War with Iran? That Will Be for the Next President

There was a moment in April 1990, when Saddam Hussein was appearing on the covers of all of the news magazines, threatening to "burn" half of Israel and brandishing new chemical and biological weapons, when we should have known that the United States would eventually go to war with Iraq. It was almost four months before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and most people hadn't thought much about the country, but war gamers and planners in the Pentagon began shifting their attention.

We are now at a similar moment with Iran. Short of Iran invading one of its neighbors or attacking U.S. forces in some obvious and gross way, the Iran war isn't going to be Dick Cheney's war. It will be waged by Hillary Clinton, John McCain or Barack Obama.

I know this statement seems to contradict earlier posts I've written about why the United States is not going to war with Iran this year. But it dawns on me that all of the signs are coming together that parallel our Iraq history.

A "strategic" justification is accumulating: weapons of mass destruction, rogue state, supporter of terrorism, enemy of Israel. Diplomats and cooler heads could prevail, and Tehran could even change course, but there is no doubt that the momentum is building for war, and with each accumulating justification and change in circumstance, tensions propel a further set of bad decisions that just add to the momentum.

Just look at the facts:

* The Iraq war itself is winding down, just as the Cold War was winding down in 1990. Whether residual American forces are maintained in Iraq for "counter-terrorism" or permanent bases are maintained, the U.S. military has a full war-making infrastructure in the region: in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the other Gulf states. What is more, the U.S. is building up its forces in Afghanistan (Iran's neighbor) and will likely continue to do so in the coming months. The purpose of the Afghanistan surge may not be to threaten Iran, but it will have that effect.

* Tehran is continuing to develop nuclear weapons. The ever-cautious Secretary of Defense Robert Gates characterizes Iran as "hell-bent" on acquiring nuclear weapons. I don't think Iran will ever get to the point of ever possessing a nuclear bomb (just as Saddam never was close to his own dream). But there will be months and years ahead of unsatisfying inspections and diplomatic wrangling and Washington -- with its view that WMD is the most important issue and that nuclear weapons justify preemption (even Obama says so) -- will eventually grow weary. Weariness will turn to tension and Iran will either feel like it has no incentive to cooperate (that is, that "regime change" is coming anyhow even if it cooperates) or it will burrow its clandestine program even deeper. The end product is confrontation.

* Iran has now been designated terrorism's No. 1 ally, leading the world in the support for terrorism. That's what the State Department said yesterday in its annual terrorism report. Iran is not only the world's "most active" state sponsor, supporting terrorists in the Palestinian territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran's Revolutionary Guards give weapons and training that directly results in the death of American soldiers.

* An increasingly active covert action program exists with Iranian expatriate "democratic" groups, monarchists, and a wide variety of self-interested scoundrels to foment regime change in Tehran. Much of this activity is related to collecting intelligence from inside the country, on WMD and the regime and its connections to terrorism. Can anyone say Chalabi, or Curveball? The parallels with Iraq are eerie indeed.

* The U.S. military continues to build war plans for Iran, from small scale "response options" relating to attack on WMD infrastructure and retaliations for Iranian acts to full scale "over-the-beach" invasions. These plans go back to 1970s plans to defend Iran from a Soviet invasion and have gone through generations of changes since then, both to account for the changed political circumstances and the changes in the U.S. military and its capabilities. By late 2006, my sources tell me, response options and plans had been drafted in response to Bush administration directives to address a variety of possible contingencies. Now they are being constantly updated.

Gates, during a visit to Mexico on Tuesday, denied that the United States was preparing for military attacks on Iran. And Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said, "I just want to be abundantly clear that there are no new directives, there are no new plans in the works, there is no new effort to prepare for a possible war with Iran."

In other words, there are no orders and no new war planning. Sounds like Iraq -- right up to the eleventh hour.

It isn't a second aircraft carrier or the deployment of a B-1 bomber unit that is going to signal war with Iran. And mark my words, there isn't going to be a war this year. But there is clearly an accumulating sense in the Pentagon and the national security community, both inside and outside government, that war with Iran may be in the future. And who better to be at the helm for the new president than Gen. David Petraeus, the savior of the United States in Iraq?

By William M. Arkin |  May 1, 2008; 12:15 PM ET Election 2008 , Iran
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Comments

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Mr. Arkin,

You say:
"Tehran is continuing to develop nuclear weapons."

The precision of this claim is probably the most important factual issue in discussing Iran policy. NIE of Nov07 ruled this claim not to be justified. As an influential and supposedly responsible journalist what is your concrete evidence to support this critical claim contrary to NIE? You just quote Gate's opinion on that, but we have had enough of Bush administration opinions' becoming "facts", please take your journalistic responsibility seriously or the environment you help create will get us into another war with no real reason.

Posted by: HR | May 12, 2008 12:54 PM

==Charlie will have all of the opportunities his dad can afford for him.==

Anything at all troubles you with the above statement?

I guess not.

Posted by: Dimitry | May 6, 2008 3:06 PM

Rev,

Of course there is poverty and violence in America. It is in every major city. The question for you is how do you fix something that doesn't want to be fixed or can't be fixed. Every society has a certain amount of people on the outside that for some reason stay there. No matter what you do you will not beable to fix the entire problem. Help as many as can be helped through education and welfare until they are ready for the step up. This does exist in the USA and there are people who pull themselves out of poverty and make something of their lives. Unfortunately there are many more fo which there is nothing that can be done except for incarceration. Maybe they will see the light there and take advatage of an opportunity. If not they will be released and then reoffend and back they go to jail. This leaves the mothers and children to fall through the cracks of our democracy but what more can you do. Some people will always hurt even here in the US.

Now for Iran, Iraq and North Korea there are just not the opportunities and even those who just have opinions of their own like you and I can't express them with out fear of death.

The US overall has a better society then most any of the countries we are currently having trouble with. Name one that is better.

