored on ground for future off-line analysis. The video signal is relayed via available mobile communication networks. An addition server is used in practice to guarantee the consistency of data flow and high throughput of the communication channel.
Posted by: Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves | April 28, 2008 3:52 PM
Lots of frustration out there and blame enough for everyone on this cluster. How about the meathead reporter that wrote the story that the US Intelligency agencies were able to track Bin Laden on his cell phone? That was the last trace we had of him. Not all idiots are in the CIA although they do have their share.
Posted by: skip Meadows | April 28, 2008 2:51 PM
I'm just as much for permanent war, invading countries, megabuck contracts that do not have to be fulfilled, etc. as the next guy.
The "needle in a needle stack" approach lends itself to a great deal of pain on US citizens inside the USA.
The missing reporting is the war on US citizens through the intelligence community use of this equivalent of the 1% doctrine that allows dubious invasions.
Covert operations inside the USA against US citizens targeting, gassing, entering, progressively grinding off teeth, ripping out hair, injecting mystery substances to produce instant wrinkles and marks, are all part of the Monarch project spin off of MKUltra mind control used to split personalities for monarch slave shooters on the self, sex slaves for porn, and the casual mass murders committed by lone gunmen.
I am not interested in the drones in the war, but the mutilations that artificially age and make your teeth hurt once half of the front lower and upper incisors have been ground away.
The megabillions poured into intelligence is not all war on terror related: a great deal is going into illegal, unconstitutional, and crimes against humanity covert ops inside our nation.
Until the sociopaths-R-US covert ops using Ritual Abuse Trauma (R.A.T.) of the Monarch project/MKUltra spin-offs are addressed there is no discussion of intelligence activity in the War on Terror.
All it takes to be targeted for this activity is refuse to participate in corruption, which makes you a needle in the hay stack object of Monarch/MKUltra covert ops R.A.T. daily progressive trauma/mutilations.
Sure I'm as happy to invade other countries as the next guy But I draw the line on getting mutilated to cover up racketeering in medicine that has nothing to do with the war on terror Empire building, just racketeering here in the USA.
Posted by: George | April 28, 2008 2:33 PM
It would be more appropriate to view Drones as reconnaissance or attack unmanned aircraft. They "scout" the battlefield, giving information on the terrain and who occupies it. However, observing people on the ground may not tell you their mission unless they are armed or deployed for combat. Intelligence may give you information on a proposed attack before it takes place.
In any case, Drones can be useful to any branch of the military as reconnaissance or attack vehicles. The Air Force doesn't have to be the only customer.
Posted by: P. J. Casey | April 28, 2008 2:15 PM
It's notable that Ford Motor Company no longer needs to manufacture automobiles to maintain it's profit margin, and the ones they do manufacture/market are still powered almost exclusively by petro-chemical products.
Meanwhile, FoMoCo has highly paid open ended Pentagon contracts for Hydrogen powered UAVs manufactured by aerospace union employees who are treated like royalty even as UAW workers stand in the unemployment line.
The despotism of the Military Industrial Complex *corporatist* (as in Fascism) structure in action.
Posted by: Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves | April 28, 2008 11:50 AM
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What the Head of the Joint Chiefs said to analyst, Dr. Ryan in the movie: The Hunt for Red October!
Come on.
You're just an analyst! I suspect that the same type of behavior is common with the higher ups in DC, with respect to those on the lower echelons who gathered info.
Remember my favorite whipping boy who couldn't protect the Pentagon, he didn't cooperate with anyone - to include other Cabinet Members from the NSA or State Department; he ignored the Generals who served under him, he ignored old Europe (America's allies), and he demanded and eventually got his own private Defense Intelligence Agency.
And for all of that where is he today? Fired!