Charlie will have all of the opportunities his dad can afford for him. If I say the wrong thing and someone doesn't like it little Charlie and his dad are free.

Rev. You just can't make an argument against me.

Charlie's Dad

Posted by: Charlie's Dad | May 5, 2008 2:45 PM

Iran, Iraq, Syria, muslims and oil are not going away, they are getting closer by the day. Inflation and the ghost of recession are here, some talk about depression already.

Of course we are going to have more war, a month or a year from now doesn't matter. What matters is how are we going into the next front. The US and Co. can't stretch their forces anymore. It's just logistically not possible. More conventional warfare? Another big bleeding front/s? I don't think so. We should be talking about how the occident is going to play its might this time around. You know what I mean, big guns or dive into a depression. Therefore the current delay.

Posted by: Layman | May 5, 2008 2:36 AM

America the melting pot... so many nationalities under one flag, yet only the ARKINS of this country are available to tell us about Homeland Security.

The monopoly in itself is a true weapon of mass destruction.

I remember how a whole nation listened with awe at their tall tales for Iraq, and today their methods are intact.

"***A "strategic" justification is accumulating: weapons of mass destruction, rogue state, supporter of terrorism, enemy of Israel.***"

Big woop! Move to that country and fight if you're that concerned about it.

As for me and my family, we will worship the Lord. That doesn't involve sacrificing my children for your goals, at all; as Pastor (impostor) Hagee advocates. Nor should any other American child be made to go.

The ink from your pen is poisonous.

Posted by: Concerned | May 5, 2008 2:15 AM

Rev,

It is a waste of time trying to get you to open your mind and see more then "US BAD" and "ANYWHERE ELSE GOOD"

Poor Charlie's dad,

You gave up quickly, and yes it is a time of time trying to get me to accept propaganda. It is too bad that I couldn't get you to see that there are two sides of America, very good and very bad.

It is amazing how quickly you and other sgive up so quickly, perhaps that explains why Bush was so quick to bomb Iraq after being in office for about 2 years. Well, he did give Saddam time to capitulate like 48 hours.

Just don't brainwash your kid Charlie, perhaps someday the old man will learn that there is more than one side of a story!

Posted by: The Rev | May 3, 2008 5:19 PM

sorry, joking with the guy arguing w/dimitry.

Posted by: Jaleh | May 3, 2008 2:13 PM

==I think you ought to volunteer, or ask Israelis to do their job themselves if they happen to have any REAL MAN over there.==

I was always against the war in Iraq and find no reasons whatsoever to have a war with Iran.

Perhaps you didn't read my commentary correctly. I also don't think that appeals to "machismo" is really usefull in resolving conflicts.

Posted by: Dimitry | May 3, 2008 1:46 PM

Dimitry,

There was this neocon who RIGHT after the Iraqi invasion, started to advertise for Israel's next war, paid with American blood and money. He used to say:

"Anyone can go to Baghdad, but REAL MEN will go to Tehran."

Do you think that the reason that Neocons have FAILED an Iran invasion in the past 6 years, is the absence of "real men" in the US? I think you ought to volunteer, or ask Israelis to do their job themselves if they happen to have any REAL MAN over there.

Posted by: jaleh | May 3, 2008 10:51 AM

Dimitry,

There was this neocon who RIGHT after the Iraqi invasion, started to advertise for Israel's next war, paid with American blood and money. He used to say:

"Anyone can go to Baghdad, but REAL MEN will go to Tehran."

Do you think that the reason that Neocons have FAILED an Iran invasion in the past 6 years, is the absence of "real men" in the US? I think you ought to volunteer, or ask Israelis to do their job themselves if they happen to have any REAL MAN over there!

Posted by: Jaleh | May 3, 2008 10:41 AM

First of all, there has not been found any smoking gun about Iran's nuclear program, and so far all of accusation are lie and baseless.
Iran as a NPT member has every right to enrich uranium and it will.
The Bush & MCCain failed policy & US occupation of Iraq gave Iran a rare opportunity to spread its
influence inside Iraq and US cannot remove Iran's allies from power.
Iran not only control the country's politics, but also run
their own militia inside the interior and foreign ministries. Shia organisations such
as the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Al-Daawa Party, Al-Fadila Party and
the Sadr current have one thing in common -- they are all loyal to Tehran.

Posted by: Kevin | May 3, 2008 8:09 AM

War with Iran for next President? That's far TOO long to wait:

-------------------------------------------
A CounterPunch Exclusive
Democrats Okay Funds for Covert Ops
Secret Bush "Finding" Widens War on Iran
By ANDREW COCKBURN

Six weeks ago, President Bush signed a secret finding authorizing a covert offensive against the Iranian regime that, according to those familiar with its contents, "unprecedented in its scope."

Bush's secret directive covers actions across a huge geographic area - from Lebanon to Afghanistan - but is also far more sweeping in the type of actions permitted under its guidelines - up to and including the assassination of targeted officials. This widened scope clears the way, for example, for full support for the military arm of Mujahedin-e Khalq, the cultish Iranian opposition group, despite its enduring position on the State Department's list of terrorist groups.

Similarly, covert funds can now flow without restriction to Jundullah, or "army of god," the militant Sunni group in Iranian Baluchistan - just across the Afghan border -- whose leader was featured not long ago on Dan Rather Reports cutting his brother in law's throat.

Other elements that will benefit from U.S. largesse and advice include Iranian Kurdish nationalists, as well the Ahwazi arabs of south west Iran. Further afield, operations against Iran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon will be stepped up, along with efforts to destabilize the Syrian regime.

All this costs money, which in turn must be authorized by Congress, or at least a by few witting members of the intelligence committees. That has not proved a problem. An initial outlay of $300 million to finance implementation of the finding has been swiftly approved with bipartisan support, apparently regardless of the unpopularity of the current war and the perilous condition of the U.S. economy.

Until recently, the administration faced a serious obstacle to action against Iran in the form of Centcom commander Admiral William Fallon, who made no secret of his contempt for official determination to take us to war. In a widely publicized incident last January, Iranian patrol boats approached a U.S. ship in what the Pentagon described as a "taunting" manner. According to Centcom staff officers, the American commander on the spot was about to open fire. At that point, the U.S. was close to war. He desisted only when Fallon personally and explicitly ordered him not to shoot. The White House, according to the staff officers, was "absolutely furious" with Fallon for defusing the incident.

Fallon has since departed. His abrupt resignation in early March followed the publication of his unvarnished views on our policy of confrontation with Iran, something that is unlikely to happen to his replacement, George Bush's favorite general, David Petraeus.

Though Petraeus is not due to take formal command at Centcom until late summer, there are abundant signs that something may happen before then. A Marine amphibious force, originally due to leave San Diego for the Persian Gulf in mid June, has had its sailing date abruptly moved up to May 4. A scheduled meeting in Europe between French diplomats acting as intermediaries for the U.S. and Iranian representatives has been abruptly cancelled in the last two weeks. Petraeus is said to be at work on a master briefing for congress to demonstrate conclusively that the Iranians are the source of our current troubles in Iraq, thanks to their support for the Shia militia currently under attack by U.S. forces in Baghdad.

Interestingly, despite the bellicose complaints, Petraeus has made little effort to seal the Iran-Iraq border, and in any case two thirds of U.S. casualties still come from Sunni insurgents. "The Shia account for less than one third," a recently returned member of the command staff in Baghdad familiar with the relevant intelligence told me, "but if you want a war you have to sell it."

Even without the covert initiatives described above, the huge and growing armada currently on station in the Gulf is an impressive symbol of American power.
-------------------------------------------
www.counterpunch.com

Posted by: Dimitry | May 3, 2008 1:30 AM

170.000 US + 90000 fragile-loyaliraqis versus approximately 20 million hateful djihadists. No borders for them .They float from Marocco,Mauretania all the wway East to Pakistan and Indonesia. Some expert say 1.4 billion , i also heard 60 millions.Fraction , Ready to put their life in harms way for the cause of killing israel and USA and of course after that the rest of the infidels too, about 1/3rd .

GEN PEtraeus should advise in good order retreat into safe grounds for now.Even if it means separation at gunpoint from the fragile-loyal forces. Reason : we are not ready for that.To many open questions including homefront here a few examples:
1) United 93 wingspann B757 1.4 larger then the impact groove in the Pentagon
2)Seperatistic culture churches , obama speech needs bitter gunholders clinging to bible(codeword for Quaran) , Fort Dix bombings,wrapmusic text in Wrap music over internet advises the gunholders to stack explosives.
3)15 million muslim descent citizens unsupervised/unmonitored within the states.
4) iraq has 18 provinces ,14 of them welcome the USA as liberators, other 4 want to have us out. We need
to do maneuvering accordingly to satisfy the desires of all the people peacefully.

Posted by: hlg | May 3, 2008 1:19 AM

Dimitry,

If women are really smart, they will take over the seats of power in government, and send the men off to war, since all some of our men want to do is build new weapons systems and invade countries.

The other benefit will be that women can walk the streets without worrying about being raped - since the men will all be away fighting!

Posted by: The Rev | May 2, 2008 10:42 PM

//Its rights to a civilian nuclear program is enshrined in the NPT.\\ -Dimitry

==Oh no -its now being enshrined?!?
By you?==

No, maroon, it is enshrined in the treaty - it uses words "unaleanble right".


==Uh oh - you are going to guarantee what Iran does in the future?==

No, maroon, I can't even guarantee what my President is going to do in the next 3 months. But I do find Iran's approach to nuclear energy quite rational and logical - create deterrent within confines of the NPT treaty. Of course, the President's approach is anything but - he may order a bombing campaign, whether Iran is in or is not in compliance with some "quaint" piece of itnernational law.

==Or has the NPT being enshrined by writing it in stone - as you declare?==

It is a binding piece of international law and everything we try to press Iran with is connected to the NPT.


==Poor ElBaradei might be lucky if he gets a job as a shoe clerk - if he was wrong to say there are too much misinformation being supplied by Iran concerning the extent of their compliance.==

I don't think ElBaradei is hurting for a job - and he has consistently advocated allowing Iran's civilian nuclear program to continue. That is the law.


==I take a size eleven in wide - thanks EB.
Got any 'wingtips'?==

The chances are far better that your next job will be guarding ElBaradei's luggage as part of the Blackwater detail. Don't forget to shoot at any families that come near, you hear!

Posted by: Dimitry | May 2, 2008 8:49 PM

Rev,

It is a waste of time trying to get you to open your mind and see more then "US BAD" and "ANYWHERE ELSE GOOD" This is from you:
==With respect to Iraq, Iran and North Korea, the citizens of those countries (roughly 100 million) seem to be as happy with their countries as you are with America.==
North Koreans are experiencing famine and those people are dying in large numbers. The average North Korean is several inches shorter then the average South Korean.
Iran has executes men for being gay. Iranian friends of mine love their country but know that freedom is a joke.
Iraq. You are just crazy here Rev.

The average American is far better off then the average citizen of any of the above countries and ahead of most of the countries in this world I live in.

Your world is dark and unhappy. If you are a woman a lot of what you are saying can be easily explained away and if you are a man pull up your skirt a get a job.

I have worked a very long day and I get bored easily when I am tired so goodbye.

Charlie's Perfect Dad

Posted by: Charlie's Dad | May 2, 2008 8:10 PM

William Lind, writing from the Center for Cultural Conservatism, fears the slaughter of US troops in Iraq, if we bomb Iran. Iranian regulars and Iraqi militias, grossly outnumbering US forces, could cut off US supply lines from Kuwait. "[W]e could lose the army now deployed in Iraq," said Lind in an Antiwar.com piece. If that happens, "American power and prestige would never recover." Consequences at home could be as ugly as those abroad. An attack on Iran would be an invitation to a retaliatory terrorist attack on American turf, and, as Pentagon Papers author Daniel Ellsberg has pointed out, "if there's another 9/11 or a major war in the Middle-East involving a U.S. attack on Iran there will be, the day after or within days an equivalent of a Reichstag fire decree that will involve massive detentions in this country, detention camps for middle-easterners and their...sympathizers, critics of the President's policy and essentially the wiping-out of the Bill of Rights."

Posted by: Eric | May 2, 2008 8:08 PM

//Its rights to a civilian nuclear program is enshrined in the NPT.\\ -Dimitry

Oh no -its now being enshrined?!?
By you?
Uh oh - you are going to guarantee what Iran does in the future?
Or has the NPT being enshrined by writing it in stone - as you declare?
Poor ElBaradei might be lucky if he gets a job as a shoe clerk - if he was wrong to say there are too much misinformation being supplied by Iran concerning the extent of their compliance.
I take a size eleven in wide - thanks EB.
Got any 'wingtips'?

Posted by: Plainfacto | May 2, 2008 7:07 PM

==Any Iranian ambiguity that has to do with nukes by this gov't is seen as a SERIOUS threat and needs to be answered beyond any shadow of a doubt. Both the IAEA and the US/GB/EU are waiting for full/complete compliance..==

There really isn't any ambiguity with "NUKES", though the ignorant or malicious will always try to conflate anything "NUKULA" into a scary boogeyman to frighten the "soccer moms". Though, lately, even they are against attacking yet another ME country on no evidence.

Iran has no "NUKES" and no military nuclear program according to the CIA. Its rights to a civilian nuclear program is enshrined in the NPT.

It has not been declared in violation of the NPT.

I am not sure what reasons there are for a military attack on Iran, except our current policy of relentless aggression or our leaders personal psychoses.

Posted by: Dimitry | May 2, 2008 5:20 PM

Dimirty knuckle-dragger:

We had this arguement once before. We both came to the same conclusions that I just wrote previously. Have you forgotten already - or did you want to raise another school of herrings to the mix?

Posted by: Plainfacto | May 2, 2008 4:35 PM

//Read the bible; it told something about a splinter in another one's eye and a wooden plank in front of the own one's.\\ -Sven

That's right. But we are not talking about hypocrisy; we were discussing the ambiguities of Iran vs the IAEA.

You raised a poor argument as well. Scream at Russia snd China in the same breath if you wanted to do it right. If you are so willing to cast stones in the wrong direction; you just might be a pseudo-lib. I guess you chose to forget that whole truth while trying to appear righteous externally...

Nothing like trying to get a cheap shot in -eh?

Posted by: Plainfacto | May 2, 2008 4:32 PM

==No, they haven't. That is a myth perpetrated by the pseudo-libs that have the caboose before the train.

The IAEA has stated that there are quite of unanswered discrepancies that Iran should have volunteered to clear up.==

Has Iran been declared in violation of the NPT, which is the governing legal document pertaining to this whole episode?

They have not been. Their case has been sent to the UNSC, after a US-facilitated strong-arm vote by the IAEA governing body. Many legal experts beleive this to be itself in violation of the international law. The country has to be first declared to be in violation of the NPT, and only then referred to the UNSC as potential threat to peace and security, not the other way around. But declarations of guilt by inability to prove the negative appears to be our specialty.

Hs IAEA found ANY evidence of an ellicit military nuclear program?

They have not. CIA says that they have, but the work stopped in 2003.

Has IAEA in years of aggressive inspections found any evidence of "special" materials being diverted away from the declared civilian program, a tell-tale sign of NPT non-compliance?

They have not.

Is it a legally protected right for Iran under the NPT to have an extensive civilian nuclear power program with full fuel cycle mastery?

Yes it is.

Are there questions remaining to be cleared by Iran for the IAEA?

Yes. Iran is a signatory to the NPT and has to answer to the inspection agency specified in that treaty.

Israel, which has never even signed the NPT and has hundreds of nuclear weapons on a redundunt delivery triad, answers to no one.

Posted by: Dimitry | May 2, 2008 4:25 PM

"Both the IAEA and the US/GB/EU are waiting for full/complete compliance.."

Yeah, and 90% of the world is waiting for the day when the USA don't have enough nukes anymore for killing the entire mankind!
The USA is the very last country with legitimation to exert pressure on Iran, the very last one!

Read the bible; it told something about a splinter in another one's eye and a wooden plank in front of the own one's.

Afaik it's historical fact that not a single invasion was staged from Persian/Iranian soil since 1729. Consider this as a challenge to prove the opposite.

And when did the USA invade a sovereign country illegally for the last time? I think it was 2003.
The USA do so on average once per decade - which is an improvement over the once per year average of early 20th century.

Posted by: Sven Ortmann | May 2, 2008 4:18 PM

//How 'dem knuckles dragging on the ground?\\ -Dimitry

Fine.
Thanks.
And You?

Posted by: | May 2, 2008 2:05 PM

//Hasn't the IAEA given Iran basically a clean bill?\\ -Tim

No, they haven't. That is a myth perpetrated by the pseudo-libs that have the caboose before the train.

The IAEA has stated that there are quite of unanswered discrepancies that Iran should have volunteered to clear up. As of now, they refuse to do so. I don't believe - however - that they have built any weapons as yet. That does not mean - however - that they already haven't acquired some on the black market at the fall of the USSR. Little can be verified and nothing has been proven to anyone's satifaction either way.

Any Iranian ambiguity that has to do with nukes by this gov't is seen as a SERIOUS threat and needs to be answered beyond any shadow of a doubt. Both the IAEA and the US/GB/EU are waiting for full/complete compliance..

Posted by: Plainfacto | May 2, 2008 2:03 PM

==If women are going to be in the higher eshelons of politics, they had better learn...==

How 'dem knuckles dragging on the ground?

Posted by: Dimitry | May 2, 2008 1:41 PM

//How did you feel about Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker of the House!\\ -The Rev

I felt that Pelosi should have been impeached for some of the Bovine Scatology she involved herself in. If women are going to be in the higher eshelons of politics, they had better learn not to use high-school girl mentalities/games to represent the American citizens in order to get their ways.

Could you imagine if John McCain used crocodile tears to get his way - in the same way the Hillary used crocodile tears to no/little avail in the recent past? He would have been laughed off the podium! But Hillary thought she could get away with that crap!
No dice - sister...

Posted by: Plainfacto | May 2, 2008 1:33 PM

Your "facts" are all disputable: What evidence do you have that Iran is developing nuclear weapons? Hasn't the IAEA given Iran basically a clean bill? And what about daily terrorism by Israel, terrorizing innocent civilians in Gaza? Doesn't that constitute terrorism in your book Bill? But of course not, we've all read Jimmy Carter's book about pundits' sheepish obedience to Israel's regime of truth!!

Posted by: Tim | May 2, 2008 12:50 PM

That's what I'm saying...

Plainfacto,

Time will tell Plainfactor, for there will be more of them over the years. How did you feel about Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker of the House!

Posted by: The Rev | May 2, 2008 11:29 AM

//So are you saying that it wouldn't bother you if it was a differen female?\\ -The Rev

That's what I'm saying...

Posted by: Plainfacto | May 2, 2008 11:03 AM


Hopefully, it won't be Hillary.
Plainfactco,

So are you saying that it wouldn't bother you if it was a differen female? Come on plainfacto, in addition to being a closet conservative who parades under the banner of being an Independent voter, you are likely as misogynistic as most males are in this country!

The intuitive abilities of a strong skilled caring female would not only benefit America, it would benefit the whole world - the boyz have made a mess of things, and they intend to continue on the same testosterone course!

BTW, just think of your last choice for President & Veep, George Bush, Dick Cheney, and for that matter I don't care what anyone thinks (fellow-cabinet members, generals, allies or the American people), Don Rumsfool.

The definition of insanity, i.e., to repeat the same behavior and expect different results - America has engaged in that practice for 232 years, by voting for white males - and where has it gotten America? Ans. On the verge of being blown up!

Posted by: The Rev | May 2, 2008 10:26 AM

Charlie's dad..

Where have I been? I have been living in the real world, something that you apparently know little about.

Trust me, the Iraqi, Iranian and other people of the world will be pleased to know that you and yours intend to stay in the USA. Their other wish is that the other 150,000 American troops and another another 100,000 contractors (many like you) troops would join you in the USA.

Stop being so condescending Charlie, you don't know anything about Iraq or Iran, you are a typical elitist American. In fact I doubt that you know or care anything about the condtions that some individuals are living under in America!

And please don't poison your kid with your negative propaganda or he might turn out to be as naive as his dad appears to be!

Posted by: The Rev | May 2, 2008 10:15 AM

//Hopefully, our first female President...\\ -The Rev

Hopefully, it won't be Hillary.

Posted by: Plainfacto | May 2, 2008 9:54 AM

Rev,

Where have you been for the lat 25+ years? You can't compare living conditions for the average citizen of Iraq, Iran, and especially North Korea to that of the US.

This not to say the US is perfect though. Our public schools are a mess especially in
low income areas. You need to go to a high income school systems to see where everyone else thinks they are. Public higher ed in many cases has its share of problems. If you want to say it is about money you would be right. Too much pay for too little work. Get your pension and retire early.

So the US is not a perfect place REV but far better for you and I then almost any country on this earth.

Good bye Iran. You need to go now.

Posted by: Charlie's Dad | May 2, 2008 6:34 AM

War with Iran will have very different results than war with Iraq. Ignore the few Iranians complaining about "human rights" and "jobs" and "economy" etc. etc., these are regarded as traitors and misfits of the Irania society and often they are cowards and western-loving desparate soles. Iranians will retaliate and retaliate harshly they will. There are also millions of Iranians living in US, and if US attacks Iran, I think you should let your imagination run and consider that at least some will be angry and retaliate inside US. This would not be hard to imagine since Foreign Policy Digest has rated Iran as one of the most nationalistic nations with 70% or Iranians deeply patriatic. They are in US and living among us. Also, expect oil at about $10 per gallon for you car/SUV for quite sometime, as well as hatrated for US for .. ummm - forever by Iranians. All of this can be avoided if US changes its attitude and Iran will no longer feel threatend by US since the Islamic Government came into power. Finally, if you want to pay attention to what a few Iranian traitors are saying about Iran, well remember Chalibi? the US listened to him and now 6th year of war inside Iraq. Listen to the Iranian traitors and scaremongers, and another decade of war with Iran. America's supremacy will come to an end because it will not have the resources for war with Iran. Russia will be the beneficiary with oil at $250 per barral. Then COMES THE LATE WISDOM ... Soviets/Russia lost the battle but won the war.

Posted by: Joshua | May 2, 2008 2:51 AM

==BTW, is George Bush overrated!==

Maybe not anymore:

-------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON DC (CNN) -- A new poll suggests that President Bush is the most unpopular president in modern American history.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Thursday indicates that 71 percent of the American public disapprove of how Bush is handling his job as president.

"No president has ever had a higher disapproval rating in any CNN or Gallup Poll; in fact, this is the first time that any president's disapproval rating has cracked the 70 percent mark," said Keating Holland, CNN's polling director.
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http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/01/bush.poll/index.html
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Posted by: Dimitry | May 2, 2008 12:32 AM

Who cares, the more important topic at hand is if the Wizards will beat the Cavaliers tomorrow.

Joe,

That depends on Colin Powell, will he show up at the game or not. He seems to be happier now that he is no longer a Bushtanista!

The Cavs are shaky! BTW, is George Bush overrated!

Posted by: The Rev | May 1, 2008 10:40 PM

Charlie, my wife and I will continue to live here in the US because I hear living in Iraq, Iran, and North Korea sucks .

Common US Citizen and Charlie's Dad.

Don't always go by what you hear, many individuals say that American cities are the worst, like New York, however, 8 million people in the NY area can't be wrong.

With respect to Iraq, Iran and North Korea, the citizens of those countries (roughly 100 million) seem to be as happy with their countries as you are with America.

And, America must be happy as well, given that we keep paying those countries visits!

BTW will you admit that America has done a lot wrong in the past 6 years? Let's see now, for fifty years we have been embargoing Cuba - they must have WMDs stockpiled there!

Your son will likely trump his dad when it comes to seeing the world without blinders - don't propagandize him too much, tell him both sides of the story!

Posted by: The Rev | May 1, 2008 10:35 PM

Replace "Iran" with "North Korea" in Arkin's blog. The same 'facts' listed by Arkin can be applied to NK. Using Arkin's reasoning, I guess we're on the verge of war against NK too.

Sven Ortmann comments are spot on. And Arkin's unabashed speculation is irresponsible. Probably why he's only a blogger, and not a legitimate journalist on the WP staff.

Posted by: Frank | May 1, 2008 10:16 PM

==What if Iran stopped deveoping a nuclear bomb in 2003 because they were done and now they need the enriched uranium to make them work?==

Developing a nuclear bomb is not like setting up a woodworking shop in your basement. The required infrastructure, the powerplant needed, special handling facilities are bulky, nasty, need constant maintenance and are near-impossible to hide. DPRK couldn't - and they are far less open than Iran.

It is not great secret that what Iran wants is deterrence through knowledge and industrial support infrastructure. The mastery of the fuel cycle is the hard part to figure out. Once done and maintained, you gain a rapid break out capability, perfectly legal under the NPT, if you leave it with appropriate notice.

Israel and the US, both armed very well with all kinds of nuclear weapons and delivery systems don't like it - it is nice to have a monopoly on instant destruction of any nation on the planet. However, Iran's actions are legal. In order to stop them we would have to attack a nation which has not attacked us and has not broken their international obligation that has put them in breach of the NPT.

We just did that to Iraq, which was doubly compounded by the fact that they did not even have a civilian nuclear program. Most people realize that it was a stupid thing to have done. Why would you want to do that to a country three times Iraq's size, with no better legal justification and incalculable negative effects as a result?

Posted by: Dimitry | May 1, 2008 9:48 PM

Dear The Rev,

Has the US ever done anything right internationally in the last 50 years? Protecting western Europe from communism?

We have enough problems in our own country to fix but most of the time nothing gets done. The bridge to nowhere, Boston firefighters abusing the pension system, and of course the tax system.

Its a machine and it runs virtually on its own. We would need massive regime change in this country to get on the right track. What the right track is though is the question and who determines that track is another.

The US is what the US has become over 232 years like it or not. Learn to deal with it or you get nothing from it that the US doesn't want you to have.

Iran is doing more then buiding a bomb and needs to be dealt with sooner then later. How it gets done is left up to those in charge of the machine. Anyone know who they are?

Charlie, my wife and I will continue to live here in the US because I hear living in Iraq, Iran, and North Korea sucks and almost always has for the common citizen.

Common US Citizen and Charlie's Dad.


Posted by: Charlie's Dad | May 1, 2008 7:57 PM

Although I am Iranian,I know your government better than you.
Bush does not decide in America nor will clinton,obama(cleric hossein),...

Posted by: | May 1, 2008 7:12 PM

I am Iranian,living in tehran.
Why our dictator regime is only interested in branches of science that is used in making bomb and forgotting the other branches.
This regime could not make a steam power plant but wants to build nuclear fuel.
Isn't progress in oil and gas technologies more useful for forth oil exporter?
You only thinck about yourself.
you buy oil from this regime.you make money for nuclear fuel.you don't say anything about human rights in Iran.you only think about oil price,american soilder life,...?
we will destroy this regime if you don't give them money(oil buying),gun,missile,...
but this regime was very helpful to show world that how the real Islam looks like.

Posted by: | May 1, 2008 7:08 PM

Who cares, the more important topic at hand is if the Wizards will beat the Cavaliers tomorrow.

Posted by: Joe | May 1, 2008 7:07 PM

I am Iranian,living in tehran.
Why our dictator regime is only interested in branches of science that is used in making bomb and forgotting the other branches.
This regime could not make a steam power plant but wants to build nuclear fuel.
Isn't progress in oil and gas technologies more useful for forth oil exporter?
You only thinck about yourself.
you buy oil from this regime.you make money for nuclear fuel.you don't say anything about human rights in Iran.you only think about oil price,american soilder life,...?
we will destroy this regime if you don't give them money(oil buying),gun,missile,...
but this regime was very helpful to show world that how the real Islam looks like.

Posted by: ali | May 1, 2008 7:06 PM

What if Iran stopped deveoping a nuclear bomb in 2003...?

Charlie's Dad

What if Iran stopped developing a nuclear bomb period, it still wouldn't make a difference. The USA has been interferring in the affairs of Iran all of the way back to the 50's (we took over where England left off).

Even if Iran proved, completely, that they had abandoned any interest in nuclear technologiesm, the USA would still be harassing them - as long as we have male leaders.

For example: None of these nations or territories had bombs and look what we did and are doing to them: Hawaii, Cuba, Nicaragua, Guatamala, Iraq, the DPRK... shall I go on.

Someday Americans will wake up and recognize that we have historically been an evil broker (America has been the terrorist nation), Second, we will never have peace as long our policy is: yes, we did it, but we have the power - and what are you going to do about it?

America uses a similar ruse everywhere it goes - they are trying to get the bomb, never considering how other nations feel knowing that invasionist and hegemonistic America has the bomb (and has used it).

Posted by: The Rev | May 1, 2008 6:56 PM

What if Iran stopped deveoping a nuclear bomb in 2003 because they were done and now they need the enriched uranium to make them work?

Posted by: Charlie's Dad | May 1, 2008 6:40 PM

"Just look at the facts:

* The Iraq war itself is winding down, just as the Cold War was winding down in 1990."

Wow, a one-time analogy. How impressive.
Btw, did you ever check how difficult the logistical situation of the troops in Afghanistan is and how important logistics are for the military?
The main supply route goes through Pakistan's tribal border region.

"* Tehran is continuing to develop nuclear weapons."

Not proved, and seriously; who cares? If it's such a problem for the Israelis, they'd act on their own. They actually have submarines that can easily be used for cruise missile strikes.

"* Iran has now been designated terrorism's No. 1 ally,"

And is an opponent of AQ.

"* An increasingly active covert action program exists with Iranian expatriate "democratic" groups, monarchists, and a wide variety of self-interested scoundrels to foment regime change in Tehran."

I am quite sure that this program exists since 29 years. Similar activity on a grander scale exists against Cuba, since about 50 years.

"* The U.S. military continues to build war plans for Iran,"

I bet they have also plans to invade Japan, the UK, Norway ... so what? War gaming and planning is what they're supposed to do in peacetime and when staffs are in wartime, but not engaged in hot ops. It's their job.

The situation is too difficult as long as there's a major conflict in Iraq.
And as I expect this conflict to end unfavorably, I also expect that the enthusiasm about attacks on Iran as well as the degree of attention and focus on additional adventures will be far below the critical threshold.

Btw; it's illegal in international law according to U.N. charter to threaten other nations with military action without U.N. approval.

Posted by: Sven Ortmann | May 1, 2008 5:20 PM

I was watching a PBS special on the invasion of Okinawa recently, and I was surprised to find out that we had 40 carriers supporting that landing. We started the war in the Pacific with three carriers, witch, at times, was reduced to one early in the war. In four years, because of our industrial infrastructure, we built a navy that could not be defeated. We have been in Iraq for five years, and we barely have our head above water.
We have an Administration, that supports multinational corporations and give tax breaks to the wealthy, but, turns the military into wage slaves, so they could conduct this war on the cheap. Finally, among other things, they turn the military's logistics over to corporate interests which drives the cost of this war through the roof. Our industrial base has been outsourced, and we don't have a proper army. How are we supposed to successfully invade any country, when our military is not properly supported or fully manned. Like Iraq, I oppose any invasion of Iran. As threats, Iraq and Iran exists largely in the minds of the Administration and Congress. We don't live in the Middle East, and their differences over religion do not exist in the U.S., thanks to the 1st. Amendment. These people need a brain!

Posted by: P. J. Casey | May 1, 2008 5:07 PM

Posted by: Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves | May 1, 2008 4:09 PM

To all the Iranian loving leftists, explain to me why Iran had blueprints on how to make both a nuclear warhead and to miniaturize that on a missile...why are they extending their missile ranges to 3000 km....You do us all a dis-service by protecting Iran and castigating the US...get a life!

Posted by: Steve | May 1, 2008 3:22 PM

The comparison between Iran - 2009 & Iraq 2003 or 1990 is totally irrelevant!
"Short of Iran invading one of its neighbors or attacking U.S. forces in some obvious and gross way ... " On what basis do you take this as a fact for your 'analysis' or 'vision' if you will?! How have you acquired the metaphysical capability to predict such unseen "obvious" signs?!
Iran has neither initiated a war within the past 3 centuries, nor has ever threatened any of its neighbors to an invasion. If you want to cling to the late sexy fad of "Israeli Destruction Remark" by Ahmadinejad, then you better know that the lunatic guy never really said that Iran is going to invade Israel; it was just a dumb disgusting propaganda like that of the famous "death to America" slogan which has been repeated for the past 30 years and merely means anything. If you have not noticed, Tehran never launched an attack against U.S within the three decades of wishing for its "death"! But well, the white house hawkies needed a nemesis any how, and the media once more came on its rescue mission to serve the power and polished the stupid remarks. And for that matter, you'd better note what our Israeli pals have been saying about Iran. It is pretty ironic how their threats do not entertain the media.
And by the way, neither the IAEA nor NIE have found any proof of Iran's nuclear "weapon" program.
Feeding such false data into the heads of millions of Americans might had been useful to manipulate once... That time has passed. The luxury is lost.
Sorry, but the times they are a changin'!

Posted by: Niusha | May 1, 2008 3:22 PM

"The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) had warned that, should the USA use nuclear weapons in Iran, of say 1 megaton yield, it would kill 3 million people in Iran and another 35 million will die of radiation fallout in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Hot, dry air, blowing from arid-plains of Iran, Afghanistan will carry radioactive dust into the Indian sub-continent, and blow right across the northern Gangetic plains. It is important that readers watch the animation carefully, copy it and circulate to as many friends as they can. The animation is here:

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/nuclear_weapons/nuclear-bunker-buster-rnep-animation.html"

Source, with more: http://watchingamerica.com/News/921/time-to-warn-the-us-against-war-on-iran/

Posted by: Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves | May 1, 2008 3:21 PM

i know its crazy

Posted by: Josh | May 1, 2008 2:34 PM

For uncensored news please bookmark:

www.wsws.org
www.onlinejournal.com
www.globalresearch.ca
www.takingaimradio.com

http://www.billionairesforbush.com/candidate.php

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We love George's tax cuts! They mean trillions for us and tidbits for everyone else. Better still, they've left Americans with a crippling debt that their children will be paying back to us (guess who loaned Bush the money for a tax cut?!) for years to come while the Government slashes social security, education and health care to avoid going bankrupt. Read more...

Investment: $200 million to Bush's 2000 election campaign
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The health of Americans is important to us. In fact, it's worth about $1.6 trillion a year! And now George is helping us make even more money from this booming business. He's protecting our profits by barring cheaper drugs from abroad, while his new Medicare bill guarantees that the government can't negotiate bulk drug prices from our companies. Read more...

Investment: $44 million in Drug Company donations to Republicans since 2000
Return: $139 billion in additional Drug Company profits over 8 years
Percent Return: 315,900%


Defense Contracting

Most Presidents keep our Defense Contractors happy, but George is special. He's increased the defence budget, turned over lucrative government services to our companies and topped it all by destroying Iraq with our most expensive bombs and then paying us to re-build it! So while America gets more wars, less money for social programs, families and the future, we get $250 billion! Read more...

Investment: $23.5 million in Defense Contractors' donations since 2000 to Republicans
Return: Approximately $251 billion
Percent Return: 1,068,000%


Energy

George is an oil man, Cheney is an oil man. We're all oil men! From Kyoto to Iraq, George has ensured that whether it's global warming or global peace, our profits come first. He even let us write his new energy bill and give ourselves $30 billion of your money in new subsidies. Read more...

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Return: $30 billion
Percent Return: 27,778%


Workers' Overtime Coverage

Overtime pay may keep millions of families afloat, but it sure costs us a lot of money! That's why George has fought the whining public and the Congress to remove 8 million workers' right to overtime pay, potentially saving us $1.9billion a year, forever! Read more...

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Percent Return: 31,667% per year


Media Consolidation

George knows the value of having media that'll make him look good, and we know the value of controlling what you think (and of making $billions doing it). Again, George has stood alone against a public outcry, a bi-partisan Congress and the foundations of America's democracy to ensure that our mega-media corporations can get even bigger. Read more...

Investment: $25.7 million from media corps to Republicans since 2000
Return: Control over what every American thinks and buys -- priceless


Environment

Once, governments fought to protect your health and preserve the environment for your children. Maybe they just didn't appreciate how much money could be made? But George does. He's undone decades of terrible, anti-Billionaire policies and fought hard for our rights to make billions polluting the air, endangering health and wrecking the natural world. Read more...


Iraq War

For years our "Bomb the Arabs and Steal Their Oil!" bumper sticker has gone unheeded. That is, until George came along. The Middle East has been a constant irritation to us Billionaires for decades. Finally we've gone in and taken control. WMD, human rights, whatever. We've got the oil and that means serious money. Dead US soldiers, dead Iraqis, enraged Muslim world, increased terrorist threats? As long as our profit margins are healthy, we'll make it through. Read more...


Posted by: che | May 1, 2008 2:30 PM

Hopefully, our first female President will ignore political punditry, and the American old boyz ways of doing things!

If she were to, she will seek to resolve differences between the United States and the following: Muslims and Arabs, Iran, thirty other nations of the world, our allies, the UN and the Rev - then we all can live in peace! The boyz love to fight!

It takes a woman to do a man's job!

Posted by: The Rev | May 1, 2008 2:08 PM

"Tehran is continuing to develop nuclear weapons."

Really? Wow -- you should go tell the IAEA that since after 5 years of intensive investigations, they keep saying that they have no such evidence.

Here's a "parallel our Iraq history" that you missed: complicit, cowardly, hypocritical media commentators that helped lie us into one war and are trying to do so again by repeating baseless government propaganda about "WMDs"

Posted by: hass | May 1, 2008 2:01 PM

Dedicated to "all the nice people at NATO"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5pgrKSwFJE

Posted by: Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves | May 1, 2008 1:16 PM

Sorry Dimitry,

The great experiment is over. The Constitution has failed. We're living in a fascist state and the people have no control over our government.

Posted by: Bob | May 1, 2008 1:11 PM

Sure Bill... If you want war in the streets of the US between the American people and it's government.

Don't doubt that for a second.
It has recent historical precedence.

It only took 2, count 'em 2 years, from 1967 to 1969, for the US anti-war movement to move from peaceful demonstrations to street riots throughout America when we elected a president who was SUPPOSED TO end the war... NiXon, but instead carpet-bombed the North in an attempt to force western economic hegemony on them even as our soldiers were being withdrawn.

The US has not been the same since then.

DO NOT EVER DOUBT that a war with Iran will unleash that sort of fury in the US again.

Personally, I'm 40 years older, and ALOT more dangerous in a streetfight, or a politician's office, than when I was 14.

Ditto for 10s of thousands of potentially horrified American patriots.

Then the US government will get to try out their nasty little police state they've been practicing since 9/11... and your much talked about UAVs on the American population.

The GWOT, if it's not obvious by now, WAS intended to terrorize and suppress the US population and NEVER intended to end global terrorism by non-state players.

Bringin' the war home will have a new meaning then Arkin.

Which side will YOU be on when the next batch of outright lies get told?


Posted by: Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves | May 1, 2008 1:10 PM

==Tehran is continuing to develop nuclear weapons.==

There is no credible evidence for this statement, continuously being made by our government at all. Nada. IAEA will not state it. There has been no diversion of any "special" material into a military program, which according to the CIA, simply doesn't exist today. Yet political leaders in this country continue to lie, against a preponderance of evidence to the contrary, with the lies often repeated by gullible media. Just like Iraq. Check.

What is astonishing, is that the national amnesia of our vaunted "security establishment" appears to be near complete, even outpacing the notorious amnesia of the American people as a whole, which is legendary.

I would agree that even if Bush doesn't start the war with Iran in the next several months, either McCain or HRC would do so - they have essentially promised it. Obama, now a long shot for the presidency, appears to be the only candidate who actually plans to resolve the problems we have with Iran through peaceful means.

Posted by: Dimitry | May 1, 2008 12:32 PM

==But there is clearly an accumulating sense in the Pentagon and the national security community, both inside and outside government, that war with Iran may be in the future.==

Too bad the American people, who are supposed to be in control of our government are dead set against such a war, which like the glorious war with Iraq, appears to be based on the exactly the same political propaganda, fear-mongering, innuendo and dubious reading of our national security needs.

But like Chenney said: "So?"

Posted by: Dimitry | May 1, 2008 12:23 PM

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